Setting the Bar for QB1 this Fall (a little long)

iowaflash

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Thoughts on questions at the end of that post? Just trying to understand how long most Hawk fans might give a new QB, before deciding they've seen enough, and therefore setting sights on the next player's opportunity at QB1......
 

BBHawk

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Thoughts on questions at the end of that post? Just trying to understand how long most Hawk fans might give a new QB, before deciding they've seen enough, and therefore setting sights on the next player's opportunity at QB1......
That you have doubts about whether he was injured ends the discussion for me.
 
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jonesy5960

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Why do we have to assume this? We haven't seen anything from either AP or JL that says either has more upside than SP. Are you assuming that they do? If so, why? And what makes you think that SP has hit his ceiling? What would you do if he suddenly started playing better when he had 3 - 5 seconds to get his throws off?

Asking for a friend.

😉
Yeah. We haven't really seen anything from any of the QB's that shows us they can even be consistently effective game managers at this point. Hopefully that won't be the case in the Fall. In the meantime a decent offensive line wouldn't hurt either.
 
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jonesy5960

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With a very good OL, Petras might be excellent at QB. Fact is we don’t have a very good OL so need a more mobile QB in the pocket as well as a threat to run every now and then.

it’s that simple. Labas, you’re the starter.
OL was bad but there is nothing we have seen to tell us that Petras will ever be an excellent QB. Too many poor throws/lack of vision/awareness when he did have time. I'd settle for pretty good at this point. That would be an upgrade from the last 2 years.
 

BBHawk

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No problem, I think we’re all in agreement that SP wasn’t at his best during that NW game 1st Qtr…
He was terrible. But from all appearances he couldn't even extend his arm to pass. Iowa was just lucky to have a great defense and a qb who could come in and manage a win. But it was anything but pretty.
 

ICWestfan

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Yeah. We haven't really seen anything from any of the QB's that shows us they can even be consistently effective game managers at this point. Hopefully that won't be the case in the Fall. In the meantime a decent offensive line wouldn't hurt either.
I'll be pleasantly surprised if the QB next season is anyone not named Spencer. It goes against everything KF stands for when it comes to QB - go with the proven starter until it becomes apparent, they can't do the job.
 

The Deplorable Sleeping Dog

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I'll be pleasantly surprised if the QB next season is anyone not named Spencer. It goes against everything KF stands for when it comes to QB - go with the proven starter until it becomes apparent, they can't do the job.
You don't think Spencer has demonstrated he cannot do the job? Spencer started that last game because Alex was even worse, significantly worse.

Your claim about sticking with starters just states an axiom that most coaches follow. The freak show in Purdue is a tiny minority.
 

iowaflash

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You don't think Spencer has demonstrated he cannot do the job? Spencer started that last game because Alex was even worse, significantly worse.

Your claim about sticking with starters just states an axiom that most coaches follow. The freak show in Purdue is a tiny minority.
Please reveal your source as to how you know Alex was significantly worse than SP in pre-bowl practices?
 

The Deplorable Sleeping Dog

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Simple inferences. Spencer was already to play against Nebraska. Probably Minnesota as well. I was obvious the coaches were trying to give the job to Alex, but he fumbled it away with something like 40% completions in the Minnesota and Illinois and Nebraska.

They were just stuck with Spencer as the best of poor options.

I am also basing my opinion on the coach's objective is to win the most games, and coming in, each game. They are not playing the guy that reduces the chance of victory.

Neither has much relevance to Iowa's future. SS Joey Throws set to dock next month.
 

iowaflash

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Simple inferences. Spencer was already to play against Nebraska. Probably Minnesota as well. I was obvious the coaches were trying to give the job to Alex, but he fumbled it away with something like 40% completions in the Minnesota and Illinois and Nebraska.

They were just stuck with Spencer as the best of poor options.

I am also basing my opinion on the coach's objective is to win the most games, and coming in, each game. They are not playing the guy that reduces the chance of victory.

Neither has much relevance to Iowa's future. SS Joey Throws set to dock next month.
Beg to disagree. Battling the flu, Alex would have ended the Nebraska first half within 1 point, had the referee not stolen a true touchdown from LaPorta. SP did play well in 2nd half, which ended up being his best play during entire last half of Hawks schedule, however. And yes, coaches want to play QB that doesn’t reduce chances of victory, i.e. see NW, Illinois, and Minn games won. Despite non-stellar stats, that I seem to hear all the time, why would you NOT give an experienced QB like AP more game time evaluation opportunities when fact is he’s the more mobile QB and he WINS games he starts and finishes? Proven in 2021.

I get the JL enthusiasm and potential. Like many Hawk fans, I also hope the learning curve is swift and continues to point higher for him, being ready in the fall for the big field. If he’s better than AP, then by all means he should be the starter in 2022, assuming SP looks like same SP we’ve seen the past two years. But if JL needs more seasoning, he needs to do it at QB2 position, as there’s lots of reasons why rest of the team returning will help us contend for another B10 West title coming up….
 
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Frosty7130

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Beg to disagree. Battling the flu, Alex would have ended the Nebraska first half within 1 point, had the referee not stolen a true touchdown from LaPorta. SP did play well in 2nd half, which ended up being his best play during entire last half of Hawks schedule, however. And yes, coaches want to play QB that doesn’t reduce chances of victory, i.e. see NW, Illinois, and Minn games won. Despite non-stellar stats, that I seem to hear all the time, why would you NOT give an experienced QB like AP more game time evaluation opportunities when fact is he’s the more mobile QB and he WINS games he starts and finishes? Proven in 2021.

I get the JL enthusiasm and potential. Like many Hawk fans, I also hope the learning curve is swift and continues to point higher for him, being ready in the fall for the big field. If he’s better than AP, then by all means he should be the starter in 2022, assuming SP looks like same SP we’ve seen the past two years. But if JL needs more seasoning, he needs to do it at QB2 position, as there’s lots of reasons why rest of the team returning will help us contend for another B10 West title coming up….
AP is not as mobile as you think he is, and his pocket presence is just as bad, if not worse, than SP's, resulting in him taking more unnecessary sacks.
 
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iowaflash

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AP is not as mobile as you think he is, and his pocket presence is just as bad, if not worse, than SP's, resulting in him taking more unnecessary sacks.
I watched all of the 2020 and 2021 games. Please be specific on examples, in those where AP played, where you believe his pocket presence was just as bad if not worse than SP, resulting in him taking more unnecessary sacks? Also remind me how many 2021 Iowa losses you attribute to AP’s playing performance?
 

Frosty7130

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I watched all of the 2020 and 2021 games. Please be specific on examples, in those where AP played, where you believe his pocket presence was just as bad if not worse than SP, resulting in him taking more unnecessary sacks? Also remind me how many 2021 Iowa losses you attribute to AP’s playing performance?
As did I. He took 2 against Nebraska and Wisconsin where he scrambled away from his protection into the arms of a defender, another against Minnesota and Illinois. He was given the green light against Nebby to tuck it and run when needed, and still refused to, which is part of why he was pulled at half.

If we're going the pure wins route, SP still has him beat there with 15 to his 4 (and giving AP the Nebraska game is generous).

Even if AP did have a better pocket presence, it's offset by his inaccuracy. As bad as Petras is, a sub-.500 completion percentage is terrible. The times he does make the throw (barring when he throws it right at a defender), it's often wobbly and off-target (LaPorta still needs to catch, but if that ball in the EZ vs Nebraska is on his chest and not his back hip, there's no way he drops it).

I get you want someone to unseat Petras (I do too), but Padilla is not that guy.
 

iowaflash

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As did I. He took 2 against Nebraska and Wisconsin where he scrambled away from his protection into the arms of a defender, another against Minnesota and Illinois. He was given the green light against Nebby to tuck it and run when needed, and still refused to, which is part of why he was pulled at half.

If we're going the pure wins route, SP still has him beat there with 15 to his 4 (and giving AP the Nebraska game is generous).

Even if AP did have a better pocket presence, it's offset by his inaccuracy. As bad as Petras is, a sub-.500 completion percentage is terrible. The times he does make the throw (barring when he throws it right at a defender), it's often wobbly and off-target (LaPorta still needs to catch, but if that ball in the EZ vs Nebraska is on his chest and not his back hip, there's no way he drops it).

I get you want someone to unseat Petras (I do too), but Padilla is not that guy.
Might need to fact check those sack stats on AP. Against Wisky, AP got into the game with less than seven minutes remaining, but he was still able to throw for almost 50% of the yards SP threw for in 3.5+ quarters, and was only sacked once after SP was sacked 5 times in that game. The NE game, he may have been sacked twice, but you know that AP did move the ball downfield, and it should have only been a 1 point game at half, when he wasn’t allowed to return. Who told you AP “refused” to run when given green light? If it’s not a designed QB run play that’s called, then running is discretionary, isn’t it? Yes Illinois sacked him 2 times, while Alex led offense to the WIN, so big deal. Alex was never sacked more than 2 times in any game, and from my vantage point, didn’t get sacked at all against MINN, where you indicated he did.

Your second paragraph only confirms that when AP played the most in any game, IOWA result was a win.

Your third paragraph doesn’t acknowledge AP’s willingness to throw down field, which would be attributing factor to his slightly lower completion percentage than SP. It didn’t seem that SP was as naturally inclined to throw down field.

You’re right that I believe we’ve seen enough of SP’s abilities over 2 years, and maybe he’s too injury prone, if others want make excuses for his performance. Beathard was hurt in nearly every game in 2015, but still got the job done, game after game. I think most on this board are ignoring the Iowa wins when AP got his limited opportunities in 2021, and only want to point to less than stellar stats, as a reason to keep him on the sidelines despite 3 years in the program. For those putting so much into the stats, here’s one for you that I read earlier….you might think that there’s not a lot of difference between SP’s 11 yds per play average, and AP’s 13 yds per play average, but if AP’s average was over more games, he would rank inside the top 38% of D1 QB average…..not too bad for an offense that aspires to be in the top half of ranking statistics…..
 
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Frosty7130

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Might need to fact check those sack stats on AP. Against Wisky, AP got into the game with less than seven minutes remaining, but he was still able to throw for almost 50% of the yards SP threw for in 3.5+ quarters, and was only sacked once after SP was sacked 5 times in that game.

Padilla was sacked twice, the specific instance I'm referring to is incorrectly listed as a rushing attempt immediately before the next sack. He had an okay, not great pocket, but instead scrambled to his left directly into the arms of a defender.

Also, this was against what was clearly Wisconsin's 2nd string defense playing prevent coverage.

The NE game, he may have been sacked twice, but you know that AP did move the ball downfield, and it should have only been a 1 point game at half, when he wasn’t allowed to return. Who told you AP “refused” to run when given green light? If it’s not a designed QB run play that’s called, then running is discretionary, isn’t it?

We had over 200 yards of offense in the 2nd half against Nebraska compared to 150 in the first, and half of that came on the first drive of the game. After that, Padilla became very jittery and nearly threw a few bad INT's. That came from a player source, and I believe was also mentioned on Twitter during the game. Running is not discretionary when the coaching staff actively tells you to run if your options weren't there and there was a wide open running lane in the middle of the field. Instead, he often makes poor decisions with the ball.


Exhibit A (5:44 of the linked video):
AP has a very clear running lane underneath, instead he launches it late to the sideline to a double-covered Ragaini that nearly gets picked.

Your second paragraph only confirms that when AP played the most in any game, IOWA result was a win.

This would make sense if Petras wasn't also 15-4 as a starter (not giving him NW). Also keep in mind two of the 3 wins attributed to AP were against sub .500 teams.

Your third paragraph doesn’t acknowledge AP’s willingness to throw down field, which would be attributing factor to his slightly lower completion percentage than SP. It didn’t seem that SP was as naturally inclined to throw down field.

Any perceived "willingness to throw downfield" is likely placebo, considering this guy charts all of our QBs throws for BHGP, and at best, they both throw 20+ yard passes at the same clip, and at worst, the numbers favor SP (slightly). And again, despite his faults, SP is far better equipped as a QB to make said throws, with a stronger arm and (marginally) better ball placement.

You’re right that I believe we’ve seen enough of SP’s abilities over 2 years, and maybe he’s too injury prone, if others want make excuses for his performance. Beathard was hurt in nearly every game in 2015, but still got the job done, game after game. I think most on this board are ignoring the Iowa wins when AP got his limited opportunities in 2021, and only want to point to less than stellar stats, as a reason to keep him on the sidelines despite 3 years in the program. For those putting so much into the stats, here’s one for you that I read earlier….you might think that there’s not a lot of difference between SP’s 11 yds per play average, and AP’s 13 yds per play average, but if AP’s average was over more games, he would rank inside the top 38% of D1 QB average…..not too bad for an offense that aspires to be in the top half of ranking statistics…..

Nowhere was I making excuses for SP. He's average when healthy, well-below when not, and is not equipped to deal with subpar pass protection, which we were plagued with most of the season, regardless of the QB. Nobody is ignoring those wins, but I think you're grossly overestimating AP's factor in those, especially the Nebraska and Illinois games, the latter of which he was absolutely abysmal for. Also not sure where you're getting those YPP numbers because they're wildly off for both guys. There's not even a team in the entire country to eclipse 9 YPP in the last 10 years, and you might not be able to find one ever.

SP averaged 6.5 YPA to AP's 5.7 YPA passing, and both guys had negative rushing averages.

Iowa offense as a whole avg'd 4.62 YPP with SP, and 5.03 with AP, giving both guys the Nebraska game for fairness' sake.
 
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HawkOn15

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Might need to fact check those sack stats on AP. Against Wisky, AP got into the game with less than seven minutes remaining, but he was still able to throw for almost 50% of the yards SP threw for in 3.5+ quarters, and was only sacked once after SP was sacked 5 times in that game. The NE game, he may have been sacked twice, but you know that AP did move the ball downfield, and it should have only been a 1 point game at half, when he wasn’t allowed to return. Who told you AP “refused” to run when given green light? If it’s not a designed QB run play that’s called, then running is discretionary, isn’t it? Yes Illinois sacked him 2 times, while Alex led offense to the WIN, so big deal. Alex was never sacked more than 2 times in any game, and from my vantage point, didn’t get sacked at all against MINN, where you indicated he did.

Padilla was absolutely sacked 2 times against Wisconsin he was lucky the score keeper counted his panic scrambling as a loss.​


2nd & 4 at IOWA 21​

(6:17 - 4th) Alex Padilla run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 18
  • 3rd & 7 at IOWA 18​

    (6:10 - 4th) Alex Padilla sacked by Noah Burks for 0 yards to the Iowa 11
 

iowaflash

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Padilla was sacked twice, the specific instance I'm referring to is incorrectly listed as a rushing attempt immediately before the next sack. He had an okay, not great pocket, but instead scrambled to his left directly into the arms of a defender.

Also, this was against what was clearly Wisconsin's 2nd string defense playing prevent coverage.



We had over 200 yards of offense in the 2nd half against Nebraska compared to 150 in the first, and half of that came on the first drive of the game. After that, Padilla became very jittery and nearly threw a few bad INT's. That came from a player source, and I believe was also mentioned on Twitter during the game. Running is not discretionary when the coaching staff actively tells you to run if your options weren't there and there was a wide open running lane in the middle of the field. Instead, he often makes poor decisions with the ball.



Exhibit A (5:44 of the linked video):
AP has a very clear running lane underneath, instead he launches it late to the sideline to a double-covered Ragaini that nearly gets picked.



This would make sense if Petras wasn't also 15-4 as a starter (not giving him NW). Also keep in mind two of the 3 wins attributed to AP were against sub .500 teams.



Any perceived "willingness to throw downfield" is likely placebo, considering this guy charts all of our QBs throws for BHGP, and at best, they both throw 20+ yard passes at the same clip, and at worst, the numbers favor SP (slightly). And again, despite his faults, SP is far better equipped as a QB to make said throws, with a stronger arm and (marginally) better ball placement.



Nowhere was I making excuses for SP. He's average when healthy, well-below when not, and is not equipped to deal with subpar pass protection, which we were plagued with most of the season, regardless of the QB. Nobody is ignoring those wins, but I think you're grossly overestimating AP's factor in those, especially the Nebraska and Illinois games, the latter of which he was absolutely abysmal for. Also not sure where you're getting those YPP numbers because they're wildly off for both guys. There's not even a team in the entire country to eclipse 9 YPP in the last 10 years, and you might not be able to find one ever.

SP averaged 6.5 YPA to AP's 5.7 YPA passing, and both guys had negative rushing averages.

Iowa offense as a whole avg'd 4.62 YPP with SP, and 5.03 with AP, giving both guys the Nebraska game for fairness' sake.
Also not sure where you're getting those YPP numbers because they're wildly off for both guys. There's not even a team in the entire country to eclipse 9 YPP in the last 10 years, and you might not be able to find one ever.
Padilla? Well, Padilla hasn’t played in enough games for the NCAA to rank him but we can compare the statistics in the 8.5 games Petras has played to the stats in the 3.5 games that Padilla has played, and throw some advanced stats in there as well.

COMPLETION %YARDS PER COMPLETIONYARDS PER GAMETD%INT%SACK%
PETRAS58.111.311793.82.59.0
PADILLA49.313.091532.41.26.7
TD%: Touchdowns / Passes Attempted
INT%: Interceptions Thrown / Passes Attempted
Sack%: Times Sacked / Passes Attempted + Times Sacked


That’s the math. Nothing but facts here. Petras is going to complete a higher percentage of passes and is more likely to throw a touchdown. He’s also twice as likely to throw an interception, gets sacked 34% more than Padilla, and that yards per completion stat is… wow. 11.31 to 13.09 may not seem like much but if you look at the national rankings, 13.09 yards per completion would put Padilla at 38th nationally (compared to Petras' ranking of 91st). That's a pretty significant jump in yards per completion. Petras completes more passes but they go for fewer yards.

If the narrative is “Petras is the safer bet” uh… the statistics don’t really support that claim. He’s more interception-prone and takes more sacks. Sacks, of course, can lead to lost fumbles, like the one he lost against Wisconsin. He throws more touchdowns, yes, but at the cost of a higher turnover percentage.

Above cut and paste is from "Go Iowa Awesome" blog by Mike Jones on November 31, 2021. And my bad, the specific statistic I accidentally interpreted wrong was average yards per completion, not average yards per play......does this clarify a bit better Frosty?
 

HawkOn15

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Padilla? Well, Padilla hasn’t played in enough games for the NCAA to rank him but we can compare the statistics in the 8.5 games Petras has played to the stats in the 3.5 games that Padilla has played, and throw some advanced stats in there as well.

COMPLETION %YARDS PER COMPLETIONYARDS PER GAMETD%INT%SACK%
PETRAS58.111.311793.82.59.0
PADILLA49.313.091532.41.26.7
TD%: Touchdowns / Passes Attempted
INT%: Interceptions Thrown / Passes Attempted
Sack%: Times Sacked / Passes Attempted + Times Sacked


That’s the math. Nothing but facts here. Petras is going to complete a higher percentage of passes and is more likely to throw a touchdown. He’s also twice as likely to throw an interception, gets sacked 34% more than Padilla, and that yards per completion stat is… wow. 11.31 to 13.09 may not seem like much but if you look at the national rankings, 13.09 yards per completion would put Padilla at 38th nationally (compared to Petras' ranking of 91st). That's a pretty significant jump in yards per completion. Petras completes more passes but they go for fewer yards.

If the narrative is “Petras is the safer bet” uh… the statistics don’t really support that claim. He’s more interception-prone and takes more sacks. Sacks, of course, can lead to lost fumbles, like the one he lost against Wisconsin. He throws more touchdowns, yes, but at the cost of a higher turnover percentage.

Above cut and paste is from "Go Iowa Awesome" blog by Mike Jones on November 31, 2021. And my bad, the specific statistic I accidentally interpreted wrong was average yards per completion, not average yards per play......does this clarify a bit better Frosty?
Padilla got the benefit of playing against much easier defenses.
 

HawkOn15

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Minnesota one of the easier defenses? Easier than Indiana and Colorado St?
At the time Indiana was projected to be one of the top defenses in the B10. Early in the year our OL was Swiss cheese letting everyone run through. They finally picked it up against Illinois and Padilla was atrocious. Padilla got to go against three cupcake defenses of Illinois, NW, and Nebraska.
 

Frosty7130

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Padilla? Well, Padilla hasn’t played in enough games for the NCAA to rank him but we can compare the statistics in the 8.5 games Petras has played to the stats in the 3.5 games that Padilla has played, and throw some advanced stats in there as well.

COMPLETION %YARDS PER COMPLETIONYARDS PER GAMETD%INT%SACK%
PETRAS58.111.311793.82.59.0
PADILLA49.313.091532.41.26.7
TD%: Touchdowns / Passes Attempted
INT%: Interceptions Thrown / Passes Attempted
Sack%: Times Sacked / Passes Attempted + Times Sacked


That’s the math. Nothing but facts here. Petras is going to complete a higher percentage of passes and is more likely to throw a touchdown. He’s also twice as likely to throw an interception, gets sacked 34% more than Padilla, and that yards per completion stat is… wow. 11.31 to 13.09 may not seem like much but if you look at the national rankings, 13.09 yards per completion would put Padilla at 38th nationally (compared to Petras' ranking of 91st). That's a pretty significant jump in yards per completion. Petras completes more passes but they go for fewer yards.
It does, thank you.

However, I'd argue those are some extremely incremental gains to definitively establish AP as more productive. Essentially those numbers are saying that in 100 attempts, Petras is going to throw for roughly 4 TDs, 2-3 INTs, and take 9 sacks, whereas Padilla will throw 2-3 TDs, 1 INT, and take 7 sacks. But that's also not taking into account the several dropped INTs Padilla threw directly at defenders, including 2 against Nebraska and 1 vs Minnesota.

Another advanced metric would be PFF, which takes into account each player's responsibility on a given play and how well they execute their portion of it, and while I don't think it's the gospel (it somehow puts Petras in the top half of the B1G QBs), each week of the season and the season overall had Petras with a higher grade than Padilla as well.

And again, AP's marginally higher YPC is offset by the markedly lower completion percentage, passer rating, and YPA. Which IMO is a very poor fit for our offense. Yards or no, low completion percentage = poor efficiency = more 3-and-outs = tired defense. We're not designed to be a boom or bust offense, nor is our defense built to complement that.
Minnesota one of the easier defenses? Easier than Indiana and Colorado St?
No, but easier than, or at the very least, equal to ISU, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Michigan. NW would be comparable to Maryland or Kent State, Illinois and half of Nebraska would be mid-tier like Indiana, Kentucky, or Colorado State (surprisingly solid D for an ultimately bad team, but their strength at rushing the passer was matched against our weakness of protecting them).

It's definitely an interesting argument to be had, but I'd consider myself firmly in the camp of Petras being the better of two bad options at this point so far.
 

iowaflash

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It does, thank you.

However, I'd argue those are some extremely incremental gains to definitively establish AP as more productive. Essentially those numbers are saying that in 100 attempts, Petras is going to throw for roughly 4 TDs, 2-3 INTs, and take 9 sacks, whereas Padilla will throw 2-3 TDs, 1 INT, and take 7 sacks. But that's also not taking into account the several dropped INTs Padilla threw directly at defenders, including 2 against Nebraska and 1 vs Minnesota.

Another advanced metric would be PFF, which takes into account each player's responsibility on a given play and how well they execute their portion of it, and while I don't think it's the gospel (it somehow puts Petras in the top half of the B1G QBs), each week of the season and the season overall had Petras with a higher grade than Padilla as well.

And again, AP's marginally higher YPC is offset by the markedly lower completion percentage, passer rating, and YPA. Which IMO is a very poor fit for our offense. Yards or no, low completion percentage = poor efficiency = more 3-and-outs = tired defense. We're not designed to be a boom or bust offense, nor is our defense built to complement that.

No, but easier than, or at the very least, equal to ISU, Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Michigan. NW would be comparable to Maryland or Kent State, Illinois and half of Nebraska would be mid-tier like Indiana, Kentucky, or Colorado State (surprisingly solid D for an ultimately bad team, but their strength at rushing the passer was matched against our weakness of protecting them).

It's definitely an interesting argument to be had, but I'd consider myself firmly in the camp of Petras being the better of two bad options at this point so far.
Actually, in final team total defense, both Illinois (win) and Nebraska (win) ranked a tad bit higher than Purdue (loss), and against two teams with final team total defenses ranked in the top 3, SP couldn’t last the whole game against Wisconsin (loss) whereas AP lasted the whole game against Minnesota (won). Head to head, Minnesota beat Wisconsin…..

Micro analyzing a play here, and a play there is ridiculous, when we all root for Iowa to win the game. Screw the stats. Winning is everything, period. I can’t believe there isn’t more people on this board that believe AP hasn’t absolutely earned a longer game time look, based on how directed the offense in games played in 2021, which just so happens to have been converted to IOWA WINS in the books (and no losses). How do you (everyone on this message board) tell an experienced, loyal QB with better mobility than SP, and no losses he shouldn’t get a longer look?
 
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Frosty7130

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Actually, in final team total defense, both Illinois (win) and Nebraska (win) ranked a tad bit higher than Purdue (loss), and against two teams with final team total defenses ranked in the top 3, SP couldn’t last the whole game against Wisconsin (loss) whereas AP lasted the whole game against Minnesota (won). Head to head, Minnesota beat Wisconsin…..

Except, again, Wisconsin's first team D was not in when AP went in, and they were playing prevent defense up 20 in the 4th. It was garbage time. That's like saying SP couldn't last 4 quarters against Maryland.

Minnesota vs Wisconsin has absolutely zero bearing on this, because neither SP nor AP play for those teams, and their game affects neither of them at all.

Micro analyzing a play here, and a play there is ridiculous, when we all root for Iowa to win the game. Screw the stats. Winning is everything, period. I can’t believe there isn’t more people on this board that don’t think AP is deserving a longer game time look, based on how directed the offense in games played in 2021, which just so happens to have been converted to IOWA WINS in the books (and no losses). How do you (everyone on this message board) tell an experienced, loyal QB with mobility and no losses he shouldn’t get a longer look?
It's not micro-analyzing, it's pointing out very apparent, significant gaps in his game. And again with the wins thing, you cannot constantly tout AP's "wins" without looking at his performance in ALL of them, the opponents they came against, and SP's comparable results.

AP is not "mobile", he is only moreso than Petras, otherwise he would not have negative yards on nearly 20 rushing attempts. He is experienced, but again, not moreso than Petras, and not sure what loyalty has to do with it, considering SP is as well, and this is D1, FBS football. You don't deserve chances to start, you earn them.

I don't tell AP anything because I'm not a coach for Iowa, and neither are you. But I come to my conclusion because of how he progressed through those wins.

He started solid against NW. He looked poised, on target, and provided a spark. But we still only mustered 17 pts and sputtered in the 2nd half. A lot of that can be attributed to BF and the OL, but those problems existed with Spencer too.

Minnesota exemplifies his boom-or-bust performance. 200 yards passing, 2 TDs, but a sub .500 completion percentage, survived a few really bad decisions, and benefited from almost 100 yards of YAC. Charlie Jones was probably the 2nd-most wide open WR we had all season on his TD, and KJ's TD was all him, considering it was a quick boot-screen, and Jack Plumb may as well have been a traffic cone out there.

He took a MAJOR step back against Illinois, with a terrible 35.3% completion percentage, less than 100 yards, and a bad pick.

Started good against Nebraska with the scripted first drive, and after that, fell apart in the 2nd quarter, with the previously mentioned unnecessary sack, two near picks, and refusal to tuck and run.

At that point, SP was healthy, and reinserted. The Iowa staff gave AP every opportunity to take the starting job and run with it, and he didn't rise to the challenge. I say again, while SP's performance leaves very much to be desired, AP has done nothing to stand out above him. Here's to Joey Labas passing them both.
 
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herkyhawk00

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Thoughts on questions at the end of that post? Just trying to understand how long most Hawk fans might give a new QB, before deciding they've seen enough, and therefore setting sights on the next player's opportunity at QB1......
I think fans were very patient with SP despite him coming in with a lot of excitement and fanfare. Those most critical of him gave him at least a 6-7 games while many gave him a full season and still, many more have given him two seasons.
 
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iowaflash

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I’m a Padilla fan because he targets WRs and throws a more accurate ball (sometimes accurate to the other team). With that said, I do need to go back and watch the Illinois game as his numbers were absolutely terrible. He was victimized by drops in the NW and Minnesota games. He was not nearly as bad as people want to say in the Nebraska game if you rewatch.
According to PFF in 2021, Iowa had more drops than any other team in the B10 West (25).

People who tend to only look at stats note that against ILL, Padilla had a particularly bad completion day, going 6 for 17. However, those that actually watched the game will likely concede that there were as many as 7 drops that were on target and not caught contributing to those stats, and all of these were highlighted in a post-game article written by Chad Leistikow on Nov 22, 2021.

He said, “I think it’s reasonable to say that three or four of the above seven passes would have been caught in most circumstances. By my math, that would’ve changed Padilla’s day to 10-for-17 (59%) for 105 yards and extended at least three Iowa drives.”

He also went on to say, “All in all, Padilla ran the offense well and actually had a higher PFF grade than he did last week vs. Minnesota. Padilla can learn from his mistakes, like sliding too soon on a potential first-down scramble. He can also take some heat off his short throws. But the sophomore definitely deserves another start Friday against Nebraska.”

Unfortunately leading up to the Nebraska game, Alex was battling the flu, and we all know that his 4th down LaPorta TD was called back by a referee (bogus call saying he didn’t hang on to the ball long enough in the EZ), and as a result the score at halftime was 14-6.

KF made the QB switch and admittedly Petras did well, keeping our winning streak against NE intact. If Petras could be counted on to play more consistently, like he did in the 2nd half of the Nebraska game, his long-term QB1 ability may not be questioned as much IMO.

 
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WinOneThisCentury II

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I blame the coaches and Brian Ferentz. I don't think they spent enough time with Petras last year teaching him to throw from his back. With the way our tackles played in pass protection against the good teams we faced...the only way Petras would have been better, would be if he could throw one through the legs of the defenders that were either chasing him or hitting him.
 

sober_teacher

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I blame the coaches and Brian Ferentz. I don't think they spent enough time with Petras last year teaching him to throw from his back. With the way our tackles played in pass protection against the good teams we faced...the only way Petras would have been better, would be if he could throw one through the legs of the defenders that were either chasing him or hitting him.

What I hoped to hear from Spencer is that he was working to improve on “off-schedule” plays. Give him a clean pocket and he’s fine. Take that away and he struggles.
 
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Hwk-I-St8

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Thoughts on questions at the end of that post? Just trying to understand how long most Hawk fans might give a new QB, before deciding they've seen enough, and therefore setting sights on the next player's opportunity at QB1......

What do you mean how long Hawk fans might give a new QB? Do we suddenly have the reigns here and we can choose who is under center? Did I miss that??? Seriously, are you asking how long before each of us turns into whiny little bitches who turn every thread into a QB bash fest....cause that's about the level of our control and clearly plenty of fans have been there for quite some time.

I was not happy with QB play last fall regardless of whether it was SP or AP out there. That tells me one of two things....either both of them are terrible or there were other factors. I can't say definitively which is true, but it doesn't really matter since it's the coaches who are going to decide who's under center this coming fall.
 
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WinOneThisCentury II

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What I hoped to hear from Spencer is that he was working to improve on “off-schedule” plays. Give him a clean pocket and he’s fine. Take that away and he struggles.
He's not going to make too many off schedule plays where he buys time with his legs. Would it be great if he could do the Ben Rothlisberger side step and have that presence in the pocket to just buy a wiggle of time...sure...Spencer hasn't shown that kind of calm in the pocket. What he has shown, is that he can throw on the boot action out of play action...and he will stand in there and deliver a ball with guys coming at him. He made several throws like that last year.

I don't think anyone on here doesn't recognize he needs to improve under pressure...but you can't expect an offense designed to operate on play action...to be wildly effective if the running game sucks. Against good teams, we couldn't run the ball. That's a problem.

It will be interesting to see if BF changes his mentality a little this year. One of the things I really like with the O'Keefe offensive strategy was that he would throw you out of a loaded box. I can remember several games where Iowa opened with 7 straight passes or had stretches where they threw the ball every down. It forced the defense to change what they were doing. BF's built this offense around constant threat of running on every down...and he hasn't been willing to sling it around. I'm sure the offensive line struggles last year was a big reason for that...and his QBs haven't been great in pass completion percentage.
 
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sober_teacher

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He's not going to make too many off schedule plays where he buys time with his legs. Would it be great if he could do the Ben Rothlisberger side step and have that presence in the pocket to just buy a wiggle of time...sure...Spencer hasn't shown that kind of calm in the pocket. What he has shown, is that he can throw on the boot action out of play action...and he will stand in there and deliver a ball with guys coming at him. He made several throws like that last year.

I don't think anyone on here doesn't recognize he needs to improve under pressure...but you can't expect an offense designed to operate on play action...to be wildly effective if the running game sucks. Against good teams, we couldn't run the ball. That's a problem.

It will be interesting to see if BF changes his mentality a little this year. One of the things I really like with the O'Keefe offensive strategy was that he would throw you out of a loaded box. I can remember several games where Iowa opened with 7 straight passes or had stretches where they threw the ball every down. It forced the defense to change what they were doing. BF's built this offense around constant threat of running on every down...and he hasn't been willing to sling it around. I'm sure the offensive line struggles last year was a big reason for that...and his QBs haven't been great in pass completion percentage.


Right and I didn’t mean he needs to make plays with his legs. Like you mentioned, his pocket presence is lacking, and that sort of thing is what I wish he’d work on (or mention it as a point of emphasis if he was). Having that pocket presence to recognize he needs to get rid of it quickly, throw it off balance at times, etc. he’s shown there isn’t a throw he can’t make if he has time to set his feet and step into a throw. But he struggled, especially with a poor o line play to have that last year.
 

BVHawkeye

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Disclosure: many of my last season posts leaned toward giving AP more game time look and evaluation, based on his performance with opportunities when called upon in 2021.

KF recently acknowledged we must have better QB play, and an Open Competition including JL will be embraced with this Spring/Summer workouts. No Iowa QB in transfer portal is good in the sense that all 3 are well familiar with the Iowa playbook, which gives more hope for better execution in 2022. After much thinking about how much eligibility each QB has remaining, plus what we already know about SP’s ceiling over the past couple of years, here’s what I believe the dynamics should be, while KF and BF observes the progression growth and development of SP, AP, and JL…..

If SP cannot show that he’s at least 25% better than BOTH AP and JL, then he should NOT be named the starting QB in August. His winning record argument entitling him to start is skewed, because it can be debated that almost any P5 average QB could have had the same or better record, with this supporting cast. We know what we know about SP in almost two full years of play, and what he has left at Iowa, which is his Senior year coming up and a possible Covid year afterward.

If AP or JL is easily within 25% of SP, whichever one is more impressive, gets QB1 opportunity, because either will grow into the position to exceed SP’s ceiling, and either has more upside in terms of eligibility, assuming May and Marco need adequate time to learn and practice for the big stage. If both AP and JL are within 25% of SP, then you have QB1 and QB2 for 2022, and SP becomes emergency QB3, good teammate calling in signals, and player/coach in other meaningful ways. SP shouldn’t feel sad about this relegated role. He did the best he could (like Jake Christensen), wanted Iowa to succeed, but needs to accept a new way to help the team providing depth. Also, his Mom will be spared future criticism of her son in the newspapers or message boards.

So there it is, and it’s very simple. If we would have had better (expected) QB1 play last season, at the very least we would’ve kept the Purdue, Wisconsin, and Michigan games much closer, and we would have been Citrus Bowl Champions. We know KF and BF can’t just come out and say as much, but we can only hope they will be bold enough to shake up the QB situation, if SP only barely beats out AP and JL…….
If SP is 25% better than either of the other guys and you think he shouldn't start? They will grow into the position? The best one should start!!
 

iowaflash

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What do you mean how long Hawk fans might give a new QB? Do we suddenly have the reigns here and we can choose who is under center? Did I miss that??? Seriously, are you asking how long before each of us turns into whiny little bitches who turn every thread into a QB bash fest....cause that's about the level of our control and clearly plenty of fans have been there for quite some time.

I was not happy with QB play last fall regardless of whether it was SP or AP out there. That tells me one of two things....either both of them are terrible or there were other factors. I can't say definitively which is true, but it doesn't really matter since it's the coaches who are going to decide who's under center this coming fall.
My bad….didn’t mean exactly how that sounded…..certainly didn’t mean we as fans have any choice about who’s under center. You likely believe that my mission is to bash Petras, but it is not. He seems like a good young man and teammate that wants to win. Every new QB1, after a certain reasonable evaluation time (19 games in Petras case), either proves that he’s one that gives us the best chance at winning in the future, or proves that another QB needs to be given equal chances.

As far as being whiny, check my previous posts. You won’t find any from me before the Citrus Bowl about any QB concerns, as well as my entire history on HR about any other QB in Hawk history that wasn’t pretty much a positive post. Now I’m advocating for a QB change, either Labas or Padilla, because they are owed their rightful game opportunities and chances!
 

Hawk_4shur

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Beg to disagree. Battling the flu, Alex would have ended the Nebraska first half within 1 point, had the referee not stolen a true touchdown from LaPorta.
I disagreed with the call too, but even an average throw there and it's not an issue. Alex was 6-14 for 76 yards and was sacked twice and had a QB rating of 19.7. Hard to argue that he shouldn't have been pulled.
 
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sober_teacher

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My bad….didn’t mean exactly how that sounded…..certainly didn’t mean we as fans have any choice about who’s under center. You likely believe that my mission is to bash Petras, but it is not. He seems like a good young man and teammate that wants to win. Every new QB1, after a certain reasonable evaluation time (19 games in Petras case), either proves that he’s one that gives us the best chance at winning in the future, or proves that another QB needs to be given equal chances.

As far as being whiny, check my previous posts. You won’t find any from me before the Citrus Bowl about any QB concerns, as well as my entire history on HR about any other QB in Hawk history that wasn’t pretty much a positive post. Now I’m advocating for a QB change, either Labas or Padilla, because they are owed their rightful game opportunities and chances!

Where I will disagree with you is that either Joey or Alex are “owed” their opportunity. We might think they’re better options than Spencer. They need to earn it. Spencer is still the #1 for now, but I do think Labas closed the gap, and Alex missed some time with injury, so I’m curious how the rest of summer and then fall camp goes.

All internet complaints to the contrary, Kirk and Brian are not in fact idiots, and are well aware that winning in the fashion they did last year with the offensive (lack) of production they got, is not sustainable. Either Petras needs to take a leap or one of the other QBs needs to take the spot away from them, but neither should be handed anything.
 
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Hwk-I-St8

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BF's built this offense around constant threat of running on every down...and he hasn't been willing to sling it around. I'm sure the offensive line struggles last year was a big reason for that...and his QBs haven't been great in pass completion percentage.
Well, in his defense, the jNW game in 2020 probably scared him away from that. He has said he was in "take what the defense give you" mode. jNW was committed (over-committed) to stopping the run, so BF called a bunch of passes, resulting in a bunch of pics, a blown lead and, ultimately, a loss.
 

Hwk-I-St8

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My bad….didn’t mean exactly how that sounded…..certainly didn’t mean we as fans have any choice about who’s under center. You likely believe that my mission is to bash Petras, but it is not. He seems like a good young man and teammate that wants to win. Every new QB1, after a certain reasonable evaluation time (19 games in Petras case), either proves that he’s one that gives us the best chance at winning in the future, or proves that another QB needs to be given equal chances.

As far as being whiny, check my previous posts. You won’t find any from me before the Citrus Bowl about any QB concerns, as well as my entire history on HR about any other QB in Hawk history that wasn’t pretty much a positive post. Now I’m advocating for a QB change, either Labas or Padilla, because they are owed their rightful game opportunities and chances!

Well then, I guess you should forward your analysis on the the coaches.