Roster Analysis

[CanadaHawk]

Here's an article posted by Hawkcentral yesterday breaking down minutes as of now.
http://www.hawkcentral.com/story/sp...newcomers-ready-join-hoops-rotation/29864337/

Here's their opinion of the minutes breakdown:
Uthoff: 35
Woody 30
Gesell 28
Jok 25
Clemmons 23
Uhl: 16
Ellingson 12
Fleming 11
Jones 9
Hutton 7
Wagner 4
Baer 0 (qualified by B1G minutes)
Williams RS
Moss?

I think that's more minutes than Fran wants to play Uthoff- around 30-31 for me.
Don't think Woody can stay on the court foulwise for 30 minutes regularly- 25 for me.
Good for Gesell- 28, Jok- 25, Clemmons 23, although as the frosh wings develop, ACs minutes may go down. Uhl may be at 16 or he could get to 20. Don't think Jones will be at 9 min/game. But don't think he'll start either- around 15 maybe. I see Fleming getting more minutes than Ellingson. If Moss gets here this fall, I think he, Jones, and Fleming have the best chance at double figure minutes among the newbies.

 

[WildTurk]

Fouls and Woody = lookout!

 

[StormHawk42]

Don't think Woody will have that many, but I definitely think Uthoff will be on the floor as much as possible. Probably will sit for the middle 2-3 minute stretch in each half like White did this year.

 

[Ronman]

I haven't seen him play, but I would have thought that Jones would be good for more than 9 minutes.

 

[StormHawk42]

I haven't seen him play, but I would have thought that Jones would be good for more than 9 minutes.

I think his PT directly correlates with Uhl's development. Uhl has put up some pretty good numbers in PTL and frankly, has more weapons than Jones and has a whole year of D1 experience. I for one am expecting Uhl to take a big leap forward this year with White gone. Also means that I don't think Jones will see much action this year UNLESS he is constantly swishing 3's which it sounds like he is capable of. But outside of that, I think Jones will serve the most use when Woody and JU are gone after next year.

 

[DanL53]

The article was more confirmation (If opinion can be confirmation? Probably wrong word.) that the corps of this year's team was playing on the court last year.

 

[johnnashhawk]

My opinion.....MG will be close to JU, both close to 35

 

[HellaHawk]

My opinion.....MG will be close to JU, both close to 35

I don't agree because that means Clemmons wouldn't get much playing time. And Clemmons proved last year that he deserves a lot more than 5 minutes a game. Sure, Clemmons could play the 2 while Gesell manned the point but that experiment didn't work out well last year because defenses will just collapse on us without better shooters out there. That's why Peter Jok became starter midseason. With Jok moving to the three, I suppose Clemmons at the two is more likely (especially in end game situations where we need ball handling and defense), but I suspect that we see Ellingson/Fleming/Moss at the 2.

 

[nu2u]

I sponsored a poll about 6 weeks ago to solicit feedback on the question of which new Hawkeye recruit would get the most playing time this season.

Isiah Moss was the runaway winner. He easily distanced himself from Ahmad Wagner and Wagner received about twice as many votes as third place Andrew Fleming. I'm going off of recollection. Hutton and Williams barely registered.

The hawkcentral projection basically turns the table on the HR poll with Fleming leading for minutes and Moss currently outside looking in. Of course, that was before we learned that Moss needed more academic work and prior to the start of PTL where Fleming has gained some attention. Interestingly. Hutton is projected for more time than Wagner.

Of course, the minutes are still highly speculative this far out. Moss could explode in Fall practice and win a back-up role, Fran might decide that Wagner adds a dimension worth more playing time. Jok might stay at SG after all thereby keeping Fleming on the bench longer, etc. You never know.

 

[nu2u]

My opinion.....MG will be close to JU, both close to 35

35 minutes are only reserved for elite PGs.

 

[unIowa]

I just don't see Williams red shirting if he is in serious contention for PG duties in the 16/17 season...need to get some of the green rubbed off before then.

 

[todd_schisler]

Very impressed with both Williams and Hutton tonight during PTL. Both are very athletic and talented, I definitely believe Williams is a future PG.

 

[hawk-i bob]

Ill toss in with July 10th minutes speculation...
Top 10
#1 Uthoff
#2 Gesell
#3 Jok
#4 Clemmons
#5 Woodbury
#6 Uhl
#7 Fleming
#8 Jones
#9 Wagner

#10...one of Ellingson, Hutton, Baer...
Redshirts'...Williams & Moss...pretty good talent 10-14.

 

[iowalawhawk]

Gesell averaged about 25 minutes last year, and nothing will really change at the PG position. If he plays more than 28 or so it probably means he's killing it out there.

We've all seen Uhl's skillset (aka Uhl's Tools) but he was statistically awful last year. I have to believe that Jones and/or Wagner will pull some more minutes.

I'm also not sure Woodbury can handle 30 minutes. We'll see.

 

[hwksforlife]

Ute 32
Mike 28
Woody 25
Jok 24
AC 22
Uhl 15
Jones 14
Wagner 10
Ellingson 8
Flemming 8
Hubbard 7
Moss 7

 

[mstp1992]

Don't think Woody will have that many, but I definitely think Uthoff will be on the floor as much as possible. Probably will sit for the middle 2-3 minute stretch in each half like White did this year.

Just a guess, but I would think Uthoff will be on the floor any time Woodbury's on the bench. Not that Uthoff is a true post player, but as your best "tall" player I think he's savvy enough to take some of the pressure off any of the other less experienced post players.

Of course, all of this is just a hunch and if someone really jumps out during the pre-season games as one who can capably fill in for Woodbury without much/any drop-off then so much the better.

 

[hawk-i bob]

Uthoff / Woodbury
Uhl / Wagner (backups)
are my guesses for stretch 4 & 5.
was impressed with Uhl's increased size & strength at last PTL game that I saw.

course when Fran goes small...who knows...we could even see a Hutton guarding a 4.
I like Jok & Dales Jones at 3..they have the height...and both are shooters.

Moving Jok to part of the 3 rotation..opens things up even more for Fleming / Ellingson at 2.

for sure Fran's rotation of the newcomers will be interesting to follow.

 

[iabcuda]

The talents of our newcomers will be critical to our success this year. The current projected starters gathering 30 plus minutes apiece will not get us to a 2nd, 3rd, or 4th place finish in the B10. One or more of the newbies must breakout and challenge for, if not get, starting minutes.

This should be Fran’s most fun and most challenging group to date; he will need to coach them up quickly. Some years it is hard to judge how much coaching is a factor. This year it will be obvious one way or the other.

 

[nu2u]

The talents of our newcomers will be critical to our success this year. The current projected starters gathering 30 plus minutes apiece will not get us to a 2nd, 3rd, or 4th place finish in the B10. One or more of the newbies must breakout and challenge for, if not get, starting minutes..

Your characterization of the talent of Iowa's starters and their capacity to carry the team to success (which I define as a solid NCAA tourney invite, say 3rd-5th B10) is discounted a little too much IMO. But I agree that a standout / breakout by one or more of the newbies (I include Ellingson in that group) is essential to challenge for a conference title.

 

[freemanbrenner]

I see wppdy around 25 and Jok around 30. I could see gesell at around 32 and uthoff around 34. Pretty good breakdown. Think jones plays a lot since he can hit shots. Moss is intriguing. Could some guys redshirt? Sure, but in the past with fran it has been. Last minute decision and he gives guys chances to play.

 

[DanL53]

I've got a little different take on Woody. I see him up to 32 mpg MINUS the games he is in foul trouble. I think he's going to be dang close to a double double guy his senior year, (12.5 ppg , 9 reb) and I HOPE we'll be able to count his foul trouble games without using our thumbs. (8 or less)

McCaffery would probably disagree, but I say let him play the first half minus a short break unless he gets his THIRD foul...not second.

 

[CanadaHawk]

Ute 32
Mike 28
Woody 25
Jok 24
AC 22
Uhl 15
Jones 14
Wagner 10
Ellingson 8
Flemming 8

I've got a little different take on Woody. I see him up to 32 mpg MINUS the games he is in foul trouble. I think he's going to be dang close to a double double guy his senior year, (12.5 ppg , 9 reb) and I HOPE we'll be able to count his foul trouble games without using our thumbs. (8 or less)

McCaffery would probably disagree, but I say let him play the first half minus a short break unless he gets his THIRD foul...not second.

The strategy of letting Woody play until 3 fouls in the first half really assumes that you find more value in having him on the floor during the first half of the game than the second. That might be in some contests, but not all, particularly not when we're playing another team with tough bigs, which is when he's most likely to get in foul trouble.

 

[Ronman]

It'll be hard to convince Coach McCaffery to change one of his basic concepts at this point in his career. The real question is how he'll configure the team with Woodbury on the bench.

 

[hawkeyeguy69]

#1 Uthoff
#2 Gesell
#3 Woody
#4 Jok
#5 Clemmons
#6 Uhl
#7 Fleming
#8 Jones
#9-9a Hutton, Wagner
#11.... Moss, Ellingson, Baer, Williams
I think some games Fran plays certain guys depending on the need, more offense or more defense. Even when he whitties the roster down in the first couple weeks of B1G play, and goes with a 9 player rotation. Those last 2-3 guys may consist of 4-5 players. Rotating who plays what game depending on the opponent and their style of play.

 

[supahawk]

A lot of talent on this team. One thing that really strikes me is that we become very young next year. While we are upper class rich this year we will have Jok, Jones, and Uhl next year. I really hope this years team has a lot of success to set the tone for the young guys to keep it going in the coming years.

This should be a great senior class to learn from with MG, Sapp, Woody, and Uthoff. Those four guys have seen a little bit of everything in their careers and they are very smart, high integrity guys that have all worked through various obstacles in their careers. I feel like this incoming group gets to learn from 4 Matt Gatens rather than one.

If we can land a great point guard in this class to go with Williams and a guy like Cook and one other top player on the board we are going to have a lineup full of players that we have not seen at Iowa since the 80's. This years recruiting class is huge. Then you add in the McCaffrey boys and Joe and we are rolling for years to come. Love what Fran is doing. I really do believe he is building us a monster. Again, this years recruiting class is HUGE!!! Go get 'em Fran!!!!

 

[hwksforlife]

I've got a little different take on Woody. I see him up to 32 mpg MINUS the games he is in foul trouble. I think he's going to be dang close to a double double guy his senior year, (12.5 ppg , 9 reb) and I HOPE we'll be able to count his foul trouble games without using our thumbs. (8 or less)

McCaffery would probably disagree, but I say let him play the first half minus a short break unless he gets his THIRD foul...not second.

I think most of us are guessing what he will average. JU will probably play 38 in some games. Jok will probably be over 30 and Mike will probably hit 35.

 

[nu2u]

It'll be hard to convince Coach McCaffery to change one of his basic concepts at this point in his career. The real question is how he'll configure the team with Woodbury on the bench.

What are your thoughts?

 

[DanL53]

A lot of talent on this team. One thing that really strikes me is that we become very young next year. While we are upper class rich this year we will have Jok, Jones, and Uhl next year. I really hope this years team has a lot of success to set the tone for the young guys to keep it going in the coming years.

This should be a great senior class to learn from with MG, Sapp, Woody, and Uthoff. Those four guys have seen a little bit of everything in their careers and they are very smart, high integrity guys that have all worked through various obstacles in their careers. I feel like this incoming group gets to learn from 4 Matt Gatens rather than one.

If we can land a great point guard in this class to go with Williams and a guy like Cook and one other top player on the board we are going to have a lineup full of players that we have not seen at Iowa since the 80's. This years recruiting class is huge. Then you add in the McCaffrey boys and Joe and we are rolling for years to come. Love what Fran is doing. I really do believe he is building us a monster. Again, this years recruiting class is HUGE!!! Go get 'em Fran!!!!

My uncomfortably huge hope is twenty-three wins this season. By my math, that would send our seniors out having won ninety games in their Hawkeye career! And yes, we'll be young next season, talented and young.

 

[hawkeyeguy69]

What are your thoughts?

That's what I love when I scheme of this team. I think we could go a couple routes:

Quickness - AC, MG, Jok, JU, Uhl (Moss, Hutton)
Length - JU, Uhl, Jones, Jok, MG (Wagner, Baer, Williams-longer wing span than Woody, not bad for a PG)
Bombs Away - AC, Jok, Fleming, Jones, JU (Ellingson, MG-with a good arm)

 

[nu2u]

hawkeyeguy69 - my gut feeling is that Fran will go with length before quickness and "bombs away" is reserved for late in games where Iowa is trailing by a large margin.

One thing is for sure - McCaffery will have quite a few line-up options to test early. I hope he settles on a 8 man rotation by conference play with 1 or 2 players used in spot duty or specific situations.

 

[RefinedBean]

Having a hard time figuring Ellingson's minutes - it'll really depend on how he is defensively. That's what kept Oglesby on the floor more despite his shooting woes.

 

[Ronman]

What are your thoughts?

Having not seen the players this summer, and taking into consideration that no one has seen Moss yet, I think it best to reserve judgement until the season. It will be an curious situation as I don't believe Woodbury can play more than 24-25 minutes a game and obviously less if he gets into foul trouble. At least it seems as though we have plenty of bodies to throw at the problem.

 

[The Sleeping Dog]

Boys did not play well with Clemmons and Gesell playing together, except in late game situations. There are a lot of moving parts on this team. We are going to need to surround the floor with really good shooters when Woodbury's not on the floor.

I still think Wagner will get the most playing time because he sounds like the most physical guy next to Woodbury. Its a small center but survivable if played it in small doses.

Fleming or Ellingson will play more minutes than projected above if either or both turn out to be the shooters they are reputed to be. A really good and reliable outside shooter has been a major weakness since Gatens senior year. Especially important when Woodbury is out.

Hutton and Williams seem to not have a clear path to much playing time. If the reports coming out of the PTL are close to accurate it will be hard to keep him off the floor, especially to see if he can affect the game like a young Eric May. Having a defensive demon come in can shake up an opponent and lift the Hawks and the crowd with a spectacular defensive stop.

Lots and lots of moving parts on next year's roster to be sure.

 

[johnnashhawk]

I sponsored a poll about 6 weeks ago to solicit feedback on the question of which new Hawkeye recruit would get the most playing time this season.

Isiah Moss was the runaway winner. He easily distanced himself from Ahmad Wagner and Wagner received about twice as many votes as third place Andrew Fleming. I'm going off of recollection. Hutton and Williams barely registered.

The hawkcentral projection basically turns the table on the HR poll with Fleming leading for minutes and Moss currently outside looking in. Of course, that was before we learned that Moss needed more academic work and prior to the start of PTL where Fleming has gained some attention. Interestingly. Hutton is projected for more time than Wagner.

Of course, the minutes are still highly speculative this far out. Moss could explode in Fall practice and win a back-up role, Fran might decide that Wagner adds a dimension worth more playing time. Jok might stay at SG after all thereby keeping Fleming on the bench longer, etc. You never know.

I missed the poll, but I have been a big fan of Fleming since he committed. Even more optimistic now. He just has the intangibles and the iq. He's a guy like Buster Posey, who wills his team to success. The little things no one hears about, like letting teammates know they can succeed. And then puts them all on his back and carries them when that's what it takes to win. Kinda like a....leader!