I'd say that it goes without saying that Northwestern is going to be the toughest remaining foe on Iowa's schedule. That fact is essentially self-evident. That's not to say that other teams aren't capable of exploiting particular match-ups against Iowa and potentially beating the Hawks. However, Northwestern has both the best current resume AND they're playing the best TEAM ball (of Iowa's remaining foes).
However, sadly the writer of the opinion piece was rather limited in how they've annotated the data. Raw numbers, in themselves, says nothing about context ... nor does it do anything to facilitate understanding.
It is definitely fair to say that BOTH Iowa and Northwestern are more run-oriented teams. Iowa is so oriented simply because it is the Hawk's preferred identity. Iowa wants to be tough and physical ... and a running game is all about being tough and physical. Northwestern is so oriented BOTH because Fitzy wants Northwestern to be tough and physical (and they ARE this year) AND because that is how they are built personnel-wise this year.
So what would be the toughest match-up for a run-first team? Obviously a strong run D, right? That only makes sense!
However, look at the top "resume" teams played by Northwestern:
Duke: #30 run D (as measured by yards per game)
Stanford: #35 run D
Minnesota: #66 run D
Here are the top "resume" teams played by Iowa:
Pittsburgh: #4 run D
Wisconsin: #14 run D
Iowa State: #58 run D
The ability of a team like Iowa or Northwestern to run the ball is crucial as it relates to possessing the ball. Furthermore, it helps to keep the defense rested AND it complements the scoring D. The more you possess the ball, the fewer opportunities your opponent will have to score.
While Northwestern's scoring D stats through 5 games are exceptionally impressive. Iowa's are nothing to sneeze at either. Furthermore, as Iowa fans well know, around 24 points scored on the Hawk D are directly attributable to turnovers (including the punt-block) that put the D in very tough positions. I'm not just talking about turnovers that gave the opposing O a short field - we all know that those turnovers gave the opposition the ball deep within the red-zone! An additional 14 points were scored by Illinois State against Iowa's 2nd and 3rd teamers. Obviously the aforementioned points skew the stats of Iowa's scoring D. Without them, the Hawks would have just given up 39 points on the season. Not as far from the mark of Northwestern's scoring D as the article's author would try to lead us to believe.
While I don't expect Iowa to beat Northwestern - I think that they're very capable of doing so. Just considering match-ups, both Iowa and Northwestern are tough match-ups for each other. However, I'm still under the impression that CJ Beathard has that extra X-factor that could potentially give the Hawks the edge in that game.
