This week's docket presents a much different scenario than last week's docket. Lots of interesting games and quite a few have a potential impact on Iowa's post-season options.
Disclaimer: If you are one who is inclined to believe that Iowa will get an invite to the college football playoff picture if it finishes the season 13-0 AND really doesn't care about what bowl Iowa gets invited to if it loses a game or two to finish out the season, then you shouldn't read any further. While I put this out there as a release from my ordinary work day grind, it is intended to look at games that might impact how Iowa is perceived not only by the playoff selection committee but also the Rose and Fiesta Bowl committees. I am 95+% certain that, if Iowa runs the table and beats a #1 ranked and undefeated Ohio State team, Iowa will receive a playoff bid. If Iowa runs the table and beats Michigan State - no matter where MSU is ranked - I'm at about 70% convinced.
Big 10 Games:
Northwestern at Penn State: Quick. Name the team that Iowa has beaten this year that has the most impressive win on its resume. No brainer. Its not Pitt. Its not Wisconsin. Its Northwestern. And, let's face it, of Iowa's opponents to date, Northwestern may have the two best victories on its resume - Stanford and Duke. Penn State just annihilated Illinois, leaving the B1G West with four one-win teams and the B1G East with 4 teams with either zero or one loss. In the B1G hierarchy, it would nice to see a little more balance. Northwestern loses this game and it falls to below .500 in the B1G West but it would still be the third place team. PSU would be 8-2/5-1 and you can hear the "B1G West is Soft Chorus" getting louder. Yep . . . I'm pulling for Northwestern. And, yes, its a SoS "thing." That being written, I don't see Northwestern possessing enough fire power to bring home a win. I think that PSU wins this one pretty easily.
Illinois at Purdue: Not sure that I care much about this one. So, for sake of (1) SoS; (2) having a B1G West team beat a B1G East team and (3) to ensure that Purdue isn't developing a sense of momentum and purpose, I'll be pulling for the Illini. Not what I'd call a "high impact" game on Iowa's future. I'll predict Illinois wins a close game.
Wisconsin at Maryland: Wisconsin, one of Iowa's "signature" wins to date, has a grand total of zero quality wins on its resume. That is why, IMO, Wisconsin is 7-2 and still outside the Top 25. It has lost to Alabama and Iowa and beaten Miami (OH), Troy, Hawaii, Nebraska, Purdue, Illinois and Rutgers. In order for Iowa's 10-6 win over the Badgers to look good, Wisconsin has to keep winning. Yeah, I get the arguments that Iowa benefits from Wisconsin losing but . . . until Iowa drops that first game . . . I'm still looking for "signature" wins on Iowa's resume. Looking at Wisconsin's remaining schedule (Maryland, Northwestern and Minnesota), Iowa's win over Wisconsin looks best if Wisconsin is 10-2. And, I don't see Maryland winning this game.
Michigan State at Nebraska: Nebraska looked awful on Saturday and I loved it . . . except for the fact that it made the B1G West look like a crap division and it only added further fuel to the national narrative that Iowa's schedule down the stretch couldn't be softer. On the one hand, I don't like to root for Nebraska and I don't want them to gain any confidence but, on the other hand, I want MSU to lose not only to OSU but to one other team. If Iowa is the only one-loss B1G team, I'm 99% certain that it will be Rose Bowl bound. I'm far less certain that the Rose Bowl picks Iowa over MSU if both have one loss. At this juncture, I think Iowa can beat Nebraska. Thus, I'm leaning towards rooting for Nebraska to hand MSU its first loss of the year. Do I think it could happen? Sure. Do I anticipate it happening? Nope, not even close. I think that Dantonio's boys issue a beat down this weekend. And the torch-and-pitchforks crowd in Lincoln will continue to grow exponentially.
Minnesota at Ohio State: This is easy. I'm rooting for Ohio State. Iowa's best playoff chances involve beating a #1 and unbeaten Buckeye team. And, even if Iowa were to lose the B1G championship to OSU, the Rose Bowl is a feasible consolation prize. Those are the two year-end prizes. And those prizes are far more attainable if OSU keeps winning. Plus, if OSU delivers a beat down, Minnesota could be pretty demoralized coming into Iowa City. I see OSU winning this game - even without Barrett. And I see them winning big.
Rutgers at Michigan: Parent's Weekend in A2. I'll be there but will find a bar showing the Iowa game after tailgating with my daughter and her fellow UM students. This is the only B1G game that holds zero interest for me. Michigan should win easily. Does not impact Iowa in the least.
Non-B1G:
Notre Dame at Pitt: Speaking of Iowa opponents who don't have a "signature" win on the resume . . . Pitt is one of them. That could change on Saturday night. Pulling hard for Pitt. Not only does it potentially make Iowa's win over Pitt look better, it takes ND out of the playoff discussion. That only inures to Iowa's benefit.
However, I watched Pitt on Thursday. They looked awful. Horrendous. I see ND winning this game by 10-17 points.
FSU at Clemson: Any time an unbeaten can be taken down, we have to root for it. Pulling for the Seminoles on this one. A fair number of prognosticators have suggested that Clemson is a national title contender. If they are unbeaten after the ACC championship game, they are taking one of the four playoff spots. If they lose a game . . . its far from certain that they'll grab a spot - particularly over Iowa if the Hawkeyes are undefeated. I just don't see FSU winning this but it may be a close one.
LSU at Alabama & Arkansas at Ole Miss: Since I'm hoping for the SEC "doomsday" scenario which involves a two loss Ole Miss team playing in SEC championship game, I'm hoping that Ole Miss wins out (including a win over LSU later in the year). If that happens, I guess it really doesn't matter what happens in the LSU/Alabama game. Since I hate all things Saban, I say Geaux Tigers. There is no possible scenario for Alabama to make the playoffs if they lose to LSU, that will bring a smile to my face. However, given that Alabama figures out ways to win and are playing at home, something tells me that the Crimson Tide win this game.
ISU at Oklahoma: For SoS purposes only, I'm pulling for the Cyclones. But I think that Oklahoma will win by at least 24.
Disclaimer: If you are one who is inclined to believe that Iowa will get an invite to the college football playoff picture if it finishes the season 13-0 AND really doesn't care about what bowl Iowa gets invited to if it loses a game or two to finish out the season, then you shouldn't read any further. While I put this out there as a release from my ordinary work day grind, it is intended to look at games that might impact how Iowa is perceived not only by the playoff selection committee but also the Rose and Fiesta Bowl committees. I am 95+% certain that, if Iowa runs the table and beats a #1 ranked and undefeated Ohio State team, Iowa will receive a playoff bid. If Iowa runs the table and beats Michigan State - no matter where MSU is ranked - I'm at about 70% convinced.
Big 10 Games:
Northwestern at Penn State: Quick. Name the team that Iowa has beaten this year that has the most impressive win on its resume. No brainer. Its not Pitt. Its not Wisconsin. Its Northwestern. And, let's face it, of Iowa's opponents to date, Northwestern may have the two best victories on its resume - Stanford and Duke. Penn State just annihilated Illinois, leaving the B1G West with four one-win teams and the B1G East with 4 teams with either zero or one loss. In the B1G hierarchy, it would nice to see a little more balance. Northwestern loses this game and it falls to below .500 in the B1G West but it would still be the third place team. PSU would be 8-2/5-1 and you can hear the "B1G West is Soft Chorus" getting louder. Yep . . . I'm pulling for Northwestern. And, yes, its a SoS "thing." That being written, I don't see Northwestern possessing enough fire power to bring home a win. I think that PSU wins this one pretty easily.
Illinois at Purdue: Not sure that I care much about this one. So, for sake of (1) SoS; (2) having a B1G West team beat a B1G East team and (3) to ensure that Purdue isn't developing a sense of momentum and purpose, I'll be pulling for the Illini. Not what I'd call a "high impact" game on Iowa's future. I'll predict Illinois wins a close game.
Wisconsin at Maryland: Wisconsin, one of Iowa's "signature" wins to date, has a grand total of zero quality wins on its resume. That is why, IMO, Wisconsin is 7-2 and still outside the Top 25. It has lost to Alabama and Iowa and beaten Miami (OH), Troy, Hawaii, Nebraska, Purdue, Illinois and Rutgers. In order for Iowa's 10-6 win over the Badgers to look good, Wisconsin has to keep winning. Yeah, I get the arguments that Iowa benefits from Wisconsin losing but . . . until Iowa drops that first game . . . I'm still looking for "signature" wins on Iowa's resume. Looking at Wisconsin's remaining schedule (Maryland, Northwestern and Minnesota), Iowa's win over Wisconsin looks best if Wisconsin is 10-2. And, I don't see Maryland winning this game.
Michigan State at Nebraska: Nebraska looked awful on Saturday and I loved it . . . except for the fact that it made the B1G West look like a crap division and it only added further fuel to the national narrative that Iowa's schedule down the stretch couldn't be softer. On the one hand, I don't like to root for Nebraska and I don't want them to gain any confidence but, on the other hand, I want MSU to lose not only to OSU but to one other team. If Iowa is the only one-loss B1G team, I'm 99% certain that it will be Rose Bowl bound. I'm far less certain that the Rose Bowl picks Iowa over MSU if both have one loss. At this juncture, I think Iowa can beat Nebraska. Thus, I'm leaning towards rooting for Nebraska to hand MSU its first loss of the year. Do I think it could happen? Sure. Do I anticipate it happening? Nope, not even close. I think that Dantonio's boys issue a beat down this weekend. And the torch-and-pitchforks crowd in Lincoln will continue to grow exponentially.
Minnesota at Ohio State: This is easy. I'm rooting for Ohio State. Iowa's best playoff chances involve beating a #1 and unbeaten Buckeye team. And, even if Iowa were to lose the B1G championship to OSU, the Rose Bowl is a feasible consolation prize. Those are the two year-end prizes. And those prizes are far more attainable if OSU keeps winning. Plus, if OSU delivers a beat down, Minnesota could be pretty demoralized coming into Iowa City. I see OSU winning this game - even without Barrett. And I see them winning big.
Rutgers at Michigan: Parent's Weekend in A2. I'll be there but will find a bar showing the Iowa game after tailgating with my daughter and her fellow UM students. This is the only B1G game that holds zero interest for me. Michigan should win easily. Does not impact Iowa in the least.
Non-B1G:
Notre Dame at Pitt: Speaking of Iowa opponents who don't have a "signature" win on the resume . . . Pitt is one of them. That could change on Saturday night. Pulling hard for Pitt. Not only does it potentially make Iowa's win over Pitt look better, it takes ND out of the playoff discussion. That only inures to Iowa's benefit.
However, I watched Pitt on Thursday. They looked awful. Horrendous. I see ND winning this game by 10-17 points.
FSU at Clemson: Any time an unbeaten can be taken down, we have to root for it. Pulling for the Seminoles on this one. A fair number of prognosticators have suggested that Clemson is a national title contender. If they are unbeaten after the ACC championship game, they are taking one of the four playoff spots. If they lose a game . . . its far from certain that they'll grab a spot - particularly over Iowa if the Hawkeyes are undefeated. I just don't see FSU winning this but it may be a close one.
LSU at Alabama & Arkansas at Ole Miss: Since I'm hoping for the SEC "doomsday" scenario which involves a two loss Ole Miss team playing in SEC championship game, I'm hoping that Ole Miss wins out (including a win over LSU later in the year). If that happens, I guess it really doesn't matter what happens in the LSU/Alabama game. Since I hate all things Saban, I say Geaux Tigers. There is no possible scenario for Alabama to make the playoffs if they lose to LSU, that will bring a smile to my face. However, given that Alabama figures out ways to win and are playing at home, something tells me that the Crimson Tide win this game.
ISU at Oklahoma: For SoS purposes only, I'm pulling for the Cyclones. But I think that Oklahoma will win by at least 24.
