So who's really in the drivers seat to win the West?

[El Simbolo]

I plugged ESPN Analytics Matchup Predictor percentages into each potential outcome of the 8 games that will impact the West race. Here are each team’s chances: Purdue 50.5%, Iowa 26.6%, Illinois 12.4%, Minnesota 10.2%, Wisconsin 0.3%.

Ours are low because ESPN says we only have 32% chance of beating Minnesota. However, if we win out, we have the best odds (since Illini are given slim chance of beating Michigan).

Here are each team's chances, assuming they "take care of business" and win out:
Iowa with 2 more wins: 92.5%
Purdue winning out only increases their odds to 73.5%
Illinois winning out (incl @ Mich) still only gives them 52% chance (because they'd still need with Iowa or Purdue to lose)
2 wins for MN = 32%.
2 for Wisc still 0.7% chance of winning the tiebreaker (so they're a long, long shot)

So is Purdue or Iowa in the driver's seat?

The image in the tweet I replied to, shows all the possible outcomes

 

[GhostAppendage]

Win and we in boys let’s gooooooooo

 

[Underscore2]

1. Illinois needs to lose 1 of the next 2.
2. We need to win out.
That is what is needed for Iowa to win the West.

Any other scenarios or overly wordy discussions are irrelevant and can easily be extrapolated from the above.

 

[ichawk24]

Iowa is in the driver's seat but its a pointless discussion to fill in the days between Saturdays.

 

[MeetTheFerentzes]

Strange thing is that NO TEAM in the B1G West controls their own destiny at this very moment.

I guess if you have to pick a team that is in the driver's seat, it would be Purdue, since they would go to BTCG if the season goes chalk from here on out.

You would have to say Iowa is second in that regard, because they would only need one small upset to happen, which they are in total control of.

Would probably put Minnesota next, as they would need to win out (which would include an upset at Wisky and pulling off what should be a close game vs Iowa), but still need Purdue to blow one.

Illinois would probably be next, as they would need to pull off one of the biggest upsets this season, but still need help with Purdue suffering a major upset.

 

[Hwk-I-St8]

Nobody controls their own destiny in the west....the driver's seat is empty right now. We have 4 teams fighting in the aisle trying to get that seat.

 

[markfromj]

Nobody controls their own destiny in the west....the driver's seat is empty right now.

Until 2010, when we also had this, I did not think this condition was even possible.

 

[BBHawk]

I plugged ESPN Analytics Matchup Predictor percentages into each potential outcome of the 8 games that will impact the West race. Here are each team’s chances: Purdue 50.5%, Iowa 26.6%, Illinois 12.4%, Minnesota 10.2%, Wisconsin 0.3%.

Ours are low because ESPN says we only have 32% chance of beating Minnesota. However, if we win out, we have the best odds (since Illini are given slim chance of beating Michigan).

Here are each team's chances, assuming they "take care of business" and win out:
Iowa with 2 more wins: 92.5%
Purdue winning out only increases their odds to 73.5%
Illinois winning out (incl @ Mich) still only gives them 52% chance (because they'd still need with Iowa or Purdue to lose)
2 wins for MN = 32%.
2 for Wisc still 0.7% chance of winning the tiebreaker (so they're a long, long shot)

So is Purdue or Iowa in the driver's seat?

The image in the tweet I replied to, shows all the possible outcomes

View embedded media

Aren't statistics fun?

 

[jo2knight]

Not sure why you guys keep thinking Iowa is in the drivers seat. Illinois is in the drivers seat, then it's us. Everyone is assuming that Illinois will lose to Michigan, nothing is given. Mad disrespect is being given to Illini. Just sayin. If we take care of business and so does UM, then we are in. GO HAWKS!

 

[MeetTheFerentzes]

Not sure why you guys keep thinking Iowa is in the drivers seat. Illinois is in the drivers seat, then it's us. Everyone is assuming that Illinois will lose to Michigan, nothing is given. Mad disrespect is being given to Illini. Just sayin. If we take care of business and so does UM, then we are in. GO HAWKS!

I don't think assuming Illinois won't pull off the biggest upset in college football this season on Saturday is disrespecting them; it's reality. We are coming up with scenarios, and the scenarios that involve Illinois aren't good, even if they pull off the huge upset. Purdue and Iowa are BY FAR the most likely teams to end up in Indy.

 

[jo2knight]

Drivers seat order. If anyone loses game they go to bottom of the list or drop out.
1. Illinois
2. Iowa
3. Purdue
4. Minnesota
*Wisconsin in contention for west title, but need everyone else to lose games

 

[uihawk82]

Not sure why you guys keep thinking Iowa is in the drivers seat. Illinois is in the drivers seat, then it's us. Everyone is assuming that Illinois will lose to Michigan, nothing is given. Mad disrespect is being given to Illini. Just sayin. If we take care of business and so does UM, then we are in. GO HAWKS!

This is the correct answer at this point in time. That is why in sports standings like MLB standings it is most important to look at the loss column. Once you lose a game you cannot get it back but you can keep winning remaining games,

But if you have games left to play and you are especially in the position of having to keep winning then any team ahead of you in the loss column or head to head tiebreakers is in the drivers seat.

Illinois has the tie breaker against Iowa. I think Illinois loses to Mich and if Iowa beats Minny then they are in the cat bird drivers seat heading into the last weekend (as they have the tie breaker against Purdue and Wisky).

 

[El Simbolo]

Not sure why you guys keep thinking Iowa is in the drivers seat. Illinois is in the drivers seat, then it's us. Everyone is assuming that Illinois will lose to Michigan, nothing is given. Mad disrespect is being given to Illini. Just sayin. If we take care of business and so does UM, then we are in. GO HAWKS!

Even if Illinois beats Michigan and Northwestern, they still need Purdue to get upset by either Northwestern or Indiana (or they need Iowa to make it a 3-way tie with Purdue, which Illinois would win)

 

[El Simbolo]

This is the correct answer at this point in time. That is why in sports standings like MLB standings it is most important to look at the loss column. Once you lose a game you cannot get it back but you can keep winning remaining games,

But if you have games left to play and you are especially in the position of having to keep winning then any team ahead of you in the loss column or head to head tiebreakers is in the drivers seat.

Illinois has the tie breaker against Iowa. I think Illinois loses to Mich and if Iowa beats Minny then they are in the cat bird drivers seat heading into the last weekend (as they have the tie breaker against Purdue and Wisky).

Yep, if they aren't 6-3 by themselves, Illini need a multi-team tie instead of tie with just Purdue.

 

[SI_NYC]

Not sure why you guys keep thinking Iowa is in the drivers seat. Illinois is in the drivers seat, then it's us. Everyone is assuming that Illinois will lose to Michigan, nothing is given. Mad disrespect is being given to Illini. Just sayin. If we take care of business and so does UM, then we are in. GO HAWKS!

Everyone thinks Iowa is in the drivers seat because Illinois has very little chance of beating Michigan.

 

[Ronman]

Oh, boy! I'm just salivating at the thought of facing Ohio St. again in the BT Championship game, especially when they are playing to improve their seeding in the National Championship game.

 

[unclesammy]

Oh, boy! I'm just salivating at the thought of facing Ohio St. again in the BT Championship game, especially when they are playing to improve their seeding in the National Championship game.

The bigger they are the harder they fall.... or more often they score.

 

[pistachio1999]

Oh, boy! I'm just salivating at the thought of facing Ohio St. again in the BT Championship game, especially when they are playing to improve their seeding in the National Championship game.

Just cut down on the turnovers. That would help immensely.

 

[Birky]

Drivers seat order. If anyone loses game they go to bottom of the list or drop out.
1. Illinois
2. Iowa
3. Purdue
4. Minnesota
*Wisconsin in contention for west title, but need everyone else to lose games

You seem to be under the impression that Illinois just has to win out. That is not the case. Illinois lost their head to head with Purdue. They, like every other team in the 4 way tie, needs help win the West.

Iowa is probably the team most in control of their own destiny considering the team they need to lose, is the most likely to lose.

If Illinois loses at Michigan on Saturday, and there is probably a 90% chance that will happen, Iowa will be be the only team in control of their own destiny. Currently, a team in the West that controls their own destiny does not exist.

So, to review. Iowa is the team most likely to control their own destiny, but since they have a toughish game left, they aren’t the most likely team to win the West. According to the odds makers.

I do feel like Iowa has a much better chance to win at Minnesota than the odds makers do, so I would give Iowa an edge over Purdue to win the West, but I’m biased. Of course, Iowa would then need to beat Nebraska…

 

[jo2knight]

Everyone thinks Iowa is in the drivers seat because Illinois has very little chance of beating Michigan.

Even if Illinois beats Michigan and Northwestern, they still need Purdue to get upset by either Northwestern or Indiana (or they need Iowa to make it a 3-way tie with Purdue, which Illinois would win)

Got it, sounds like I might have missed the Purdue/Illinois tiebreaker.

 

[Franisdaman]

As has been discussed many times in several threads, as long as (1) Iowa wins its next 2 games and (2) Illinois loses one of its next 2 games (at Michigan, at N'western), Iowa wins the B1G West and there will only be a possible Iowa/Purdue tie breaker (which Iowa would win).

Purdue's next 2 games: vs Northwestern, at Indiana. Both are likely Purdue victories.

11 am games Saturday:
Purdue is a 19.5 point favorite over N'western
Michigan is an 18 pt favorite over Illinois


Purdue won at Minnesota so Purdue has the tie breaker over Minnesota, if necessary.

Bottom line is this: the B1G West champion is going to be either a 6-3 Iowa or a 6-3 Purdue and here's why:

Current Standings:
4-3 Illinois
4-3 Iowa
4-3 Purdue
4-3 Minnesota
3-4 Wisconsin
2-5 Nebraska
1-6 Northwestern

Standings if Iowa wins next 2 games and Illini lose at least 1 of 2:

6-3 Iowa (Iowa has head to head tie breaker over Purdue)
3 losses (at least) Purdue

4 losses (at least) Illinois
4 losses (at least) Minnesota
4 losses (at least) Wisconsin

6 losses (at least) Nebraska
6 losses (at least) Northwestern

 

[kceasthawk]

Strange thing is that NO TEAM in the B1G West controls their own destiny at this very moment.

I guess if you have to pick a team that is in the driver's seat, it would be Purdue, since they would go to BTCG if the season goes chalk from here on out.

You would have to say Iowa is second in that regard, because they would only need one small upset to happen, which they are in total control of.

Would probably put Minnesota next, as they would need to win out (which would include an upset at Wisky and pulling off what should be a close game vs Iowa), but still need Purdue to blow one.

Illinois would probably be next, as they would need to pull off one of the biggest upsets this season, but still need help with Purdue suffering a major upset.

So you think Minny should be favored over Iowa, but would need an upset to beat Wisconsin? I don't care what the odds say. We've already seen all these teams play, and I don't give Minny ANY home field advantage over Iowa. I don't believe Iowa winning Saturday would be an upset, nor Minny winning in camp Randall....

 

[MeetTheFerentzes]

Drivers seat order. If anyone loses game they go to bottom of the list or drop out.
1. Illinois
2. Iowa
3. Purdue
4. Minnesota
*Wisconsin in contention for west title, but need everyone else to lose games

It's all subjective I suppose.

I put Purdue in the driver's seat because all they have to do is win their games, which they will be heavily favored in, and hope that there are no upsets among the other contenders.

I would also consider Iowa to be more in control than Illinois, since they just need to win their games, including one small upset, and hope that Illinois doesn't pull off a gigantic upset.

Compare that to Illinois, who even if they pull off the miracle, would still require either Purdue to suffer a major upset or for Iowa to also win out, including a small upset.

Bottom line is that since no team controls their own destiny, it's a bit difficult to assign a "driver's seat."

 

[MeetTheFerentzes]

So you think Minny should be favored over Iowa, but would need an upset to beat Wisconsin? I don't care what the odds say. We've already seen all these teams play, and I don't give Minny ANY home field advantage over Iowa. I don't believe Iowa winning Saturday would be an upset, nor Minny winning in camp Randall....

I'm saying Minny IS favored over Iowa according to Vegas, and will be underdogs at Wisky according to Vegas, nothing more.

 

[DodgerHawki]

Not sure why you guys keep thinking Iowa is in the drivers seat. Illinois is in the drivers seat, then it's us. Everyone is assuming that Illinois will lose to Michigan, nothing is given. Mad disrespect is being given to Illini. Just sayin. If we take care of business and so does UM, then we are in. GO HAWKS!

Illinois is no longer in the driver's seat, even if they win. They shat the bed against MSU and Purdue, at home, in consecutive weeks.

If Illinois wins twice, Iowa loses to Minnesota, Purdue wins twice, then Purdue goes. Purdue owns the tiebreaker over the Illini. All Illinois had to do was win 1 of the two home games they just had, or not lose to Indiana earlier in the season. But they didn't.

The reason that Purdue is percentage-wise the leader is they play 2 bad teams to end the year, plus Iowa is an underdog at Minnesota and Illinois is a huge underdog at Michigan. The outcomes for Boilers to win is the highest probability of happening.

Iowa's path is the most straightforward as hard as it is to believe. Just beat Minny and Nebraska, and have Michigan win (who is a huge favorite). That's it.

 

[jo2knight]

I'm saying Minny IS favored over Iowa according to Vegas, and will be underdogs at Wisky according to Vegas, nothing more.

Iowa is going to shutdown Minny's run game. They are a 1 dimensional team right now with out Morgan.

 

[herkhatescy]

Drivers seat order. If anyone loses game they go to bottom of the list or drop out.
1. Illinois
2. Iowa
3. Purdue
4. Minnesota
*Wisconsin in contention for west title, but need everyone else to lose games

Illinois is not in the drivers seat.

 

[El Simbolo]

As has been discussed many times in several threads, as long as (1) Iowa wins its next 2 games and (2) Illinois loses one of its next 2 games (at Michigan, at N'western), Iowa wins the B1G West and there will only be a possible Iowa/Purdue tie breaker (which Iowa would win).

Purdue's next 2 games: vs Northwestern, at Indiana. Both are likely Purdue victories.

11 am games Saturday:
Purdue is a 19.5 point favorite over N'western
Michigan is an 18 pt favorite over Illinois


Purdue won at Minnesota so Purdue has the tie breaker over Minnesota, if necessary.

Bottom line is this: the B1G West champion is going to be either a 6-3 Iowa or a 6-3 Purdue and here's why:

Current Standings:
4-3 Illinois
4-3 Iowa
4-3 Purdue
4-3 Minnesota
3-4 Wisconsin
2-5 Nebraska
1-6 Northwestern

Standings if Iowa wins next 2 games and Illini lose at least 1 of 2:

6-3 Iowa (Iowa has head to head tie breaker over Purdue)
3 losses (at least) Purdue

4 losses (at least) Illinois
4 losses (at least) Minnesota
4 losses (at least) Wisconsin

6 losses (at least) Nebraska
6 losses (at least) Northwestern

5-way tie at 5-4 is still possible Under these scenarios...
They all involve Wisc winning out, Minn beating Iowa, and Iowa beating Neb.
Illinois would win the tiebreaker in all four of these scenarios

ILL

PU

Minn

Iowa

Wisc

ILL

Wisc

NU

Minn

Iowa

NU

Wisc

PU

5

5

5

5

5

ILL

Wisc

PU

Minn

Iowa

NU

Wisc

IU

5

5

5

5

5

MICH

Wisc

NU

Minn

Iowa

ILL

Wisc

PU

5

5

5

5

5

MICH

Wisc

PU

Minn

Iowa

ILL

Wisc

IU

5

5

5

5

5

 

[El Simbolo]

Iowa is going to shutdown Minny's run game. They are a 1 dimensional team right now with out Morgan.

Is Morgan expected to be back this week?

 

[pistachio1999]

Iowa defense is the one that is gonna bring the pain.

 

[pistachio1999]

Illinois is not in the drivers seat.

Maybe Bert ate it?

 

[Steamboat529529]

I honestly think, it’s like 45% Purdue, 40% Iowa, 10% Illinois, 5% Minnesota to make it to Indy.

Illinois has around a 10% chance to beat Michigan. They need to win in Ann Arbor to get to Indy. Should beat Northwestern.

Iowa has around a 43% chance of beating Minnesota. If Casey Thompson doesn’t play for Nebraska against Iowa, Iowa should be a 17 point favorite at home.

Purdue has Northwestern and Indiana left. Should win both games. Iowa has the tiebreaker over Purdue.

Minnesota needs to win at home against Iowa and at Wisconsin, while Purdue needs to lose a game (and Illinois too). Not going to happen.

 

[Franisdaman]

5-way tie at 5-4 is still possible Under these scenarios...
They all involve Wisc winning out, Minn beating Iowa, and Iowa beating Neb.
Illinois would win the tiebreaker in all four of these scenarios

ILL

PU

Minn

Iowa

Wisc

ILL

Wisc

NU

Minn

Iowa

NU

Wisc

PU

5

5

5

5

5

ILL

Wisc

PU

Minn

Iowa

NU

Wisc

IU

5

5

5

5

5

MICH

Wisc

NU

Minn

Iowa

ILL

Wisc

PU

5

5

5

5

5

MICH

Wisc

PU

Minn

Iowa

ILL

Wisc

IU

5

5

5

5

5

yikes.

I still say that the B1G West champion is going to be either a 6-3 Iowa or a 6-3 Purdue

Purdue will definitely win this Saturday vs N'western and if Iowa loses at Minny, Purdue is playing for the B1G West the following week vs Indiana.

 

[desihawk]

michigan from all accounts is looking ahead to osu. trap game opportunity for il.
fortunately game is in ann arbor.

 

[MeetTheFerentzes]

michigan from all accounts is looking ahead to osu. trap game opportunity for il.
fortunately game is in ann arbor.

I think oddsmakers are taking this into account and is why Mich is 17.5 point favorites and not more like 24.

 

[KuwaitHawk]

Nobody controls their own destiny in the west....the driver's seat is empty right now. We have 4 teams fighting in the aisle trying to get that seat.

Are we riding Uber or Lyft?

 

[farina1]

Strange thing is that NO TEAM in the B1G West controls their own destiny at this very moment.

I guess if you have to pick a team that is in the driver's seat, it would be Purdue, since they would go to BTCG if the season goes chalk from here on out.

You would have to say Iowa is second in that regard, because they would only need one small upset to happen, which they are in total control of.

Would probably put Minnesota next, as they would need to win out (which would include an upset at Wisky and pulling off what should be a close game vs Iowa), but still need Purdue to blow one.

Illinois would probably be next, as they would need to pull off one of the biggest upsets this season, but still need help with Purdue suffering a major upset.

Iowa wins and they are in if Illinois loses to Michigan. Hawks just need to take it one game at a time.

 

[Packer54]

1. Illinois needs to lose 1 of the next 2.
2. We need to win out.
That is what is needed for Iowa to win the West.

Any other scenarios or overly wordy discussions are irrelevant and can easily be extrapolated from the above.

This. It’s really easy to figure out people.

 

[jo2knight]

Is Morgan expected to be back this week?

Sounds like a game time decision. He suffered a concussion on 10/15, then "upper body injury" vs Neb. He's practicing, so I'd count on him playing.

 

[MeetTheFerentzes]

1. Illinois needs to lose 1 of the next 2.
2. We need to win out.
That is what is needed for Iowa to win the West.

Any other scenarios or overly wordy discussions are irrelevant and can easily be extrapolated from the above.

No one here is unaware of what Iowa needs to win the B1G West. This thread is about discussing who we think is in the "driver's seat" and coming up with crazy scenarios. There's nothing wrong with that. It's a message board.