RPI Watch

whatsup13579er

HR Legend
Gold Member
Oct 13, 2015
15,384
27,337
113
Iowa currently sits at 77 in the RPI with a 7-0 lead at Milwaukee. Hawks will be +30 RPI points to 75 with a win, -58 and down to 92 with a loss. If everything else goes Iowa's way today in the other games (it won't), they could be up another 35 to 40 points and around 70 by the end of the night.

Other teams to keep an eye on and how many RPI points Iowa gets if they win: CMU +7 (up 21-4), Illinois +10, UC Irvine +7, Michigan +8 (vs #3 ND).


Looking ahead to the weekend, Minnesota (199) hosts St Thomas (286) tomorrow so the Gophers will come to Iowa City a 200+ RPI ballclub. For reference, UC Irivine (72) is hosting Loyola-Marymount (191) tonight and will lose 2 RPI points with a win and lose 96 with a loss. A sweep will be needed for Iowa to hold in the mid-70s.
 
  • Like
Reactions: AuroraHawk

whatsup13579er

HR Legend
Gold Member
Oct 13, 2015
15,384
27,337
113
Not a huge RPI impact at the moment, only +4 points for Iowa, but Bradley opens their weekend series with a big win over #3 Dallas Baptist. Bradley has jumped 23 spots to 139. Iowa hosts Bradley in their midweek game next week. Would be a really nice RPI boost to Bradley to win the series.
 
Feb 25, 2008
51,510
24,157
113
Iowa currently sits at 77 in the RPI with a 7-0 lead at Milwaukee. Hawks will be +30 RPI points to 75 with a win, -58 and down to 92 with a loss. If everything else goes Iowa's way today in the other games (it won't), they could be up another 35 to 40 points and around 70 by the end of the night.

Other teams to keep an eye on and how many RPI points Iowa gets if they win: CMU +7 (up 21-4), Illinois +10, UC Irvine +7, Michigan +8 (vs #3 ND).


Looking ahead to the weekend, Minnesota (199) hosts St Thomas (286) tomorrow so the Gophers will come to Iowa City a 200+ RPI ballclub. For reference, UC Irivine (72) is hosting Loyola-Marymount (191) tonight and will lose 2 RPI points with a win and lose 96 with a loss. A sweep will be needed for Iowa to hold in the mid-70s.
So basically as we've established years ago...........................RPI is full of sh**.
 

whatsup13579er

HR Legend
Gold Member
Oct 13, 2015
15,384
27,337
113
Iowa’s weekend series with the Gophers is here. Iowa will lose 14 RPI points with a win and lose 106 points with a loss. On the other side Minny will lose 8 RPI points with a loss. So even with a sweep, Iowa will drop probably 40 points in the RPI to around 80.

Bradley having a heckuva weekend winning the series against DBU today and will go for the sweep tomorrow.
 

KyleHuesmann

HR All-American
Gold Member
Apr 14, 2021
4,009
6,592
113
I believe Iowa only lost 14 points for the win yesterday and with some help from previous opponents Iowa jumped up 2 spots to 75.

Hawkeyes lose 13 points with a win today. Luckily, Davidson is 1 point behind at #76 and then it’s another 28 points to Pepperdine at #77. If the previous opponents take care of business again, Iowa might be able to move up to 73-74 by the end of the day.
 

KyleHuesmann

HR All-American
Gold Member
Apr 14, 2021
4,009
6,592
113
Iowa’s weekend series with the Gophers is here. Iowa will lose 14 RPI points with a win and lose 106 points with a loss. On the other side Minny will lose 8 RPI points with a loss. So even with a sweep, Iowa will drop probably 40 points in the RPI to around 80.

Bradley having a heckuva weekend winning the series against DBU today and will go for the sweep tomorrow.
If Bradley sweeps today, Iowa might be looking at 8-10 points with a win Tuesday.

If Bradley loses, it will likely be right around even with a win.
 
  • Like
Reactions: whatsup13579er

whatsup13579er

HR Legend
Gold Member
Oct 13, 2015
15,384
27,337
113
This weekend ended up better than Iowa could have hoped going in IMO. They were able to pull off the sweep of the Gophers and, despite losing about 40 RPI points from the sweep, Iowa actually moved up 4 spots from 77 to 73 in the RPI. A big thanks to Bradley who won their series against #3 DBU as well as Illinois, Michigan, and Central Michigan for sweeping their games this weekend. CMU has reeled off 13 straight since falling to Iowa in IC.

Looking ahead this week Iowa hosts Bradley (115) and goes to Rutger (28). The Bradley game is likely a RPI points loser win or lose for Iowa. Rutger is the last chance for Iowa to put a couple of really good wins on their resume and gain some serious ground in the RPI. Rutger is winners of 17 straight and has Iona (289) and Princeton (285) in midweek games this week. Hopefully they don't lose too much RPI wise and have to get a lot of innings from their bullpen in doing so.
 

KyleHuesmann

HR All-American
Gold Member
Apr 14, 2021
4,009
6,592
113
This weekend ended up better than Iowa could have hoped going in IMO. They were able to pull off the sweep of the Gophers and, despite losing about 40 RPI points from the sweep, Iowa actually moved up 4 spots from 77 to 73 in the RPI. A big thanks to Bradley who won their series against #3 DBU as well as Illinois, Michigan, and Central Michigan for sweeping their games this weekend. CMU has reeled off 13 straight since falling to Iowa in IC.

Looking ahead this week Iowa hosts Bradley (115) and goes to Rutger (28). The Bradley game is likely a RPI points loser win or lose for Iowa. Rutger is the last chance for Iowa to put a couple of really good wins on their resume and gain some serious ground in the RPI. Rutger is winners of 17 straight and has Iona (289) and Princeton (285) in midweek games this week. Hopefully they don't lose too much RPI wise and have to get a lot of innings from their bullpen in doing so.
Iowa might be able to sneak a few points out of Bradley. Minnesota is 200 in the RPI and Iowa only lost 13-14 each game.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BigOHawk

ssckelley

HR All-State
Oct 11, 2021
989
1,269
93
Iowa might be able to sneak a few points out of Bradley. Minnesota is 200 in the RPI and Iowa only lost 13-14 each game.

Remember it's not where the team is ranked on the RPI that gives Iowa points or loses point, it's the teams weighted record. Minnesota hurts Iowa's opponents win % because they have lost 23 games (I don't know what the weighted record is). Bradley will still hurt Iowa because their overall record is 11-18. The RPI ranking helps determine the quality of the win for the team sheet, which the committee will look at.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: whatsup13579er

whatsup13579er

HR Legend
Gold Member
Oct 13, 2015
15,384
27,337
113
Remember it's not where the team is ranked on the RPI that gives us points or loses point, it's the teams weighted record. Minnesota hurts Iowa's opponents win % because they have lost 23 games (I don't know what the weighted record is). Bradly will still hurt Iowa because their overall record is 11-18. The RPI ranking helps determine the quality of the win for the team sheet, which the committee will look at.
Basically:

giphy.gif
 
  • Haha
Reactions: ssckelley

whatsup13579er

HR Legend
Gold Member
Oct 13, 2015
15,384
27,337
113
A couple of good articles for those who want to get into the weeds:



I think a good tweak would be to weight a 3 game series differently than a series of single games so that a team doesn't lose RPI points for winning a series. For example, IIRC Iowa would have lost RPI points at the time had they won the Illinois series 2-1.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ssckelley

ssckelley

HR All-State
Oct 11, 2021
989
1,269
93
A couple of good articles for those who want to get into the weeds:



I think a good tweak would be to weight a 3 game series differently than a series of single games so that a team doesn't lose RPI points for winning a series. For example, IIRC Iowa would have lost RPI points at the time had they won the Illinois series 2-1.

Even I learned something today, I thought the weighted win and loss was .6 to 1.4 while it's now .7 to 1.3. Which is nice otherwise every time you win a home series 2 games to 1 you're still losing win % (1.2 - 1.4, now it's 1.4 - 1.3).

But the IU article isn't completely accurate because the writer is using whole records for the opponents and opponents-opponents records when in fact they are weighted as well.
 

ipiteu2

HR MVP
Gold Member
Oct 27, 2002
1,850
260
83
Texas Tech getting swept to TCU hurts a little bit. Still in the 30's but it would have been nice to get a win or two against a top 25 team.
 
  • Like
Reactions: whatsup13579er

ssckelley

HR All-State
Oct 11, 2021
989
1,269
93
The projected RPI has Iowa losing 7 of the next 8 games, that includes losing to Bradley and getting swept by both Rutgers and Nebraska. The only projected win is against Western Illinois.

Interesting......
 

BigOHawk

HR All-American
Oct 27, 2001
3,479
4,004
113
Omaha, NE
Illinois was 31 and they were in the 80s. I’d say 15-18 is a good guess. Enough to move up a couple spots if previous opponents can win their midweeks.
Again what is the lowest RPI the regionals would take? Somewhere in the 50s? That's why I love the Big Ten Tournament, a great chance to forget the RPI and win the whole thing! Omaha should be rocking again if Iowa can win a few games, last time they made the tournament final vs OSU was incredible, the I-O-W-A chant rolling through the baseball stadium was cool, probably close to 10,000 Iowa fans were there.
 

BigOHawk

HR All-American
Oct 27, 2001
3,479
4,004
113
Omaha, NE
The projected RPI has Iowa losing 7 of the next 8 games, that includes losing to Bradley and getting swept by both Rutgers and Nebraska. The only projected win is against Western Illinois.

Interesting......
Wonder how accurate that was for the past several games 'real' result for Iowa?
 

AuroraHawk

HR Heisman
Dec 18, 2004
6,176
7,961
113
The projected RPI has Iowa losing 7 of the next 8 games, that includes losing to Bradley and getting swept by both Rutgers and Nebraska. The only projected win is against Western Illinois.

Interesting......

Historically, Nolan's W/L projections change on a day to day basis. Sometimes wildly.
 
Sep 4, 2012
1,284
3,508
113
This has probably been discussed before, but why does college baseball still use RPI as its primary metric to compare teams? It’s an archaic and incredibly flawed system. Football and basketball have moved almost entirely away from RPI in favor of more sophisticated methods, why not baseball?
 

KyleHuesmann

HR All-American
Gold Member
Apr 14, 2021
4,009
6,592
113
If you click on the "Predict Winners" tab on the Warren Nolan site that is better than the predicted results. "Predict Winners" was 6-2 and 7-1 tonight with their two predictors tonight.

Has Iowa winning 7-4 with one and 8-2 with the other tomorrow.
 

HawkeyeGenius

HR All-American
Gold Member
Nov 25, 2021
3,530
4,587
113
That would put Iowa at 18-6 in conference? That would be a pretty strong statement. A win or two in the BTT to get the RPI into the 40s would probably push them to the right side of the bubble.
I'm not saying they wouldn't get in with an RPI of 50, but it's not a lock. They did themselves zero favors with some of the early games they lost. Having one more each against Illinois and CMU would be big too.
 
  • Like
Reactions: whatsup13579er

BigOHawk

HR All-American
Oct 27, 2001
3,479
4,004
113
Omaha, NE
I'm not saying they wouldn't get in with an RPI of 50, but it's not a lock. They did themselves zero favors with some of the early games they lost. Having one more each against Illinois and CMU would be big too.
Agreed, we were a strike or two away from getting Illinois and turns out CMU is a pretty decent team. Need Bradley tonight and at least 1/3 from Rutgers.
 
  • Like
Reactions: AuroraHawk

whatsup13579er

HR Legend
Gold Member
Oct 13, 2015
15,384
27,337
113
I'm not saying they wouldn't get in with an RPI of 50, but it's not a lock. They did themselves zero favors with some of the early games they lost. Having one more each against Illinois and CMU would be big too.
A win against Texas AM would look nice right about now. So would another one at UC Irvine or one more strike against Illinois. The opportunities have been there.
 

AuroraHawk

HR Heisman
Dec 18, 2004
6,176
7,961
113
Mid-week game madness.
Texas Tech blows 3 run lead in 9th to New Mexico.
Air Force sticking it to Texas.
Indiana State thumps Illinois.
A&M thumps Dallas Baptist.
St. Thomas up big on Minnesota.
 
  • Like
Reactions: whatsup13579er

ssckelley

HR All-State
Oct 11, 2021
989
1,269
93
Mid-week game madness.
Texas Tech blows 3 run lead in 9th to New Mexico.
Air Force sticking it to Texas.
Indiana State thumps Illinois.
A&M thumps Dallas Baptist.
St. Thomas up big on Minnesota.
I get irritated every time I think of that Illinois series
 

HawkeyeGenius

HR All-American
Gold Member
Nov 25, 2021
3,530
4,587
113
At this point Iowa just needs to win all their midweek games and every series besides Rutgers. All projections say Iowa gets swept at Rutgers so even 1/3 is a gain. Iowa is good enough to win that series. Nebraska is a tricky series because their talent is better than their record. Same with Indiana as well. I don't know enough about Purdue or MSU.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ssckelley

ssckelley

HR All-State
Oct 11, 2021
989
1,269
93
At this point Iowa just needs to win all their midweek games and every series besides Rutgers. All projections say Iowa gets swept at Rutgers so even 1/3 is a gain. Iowa is good enough to win that series. Nebraska is a tricky series because their talent is better than their record. Same with Indiana as well. I don't know enough about Purdue or MSU.

Yes, that Nebraska series worries me as much as Rutgers. They were picked to win the Big Ten so people recognize the talent is there.

I‘d like to rant a little about none of these weekend games being on BTN. /rant
 
  • Like
Reactions: whatsup13579er

KyleHuesmann

HR All-American
Gold Member
Apr 14, 2021
4,009
6,592
113
2/3 at Rutgers
2/3 at Nebraska
2/3 vs Purdue
3/3 at Michigan State
2/3 vs Indiana
3/3 vs WIU, Illinois St, UIC
= 35-17 + 2-2 at BTT = 37-19

37-19 and 17-7 in Big Ten play has to be good enough right? 21-7 to end the year.
 

HawkeyeGenius

HR All-American
Gold Member
Nov 25, 2021
3,530
4,587
113
2/3 at Rutgers
2/3 at Nebraska
2/3 vs Purdue
3/3 at Michigan State
2/3 vs Indiana
3/3 vs WIU, Illinois St, UIC
= 35-17 + 2-2 at BTT = 37-19

37-19 and 17-7 in Big Ten play has to be good enough right? 21-7 to end the year.
Is that too much to ask of this team with the bullpen woes?