SIAP, interesting pass completion data from Hawkcentral

[uihawk82]

Leistekow wrote this "

A path to elevating Petras' ceiling​

Petras, who emerged from the Manning Passing Academy with increased confidence, is the heavy favorite to start Iowa’s season opener, so let’s focus on the fifth-year senior's potential progression.

At Iowa, Petras has been a 57% passer. Can he up that to 63%? Maybe 65%?

In 2021, he was “kept clean” (according to PFF data) on 67% of his drop-backs. On those throws, he connected on 63.9% of his passes and averaged 7.6 yards per attempt. That’s decent, but could be better. When he was “under pressure,” the completion rate plummeted to 38.5% (well below the FBS average of 47% for 2021) and a woeful 3.6 yards per attempt.""""

That is a 7% increase in completion % when Petras is in 'clean' pocket vs his overall percentage. But another way to look at that is he would or could be about 10% overall more efficient in completion percentage and in the passing game with better pass protection. Brian Ferentz said in that article they are also trying to make the offense easier and quicker for the QBs to know where to go with the ball. So if all that can happen including a better run game, then a super season is a possibility, especially when you might have an outstanding defense.

 

[jonesy5960]

Leistekow wrote this "

A path to elevating Petras' ceiling​

Petras, who emerged from the Manning Passing Academy with increased confidence, is the heavy favorite to start Iowa’s season opener, so let’s focus on the fifth-year senior's potential progression.

At Iowa, Petras has been a 57% passer. Can he up that to 63%? Maybe 65%?

In 2021, he was “kept clean” (according to PFF data) on 67% of his drop-backs. On those throws, he connected on 63.9% of his passes and averaged 7.6 yards per attempt. That’s decent, but could be better. When he was “under pressure,” the completion rate plummeted to 38.5% (well below the FBS average of 47% for 2021) and a woeful 3.6 yards per attempt.""""

That is a 7% increase in completion % when Petras is in 'clean' pocket vs his overall percentage. But another way to look at that is he would or could be about 10% overall more efficient in completion percentage and in the passing game with better pass protection. Brian Ferentz said in that article they are also trying to make the offense easier and quicker for the QBs to know where to go with the ball. So if all that can happen including a better run game, then a super season is a possibility, especially when you might have an outstanding defense.

Do we know what the FBS average is for percentage of "clean pockets" for total dropbacks? Just wondering how the 67% compares to peers. The number itself is surprising to me given that it seemed he was under pressure on more than 33% of his drops.

 

[ShonnDeereGreene]

Do we know what the FBS average is for percentage of "clean pockets" for total dropbacks? Just wondering how the 67% compares to peers. The number itself is surprising to me given that it seemed he was under pressure on more than 33% of his drops.

That’s a great point, jonesy. I suspect 67% needs to be closer to 75% when everything goes well. I think of it like making free throws. Not gonna make them all but need to hit 70-75%.

Completing 2 out of 3 passes on “clean” plays isn’t gonna get it done…unless they are downfield completions which typically isn’t the case. I also believe he was under pressure more (or seemed to be) because defenses could just pin their ears back knowing there was zero threat of elusiveness or extending the play. That’s tough for any OL.

And football - like life - is messy. Gotta be able to make lemonade outta lemons more than 38% of the time. Definitley need the WRs to step up too - but it starts at QB imo.

 

[DodgerHawki]

That’s a great point, jonesy. I suspect 67% needs to be closer to 75% when everything goes well. I think of it like making free throws. Not gonna make them all but need to hit 70-75%.

Completing 2 out of 3 passes on “clean” plays isn’t gonna get it done…unless they are downfield completions which typically isn’t the case. I also believe he was under pressure more (or seemed to be) because defenses could just pin their ears back knowing there was zero threat of elusiveness or extending the play. That’s tough for any OL.

And football - like life - is messy. Gotta be able to make lemonade outta lemons more than 38% of the time. Definitley need the WRs to step up too - but it starts at QB imo.

The 63.9% and 7.6 YPA are not good numbers for a clean pocket. Those would be middling overall numbers for a QB, let alone for when things are ideal. Need to do much better than that when the QB is given time.

 

[sober_teacher]

Did they happen to break that down by first half/second half of the season?

It feels like on balance we saw more of those clean pockets in the first half of the season when we got off to the better start.

 

[Big Hawk D-Port]

Petras has a great arm and excellent height. He has a great attitude and is a good team leader. The problem is he also is a statue that wets the bed.

 

[mvhomerl]

I hate wet beds!

 

[nbanflfactory]

So, like mentioned before, he craps the bed in the face of pressure.
Something we already knew....

Forget his ceiling...raise his floor

 

[nbanflfactory]

Did they happen to break that down by first half/second half of the season?

It feels like on balance we saw more of those clean pockets in the first half of the season when we got off to the better start.

He was pretty bad vs ind and ISU
MD ksu and csu just flat out sucked so that means little

 

[sober_teacher]

He was pretty bad vs ind and ISU
MD ksu and csu just flat out sucked so that means little

I’m aware he was average at best the first 6 games…but the offense was doing well enough to win games and be efficient off of turnovers, short fields to start the year.

im just curious how the analytics mentioned stack up from that 6-0 start even as the offense struggled, vs the last 6 games when the offense basically broke down.

 

[nbanflfactory]

I’m aware he was average at best the first 6 games…but the offense was doing well enough to win games and be efficient off of turnovers, short fields to start the year.

im just curious how the analytics mentioned stack up from that 6-0 start even as the offense struggled, vs the last 6 games when the offense basically broke down.

I'm sure we will have plenty of stupid "I told you so" posts in Sept due to the easy schedule. The real test will start in oct.

I'm sure the offense will look fine and maybe even good the 1st month. If not it could be a long season! It's easy to look to decent vs subpar competition.

 

[sober_teacher]

I'm sure we will have plenty of stupid "I told you so" posts in Sept due to the easy schedule. The real test will start in oct.

I'm sure the offense will look fine and maybe even good the 1st month. If not it could be a long season! It's easy to look to decent vs subpar competition.

You continue to say that both Indiana and ISU were sub par opponents tho. I just completely disagree with that. Indiana in particular got ravaged by injuries, but were a quality opponent the first month of the season.

ISU simply underachieved. We simply played better than them, particularly on defense.

I’m also not sure what you mean by I told you so posts. If Spencer doesn’t start strong in September, I think we see Padilla in October at the very latest. I hope Spencer and the offense starts strong, but I’m by no means predicting that.

 

[nbanflfactory]

You continue to say that both Indiana and ISU were sub par opponents tho. I just completely disagree with that. Indiana in particular got ravaged by injuries, but were a quality opponent the first month of the season.

ISU simply underachieved. We simply played better than them, particularly on defense.

I’m also not sure what you mean by I told you so posts. If Spencer doesn’t start strong in September, I think we see Padilla in October at the very latest. I hope Spencer and the offense starts strong, but I’m by no means predicting that.

ISU was maybe more than mediocre last year, doubt they will be this year. Ind sucked! And we still did little to nothing vs either of them.

We shouldn't struggle vs anyone in Sept...if we do that's a really bad sign

 

[sober_teacher]

ISU was maybe more than mediocre last year, doubt they will be this year. Ind sucked! And we still did little to nothing vs either of them.

We shouldn't struggle vs anyone in Sept...if we do that's a really bad sign

Indiana sucked by the by the end of the year, but the same team that we handled easily also gave CFP-bound Cincinnati all they could handle, and arguably win that game save for a controversial ejection.

ISU returned just about everyone of note off a team that almost won the b12 the previous year, and buckled under the pressure. Their win/loss record was not indicative of their talent.

 

[jonesy5960]

You continue to say that both Indiana and ISU were sub par opponents tho. I just completely disagree with that. Indiana in particular got ravaged by injuries, but were a quality opponent the first month of the season.

ISU simply underachieved. We simply played better than them, particularly on defense.

I’m also not sure what you mean by I told you so posts. If Spencer doesn’t start strong in September, I think we see Padilla in October at the very latest. I hope Spencer and the offense starts strong, but I’m by no means predicting that.

Iowa's defense was the sole reason that Iowa won that game. The offense, as was the case most of the year, was really pretty abysmal. 173 total yards, 11 first downs, a 1.7 yard per carry average on the ground, and 11/21 passing for 107 yards and a QBR of 29.

 

[sober_teacher]

Iowa's defense was the sole reason that Iowa won that game. The offense, as was the case most of the year, was really pretty abysmal. 173 total yards, 11 first downs, a 1.7 yard per carry average on the ground, and 11/21 passing for 107 yards and a QBR of 29.

That was a game tho where stats were meaningless, due to the exemplary play of the defense. The early long TD by Goodson, two pick sixes…meant that against what was a pretty salty defense prior to injuries, Iowa had zero reason to be aggressive in a season-opening game.

 

[jonesy5960]

That was a game tho where stats were meaningless, due to the exemplary play of the defense. The early long TD by Goodson, two pick sixes…meant that against what was a pretty salty defense prior to injuries, Iowa had zero reason to be aggressive in a season-opening game.

Agreed, but this game exemplified pretty much the entire season last year. Rely on an exemplary D and hope the offense can do just enough to carve out a win.

 

[sober_teacher]

Agreed, but this game exemplified pretty much the entire season last year. Rely on an exemplary D and hope the offense can do just enough to carve out a win.

Sure but that’s largely been the offensive philosophy for the last 20 years.

And in hindsight it’s easier to see the warning signs from that game, but it could also be partly explained by the circumstances of the game.

 

[jonesy5960]

Sure but that’s largely been the offensive philosophy for the last 20 years.

And in hindsight it’s easier to see the warning signs from that game, but it could also be partly explained by the circumstances of the game.

Well I had myself convinced that the lack of production during the first several games was a function of playing great defenses and smart low risk offensive football that didn't have to expose an elite defense. It became obvious even to me later on that this was also a function of an offense that couldn't generate production even when it needed to.

 

[nbanflfactory]

Sure but that’s largely been the offensive philosophy for the last 20 years.

And in hindsight it’s easier to see the warning signs from that game, but it could also be partly explained by the circumstances of the game.

This excuse doesn't fly. The offense was flat out trash....

 

[sober_teacher]

This excuse doesn't fly. The offense was flat out trash....

The fact that the offense last year was bad doesn’t change the basic philosophy it was based on.

 

[nbanflfactory]

The fact that the offense last year was bad doesn’t change the basic philosophy it was based on.

Agreed, but we should never have to wonder if the o or d will score more points any given week

 

[uihawk82]

You continue to say that both Indiana and ISU were sub par opponents tho. I just completely disagree with that. Indiana in particular got ravaged by injuries, but were a quality opponent the first month of the season.

ISU simply underachieved. We simply played better than them, particularly on defense.

I’m also not sure what you mean by I told you so posts. If Spencer doesn’t start strong in September, I think we see Padilla in October at the very latest. I hope Spencer and the offense starts strong, but I’m by no means predicting that.

You are correct as Indiana was close to on the way to beating Cincy in Sept last year. One score game late.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Well I had myself convinced that the lack of production during the first several games was a function of playing great defenses and smart low risk offensive football that didn't have to expose an elite defense. It became obvious even to me later on that this was also a function of an offense that couldn't generate production even when it needed to.

This excuse doesn't fly. The offense was flat out trash....

The defenses of Iowa State, Indiana, and Penn State are/were better than you're giving them credit for. Especially in the case of ISU and IU ... before the players "lost hope" about achieving team goals, their defensive play was quite good!

Through ALL of last season, PSU's red-zone D was sick!

Don't get me wrong ... our O was putrid. However, the O at least was somewhat competent scoring on a short field through the first part of the season (with the exception of the PSU game - that was TOUGH). It was in the second half of the season where our scoring O simply fell off the cliff. I haven't read a narrative/synopsis from anyone that supplies a good/compelling causal explanation for the demise of our O in the second half of the season.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

This excuse doesn't fly. The offense was flat out trash....

No doubt it was trash ... but why? The cliche-responses about Petras and the OC don't tell the whole story ... not even close.

 

[sober_teacher]

Well I had myself convinced that the lack of production during the first several games was a function of playing great defenses and smart low risk offensive football that didn't have to expose an elite defense. It became obvious even to me later on that this was also a function of an offense that couldn't generate production even when it needed to.

I think it was a combo of both. certainly there were warning signs the first month of the season that we assumed would improve as the season wore on, especially on the line - which we all expected to improve as they gelled. Maybe the first time in at least a decade where the line in week 12 wasn’t better than it was in week 1.

 

[sober_teacher]

The defenses of Iowa State, Indiana, and Penn State are/were better than you're giving them credit for. Especially in the case of ISU and IU ... before the players "lost hope" about achieving team goals, their defensive play was quite good!

Through ALL of last season, PSU's red-zone D was sick!

Don't get me wrong ... our O was putrid. However, the O at least was somewhat competent scoring on a short field through the first part of the season (with the exception of the PSU game - that was TOUGH). It was in the second half of the season where our scoring O simply fell off the cliff. I haven't read a narrative/synopsis from anyone that supplies a good/compelling causal explanation for the demise of our O in the second half of the season.

I think the easiest explanations was by the time we got past PSU, the scouting reports were fully in, so teams knew how to attack us better. Then we also had games where we were sabotaging ourselves with dropped balls, penalties, etc.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

I think it was a combo of both. certainly there were warning signs the first month of the season that we assumed would improve as the season wore on, especially on the line - which we all expected to improve as they gelled. Maybe the first time in at least a decade where the line in week 12 wasn’t better than it was in week 1.

While fans like to hang their hats on the quality of our D ... and that being a significant reason why we win games. Perhaps one of the understated reasons why the scoring O tanked through the latter half of the season may have been linked to our inability to generate short-fields with the same frequency.

Against Wisconsin ... our special teams were pretty much anything BUT special.

Also, Hankins was clearly dinged through the latter half of the season ... probably explaining part of the reason why he was schooled so bad by David Bell. Moss and Roberts also had injury issues. Not coincidentally, the rate of INTs generated by our D also abruptly changed (for the worse).

Last year, if we didn't have a short-field ... we were pretty screwed on O. At least, against a D with a pulse. It will be interesting to see if the O can field anything resembling competency in '22. I would expect so ... because it's hard to imagine the quality of play being worse.

 

[nbanflfactory]

The defenses of Iowa State, Indiana, and Penn State are/were better than you're giving them credit for. Especially in the case of ISU and IU ... before the players "lost hope" about achieving team goals, their defensive play was quite good!

Through ALL of last season, PSU's red-zone D was sick!

Don't get me wrong ... our O was putrid. However, the O at least was somewhat competent scoring on a short field through the first part of the season (with the exception of the PSU game - that was TOUGH). It was in the second half of the season where our scoring O simply fell off the cliff. I haven't read a narrative/synopsis from anyone that supplies a good/compelling causal explanation for the demise of our O in the second half of the season.

Our o was decent vs PSU but vs ind and ISU it was flat out pathetic. Both teams had a good defense, but def not elite.

Our o was not good, not even in the 1st half of the year. MD showed their defense was straight trash And who cares about csu and ksu? We had a decent (not great, decent) game vs PSU and that's it. We did next to nothing vs ind and isu

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

I think the easiest explanations was by the time we got past PSU, the scouting reports were fully in, so teams knew how to attack us better. Then we also had games where we were sabotaging ourselves with dropped balls, penalties, etc.

I definitely think there is a lot of merit to that take. Particularly as it related to defenses attacking our inexperienced OL.

However, the number of drops by our pass-catchers was rather baffling. I remember another poster quoting that the Hawks led the B1G in drops last year. That's particularly exceptional given how few snaps the Iowa O typically sees compared to other Os.

 

[nbanflfactory]

No doubt it was trash ... but why? The cliche-responses about Petras and the OC don't tell the whole story ... not even close.

We had an inexperienced line and wrs, a clueless OC, an inaccurate QB afraid of his own shadow, and an Rb that seemed to dislike physical football.

As a group, even te wasn't all that great by Iowa standards!

 

[nbanflfactory]

I definitely think there is a lot of merit to that take. Particularly as it related to defenses attacking our inexperienced OL.

However, the number of drops by our pass-catchers was rather baffling. I remember another poster quoting that the Hawks led the B1G in drops last year. That's particularly exceptional given how few snaps the Iowa O typically sees compared to other Os.

You can put some of that blame on Padilla

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Our o was decent vs PSU but vs ind and ISU it was flat out pathetic. Both teams had a good defense, but def not elite.

Our o was not good, not even in the 1st half of the year. MD showed their defense was straight trash And who cares about csu and ksu? We had a decent (not great, decent) game vs PSU and that's it. We did next to nothing vs ind and isu

Typically Iowa's O struggles against tight man coverage. That was something that Maryland was touting as their strength ... at least going into their game against Iowa.

I will NOT argue that Iowa's O was even good through the first half of the season ... but it was at least "good enough." Similarly, I won't argue that Maryland's D was any sort of juggernaut either. However, all the same, I do believe that Iowa's success through the air against Maryland WAS impressive!

Also, I think that you're underselling IU's and ISU's D. Like many fans ... I think that you're looking at the bottom line, rather than the actual play that you observed. Go back and watch their play through their early season games. Cinci had a pretty darn good O ... and IU's D played them awfully tough. ISU's D got caught too often having to clean up after their O. ISU's O would start games too slowly ... getting their D in a hole. Look at ALL of the remaining losses by the Cyclones ... not one game was lost by more than a single score. As much as I like to kick 'em when they're down ... it's disingenuous to suggest that ISU wasn't a decent team. The '21 Cyclones were arguably much like the '10 Hawkeyes. A disappointing team, yes ... a bad or mediocre team, no.

 

[nbanflfactory]

Typically Iowa's O struggles against tight man coverage. That was something that Maryland was touting as their strength ... at least going into their game against Iowa.

I will NOT argue that Iowa's O was even good through the first half of the season ... but it was at least "good enough." Similarly, I won't argue that Maryland's D was any sort of juggernaut either. However, all the same, I do believe that Iowa's success through the air against Maryland WAS impressive!

Also, I think that you're underselling IU's and ISU's D. Like many fans ... I think that you're looking at the bottom line, rather than the actual play that you observed. Go back and watch their play through their early season games. Cinci had a pretty darn good O ... and IU's D played them awfully tough. ISU's D got caught too often having to clean up after their O. ISU's O would start games too slowly ... getting their D in a hole. Look at ALL of the remaining losses by the Cyclones ... not one game was lost by more than a single score. As much as I like to kick 'em when they're down ... it's disingenuous to suggest that ISU wasn't a decent team. The '21 Cyclones were arguably much like the '10 Hawkeyes. A disappointing team, yes ... a bad or mediocre team, no.

We avg like 5ypa in the air and under 2 running vs ISU! They were good, buy we also sucked...

 

[sober_teacher]

While fans like to hang their hats on the quality of our D ... and that being a significant reason why we win games. Perhaps one of the understated reasons why the scoring O tanked through the latter half of the season may have been linked to our inability to generate short-fields with the same frequency.

Against Wisconsin ... our special teams were pretty much anything BUT special.

Also, Hankins was clearly dinged through the latter half of the season ... probably explaining part of the reason why he was schooled so bad by David Bell. Moss and Roberts also had injury issues. Not coincidentally, the rate of INTs generated by our D also abruptly changed (for the worse).

Last year, if we didn't have a short-field ... we were pretty screwed on O. At least, against a D with a pulse. It will be interesting to see if the O can field anything resembling competency in '22. I would expect so ... because it's hard to imagine the quality of play being worse.

If memory serves, we scored points after every turnover the first 5 games of the season, and often did so after punts as well with short fields. Not an excuse, but part of the reason for the ugly yardage stats was simply due to rarely having poor field position the first half of the year. Offensive struggles in particular showed up as the turnovers did.

I definitely think there is a lot of merit to that take. Particularly as it related to defenses attacking our inexperienced OL.

However, the number of drops by our pass-catchers was rather baffling. I remember another poster quoting that the Hawks led the B1G in drops last year. That's particularly exceptional given how few snaps the Iowa O typically sees compared to other Os.

i heard several times on podcasts last year about how statistically unlucky analytics rated Iowa throughout the year. To some extent it’s reasonable to suggest improvement based solely on reversing that luck.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

We had an inexperienced line and wrs, a clueless OC, an inaccurate QB afraid of his own shadow, and an Rb that seemed to dislike physical football.

As a group, even te wasn't all that great by Iowa standards!

An argument could be made that Goodson in '21 was much like Clayborn in '10 ... maybe "protecting himself" for the NFL. Besides, Goodson was still a bit on the undersized side of things ... once a tackler got a hand on him, more often or not he'd be going down.

As for the comment about Brian, if you look at Iowa's scoring O's since '17 and put it in context with our offensive personnel ... that really doesn't paint a picture of an OC that is clueless. Your statement is more than just a little subjective there.

The statements about OL and WRs are "on" ... and, also, a matter of record. The QB comment is "on" ... however, as many folks on this board have FAIRLY discussed ... a lot of this seemed to be an issue that was "between the ears" as it related to Petras. And this arose for three-fold reasons ... ONE: Petras (and even Padilla) didn't know if he could trust his protection ... TWO: Petras (and even Padilla) couldn't trust if his pass-catchers could be in the right spots and/or CATCH THE FREAKING BALL ... and THREE: Iowa's very approach to coaching QBs may have put too much cognitive load on the QB ... thereby leading to too much latency in the QB "thinking process."

Notice the messages that have been coming out about the O for the coming season ... a big emphasis is being placed on allowing the QB to make decisions more simply and faster. If the cognitive load is diminished ... then better production is attainable.

With a running game that can help us to stay ahead of the chains and better sell our play-action game ... then that further helps out a QB (whomever wins the job).

You're right about the TE-play too. LaPorta definitely gets targeted plenty ... but his play could still be more consistent. Furthermore, Miamen and Yelverton are both gone. Lastly, Lachey was a newbie last year. If we see improvements made by BOTH LaPorta and Lachey ... AND if Stilianos can give us some quality snaps ... our TE situation could potentially be better (hopefully reaching the Iowa standard).

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

We avg like 5ypa in the air and under 2 running vs ISU! They were good, buy we also sucked...

Absolutely! However, given our early and substantial lead ... the O also went into "turtle-mode" pretty darn early.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

If memory serves, we scored points after every turnover the first 5 games of the season, and often did so after punts as well with short fields. Not an excuse, but part of the reason for the ugly yardage stats was simply due to rarely having poor field position the first half of the year. Offensive struggles in particular showed up as the turnovers did.

Yes ... it's fascinating how we can manage to burn 4 minutes on something like a 30 yard drive (or thereabouts). So yes ... part of what can skew analytics for the Hawks last season (through the first part of the season) was that we'd still manage to bleed the clock, ALL while still enjoying short fields. Thus, we score (and ultimately win) ... without having to churn up much yardage.

As I recall, our offensive points per yard were really good through the first 5 games.

 

[doughuddl2]

Yes ... it's fascinating how we can manage to burn 4 minutes on something like a 30 yard drive (or thereabouts). So yes ... part of what can skew analytics for the Hawks last season (through the first part of the season) was that we'd still manage to bleed the clock, ALL while still enjoying short fields. Thus, we score (and ultimately win) ... without having to churn up much yardage.

As I recall, our offensive points per yard were really good through the first 5 games.

Except at the end of games with a one possession lead. Then it's 12 seconds and 3 yards.