Rutgers @ Iowa Betting Thread

[PartyHawk420]

Good morning my fellow degenerates!

We'll see how much traction this thread gets but I figured an accumulative opinion on Hawkeye basketball could be beneficial to our wallets!

Odds are via EliteSportsBook:

Full Game Odds:
Moneyline: Rutgers +200 // Iowa -240
Point Spread: Rutgers +5.5 // Iowa -5.5
Over / Under: 139 total points (line has moved from 138 to 139)

1st Half Odds:
Moneyline: Rutgers +145 // Iowa -190
Point Spread: Rutgers +2.5 // Iowa -2.5
Over / Under: 65 total points

I'm personally betting the under of 138 but wondered if any of these figures jumped out to anyone.

Go Hawks!!

 

[Chishawk1425]

I like that play. I may just go ML Iowa or not touch it, other then O/U with Iowa involved I don't like including them in my plays. If the O/U doesn't go over 138 we lose LOL.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

I like that play. I may just go ML Iowa or not touch it, other then O/U with Iowa involved I don't like including them in my plays. If the O/U doesn't go over 138 we lose LOL.

Really? Isn't our record awesome holding teams to 60 or less? And Rutgers is not particularly good offensively.

 

[Chishawk1425]

Really? Isn't our record awesome holding teams to 60 or less? And Rutgers is not particularly good offensively.

My point on that statement is that means we probably didn't score well which generally means we lose. I think we are 13-0 or something like that scoring over 75 I saw. You could be right with what your saying but generally that means we aren't scoring which doesn't generally bode well.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

Ah, my take is generally that we'll get ours. The key is can we stop other team at all? We've scored at least 67 in every game this season. I'm pretty sure we'll get our points, the game will be won or lost depending on whether we can get stops. IIRC Ron Harper Jr. went off against us from 3 last year.

I think we match up well against Rutgers (typically, the better 3 point teams have been the ones to give us trouble). They shoot under 30%, so our defense can pack the lane and rebound against Rutgers in a similar style to what beat us in Nebraska.

I'd lean Hawks to cover and the Under, but it's not a big enough variance from my model to actually bet it.

 

[Chishawk1425]

Ah, my take is generally that we'll get ours. The key is can we stop other team at all? We've scored at least 67 in every game this season. I'm pretty sure we'll get our points, the game will be won or lost depending on whether we can get stops. IIRC Ron Harper Jr. went off against us from 3 last year.

I think we match up well against Rutgers (typically, the better 3 point teams have been the ones to give us trouble). They shoot under 30%, so our defense can pack the lane and rebound against Rutgers in a similar style to what beat us in Nebraska.

I'd lean Hawks to cover and the Under, but it's not a big enough variance from my model to actually bet it.

Yep, lots of good options tonight at the 6pm slot. I like a lot of home favorites as a parlay ML play. After a few beers leading up to Iowa game I'll probably do the Over ha.

 

[PartyHawk420]

I think it's safe to give Rutgers defense some credit and assume they hold us under our average. Take a look at their B1G games this year:

vs Minnesota: 120 total points
vs Indiana: 109 total points
@ Illinois: 105 total points
vs Penn State: 133 total points
@ Nebraska: 141 total points
vs Wisconsin: 137 total points
@ Sparty: 142 total points

That's an average of 126.7 PPG in B1G play. Looking at it objectively, their length will probably slow down our offense and hold us below our average. Especially their 3 most recent games have been snoozers on the points side

 

[Scangg]

Rutgers has covered 11 of their last 12 games.

The Rutgers D should slow down Iowa's offense, take the under. Mathis and Young and beasts on the perimeter and Caleb's length will bother Weiscamp. Myles can bang with Garza and has very long arms.

 

[Hawk94Mn]

I’d take the over our transition defense is our weak link and they like to get up shots early in the shot clock just like us. They are a special defensive squad but we are at home and should make some hay at the free throw line.

 

[jasonrann]

I just put in a teaser:

Rutgers +11.5
Over 132

 

[myteamcanbeatupyourteam]

My point on that statement is that means we probably didn't score well which generally means we lose. I think we are 13-0 or something like that scoring over 75 I saw. You could be right with what your saying but generally that means we aren't scoring which doesn't generally bode well.

Can't be. 91 @ Michigan and 86 against Penn State

 

[Chishawk1425]

Can't be. 91 @ Michigan and 86 against Penn State

Good point. I think it was Iowa's opponent scores 75 or under we are undefeated then.

 

[RUChoppin]

Rutgers has held 14 opponents to 65 or fewer points this season, and has gone 1-3 when allowing 70+. Iowa has scored 70+ in 16 of their 18 games, and never less than 67.

Definitely strength on strength tonight, which makes the o/u a tough bet.

On the flip side, Iowa has held teams to 74 or fewer 12 times this season, but has gone 1-5 when allowing more.

 

[Degaz-RU]

Rutgers' defense has held most of its opponents below their season scoring averages. Here are the previous 9 games:

[Opponent] (PPG, +/- difference between PPG and RU allowed)
Wisconsin W 72-65 (66.5, -1.5)
Seton Hall W 68-48 (75.6, -27.6)
Lafayette W 63-44 (72.5, -28.5)
Caldwell W 94-49 (77.5, -28.5)
Nebraska W 79-62 (72.6, -10.6)
Penn St. W 72-61 (77.9, -16.9)
Illinois L 54-51 (75.8, -21.8)
Indiana W 59-50 (75.1, -25.1)
Minnesota W 64-56 (72.7, -16.7)

Setting aside Lafayette and Caldwell, the figures for SHU (ranked #10 in latest AP poll) and the most recent 5 game stretch in the B1G are downright eye-popping.

I don't know if this trend will continue tonight against your superb offense, but it really NEEDS to if Rutgers has any chance of winning.

 

[kceasthawk]

Rutgers has covered 11 of their last 12 games.

The Rutgers D should slow down Iowa's offense, take the under. Mathis and Young and beasts on the perimeter and Caleb's length will bother Weiscamp. Myles can bang with Garza and has very long arms.

Teske and Davis from Michigan are considered the best defensive post tandem in the BIG, and they both have more reach then Garza, so all he did was score the most points against them of ANY BIG player in a two game set in the last 20 years. 77 points to be exact. Garza personally drew 12 fouls in the last game against them. Good luck to your boy Myles......

 

[PartyHawk420]

So you're taking the over? This is an objective discussion on betting lines

Teske and Davis from Michigan are considered the best defensive post tandem in the BIG, and they both have more reach then Garza, so all he did was score the most points against them of ANY BIG player in a two game set in the last 20 years. 77 points to be exact. Garza personally drew 12 fouls in the last game against them. Good luck to your boy Myles......

 

[Scangg]

Teske and Davis from Michigan are considered the best defensive post tandem in the BIG, and they both have more reach then Garza, so all he did was score the most points against them of ANY BIG player in a two game set in the last 20 years. 77 points to be exact. Garza personally drew 12 fouls in the last game against them. Good luck to your boy Myles......

Michigan I believe is last place defensively in the conference and 128th overall. If you think scoring on Michigan translates to scoring on Rutgers you are likely in for a rude awakening tonight. Rutgers is 8th in the country

 

[kceasthawk]

Michigan I believe is last place defensively in the conference and 128th overall. If you think scoring on Michigan translates to scoring on Rutgers you are likely in for a rude awakening tonight. Rutgers is 8th in the country

Well someones in for a rude awakening thats for sure, and it may just be the Scarlet Knights. Consider who each team has played for example. In Iowa alone, whom Michigan has played twice already, they have played a team ranked top 5, and for much of the season 1st in the nation in offensive efficiency. The fact that Rutgers has not yet faced Iowa once skews the numbers, certainly not that they are not a good defensive team, but it does skew the numbers. The fact that Iowa has been at the top of the nation in offensive efficiency all year is not only from them playing Michigan. Nobody has stopped the Garzilla. Tonight is your chance......

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

Michigan I believe is last place defensively in the conference and 128th overall. If you think scoring on Michigan translates to scoring on Rutgers you are likely in for a rude awakening tonight. Rutgers is 8th in the country

Where are you lookin at 128th overall? I've got them at 52nd for defensive efficiency.

 

[Chishawk1425]

I like the Over if its under 140 total I think. I am going to get after it on the 6pm games before I decide for sure but a lot of ML parlay home team favorite potential I'm seeing.

 

[DodgerHawki]

Rutgers' defense has held most of its opponents below their season scoring averages. Here are the previous 9 games:

[Opponent] (PPG, +/- difference between PPG and RU allowed)
Wisconsin W 72-65 (66.5, -1.5)
Seton Hall W 68-48 (75.6, -27.6)
Lafayette W 63-44 (72.5, -28.5)
Caldwell W 94-49 (77.5, -28.5)
Nebraska W 79-62 (72.6, -10.6)
Penn St. W 72-61 (77.9, -16.9)
Illinois L 54-51 (75.8, -21.8)
Indiana W 59-50 (75.1, -25.1)
Minnesota W 64-56 (72.7, -16.7)

Setting aside Lafayette and Caldwell, the figures for SHU (ranked #10 in latest AP poll) and the most recent 5 game stretch in the B1G are downright eye-popping.

I don't know if this trend will continue tonight against your superb offense, but it really NEEDS to if Rutgers has any chance of winning.

thanks for sharing that. Teams each have a unique and very good strength that is the weakness of the other team (Rutgers D being its strength vs Iowa's O). Other comparable defenses Iowa has played this year are Texas Tech, SD State and Maryland. Iowa scored just under a point per possession vs TTEch and Maryland, but won both by double digits due to defense. Iowa's offense against SD State was not bad, but defense just let SD State get away from them.

 

[RUTravesty]

Michigan has the worst interior D in the conference this year. Every single opposing center feasts on Teske. In conference play centers have scored 44, 19, 20, 36, 30 and 33 against UM. Now I'm not saying Myles will stop or even slow down Garza, but going off on Michigan isn't impressive

 

[kceasthawk]

Michigan has the worst interior D in the conference this year. Every single opposing center feasts on Teske. In conference play centers have scored 44, 19, 20, 36, 30 and 33 against UM. Now I'm not saying Myles will stop or even slow down Garza, but going off on Michigan isn't impressive

Mostly because Howard has been loathe to double in the post as most other teams do against the elite Bigs in the conference. I believe Michigan still won most of those games until recently. Two of your listed scorers are the same guy, Garza, who has averaged 28 points a game against the league, not just the Wolverines.....

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

Michigan has the worst interior D in the conference this year. Every single opposing center feasts on Teske. In conference play centers have scored 44, 19, 20, 36, 30 and 33 against UM. Now I'm not saying Myles will stop or even slow down Garza, but going off on Michigan isn't impressive

Except that the 44 and 33 were Garza, and the B1G is loaded with post players, so it actually is impressive. Center's feast because Michigan refuses to double consistently. If Rutgers doubles Garza, who are they letting shoot? Toussaint and Pemsl are the only safe options to leave open, and Toussaint in particular can get to the rim if he's not pressured.

The big question for me is going to be Rutgers' foul trouble. If Garza draws fouls like he has, Rutgers will have some problems. If they aren't called for fouls, I think their defense can make life more difficult for our scorers, and it will come down to whether Rutgers is able to shoot efficiently (seems like a duh, but it's really what most games boil down to).

 

[RUTravesty]

Except that the 44 and 33 were Garza, and the B1G is loaded with post players, so it actually is impressive. Center's feast because Michigan refuses to double consistently. If Rutgers doubles Garza, who are they letting shoot? Toussaint and Pemsl are the only safe options to leave open, and Toussaint in particular can get to the rim if he's not pressured.

The big question for me is going to be Rutgers' foul trouble. If Garza draws fouls like he has, Rutgers will have some problems. If they aren't called for fouls, I think their defense can make life more difficult for our scorers, and it will come down to whether Rutgers is able to shoot efficiently (seems like a duh, but it's really what most games boil down to).

Stats say Rutgers will double Garza but still be quick enough to close in on perimeter shooters to contest their shots. Rutgers gives up the most 3 pt attempts in the conference but has the 3rd best 3 pt D efficiency rating. Frederick is a little scary because he has such a quick release though. If there is any team this strategy won't work against its Iowa

 

[RUChoppin]

Well someones in for a rude awakening thats for sure, and it may just be the Scarlet Knights. Consider who each team has played for example. In Iowa alone, whom Michigan has played twice already, they have played a team ranked top 5, and for much of the season 1st in the nation in offensive efficiency. The fact that Rutgers has not yet faced Iowa once skews the numbers, certainly not that they are not a good defensive team, but it does skew the numbers. The fact that Iowa has been at the top of the nation in offensive efficiency all year is not only from them playing Michigan. Nobody has stopped the Garzilla. Tonight is your chance......

Agreed, which makes it a tough bet on the o/u.

Hard to predict whether offense or defense will win the day - whose strength tops the other's strength?

 

[HawkRugged17]

 

[kceasthawk]

Stats say Rutgers will double Garza but still be quick enough to close in on perimeter shooters to contest their shots. Rutgers gives up the most 3 pt attempts in the conference but has the 3rd best 3 pt D efficiency rating. Frederick is a little scary because he has such a quick release though. If there is any team this strategy won't work against its Iowa

It worked for Nebraska in Lincoln because Iowa went 4-33 from the 3 point line. Chances that happens in Carver for Iowa who i think is 2nd in the league in 3 point shooting are unlikely......

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

Stats say Rutgers will double Garza but still be quick enough to close in on perimeter shooters to contest their shots. Rutgers gives up the most 3 pt attempts in the conference but has the 3rd best 3 pt D efficiency rating. Frederick is a little scary because he has such a quick release though. If there is any team this strategy won't work against its Iowa

Yeah, that's fair, although I've seen studies show that 3pt% defense is pretty flukey. I think Iowa has tried to employ a similar strategy (allowing more outside looks), and it has worked so far, although mostly against teams that aren't strong 3 point shooting teams.

 

[kceasthawk]

Agreed, which makes it a tough bet on the o/u.

Hard to predict whether offense or defense will win the day - whose strength tops the other's strength?

I'd agree, and I'm not a betting man. I have no doubt that Rutgers will slow Iowa down to some extent. The biggest factors for me will be how hot Wieskamp and CJF are from outside, and if Rutgers gets in foul trouble trying to stop Garza. If Iowa strokes it from deep, and they get to the foul line and score points with the clock stopped, then Rutgers will be hard pressed to keep them under that magic number of 75 point. Iowa gets past the 75-80 point barrier and its chips and salsa time.......

 

[Scangg]

Iowa could always just have a lights out shooting night. It happens. Mathis and Young on Fredrick is going to be a very tough matchup. Mathis is strong and in your face. Young is quick and in your face. They have shut down the other teams best guard game after game. Love the Caleb matchup on Weiskamp. Caleb is 6'7 and long with guard skills. He is going to make it tough to get clean looks

Iowa is going to need someone else to step up and beat Rutgers. The depth is where Rutgers keeps winning as most teams dont have 4th and 5th options to rely on

 

[Degaz-RU]

I'd agree, and I'm not a betting man. I have no doubt that Rutgers will slow Iowa down to some extent. The biggest factors for me will be how hot Wieskamp and CJF are from outside, and if Rutgers gets in foul trouble trying to stop Garza. If Iowa strokes it from deep, and they get to the foul line and score points with the clock stopped, then Rutgers will be hard pressed to keep them under that magic number of 75 point. Iowa gets past the 75-80 point barrier and its chips and salsa time.......

Yeah, it's really that simple. Rutgers is 0-3 when we give up more than 70 points, and 14-1 when we give up less than that (and the one loss was 54-51 to Illinois).

OTOH, we are 8-1 when we SCORE more than 70 points, albeit those games were mostly against our lesser opponents (like Nebraska LOL). So we have ability to score in the 70s-80s, but we haven't gotten into a real shootout with any good teams, and thus, there's no comparator for whether we can "hang" with you. When we've scored 75+ points, it's almost always been a blowout in our favor.

By the way, in the "Prediction" thread on our hoops board, I predicted a 75-65 Iowa win.

 

[DaHawk56]

I think it's safe to give Rutgers defense some credit and assume they hold us under our average. Take a look at their B1G games this year:

vs Minnesota: 120 total points
vs Indiana: 109 total points
@ Illinois: 105 total points
vs Penn State: 133 total points
@ Nebraska: 141 total points
vs Wisconsin: 137 total points
@ Sparty: 142 total points

That's an average of 126.7 PPG in B1G play. Looking at it objectively, their length will probably slow down our offense and hold us below our average. Especially their 3 most recent games have been snoozers on the points side

Just an observation but it is interesting that the worst 3 3-point shooting percentage teams in the Big Ten are Rutgers, Indiana, and Illinois. Might account for why those games were so low scoring. Good defense in the paint combined with lack of 3 point shooters equals low scoring totals.

In contrast, Wisconsin is 4th, Michigan State 5th, and Nebraska and Minnesota are tied for 6th in 3 point shooting percentage, accounting for some of the higher scoring games.

Iowa is 2nd in 3 point shooting percentage in the Big Ten. And Garza is going to get his down low irrespective of how good Rutgers defense is in the paint.

I'm not a gambler, but I think this one goes over. The only games Iowa has played in this year that went under 140 are v. Texas Tech (133), @ Syracuse (122), v. Minnesota (134), v. Maryland (116), and @ Northwestern (137). Iowa has scored under 70 only twice this year (@ Syracuse and v. Maryland). The Maryland and Syracuse games (Iowa's two lowest scoring games of the year) were without CJ Fredrick (although Bohannon scored 17 against Syracuse).

The 2 games against Rutgers last year were 140 @ Rutgers and 158 @ Iowa.

If this is a closer game (winner by single digits), I think it goes over. I think it will be under if Iowa wins by more than 10 or if Iowa can't get it going from 3.

 

[PartyHawk420]

Very interesting observation and something I'll have to consider when Rutgers plays teams with poor 3pt shooting. I hope you're onto something and the hawks make em pay behind the arc!

I know our wings can ball but I figured their perimeter defense would give us fits and they'll let Luka have his if it means preventing CJ and JW getting wide open looks.

Good stuff!

Just an observation but it is interesting that the worst 3 3-point shooting percentage teams in the Big Ten are Rutgers, Indiana, and Illinois. Might account for why those games were so low scoring. Good defense in the paint combined with lack of 3 point shooters equals low scoring totals.

In contrast, Wisconsin is 4th, Michigan State 5th, and Nebraska and Minnesota are tied for 6th in 3 point shooting percentage, accounting for some of the higher scoring games.

Iowa is 2nd in 3 point shooting percentage in the Big Ten. And Garza is going to get his down low irrespective of how good Rutgers defense is in the paint.

I'm not a gambler, but I think this one goes over. The only games Iowa has played in this year that went under 140 are v. Texas Tech (133), @ Syracuse (122), v. Minnesota (134), v. Maryland (116), and @ Northwestern (137). Iowa has scored under 70 only twice this year (@ Syracuse and v. Maryland). The Maryland and Syracuse games (Iowa's two lowest scoring games of the year) were without CJ Fredrick (although Bohannon scored 17 against Syracuse).

The 2 games against Rutgers last year were 140 @ Rutgers and 158 @ Iowa.

If this is a closer game (winner by single digits), I think it goes over. I think it will be under if Iowa wins by more than 10 or if Iowa can't get it going from 3.

 

[kceasthawk]

Very interesting observation and something I'll have to consider when Rutgers plays teams with poor 3pt shooting. I hope you're onto something and the hawks make em pay behind the arc!

I know our wings can ball but I figured their perimeter defense would give us fits and they'll let Luka have his if it means preventing CJ and JW getting wide open looks.

Good stuff!

I highly doubt that they'll let Luka get his. This only worked for Michigan because they were red hot from three at home, AND they had a huge discrepency from the foul line at home. Didn't work in Carver when these things were not in their favor....

 

[toby83]

If i were Iowa fan makes sense to parlay the spread with the over

 

[DogBoyRy]

Good morning my fellow degenerates!

We'll see how much traction this thread gets but I figured an accumulative opinion on Hawkeye basketball could be beneficial to our wallets!

Odds are via EliteSportsBook:

Full Game Odds:
Moneyline: Rutgers +200 // Iowa -240
Point Spread: Rutgers +5.5 // Iowa -5.5
Over / Under: 139 total points (line has moved from 138 to 139)

1st Half Odds:
Moneyline: Rutgers +145 // Iowa -190
Point Spread: Rutgers +2.5 // Iowa -2.5
Over / Under: 65 total points

I'm personally betting the under of 138 but wondered if any of these figures jumped out to anyone.

Go Hawks!!

I’m betting ML against iowa every game starting tonight.
If i lose i’ll up the bet to cover previous loss.
If they win the rest it will be worth it.

 

[HawkRugged17]

Michigan I believe is last place defensively in the conference and 128th overall. If you think scoring on Michigan translates to scoring on Rutgers you are likely in for a rude awakening tonight. Rutgers is 8th in the country

 

[Hawk94Mn]

I’d take the over our transition defense is our weak link and they like to get up shots early in the shot clock just like us. They are a special defensive squad but we are at home and should make some hay at the free throw line.

I like when there’s documentation of my rightness, because it so rarely exist

 

[HawkRugged17]

Yeah, it's really that simple. Rutgers is 0-3 when we give up more than 70 points, and 14-1 when we give up less than that (and the one loss was 54-51 to Illinois).

OTOH, we are 8-1 when we SCORE more than 70 points, albeit those games were mostly against our lesser opponents (like Nebraska LOL). So we have ability to score in the 70s-80s, but we haven't gotten into a real shootout with any good teams, and thus, there's no comparator for whether we can "hang" with you. When we've scored 75+ points, it's almost always been a blowout in our favor.

By the way, in the "Prediction" thread on our hoops board, I predicted a 75-65 Iowa win.

That's 8-2 now, sir. Fun game! Go Hawks!