Significance of Northwestern's win

[icantfindausernamethatisntused]

After Iowa lost to Wisconsin, most thought Iowa had virtually no chance of winning the Big 10 West, and that we'd have to win out in order to give ourselves any chance.

However, Northwestern now sits at 3-1 in the Big 10, and with a game against Rutgers next week we might as well assume they'll be 4-1 when they host Wisconsin in two weeks. If Northwestern can manage to beat Wisconsin (ESPN FPI currently gives them a 34% chance), that potentially affords some margin for error in the following scenario:

• Northwestern:
  • Wins: @Rutgers, Wisconsin, @Minnesota, Illinois
  • Losses: @Iowa
• Wisconsin:
  • Losses: @Northwestern, and at least one other game (e.g., @Michigan, @PSU, @Purdue, Minnesota)

Then, Iowa could lose one more game, and still win the West because there'd be a three way tie with Iowa, Northwestern, and Wisconsin all having a 7-2 conference record. While it's not clear right now how the remaining tie breakers would play out, it's possible it could come down to best overall record, and Iowa would have the best overall record.

 

[BioHawk]

I like that scenario, although I think Iowa stands a real good shot at beating PSU.

 

[SHAWKER]

If Iowa is going to the BIG Champ game it better be with 1 loss....just my opinion

 

[HawkBlocked]

Northwestern is a dangerous team every year. They might beat Iowa and Wisconsin, and head to Indy.

 

[hawkcub]

Overall record is the last criteria in the tiebreakers just before a random draw.

 

[BCRoss89]

One at a time, lets focus on beating the turtles. Go Hawks.

 

[BlackNGoldBleeder]

I get why Hawkeye fans are spooked by Northwestern but the likelihood of them beating Wisconsin is next to none.

Northwestern eked out a win against a hapless Nebraska team who has become the Bad News Bears of the B1G West.

 

[Slappy Pappy]

I could easily see a 7-2, or even a 6-3 team winning a division. It's happened with the conference title before.

 

[ChiHawk1985]

I could see Nebraska going winless all season and getting their one and only win against Iowa. And it would send many of this messageboard’s Iowa fans off a cliff

 

[wilson reborn]

I could easily see a 7-2, or even a 6-3 team winning a division. It's happened with the conference title before.

You’re thinking small. We can do better.

 

[BioHawk]

Northwestern is a dangerous team every year. They might beat Iowa and Wisconsin, and head to Indy.

Can't rule that out either.

 

[Ripcord280]

Northwestern is a dangerous team every year. They might beat Iowa and Wisconsin, and head to Indy.

very true. you can never count these guys out,no matter how bad they seemto look in September.

the only good thing (for us anyway) is that they seem to have no run game

 

[BAE94]

Let’s just focus on the Terps. They are probably more athletic than any other West Division team we play going forward.

 

[El Simbolo]

I think first tiebreaker after head to head is record within division. So PSU is the only game we could possibly afford to lose. What I don’t know is if for three way they go with best division and then OOC record, or the eliminate worst and revert to head t head?

 

[Kinnick.At.Night]

Fitz is my favorite coach in the conference after the Captain. He’s a winner through and through and so are his players.

 

[icantfindausernamethatisntused]

I think first tiebreaker after head to head is record within division. So PSU is the only game we could possibly afford to lose. What I don’t know is if for three way they go with best division and then OOC record, or the eliminate worst and revert to head t head?

I believe you're right about the tie breaker, but that also means we could lose to Maryland if we follow that up with a win at Penn State.

 

[StormHawk42]

I could see Nebraska going winless all season and getting their one and only win against Iowa. And it would send many of this messageboard’s Iowa fans off a cliff

Ive said the same thing. That would be the most Iowa thing ever.

 

[hawkcub]

Short of Wisconsin losing to Northwestern Plus another Big Ten West team we need them to have one more then we do. Here are the tiebreaker rules.


(b) If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 8 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step (or sub-step), the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative. If three or more teams remain tied after any step, move to next step in tiebreaker with remaining tied teams.

1. The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other.
2. The records of the three tied teams will be compared within their division.

3. The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, 6, and 7).
(a) When arriving at a group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record against the collective tied teams as a group, rather than record against the individual teams.

4. The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents.
5. The best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents.
(a) Example: East 1 non-divisional opponents are 20-7, East 2 non-divisional opponents are 19-8, East 3 non-divisional opponents are 14-13 - East 1 would be the representative.

6. The records of the three teams will be compared against the highest placed non-divisional teams in their division order of finish (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7).

(a) When arriving at a group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record against the collective tied teams as a group, rather than record against the individual teams.
(b) When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the record will prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e. 1-0 is better than 0-0, 2-0 is better than 1-0, etc.)
7. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative.
8. The representative will be chosen by random draw.

 

[icantfindausernamethatisntused]

Short of Wisconsin losing to Northwestern Plus another Big Ten West team we need them to have one more then we do. Here are the tiebreaker rules.


(b) If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 8 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step (or sub-step), the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative. If three or more teams remain tied after any step, move to next step in tiebreaker with remaining tied teams.

1. The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other.
2. The records of the three tied teams will be compared within their division.

3. The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, 6, and 7).
(a) When arriving at a group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record against the collective tied teams as a group, rather than record against the individual teams.

4. The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents.
5. The best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents.
(a) Example: East 1 non-divisional opponents are 20-7, East 2 non-divisional opponents are 19-8, East 3 non-divisional opponents are 14-13 - East 1 would be the representative.

6. The records of the three teams will be compared against the highest placed non-divisional teams in their division order of finish (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7).

(a) When arriving at a group of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record against the collective tied teams as a group, rather than record against the individual teams.
(b) When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the record will prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e. 1-0 is better than 0-0, 2-0 is better than 1-0, etc.)
7. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative.
8. The representative will be chosen by random draw.

To follow this through, if we assume the Iowa, Wisconsin, and Northwestern each finish 7-2 with the following losses:

• Iowa's losses: Wisconsin, PSU
• Northwestern's losses: Michigan, Iowa
• Wisconsin's losses: Michigan, Northwestern

Then the following analysis would apply:

• Tiebreaker #1 does not determine winner (each team is 1-1 against this 3 team group)
• Tiebreaker #2 does not determine winner (Iowa, Northwestern, and Wisconsin would all be 5-1 in the West division)
• Tiebreaker #3 does not determine winner (Iowa, Northwestern, and Wisconsin would all be 4-0 against the rest of the West division)
• Tiebreaker #4 does not determine winner (Iowa and Northwestern do not have any overlap in crossover games, so the only common conference opponents shared by all 3 tied teams are Big 10 West opponents.)
• Tiebreaker #5 likely determines winner (i.e., cumulative conference winning percentage of crossover opponents):
  • Iowa's crossover opponents: Maryland, Penn State, Indiana
  • Wisconsin's crossover opponents: Michigan, Penn State, Rutgers
  • Northwestern's crossover opponents: Michigan, Michigan State, Rutgers
    • As of now, I'd give a slight advantage to Northwestern due to MSU beating PSU, but there are a number of key games that could shift the balance (e.g., if Maryland beats MSU, PSU beats Michigan, those would be good outcomes for Iowa)

 

[El Simbolo]

Tie breaker #2 would eliminate NU, and it would revert to 2 team tiebreaker which Wisc wins

Actually #2 wouldn’t knock out NU because they’d actually also be 5-1 in decision, not 4-2

 

[hwk23]

To follow this through, if we assume the Iowa, Wisconsin, and Northwestern each finish 7-2 with the following losses:

• Iowa's losses: Wisconsin, PSU
• Northwestern's losses: Michigan, Iowa
• Wisconsin's losses: Michigan, Northwestern

Then the following analysis would apply:

• Tiebreaker #1 does not determine winner (each team is 1-1 against this 3 team group)
• Tiebreaker #2 does not determine winner (Iowa, Northwestern, and Wisconsin would all be 5-1 in the West division, while Northwestern would be 4-2)
• Tiebreaker #3 does not determine winner (Iowa, Northwestern, and Wisconsin would all be 4-0 against the rest of the West division)
• Tiebreaker #4 does not determine winner (Iowa and Northwestern do not have any overlap in crossover games, so the only common conference opponents shared by all 3 tied teams are Big 10 West opponents.)
• Tiebreaker #5 likely determines winner (i.e., cumulative conference winning percentage of crossover opponents):
  • Iowa's crossover opponents: Maryland, Penn State, Indiana
  • Wisconsin's crossover opponents: Michigan, Penn State, Rutgers
  • Northwestern's crossover opponents: Michigan, Michigan State, Rutgers
    • As of now, I'd give a slight advantage to Northwestern due to MSU beating PSU, but there are a number of key games that could shift the balance (e.g., if Maryland beats MSU, PSU beats Michigan, those would be good outcomes for Iowa)

For #5, they both play Rutgers so we have that going for us. That didn’t help PSU lost to MSU. We need Indiana and Maryland to step up and Michigan and MSU to lose some games.

It looks like our best bet is for Wiscy to lose to NW (or maybe Purdue) and PSU. We lose one more and beat NW. If we tie NW we win the 2 team heads up tiebreaker.

 

[travishawkeye]

Wisconsin will lose to Penn St and Purdue.

 

[DodgerHawki]

After Iowa lost to Wisconsin, most thought Iowa had virtually no chance of winning the Big 10 West, and that we'd have to win out in order to give ourselves any chance.

However, Northwestern now sits at 3-1 in the Big 10, and with a game against Rutgers next week we might as well assume they'll be 4-1 when they host Wisconsin in two weeks. If Northwestern can manage to beat Wisconsin (ESPN FPI currently gives them a 34% chance), that potentially affords some margin for error in the following scenario:

• Northwestern:
  • Wins: @Rutgers, Wisconsin, @Minnesota, Illinois
  • Losses: @Iowa
• Wisconsin:
  • Losses: @Northwestern, and at least one other game (e.g., @Michigan, @PSU, @Purdue, Minnesota)

Then, Iowa could lose one more game, and still win the West because there'd be a three way tie with Iowa, Northwestern, and Wisconsin all having a 7-2 conference record. While it's not clear right now how the remaining tie breakers would play out, it's possible it could come down to best overall record, and Iowa would have the best overall record.

If Northwestern wins out except for at Iowa, and Wisconsin loses at Northwestern and at Penn State, and Iowa loses just at Penn State, Iowa and Northwestern would both be 7-2, in which case Iowa would win the West. Winning at Purdue will not be easy, that team has found itself a bit after being bad early.

 

[Gladeskat]

I get why Hawkeye fans are spooked by Northwestern but the likelihood of them beating Wisconsin is next to none.

Northwestern eked out a win against a hapless Nebraska team who has become the Bad News Bears of the B1G West.

I'll bet you said that in 2014 as well. How about 2015 when our QG was a freshman?

 

[StormHawk42]

 

[BioHawk]

So basically, Iowa just needs to not lose any more games and then there aren't any issues if Wisconsin loses again.

 

[myteamcanbeatupyourteam]

One at a time, lets focus on beating the turtles. Go Hawks.

 

[hawkfeever]

I get why Hawkeye fans are spooked by Northwestern but the likelihood of them beating Wisconsin is next to none.

Northwestern eked out a win against a hapless Nebraska team who has become the Bad News Bears of the B1G West.

They beat Darth Vader inside his Death Star.

 

[steventrelain]

I could see Nebraska going winless all season and getting their one and only win against Iowa. And it would send many of this messageboard’s Iowa fans off a cliff

^^^ For you parents wondering if thorazine has side effects on children

 

[HemiHawk]

I get why Hawkeye fans are spooked by Northwestern but the likelihood of them beating Wisconsin is next to none.

Northwestern eked out a win against a hapless Nebraska team who has become the Bad News Bears of the B1G West.

Not sure which team baffles me more this year, Mich St or NW.

 

[funnyfletcher]

Win the whole f-ing thing.

 

[ZJSARENOTFREE]

I feel like Wisconsin is going to lose at least 2 more, and they won't be even in the conversation. Purdue, Penn State, and Northwestern could all beat them. Iowa has that same stretch in a different order that is going to determine their season. I like Iowa a hell of a lot more to win vs. Wisconsin. Iowa is more sound on D, and their O seems to be coming around.

 

[Keeker16]

I thought of this as well right after the Wisky game. There always seems to be a team that surprises and if so it could change things. I guess I have a hard time believing Iowa wins out as much as my Black and Gold glasses want them to. We seem to make too many critical errors that will probably bite us against at least one of the opponents. Even against Indiana Stanley had a WTF interception. Good thing is if the offense can keep it going, we might be able to overcome some of those errors.