Richmond Preview (long)

[DanHawkPella]

Posted this in the Lounge, but thought I'd share here - fairly long though!


Watched a couple of games on Youtube (Dayton, Davidson from their conference tournament) and reviewed team and individual stats from Sports Reference here.

Good team summaries on stats can also be found here if you want to use them for brackets: https://barttorvik.com/#

First of all, team notes:

Games of note (deleted less notable wins to avoid being too long):

Date	Location	Opponent	W/L	Tm	Opp
Fri, Nov 12, 2021	N	Utah State	L	74	85
Sat, Nov 20, 2021	@	Drake	L	70	73
Thu, Nov 25, 2021	N	Maryland	L	80	86
Sat, Nov 27, 2021	N	Mississippi State	L	71	82
Sun, Dec 5, 2021	@	Northern Iowa	W	60	52
Fri, Dec 17, 2021	N	NC State	W	83	74
Thu, Dec 30, 2021		Saint Joseph's	L	56	83
Sun, Jan 2, 2022	@	Saint Louis	L	69	76
Fri, Jan 14, 2022		Davidson	L	84	87
Sat, Jan 29, 2022		Virginia Commonwealth	L	62	64
Fri, Feb 18, 2022	@	Virginia Commonwealth	L	57	77
Tue, Mar 1, 2022		Dayton	L	53	55
Sat, Mar 12, 2022	N	Dayton	W	68	64
Sun, Mar 13, 2022	N	Davidson	W	64	62

• Drake beat them by 3 at home
• UNI lost to them at home (not sure UNI had their full roster)
• Maryland beat them by 6 on a neutral court
• Mississippi State lost to them by 11 on a neutral court
• NC State lost to them by 9 on a neutral court
• Dayton beat them at their place by 2, then lost to them by 4 (tournament semi-finals)
• Davidson beat them by 3 on a neutral court, then lost to them by 2 on a neutral court (tournament finals)

They had a couple of bad road losses, but overall have been very competitive in their league and against other solid mid-majors or mid-level P5 teams.

Davidson is in the NCAA Tournament and Dayton was one of the first teams out.

For Team Statistics:

▼Team	2P%	3P%	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
Richmond	.522	.337	.725	7.5	24.8	32.3	14.7	7.9	2.3	9.8	13.9	71.7
Richmond Rank	101st	191st	154th	323rd	223rd	307th	69th	57th	305th	348th	341st	158th
Opponent Rank	210th	230th	226th	136th	268th	230th	290th	42nd	173rd	199th	78th	155th
Opponent	.500	.343	.723	9.3	26.1	35.4	12.5	5.4	3.1	12.9	15.5	68.3

I've highlighted some key items where they rank good or bad:

• They do not foul much (PF) or allow teams to shoot a lot of fouls shots (FTA Opponents)
• They have a high assist rate (they run a 5 out Princeton style offense which relies more on cutting and passing than isolation)
• They don't turn the ball over (don't let opponents get steals either) and they get a lot of steals themselves - in particular their 5'9" PG.
• They are not a good rebounding team, despite having a 6'7", 6'7" and 6'10" front line
• They are not a good rim protecting team either

On KenPom, their Adj Offense ranks 69 (Good), Adj Defensive ranks 101 (solid), and Pace/Tempo is 191 (average). For reference Iowa is 2nd, 77th and 52nd.

More on players in next post.

 

[DanHawkPella]

Team Roster (main players):

Player	#	Class	Pos	Height	Weight	Summary
Tyler Burton	3	JR	F	6-7	215	16.3 Pts, 7.7 Reb, 1.0 Ast
Grant Golden	33	SR	F	6-10	255	14.1 Pts, 6.1 Reb, 2.8 Ast
Jacob Gilyard	0	SR	G	5-9	160	13.3 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 5.4 Ast
Nathan Cayo	4	SR	F	6-7	225	8.7 Pts, 4.4 Reb, 1.9 Ast
Nick Sherod	5	SR	G	6-4	230	6.2 Pts, 1.9 Reb, 0.3 Ast
Matt Grace	15	SR	F	6-9	230	4.1 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 1.1 Ast
Andre Gustavson	22	SR	G	6-4	195	4.5 Pts, 2.4 Reb, 1.2 Ast
Isaiah Wilson	21	SO	G	6-0	160	2.5 Pts, 1.2 Reb, 0.7 Ast

Basic statistical overview:

Player	MP ▼	2P%	3P%	FT%	ORB	DRB	TRB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	PTS
Jacob Gilyard	38.5	.455	.364	.854	0.5	2.9	3.4	5.4	3.1	0.2	1.6	1.5	13.3
Tyler Burton	32.7	.520	.377	.800	1.5	6.2	7.7	1.0	1.1	0.5	1.6	1.8	16.3
Grant Golden	27.7	.575	.288	.707	0.9	5.1	6.1	2.8	0.5	0.5	2.0	1.6	14.1
Nathan Cayo	26.3	.542		.484	1.5	2.9	4.4	1.9	0.5	0.4	1.2	2.5	8.7
Andre Gustavson	24.5	.449	.327	.703	0.5	1.9	2.4	1.2	1.2	0.2	0.8	1.8	4.5
Nick Sherod	15.5	.305	.348	.778	0.3	1.6	1.9	0.3	0.4	0.0	0.3	0.9	6.2
Isaiah Wilson	15.5	.390	.243	.621	0.2	1.0	1.2	0.7	0.6	0.0	0.9	2.0	2.5
Matt Grace	15.2	.591	.298	.857	0.8	1.7	2.5	1.1	0.5	0.5	0.5	1.3	4.1

Advanced Stats:

Player	PER	eFG%	3PAr	FTr	ORB%	DRB%	TRB%	AST%	STL%	BLK%	TOV%	WS/40	BPM
Jacob Gilyard	20.3	.516	.668	.259	1.6	8.9	5.3	26.9	4.8	0.5	11.7	.165	7.4
Tyler Burton	22.7	.537	.374	.487	5.4	22.3	13.9	6.5	1.9	1.7	10.3	.177	4.8
Grant Golden	22.2	.545	.206	.255	4.1	22.0	13.1	24.1	1.0	2.0	13.9	.148	5.1
Nathan Cayo	15.3	.542	.000	.388	7.0	12.8	9.9	14.4	1.2	1.5	12.9	.110	0.3
Andre Gustavson	9.4	.469	.500	.378	2.4	9.3	5.9	8.3	2.8	0.8	15.4	.074	1.1
Nick Sherod	12.2	.464	.732	.082	2.0	12.4	7.2	4.5	1.6	0.0	3.8	.071	-0.8
Matt Grace	14.8	.496	.656	.164	6.1	13.4	9.7	13.4	2.0	3.5	12.1	.116	3.5
Isaiah Wilson	3.0	.378	.474	.372	1.7	7.4	4.6	7.9	2.3	0.2	24.0	.006	-5.8

A few takeaways from these:

1. They are not a deep team - Matt Grace may be the most effective off the bench
2. Very reliant on Gilyard and Burton as shown by their minutes per game, WS/40 and BPM
3. Gilyard attempts 2/3 of his shots from 3 (3PAr) - if he drives (think Mugsy Bogues) he is looking to dish it
4. Burton is the best all around player - perimeter shooter, mid range, near the rim, and defensive rebounder, He gets to the FT line the most (FTr)

 

[DanHawkPella]

My take on their key players:

PG GILYARD

• Small, super quick guard. Catalyst for their team. Faster than Joe T on the break. Loves to poke the ball loose after defensive rebounds - gets a lot of steals. Likes to shoot the 3, and when driving is most likely to dish the ball to whomever was freed up by help defense. Can blow by most defenders. Bigs coming over to block his shot need to realize he senses this and will always pass in that situation, so they should play the pass instead of committing to the block and leaving their feet. Tough matchup for Bohannon - Perkins (height to deter 3's), Joe T or Ulis likely would have to guard him.

SG BURTON

• Their best player - plays bigger than his roster size (see his rebounds). Good shooter from all ranges and can score inside at well. Gets to the FT line a lot on drives. Like a shorter, more athletic Bobby Hansen. Would be good to foul him out. Perkins would also be good on him. If they beat Iowa, it will be due to him or Gilyard so their small guards are the key to this one.

C GOLDEN

• Not a traditional post although good sized (Kreiner sized). Not a great rebounder and a horrible shot blocker (17 blocks on the season). Doesn't shoot outside 15-17 feet. However, moves fairly well and is a great passer. Second on the team in assists because in their offense anytime he gets it on the perimeter he is looking to pass to cutters (give and go, back cuts off of dribble handoff action, etc) or pass high-low to someone posting up if they have an advantage after the cut. Defenders need to sag off of him and help in the passing lane. When posting up wants to walk you down low and shoot the right handed hook - not a lot of post moves. Mostly a perimeter player, but a key player as a lot of the action runs through him (or Gilyard).

PF CAYO

• Doesn't shoot from outside 12 feet. Wants to post you up and get within 6 feet for a right handed hook. Used on the perimeter as a passer for cutters much like Golden, so his defender should sag off and help with passing lanes.

SF SHERROD

• Not much of a 3 point shooter (29%) - looks to mainly take smaller guards inside and use his body to get closer shots.

MY FINAL TAKE:

• Defensively they play man to man mostly with a full court press at times. Given the pace we play at, and their bench, not sure they will want to turn it into a track meet despite their quick guards. We are a lot deeper than them.
• I don't see them matching up well with us defensively - we can spread them out and their short guards allow us to shoot over them easily. Will need to take care of the ball on offense, but their bigs can't handle the Murray's and their guards will struggle with Perkins and Patrick. Would like to see us attack the rim early and get them in foul trouble.
• Defensively we can put Perkins on Burton, but we may need to play Bohannon less and Joe T more in order to contain Gilyard who can drive at will and shoot over Bohannon. He plays 38.5 mpg so would love for Joe T to get him in foul trouble by driving and using his strength advantage. Bohannon can shoot over him, but can't guard him at all - could play zone when Bohannon is in the game perhaps.
• Defensively our bigs need to be VERY disciplined when guarding their bigs on the perimeter, due to their passing to cutters. We should sag and play passing lanes. When they do dribble handoffs the guards can't overplay their person or they will back cut for layups. How we handle screen and rolls and dribble hand offs by bigs will be very important in practice this week. BACK CUTS will be the problem for us. Wonder how they would handle a zone, though.
• I would use our length to pass over any 3/4 court pressure they apply - don't want to dribble on Gilyard too much. Need to protect the ball on rebounds as he likes to sneak in and poke balls out.

Iowa 92, Richmond 77, after leading by 6 at halftime.

Bench depth and length does them in probably.

 

[Chishawk1425]

We need to start off strong and assert ourselves early. If it is nip and tuck into the 2nd half look out. They are a smart, veteran team.

 

[BrewHawk]

If I'm them, I'm running us off the three point line, making us drive the ball and then look to draw charges at the inside arc. I don't think Iowa can be slowed down on offense right now, especially if Rutgers couldn't do it. If I'm them, I'm doing everything I can to get Keegan in foul trouble early.

As usual, the key will be defense and rebounding. We do those two things at an average level and we win going away.

Agree with the 92-77 score prediction entirely. Outliers would be a slower 70-60 type game or we go hog wild and blow them out 95-70.

 

[Greenway4Prez]

How do they compare to the Davidson squad we played in the first round years ago?

 

[SI_NYC]

I’d like to see Iowa go big with Perkins at the point and post up Gilyard, over and over.

 

[BrewHawk]

I’d like to see Iowa go big with Perkins at the point and post up Gilyard, over and over.

Gilyard will likely be on Bohannon and won't let him breathe.

 

[unoHawkeye]

Gilyard will likely be on Bohannon and won't let him breathe.

But if Bohannon can pull the NCAA all time steals leader away from the lane, it will open up a ton for the Murray’s, Pat, and Perkins to drive and score without having their pockets picked

 

[jonesy5960]

Gilyard will likely be on Bohannon and won't let him breathe.

Is he their defensive stopper?

 

[SI_NYC]

Gilyard will likely be on Bohannon and won't let him breathe.

Yes of course. I meant when JBo is out and Perkins is the smallest player in for Iowa.

 

[nu2u]

Gilyard is a world class thief. He set the NCAA career steal record back in December and has added several more every game since (more than 400 total). Capitalize and bold face that in the scouting report.

 

[BBHawk]

Gilyard is a world class thief. He set the NCAA career steal record back in December and has added several more every game since (more than 400 total). Capitalize and bold face that in the scouting report.

Run that sucker through every screen imaginable. He'll eventually get worn out or foul out.

 

[nu2u]

Run that sucker through every screen imaginable. He'll eventually get worn out or foul out.

I'm guessing other teams have tried that. OP said he is good at stripping bigs,... something Toussaint is getting better at also. What else did you see @DanHawkPella? Also, thanks for the breakdown!

 

[DanHawkPella]

I'm guessing other teams have tried that. OP said he is good at stripping bigs,... something Toussaint is getting better at also. What else did you see @DanHawkPella? Also, thanks for the breakdown!

Didn't see enough to tell if anyone tried, but that is a lot of minutes and if Wisconsin were playing them I am sure he would get posted up by their guards 5-10 times because they feature that. Iowa doesn't do that very much.

The steals I saw were when guys had the ball in two hands, not open court stealing your dribble faced up 1 on 1. So I think his steals could be when people are unaware he is around them or when they turn and face him like in that one clip. If you face him with the ball at waist level, he will try to strip it, or if you get a rebound and turn to outlet the ball with the ball below your chin, he will try to strip it. I assume if you drive the ball into the paint he will help and do the same, but not sure how many steals he will get if Bohannon is just bringing the ball up the court 1 on 1.

I do think with Joe T that we could do some things to work him over. Ulis' ball handling is a bit more sketchy so that may be a problem. It would be great for Joe T to have a good game because I'd be 100% sure we'd win if that happened. But he could get early fouls against Gilyard and then some of our plans may not work.

 

[DanHawkPella]

St. Joseph's beat Richmond by 27 so I pulled that video.

My take:

1. They aren't a good rebounding team, so pushing the ball inside to the post or off the drive is best. Short shots = short rebounds, where we can punish them. Long shots = long rebounds, so what would be bad is to shoot a lot of 3's and have a poor 3 point shooting game.

2. Watch how St. Joes defends them - the posts sag way off their bigs once they get more than 15 feet away from the bucket. This allows them to help on back cuts. It gives up some 15 foot jumpers on the high pick and roll but that may be ok. They also don't try to deny on the wings, and so the back cuts aren't there. If you just allow Richmond to pass to the wing its much better than trying to deny it - they back door ALL THE TIME.

 

[BrewHawk]

They remind me a lot of how Northwestern used to play (under Carmody).

 

[Nagarunja]

Does their offense revolve around a deep post big man? No? Ok, not terribly concerned then.

 

[sober_teacher]

We need to start off strong and assert ourselves early. If it is nip and tuck into the 2nd half look out. They are a smart, veteran team.

yeah, this is what usually seems like the general recipe for an upset…let the lower seed hang around. Would be awesome if they can pull off a northwestern-style start and make Richmond chase the game. Feels like this could be another crazy tourney so avoiding a slow start would be nice.

that was what doomed us in that NW State game in ‘06…we we’re demonstrably better but we let them hang around all game long.

 

[BrewHawk]

that was what doomed us in that NW State game in ‘06…we we’re demonstrably better but we let them hang around all game long.

We were up by 17 with 8 minutes to go.

 

[HawkLogic]

We were up by 17 with 8 minutes to go.

Seems like Iowa B-ball fans mostly get to exit the NCAA tourney in 1 of two ways

1) Either get blown out in 1st 5 minutes...not even a contest.... Cincinnati under Alford, Gonzaga, Villanova, Oregon under Fran

2) They dominate and get 15 pt type lead, and then blow it in 2nd half playing not to Lose....UNLV under Tom Davis or NW Lousiana under Alford.

There have been some outliers like Iowa failed comeback vs Tennessee that I think we lost in OT under Fran.
I don't remember Davis last Ncaa vs Uconn, but I think iowa played them tough, just lost to eventual champion.

Getting blown out leaves one more disgruntled on overall program competiive status...choking in 2nd half is more painful....and losing close game/OT game is more like a kick in the nutz after getting your hopes up.

I don't see this current team getting blown out and more likely a kick in the nutz is how they exit. Hopefully the
exit is after a long run.

 

[sober_teacher]

We were up by 17 with 8 minutes to go.

Right, it was the story of the game. We’d go on a run, get up double-digits, then they’d go on a counter-run that kept the game within reach. We let them hang around and failed to pull away.

 

[JupiterHawk]

 

[SivHawk]

Press conference Interview with Iowa basketball players about the game against Richmond. Fast forward around 2 hours 15 minutes.

 

[Louis3Hawk]

View embedded media

I don't like being the trendy pick, I don't like it at all..

 

[BrewHawk]

I don't like being the trendy pick, I don't like it at all..

Yeah, I wish we weren't good so that there weren't any expectations.

 

[MonmouthHawk]

Great work as always Dan!!! Appreciate it.

 

[QChawks]

Kicked our ass today