Shift in Recruiting

percyland

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Now that we are heading toward 2 Super Conferences (SEC and Big Ten) due to TV money and conference realignment do we start to see the upper tier of recruits start to shun the dying conferences like ACC, Big 12, Pac 12 etc and concentrate on the Big 2?

Can Iowa start to poach away some higher recruits that maybe would have chosen an Oklahama State? Louisville? Washington? etc because they want to be in the "bigger conferences?"

The Big Ten and SEC are already NFL factories and I expect that to only increase as better recruits choose these conferences over the smaller ones which will increase demand.
 
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obfuscating

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2 Super conferences and NIL - the end of NCAA football.

Need to seriously have "Semi-pro" (aka Super conferences), D1, D2, etc. With no controls in place this is going to get so out of whack that soon players will be franchise tagged so they can't "leave" without the receiving school having to pay $$$$.
 

pistachio1999

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2 Super conferences and NIL - the end of NCAA football.

Need to seriously have "Semi-pro" (aka Super conferences), D1, D2, etc. With no controls in place this is going to get so out of whack that soon players will be franchise tagged so they can't "leave" without the receiving school having to pay $$$$.
I think they should drop the years of eligibility now also.
 

Nagarunja

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May 1, 2009
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This why I'm shocked there are current Iowa high school players with Iowa offers that are committed to Iowa State. Do they not see the writing on the wall?

This may be the last year where you see players with Big Ten or SEC offers choosing to go somewhere else.
 
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kceasthawk

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Nov 5, 2016
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Now that we are heading toward 2 Super Conferences (SEC and Big Ten) due to TV money and conference realignment do we start to see the upper tier of recruits start to shun the dying conferences like ACC, Big 12, Pac 12 etc and concentrate on the Big 2?

Can Iowa start to poach away some higher recruits that maybe would have chosen an Oklahama State? Louisville? Washington? etc because they want to be in the "bigger conferences?"

The Big Ten and SEC are already NFL factories and I expect that to only increase as better recruits choose these conferences over the smaller ones which will increase demand.
I'm not sure we'll see too much of a change from where we are now, although we've been doing fairly well. The top 4 and 5 star players go to mostly all the top schools, and almost ALL of those teams are in the BIG or SEC. Other then maybe FSU, Miami or clemson what top school who brings in those kids won't be in the two power conferences? Notre Dame is an island unto themselves so that doesn't really matter either....
 
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ellobo

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I'm not sure we'll see too much of a change from where we are now, although we've been doing fairly well. The top 4 and 5 star players go to mostly all the top schools, and almost ALL of those teams are in the BIG or SEC. Other then maybe FSU, Miami or clemson what top school who brings in those kids won't be in the two power conferences? Notre Dame is an island unto themselves so that doesn't really matter either....
I don't think the OP is asking about the top 4 or 5 star recruits but rather the kids who have decent offer lists but not hotly pursued by the tip top recruiters...say your low 4*. As the SEC and B10 continue to separate themselves financially and perceptually I do anticipate more of those kids spurning the other conferences.

Now the interesting thing is the Bamas and tOSUs really can't get much better because (as you pointed out those super elite kids are already heading to those places) but will a shift with the middle tier prospect allow the other schools to close the gap a bit?

Think of it this way...even if it only means that an Iowa is getting 3-4 more of it's "Plan A" guys each year that is anywhere from 12-20 more plan a guys on a roster each year. Now that might not make an Iowa a Bama or tOSU on an annual basis but think about those special years you've had where maybe you wished you had more depth, or just one more gamebreaker, or you had just one position group holding you back...well the theoretical upgrade that would come with those 12-20 kids could be that difference to get a program over the hump even if it's just once in a blue moon.
 

Gonzo Bloor

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Elite recruits want an avenue to the NFL. Iowa is that avenue for a lot of positions, and people know it. But as long as KF and BF implement and offensive philosophy centered on ball control, field position, nothing risky, and leaning on the D and ST to hold for the wins, I don't see any amount of new $$$ getting us elite QB, RB, or WR recruits, maybe less so for RBs. But I know if I were a 5-star WR or QB coming out of HS, Iowa is probably among the last schools I'd consider.
 
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Mountain Man Hawk

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The big change will be when the schools start sharing some of the TV money with the players, but that is still a few years away I expect and hard to know exactly what that will look like. It could almost become a competitive thing between the BigTen and SEC…like if the SEC announces a pool of $20m per school for football players, does the BigTen then try for $25m to one-up them? I have no idea what will happen but I think college football in the 2030s is going to look a lot different than it does now.
 

jonesy5960

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Iowa is already getting really good talent on defense and Phil is building elite defenses with it. Elite wide receivers and QB's aren't coming to Iowa for whatever reason and there is no reason to believe that changes with anything as far as realignment goes.
 
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If they can’t get a legacy like Kasper in the NIL age I don’t expect that to change anytime soon. I know Johnson and Bruce were 4*s but their offer list was considerably different.
 

Hawk_4shur

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This why I'm shocked there are current Iowa high school players with Iowa offers that are committed to Iowa State. Do they not see the writing on the wall?

This may be the last year where you see players with Big Ten or SEC offers choosing to go somewhere else.
It does surprise me too, but that thinking tends to over simplify the decision making process of a teenager. There are SO many factors that can influence a kid picking a school. Maybe it's playing time, or proximity to home, or a friend that goes there or forming an excellent relationship with the recruiter. Who knows?
 

millhawk

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Iowa is already getting really good talent on defense and Phil is building elite defenses with it. Elite wide receivers and QB's aren't coming to Iowa for whatever reason and there is no reason to believe that changes with anything as far as realignment goes.

Alex Mota could be a 4 star with a big year if he has someone that can get him the ball. He will play wr this year.
 

DogBoyRy

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If they can’t get a legacy like Kasper in the NIL age I don’t expect that to change anytime soon. I know Johnson and Bruce were 4*s but their offer list was considerably different.
Our NIL was lagging during his recruitment. Oregon's promises were six figures I was told.
 

percyland

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Apr 16, 2011
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I don't think the OP is asking about the top 4 or 5 star recruits but rather the kids who have decent offer lists but not hotly pursued by the tip top recruiters...say your low 4*. As the SEC and B10 continue to separate themselves financially and perceptually I do anticipate more of those kids spurning the other conferences.

Now the interesting thing is the Bamas and tOSUs really can't get much better because (as you pointed out those super elite kids are already heading to those places) but will a shift with the middle tier prospect allow the other schools to close the gap a bit?

Think of it this way...even if it only means that an Iowa is getting 3-4 more of it's "Plan A" guys each year that is anywhere from 12-20 more plan a guys on a roster each year. Now that might not make an Iowa a Bama or tOSU on an annual basis but think about those special years you've had where maybe you wished you had more depth, or just one more gamebreaker, or you had just one position group holding you back...well the theoretical upgrade that would come with those 12-20 kids could be that difference to get a program over the hump even if it's just once in a blue moon.
This is what I was thinking. OSU and Bama are still going to get the top 4-5 star talent. But can Iowa start to peel away an extra few 4 star players a year that will go to the Big Ten instead of staying in the Big 12 or ACC?
 

SDHawkDoc

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Jan 27, 2013
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I'm thinking less about high schoolers and more the transfer market. That's already a fertile recruiting ground that could get better. How much easier will it be to poach players from the have nots that are the leftovers of the former P5 conferences when they can be offered a better showcase for their NFL aspirations? Plus more NIL money? B1G and SEC teams not getting the best of the best out of high school could potentially do well for themselves.
 

pistachio1999

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Nov 29, 2021
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This is what I was thinking. OSU and Bama are still going to get the top 4-5 star talent. But can Iowa start to peel away an extra few 4 star players a year that will go to the Big Ten instead of staying in the Big 12 or ACC?
Or backups at Bama and OSU start going elsewhere with more frequency now.
 

pistachio1999

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Nov 29, 2021
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The big change will be when the schools start sharing some of the TV money with the players, but that is still a few years away I expect and hard to know exactly what that will look like. It could almost become a competitive thing between the BigTen and SEC…like if the SEC announces a pool of $20m per school for football players, does the BigTen then try for $25m to one-up them? I have no idea what will happen but I think college football in the 2030s is going to look a lot different than it does now.
Can't wait until someone has to divvy that up unequally. Then the real fun starts on the teams.
 

Ree4

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Oct 13, 2009
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It does surprise me too, but that thinking tends to over simplify the decision making process of a teenager. There are SO many factors that can influence a kid picking a school. Maybe it's playing time, or proximity to home, or a friend that goes there or forming an excellent relationship with the recruiter. Who knows?
From my understanding (at least it was 10 years ago when I studied it in school) the biggest reason by far is proximity to home, I think it was in the 75% range for commits as their #1 reason. Explains why SEC has so much talent.