The Republican Party has largely refashioned itself in former president Donald Trump’s image in the past five years, with downballot candidates jockeying for his endorsement, hugging him tightly on the campaign trail and embracing his policy initiatives.
But many of these same candidates running for the Senate have not replicated the former president’s performance in the polls as Election Day approaches, a gap that is raising concerns among Republican campaigns and fundraisers who fear their candidates are running out of time to win over voters they should already have in hand.
The Senate map this year still heavily favors Republicans, with all of the most competitive races for seats held by Democrats, and polling suggests they are on track to flip the Senate red. But Republicans in seven of the eight key Senate races appear to be trailing Trump, and only one GOP Senate candidate — Montana Republican Tim Sheehy — consistently leads his Democratic opponent, Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), making control of the Senate more up in the air than might have been predicted.
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In the House, where Republicans hold a slim four-seat majority and control of the chamber will be hotly contested in November, the phenomenon of GOP candidates trailing Trump appears less pronounced and less likely to affect the outcome. Fewer voters appear willing to split their tickets and more Republicans than Democrats represent districts won by the opposite party’s president in 2020. House Republicans are defending 16 seats in districts Joe Biden won in 2020, while House Democrats are defending just five seats Trump won.
In red Ohio, where Trump has a nine percentage point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, Republican Bernie Moreno trailed Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown by four percentage points in an AARP poll. And in Nevada, Republican Sam Brown, a decorated military veteran, trailed first-term Sen. Jacky Rosen by 14 percentage points in a Fox News poll, even as Trump was within two percentage points of Harris.
Theories from political strategists as to why the candidates are underperforming Trump range from the candidates’ cash disadvantages, to Trump’s unmatched name ID among Republican voters to — in Democrats’ view — flaws with the candidates themselves.
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But Democrats running for the Senate and groups supporting them are outspending Republicans by a total of more than $200 million, including past spending and future reservations, in Montana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Maryland and Nevada — six of the eight key Senate races. The GOP has the spending edge only in Pennsylvania and Ohio, where they’re outspending Democrats by $41 million, according to data from the AdImpact tracking firm.
“We are on track to flip the Senate, but Senate Democrats’ massive cash advantage is a real problem,” National Republican Senatorial Committee Executive Director Jason Thielman said in a statement. “The biggest thing preventing Senate Republicans from having a great night in November is the cash crunch we currently face.”
On Tuesday, NRSC Chairman Steve Daines, the senator from Montana, urged his colleagues during a closed-door lunch to transfer campaign money to boost struggling GOP candidates. “I’m concerned about the financial gap,” Daines said before the meeting, mentioning that Harris recently transferred millions to Senate Democrats, which has gone unmatched by Trump.
Earlier this month, Harris announced a $25 million transfer to the committees that manage Democratic House and Senate candidates’ campaigns and other groups.
“Every race this November matters,” Harris Campaign Chair Jen O’Malley Dillon said in a statement, citing the need for a congressional majority to enact Harris’s agenda.
At the Tuesday lunch, NRSC leadership told Senate Republicans they could lose winnable races due to a lack of funding as their candidates face a barrage of negative advertising.
“A lot of our candidates have been outgunned during the summertime, when tens of millions of dollars have been spent pounding on them,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.) told The Post.
Democrats, however, are blaming the candidates themselves, who they are attacking in a battery of ads for past business connections to China, their past statements opposing abortion rights and other issues.
“Senate Republicans have a roster of deeply flawed recruits — their lies, scandals and baggage are repelling voters of every political persuasion, including many Republicans,” said David Bergstein, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee communications director, in a statement.
But many of these same candidates running for the Senate have not replicated the former president’s performance in the polls as Election Day approaches, a gap that is raising concerns among Republican campaigns and fundraisers who fear their candidates are running out of time to win over voters they should already have in hand.
The Senate map this year still heavily favors Republicans, with all of the most competitive races for seats held by Democrats, and polling suggests they are on track to flip the Senate red. But Republicans in seven of the eight key Senate races appear to be trailing Trump, and only one GOP Senate candidate — Montana Republican Tim Sheehy — consistently leads his Democratic opponent, Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), making control of the Senate more up in the air than might have been predicted.
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In the House, where Republicans hold a slim four-seat majority and control of the chamber will be hotly contested in November, the phenomenon of GOP candidates trailing Trump appears less pronounced and less likely to affect the outcome. Fewer voters appear willing to split their tickets and more Republicans than Democrats represent districts won by the opposite party’s president in 2020. House Republicans are defending 16 seats in districts Joe Biden won in 2020, while House Democrats are defending just five seats Trump won.
In red Ohio, where Trump has a nine percentage point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, Republican Bernie Moreno trailed Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown by four percentage points in an AARP poll. And in Nevada, Republican Sam Brown, a decorated military veteran, trailed first-term Sen. Jacky Rosen by 14 percentage points in a Fox News poll, even as Trump was within two percentage points of Harris.
Theories from political strategists as to why the candidates are underperforming Trump range from the candidates’ cash disadvantages, to Trump’s unmatched name ID among Republican voters to — in Democrats’ view — flaws with the candidates themselves.
Outspent
Democrats appear in grave danger of losing their 51-49 majority in the Senate, given that Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) is retiring and his seat will almost certainly flip to red. The Cook Political Report this week also shifted its ranking of the Montana Senate race from “toss-up” to “lean Republican.”ADVERTISING
But Democrats running for the Senate and groups supporting them are outspending Republicans by a total of more than $200 million, including past spending and future reservations, in Montana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Maryland and Nevada — six of the eight key Senate races. The GOP has the spending edge only in Pennsylvania and Ohio, where they’re outspending Democrats by $41 million, according to data from the AdImpact tracking firm.
“We are on track to flip the Senate, but Senate Democrats’ massive cash advantage is a real problem,” National Republican Senatorial Committee Executive Director Jason Thielman said in a statement. “The biggest thing preventing Senate Republicans from having a great night in November is the cash crunch we currently face.”
On Tuesday, NRSC Chairman Steve Daines, the senator from Montana, urged his colleagues during a closed-door lunch to transfer campaign money to boost struggling GOP candidates. “I’m concerned about the financial gap,” Daines said before the meeting, mentioning that Harris recently transferred millions to Senate Democrats, which has gone unmatched by Trump.
Earlier this month, Harris announced a $25 million transfer to the committees that manage Democratic House and Senate candidates’ campaigns and other groups.
“Every race this November matters,” Harris Campaign Chair Jen O’Malley Dillon said in a statement, citing the need for a congressional majority to enact Harris’s agenda.
At the Tuesday lunch, NRSC leadership told Senate Republicans they could lose winnable races due to a lack of funding as their candidates face a barrage of negative advertising.
“A lot of our candidates have been outgunned during the summertime, when tens of millions of dollars have been spent pounding on them,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.) told The Post.
Democrats, however, are blaming the candidates themselves, who they are attacking in a battery of ads for past business connections to China, their past statements opposing abortion rights and other issues.
“Senate Republicans have a roster of deeply flawed recruits — their lies, scandals and baggage are repelling voters of every political persuasion, including many Republicans,” said David Bergstein, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee communications director, in a statement.