Oh STFU already....
Fran's first season was the '10-'11 season.
The OP is absolutely right -- Michigan wasn't sh*t when Fran took over.
Beilein took over that program in the '07-'08 season. He didn't make the tourney his first season. In the '08-'09 season, Michigan made the tourney for the first time since 1995 (the first time in FOURTEEN YEARS). ('96 and '98 appearances were vacated as part of the penalty for one of the most infamous pay-for-play scandals in the history of college basketball).
The following season ('09-'10), Michigan missed the tourney again. So when Fran took over at Iowa the next season '10-'11, Michigan appeared in its SECOND NCAA tournament in SIXTEEN YEARS. That, indeed, is the very definition of a sh*t basketball program.
So again, the OP was exactly correct.
Your spergy reply about what Michigan eventually accomplished under Beilein does not refute the OP, but in fact, PERFECTLY MAKES the OP's point for him. Michigan turned things around only because they hired the right person for the job.
All I ever hear on this board is "we can't do that. we're not X school (who has all kinds of advantages compared to lil ol' ioway)..."
It's always, yes ALWAYS, defeatist nonsense.
Here is the hard, bottom line, irrefutable truth: If Wisconsin can do it, any school can do it (including Northwestern). Everything else is just an excuse for lack of institutional will.
Period.
Which coaches are guaranteed to elevate the program. Let's not be children and pretend there is no risk to dumping a winning coach, at Iowa not Michigan.
Do you want Lickliter back? He was NCoY when we hired him, coming off his second Sweet 16 from a one bid league. Do you want Alford back? Think our 3 NCAA appearances in 8 seasons is better than what we have now? Let's not forget Alford inherited a Sweet 16 team that had 13 NCAA win in the previous 13 seasons, not a program that was the burned our remnants of a dumpster fire as did McC.
So, coming off effectively 3 consecutive NCAA tournaments (we were well off the bubble in 2019) and four second rounds in the past 8 seasons you think now is the time for the "institutional will" to fire the winning coach doing that and take a flyer on someone that might be better.
I could see taking a flyer if we had a Lickliter or Alford situation before us, but we don't. We are winning, not as much as I would like, but winning, qualifying and winning games in the NCAA. There's about 350 programs not doing that and I don't care to join them.
Indeed look what happened to Michigan, a permanent blue blood once they got on the coaching carousel. That's a program that always has been and always will be a couple of rungs above Iowa in the sporting world, if for no other reason (and there are many) the conference in which we play wants it that way.
I can see schools that haven't had the Dr. Davis followed by disaster experience to inform their fans of the massive risk involved in changing coaches, not because they're losing or not making the NCAAs and winning games in the NCAA but because we are not winning enough games in the NCAA wanting to take the risk; but not Iowa. Even a dog doesn't put its paw in the same fire twice.
So who provides the assurance of a better program, given Iowa's limitations in recruiting and winning the facilities war, 'cuz we don't have the money that Wisconsin, Purdue, the Michigans, Penn St, Indiana or Illinois have. We don't have the population to produce a lot of D1 guys in Iowa and kids have much less in state loyalty. Of course we make the change now we lose both McC kids and possibly others, because that's what almost always happens during a 21st Century coaching change. So factor all that into your dream world and let the group know whose going to make Iowa better than we are now without the risk of a massive downside.