Some interesting 2017 conference stats relating to Iowa

[ghostOfHomer777]

Hawkeye D faced 6 of the top 7 B1G offenses ... and still allowed just 19.9 points per game. Point being - Iowa's cross-overs weren't the likes of Maryland, Rutgers, and Michigan (all of whom had fairly poor total-Os).

Also, as I've posted several times before - despite facing large number of excellent defenses (a large percentage of our foes were within the top 10, top 25 and top 40 in the category of scoring defense), Iowa's scoring O was still the 5th best in the B1G. This is all the more surprising given that the O was the 5th WORST in the B1G in terms of total O!

 

[Pepperman]

On the offensive stat, that surprises me... but then it helps when you beat the crap out of OSU, Nebraska, and Illinois.

I'm hoping for more consistency this year, and none of those games where the offense is completely inept.

If Iowa could be 5th in B1G offense again in 2018, I'd certainly be ok with it!

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

On the offensive stat, that surprises me... but then it helps when you beat the crap out of OSU, Nebraska, and Illinois.

I'm hoping for more consistency this year, and none of those games where the offense is completely inept.

If Iowa could be 5th in B1G offense again in 2018, I'd certainly be ok with it!

Yeah, it makes you wonder what the Iowa O could actually do if they are able to play with greater consistency. However, part of that was also attributable to the fact that Stanley really had a ton of different things thrown at him by opposing defenses. Thus, we usually struggled the most when he was trying to react to intense pressure. Now that he knows the O so much better and now that he knows the ins-and-outs of prepping for games so much better ... maybe he'll be able to dissect tape better and be able to react a little faster. If your timing is just a bit better ... that can often be the difference between a bad pass and a completion.

Furthermore, with the greater understanding, he'll also likely have more options at his disposal (provided that the rest of the O can execute such options) in terms of audibles. Also, he may end up having a greater willingness to run when the moment is appropriate. All these factors can end up putting a lot more pressure on opposing Ds.

 

[Suterman]

The schedule is favorable but we do have a lot of question marks. Offensively the QB will be solid as well as the Tight Ends. No problems there. I am optimistic about the OL but there are questions. RB's same. We haven't seen Toren and IKM as the bell cows yet. Can they do it? Who is the 3rd? WR"s ??? We have Nick Easley, ISM as our 2 best Wide Receivers. Who else steps up?
Defensively the back 4 look solid and the D line is talented and experienced. I don't see major problems there. The LB position who knows? Good athletes but little experience. Miguel Recinos is a fine kicker, but our punters are still a work in progress.
All this being said, I think we see 8-9 wins in the regular season if we can stay reasonably healthy. 10 wins is in the cards if the questions above are answered in a positive fashion.

 

[paladinhawk]

The offensive stats from last year are basically 'manic/depressive' - all over the map. There's justification to claim the offense was good (efficiency) and equal justification to claim it was pretty horrible (total O). I hope in 2018 that the Iowa O can improve on 3rd conversion rate (#105 last year) and sustain longer drives.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

The schedule is favorable but we do have a lot of question marks. Offensively the QB will be solid as well as the Tight Ends. No problems there. I am optimistic about the OL but there are questions. RB's same. We haven't seen Toren and IKM as the bell cows yet. Can they do it? Who is the 3rd? WR"s ??? We have Nick Easley, ISM as our 2 best Wide Receivers. Who else steps up?
Defensively the back 4 look solid and the D line is talented and experienced. I don't see major problems there. The LB position who knows? Good athletes but little experience. Miguel Recinos is a fine kicker, but our punters are still a work in progress.
All this being said, I think we see 8-9 wins in the regular season if we can stay reasonably healthy. 10 wins is in the cards if the questions above are answered in a positive fashion.

Consider what our WR situation looked like entering the 2017 season. Our "veteran" guy was coming off of 2 consecutive foot injuries and he was being to execute within a new offense that he didn't get to work within during the prior spring due to said injury.

Entering 2018, we now have a guy who is proven (Easley), a guy who is somewhat proven (ISM), a guy who generated A LOT of internal buzz (B. Smith), and a guy who could very well be a poor-mans Easley/McCarron (Groeneweg). And, the above doesn't account for the possible emergence of guys like Tracy or Cooper (among others).

From my vantage, while the Iowa WR situation isn't truly healthy YET ... it's still worlds better than it was last year.

As for RBs, that's dependent on not just the guys themselves ... but also on the blockers around them. We return Ross and FB and our TEs should be better as blockers ... so both of those features should be positives. As for the OL ... I kinda have a wait-and-see attitude about them.

 

[bloodredd]

I like to think that the Offense was showing "flashes " last year as opposed to just being wildly inconsistent. Wishful thinking? This year should help clarify...

 

[kceasthawk]

The schedule is favorable but we do have a lot of question marks. Offensively the QB will be solid as well as the Tight Ends. No problems there. I am optimistic about the OL but there are questions. RB's same. We haven't seen Toren and IKM as the bell cows yet. Can they do it? Who is the 3rd? WR"s ??? We have Nick Easley, ISM as our 2 best Wide Receivers. Who else steps up?
Defensively the back 4 look solid and the D line is talented and experienced. I don't see major problems there. The LB position who knows? Good athletes but little experience. Miguel Recinos is a fine kicker, but our punters are still a work in progress.
All this being said, I think we see 8-9 wins in the regular season if we can stay reasonably healthy. 10 wins is in the cards if the questions above are answered in a positive fashion.

I have absolutely ZERO concerns about Young or IKM. If the OL does their job effectively, we'll run the ball with success. If they struggle so will the backs, no matter who we run out there.

 

[kceasthawk]

Consider what our WR situation looked like entering the 2017 season. Our "veteran" guy was coming off of 2 consecutive foot injuries and he was being to execute within a new offense that he didn't get to work within during the prior spring due to said injury.

Entering 2018, we now have a guy who is proven (Easley), a guy who is somewhat proven (ISM), a guy who generated A LOT of internal buzz (B. Smith), and a guy who could very well be a poor-mans Easley/McCarron (Groeneweg). And, the above doesn't account for the possible emergence of guys like Tracy or Cooper (among others).

From my vantage, while the Iowa WR situation isn't truly healthy YET ... it's still worlds better than it was last year.

As for RBs, that's dependent on not just the guys themselves ... but also on the blockers around them. We return Ross and FB and our TEs should be better as blockers ... so both of those features should be positives. As for the OL ... I kinda have a wait-and-see attitude about them.

Just have this feeling that between the Paulsens, Banwart, Reynolds, Render, Williams, Kallenburger, Kirkpatrick, Duwa, and Schott, (who is tearing up the weight room), they'll find three or four guys who can get it done in the middle. (Yes I know Kallenburger is a back up tackle), but he may play a year or two at guard as well. I think we'll be light years ahead of last season at tackle to start game one. It may take a game or two too jell, but could see this line develop into something special.

 

[anon_8rcdnbko1jbe0]

Hawkeye D faced 6 of the top 7 B1G offenses ... and still allowed just 19.9 points per game. Point being - Iowa's cross-overs weren't the likes of Maryland, Rutgers, and Michigan (all of whom had fairly poor total-Os).

Also, as I've posted several times before - despite facing large number of excellent defenses (a large percentage of our foes were within the top 10, top 25 and top 40 in the category of scoring defense), Iowa's scoring O was still the 5th best in the B1G. This is all the more surprising given that the O was the 5th WORST in the B1G in terms of total O!

Thanks ghost great stuff! Unfortunately I'm driving around today but I didn't have time to look up the Red Zone scoring for Iowa's offense last year. Does that fall in line with that overall scoring rank of 5th?

 

[bloodredd]

and Schott,

I've been wondering about him. He absolutely flattened Dillon Doyle in one of the practice clips....

 

[JLDHAWK]

Hawkeye D faced 6 of the top 7 B1G offenses ... and still allowed just 19.9 points per game. Point being - Iowa's cross-overs weren't the likes of Maryland, Rutgers, and Michigan (all of whom had fairly poor total-Os).

Also, as I've posted several times before - despite facing large number of excellent defenses (a large percentage of our foes were within the top 10, top 25 and top 40 in the category of scoring defense), Iowa's scoring O was still the 5th best in the B1G. This is all the more surprising given that the O was the 5th WORST in the B1G in terms of total O!

How good were those offenses nationally because I don't generally think the BIG has many Top 25 Offenses each year? If we were in the Big 12 it might be a different story

 

[Pawkhawk1]

How good were those offenses nationally because I don't generally think the BIG has many Top 25 Offenses each year? If we were in the Big 12 it might be a different story

Yes, but the Big 12 doesn’t play big boy defense either.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

How good were those offenses nationally because I don't generally think the BIG has many Top 25 Offenses each year? If we were in the Big 12 it might be a different story

Another contrast, is look at the average weather in B12 country as compared to the average weather in B1G country. I'd argue that the warmer, milder weather in B12 country tends to lend itself better to more pass-happy offenses. Given that style of play, it influences the style of play in the high schools in those areas ... and that tends to reinforce having Os play that style within the region. That's part of the reason why I feel that Iowa State set itself up for a marked disadvantage when it tried to implement the same O as other B12 teams. That's why I think Campbell deserves to be commended for implementing an O that has more "power" elements to it.

Anyhow, while B1G fans might complain about B12 defenses ... I'd also point out that it is typically harder to rack up the yardage when the wind and weather of the late fall can effectively halve the number of "good series" that you have with the wind. That's why ALL the better B1G teams place emphasis on a solid running game. Of course, by placing an emphasis on a running game, then the clock runs more ... and further reduces the number of offensive plays your can run (even if you tend to go up-tempo). Fewer plays ultimately also leads to less yardage overall.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

How good were those offenses nationally because I don't generally think the BIG has many Top 25 Offenses each year? If we were in the Big 12 it might be a different story

Anyhow, to answer your question - Ohio State had a top 10 offense in 2017. However, otherwise the B1G only had 3 teams rank in the top 50 in terms of total O. In terms of scoring O, both Ohio State and Penn State were BOTH in the top 10.

 

[Wasnt-drunk-didnt-troll]

That bad weather thing would pay dividends if they played the playoffs or natty outside in the cold. Kinda hard to go after the b12/pac/sec for being pansies and playing in warm weather when all the championships are in a dome.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Thanks ghost great stuff! Unfortunately I'm driving around today but I didn't have time to look up the Red Zone scoring for Iowa's offense last year. Does that fall in line with that overall scoring rank of 5th?

Just did the spread sheet .... here are some further intriguing "Easter eggs:"

• Hawks had the 3rd worst red-zone scoring percentage (79.6 percent) as compared to the league's best ... Penn State had a percentage of 89.8%
• Hawks had the 5th BEST red-zone TD percentage (65.3%). The percentages for the top 4 were: PSU (78.0%), Northwestern (69.5%), OSU (66.2%), and Wisconsin (66.1%).
• Hawks were ranked 8th in the B1G in 3rd down conversions (34.4%). In contrast, Wisconsin was the league best with 48.6%. The league worst was Maryland with 28.6%. Given that the Hawks pride themselves as a pro-style, ball control O .... such a poor 3rd down percentage reflects a team that isn't sustaining drives.
• Complementing the prior point, the Hawks also ranked 10th in the B1G as it relates to number of 1st downs per game. The Hawks were at 17.4 first downs per game compared to the league best of 25.3 (Ohio State) and the league worst of 13.8 (Rutgers).
• While not exclusively an offensive stat - the Hawks were tied for 2nd in turnover margin. All the turnovers the Hawks certain aided Iowa some relating to field position (and it most certainly helped relating to scoring D).
• I didn't tally the precise numbers, but also Iowa was one of the better teams as it related to kick-off returns. Like the turnovers, this also helped the Hawks manage to get in scoring position, despite our troubles sustaining drives.
• Countering some of the prior numbers, the Hawks also ranked 13th in Net Punting. This obvious inhibited our ability to "flip the field" ... and, on average, this clearly hurt our field position (relative to that of our opponents).

A primary "take-home" message that excites me is the following ... what happens if Iowa can sustain drives? The implication should be that the Hawks will likely see more red-zone opportunities. If we can continue to have a good red-zone TD percentage ... and perhaps improve it ... then that would obviously lead the Hawks to have an even better scoring O. While I anticipate that the Hawks will continue to be aggressive on the opponents side of the field AND continue to go-for-it on 4th downs ... what happens if the Hawks can continue to raise our scoring efficiency too? While our punting game is still certainly an unknown ... our place kicking game appears to be in very capable hands with Recinos.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

That bad weather thing would pay dividends if they played the playoffs or natty outside in the cold. Kinda hard to go after the b12/pac/sec for being pansies and playing in warm weather when all the championships are in a dome.

That's part of the reason why I'd venture to guess that the B1G's championship game tends to be a higher scoring affair than the average B1G game in late November.

 

[Wasnt-drunk-didnt-troll]

You just had to bring up the punting.......

 

[ctghawk]

The offensive stats from last year are basically 'manic/depressive' - all over the map. There's justification to claim the offense was good (efficiency) and equal justification to claim it was pretty horrible (total O). I hope in 2018 that the Iowa O can improve on 3rd conversion rate (#105 last year) and sustain longer drives.

The Purdue game still makes me nauseous.

 

[Pepperman]

A primary "take-home" message that excites me is the following ... what happens if Iowa can sustain drives? The implication should be that the Hawks will likely see more red-zone opportunities. If we can continue to have a good red-zone TD percentage ... and perhaps improve it ... then that would obviously lead the Hawks to have an even better scoring O. While I anticipate that the Hawks will continue to be aggressive on the opponents side of the field AND continue to go-for-it on 4th downs ... what happens if the Hawks can continue to raise our scoring efficiency too? While our punting game is still certainly an unknown ... our place kicking game appears to be in very capable hands with Recinos.

Appreciate all of the stats you brought to this post. But with regards to the bolded part, "what happens if Iowa can sustain drives?" 2002 happens.

 

[Hawkdome]

We dont intend to punt in the important games.

 

[paladinhawk]

Just did the spread sheet .... here are some further intriguing "Easter eggs:"

• Hawks had the 3rd worst red-zone scoring percentage (79.6 percent) as compared to the league's best ... Penn State had a percentage of 89.8%
• Hawks had the 5th BEST red-zone TD percentage (65.3%). The percentages for the top 4 were: PSU (78.0%), Northwestern (69.5%), OSU (66.2%), and Wisconsin (66.1%).

edited for major brain fart related to field goal distance. An attempt from the 20 is a 37 yard attempt , so Recinos was 6/7 from the red zone

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Appreciate all of the stats you brought to this post. But with regards to the bolded part, "what happens if Iowa can sustain drives?" 2002 happens.

2002 or 2015 happens ... definitely nice best-case scenarios. Interestingly, in each of those cases, the D was far from infallible. The O was able to compensate for some of the Ds deficiencies. In '02, the DL and safety play (along with pretty good LB play) complemented the O and was able to compensate for a pretty mediocre pass-D (largely due to youth, inexperience, and injuries at CB).

In '15, the D still had some real inexperience at a number of key spots (RDE due to Ott's injury, WILL, LEO, and SS). However, the leadership of key guys on the D complemented the O and helped compensate for some of the defensive deficiencies.

Hopefully, in '18, the DL and safety play can compensate for the LBs ... to go a long with an O that can hopefully give them some wiggle room too!