Would be fantastic to have the Iowa / Nebraska game be the game to clinch the West.
Also Oliver Martin's return to Kinnick.
Also Oliver Martin's return to Kinnick.
So who's really in the drivers seat to win the West?
- Thread starter El Simbolo
- Start date
Completely forgot about Ollie (can we call him that)?
Yes, Illinois went from being a shoe-in to a teeny-tiny shot of winning in just 2 weeks time. Crazy. Regression to the mean comes to mind. Illini faced 2 teams that can actually throw the ball against their stack the LOS defense and paid for it. I would guess they put up a fight against Michigan but Wolverines are on a mission to get to the Big Game undefeated. Would take huge miracle for Illinois to beat Michigan.
Iowa's task is actually pretty difficult Saturday, Minnesota is good, although they have made a living feasting off bad teams. They have lost to every team on their schedule with a winning record. Their best win is over MSU (5-5). But Gophers are similar to ISU, in that they are extremely motivated to finally beat Iowa.
Gophers, Illinois, Purdue all have coaches who are desperate to get to where Iowa/Wisconsin have been (winning the West). If none of them pull it off this year, with Iowa having one of the worst offenses in college FB and Wisconsin being not very good, it's not ever happening for them.
i do have concerns that il might pull it off. it is a near certainty yhat michigan is looking ahead to osu. if il plays well they could pull it off like they did last year (?) against psu in happyvalley.
How does Illinois win the tie breaker if them, Iowa, & Purdue all win out?
Too lazy to look it up.
Too lazy to look it up.
It is subjective. I think Iowa is in the driver's seat because beating Minnesota is not some big upset, and neither is Nebraska.
And Michigan beating Illinois seems extremely likely.
I think we have the easiest path.
guys (and gals,if there are any) I hate to be negative but the team with the inside track (my verbiage) is.....
PURDUE.
see, they should easily win their two games, and I just do not see Illinois beating Michigan. to paraphrase a famous sports writer, "Illinois is not Man enough to beat Michigan," and they are not.
the problem from our side, as Iowa fans, is that I'm not sure we can with both (or even one) of our remaining games. we should prevail against Minny because I really think they are one dimensional, but if Nebby has Casey thompson back, look out.
so at this point, I just think it will be a 6-3 purdue with a 5-4 (7-5 overall) Iowa going to Nashville or somewhere.
PURDUE.
see, they should easily win their two games, and I just do not see Illinois beating Michigan. to paraphrase a famous sports writer, "Illinois is not Man enough to beat Michigan," and they are not.
the problem from our side, as Iowa fans, is that I'm not sure we can with both (or even one) of our remaining games. we should prevail against Minny because I really think they are one dimensional, but if Nebby has Casey thompson back, look out.
so at this point, I just think it will be a 6-3 purdue with a 5-4 (7-5 overall) Iowa going to Nashville or somewhere.
Purdue eliminated due to 4-2 division record compared to 5-1 for IL & IA; IL then wins head-to-head.
Since they'd all be 6-3 in conference, it goes to division record. Iowa and Illinois would be 5-1 with Purdue 4-2, so Purdue gets eliminated and it goes back to Illinois beating Iowa head to head to break the tie.
Wait....the Hawks are in legitimate contention to win the West and go to the Big Conference Championship game???? Are they bowl eligible....even with 2 games still to play? Hmmm....some of you need to chew that crow or eat your $hit sandwich.....cuz 4 weeks ago you were saying there was no way they'd even make it to bowl eligibility.
No way is Illinois beating Michigan.No way. They screwed the pooch when they lost to MSU. If Iowa beats Minnie,I give us the best odds. Then Purdue with those easy teams left.
It’s crazy that with only two weeks left, no team controls its destiny and there are so many scenarios still. By my analysis, here are the paths for each team in order of easiest to hardest:
Purdue needs to win out and have Iowa lose at least one. Best shot for PU is Iowa at Goophs tomorrow.
Iowa needs to win out and have Illinois lose at least one. Best shot for Hawks is Illini at Meatchicken tomorrow. Goophs will be tough, though. Nebber is Nebber.
Illinois needs to win out and have EITHER Iowa win out or Purdue lose at least one. This requires combination of two events of varying unlikelihood (win in Big House + either Hawk win over Goophs or Boilers slipping up once with fairly easy remaining schedule).
Minnesota needs to win out and have Illinois and Purdue lose at least one.
Wisconsin needs to win out, have Iowa and Illinois lose out, and have Purdue lose at least one. Basically, a miracle.
All that being said, anything can happen.
Edit to note that there are scenarios where Purdue, Iowa, or Illinois could each win at 5-4 without winning out, but they all require some crazy sh*t. Minnesota’s only path is to 6-3, and they are eliminated with any loss.
There is at least one scenario that ends with a 5-way tie at 5-4. Insane.
Purdue needs to win out and have Iowa lose at least one. Best shot for PU is Iowa at Goophs tomorrow.
Iowa needs to win out and have Illinois lose at least one. Best shot for Hawks is Illini at Meatchicken tomorrow. Goophs will be tough, though. Nebber is Nebber.
Illinois needs to win out and have EITHER Iowa win out or Purdue lose at least one. This requires combination of two events of varying unlikelihood (win in Big House + either Hawk win over Goophs or Boilers slipping up once with fairly easy remaining schedule).
Minnesota needs to win out and have Illinois and Purdue lose at least one.
Wisconsin needs to win out, have Iowa and Illinois lose out, and have Purdue lose at least one. Basically, a miracle.
All that being said, anything can happen.
Edit to note that there are scenarios where Purdue, Iowa, or Illinois could each win at 5-4 without winning out, but they all require some crazy sh*t. Minnesota’s only path is to 6-3, and they are eliminated with any loss.
There is at least one scenario that ends with a 5-way tie at 5-4. Insane.
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I have to admit, it, I am shocked at the turnaround Iowa has done, you have potential to win the West... Crazy...
Yep, when Michigan won our chances rose to 28.8%, when Purdue won they went down to 28.2%, and when we won they jumped to 83.5%. Also fun that our win mathematically eliminated Wisconsin!
why is that fun? ... tell 'em @EvilMonkeyInTheCloset
Not to mention those filthy, fvcking Goophs…
Because F*** Wisconsin, that's why!
Good grief. "Predicting" that there would be no double-digit upsets among B1G West contenders these last two weeks is more in the category of Captain Obvious than Nostradamus. But if I were you, I'd bump my own post and time-stamp it.i stand by this post from Tuesday, Nov 15.
