I don't know what's dumber - this measuring stick or the yard sign one.
Someone convince me this is wrong...
- Thread starter coloradonoles
- Start date
BLM riots in Philly will suppress Democrat turnout there. Hard to vote when the polling place is on fire.
This is why Trump has been pounding Western/Central Pennsylvania with rallies.
This is why Trump has been pounding Western/Central Pennsylvania with rallies.
If crowd size at campaign rallies really mattered, we would have a President Sanders right now.
Nationwide vote will be for Biden. The electoral college will again be vilified. Thing is, it is doing what it is supposed to do. Trump is going to win though.
Looking forward to the snowflake meltdown again on Tuesday.
I wish you everlasting happiness, Del.
I believe the “lawyering” and ballot contestations this year will be unprecedented. I am sure Trump lawyers will be working OT trying to invalidate mail-I’m votesa, especially if they (Trump) show leads based on “ live” votes of Tuesday...but then, the Dems will have their lawyers, too...and if the SC gets involved, Will their 2000 Florida decision have any precedent...or will they decide “ that was different”? Interesting times...
Used to be, stealing elections was a Dem specialty.....I don’t think this is the case any more.,
Remember 2012 and unskew the polls guy? Even if they are dead on a certain segment of society will continue to argue they are all biased against them.
I don't think it will be close enough to be contested.
A big difference from 2016 where there were polls that had Hillary ahead by a solid margin is that there was far more disagreement between the various polls as well as far more movement in those polls throughout the campaign. Whereas this year, the polls have been far more stable and in agreement with each other.
Agreed. Another thing that seemingly has changed is that there are far more state polls this year than before, in large part because pollsters have tried to correct this error. Previously, state polls have been few and far between, and notoriously inaccurate. There has been a massive effort to correct this.
I feel like this election has 2 outcomes that are the most likely: 1) Biden wins big, or 2) Trump wins narrowly. Biden just has too many of the battleground states where he's had a consistent lead and even if he loses half, he still likely gets to 300+.
This is exactly what is wrong with this place, quite frankly the world in general and most importantly with the 2 of you.
You may not like my conclusions. That's fine and it's something to be debated or hashed out... or not.
I take a rash of shit around here, which is also fine... but it's not for being ill-informed. I don't comment on every single subject (like many do, and imagine the likelihood of being right ALL the time). I'm even comfortable saying I am sometimes wrong, But I pick the "battles" I feel I am right about...
The topics I do mix it up, I can at least back my reasoning up. You may think I interpret the ideas completely wrong but at least I have a grasp on the facts, I have searched for the truth. Many on here come to a conclusion simply on a feeling, hunch or defacto "Trump bad".
But by all means keep up with your ad hominem attacks on me.
Searched for the truth. Sure. You're no partisan hack. You're engaged in an honest lifelong pursuit of the truth! Sorry for the ad hominem attacks, now that I know how highly you think of yourself I'll just attack your character instead.
You believe the BEST Biden can hope for is a 280-258 loss. You say you aren't ill-informed. What could this board possibly say to convince you, an informed individual, that your opinion is wrong? Your opinion doesn't line up with that of professional pollsters. You would know that as you are informed. If you don't believe professionals that do this for a living, why would us random non-professionals spend time trying to change your mind?
Lol, claiming that Biden’s best case scenario is 260 electoral votes isn’t “having a grasp on the facts,” it is living in a fairy tale land.
Spot on. Biden's floor is 226 right now. His ceiling if every single thing goes his way (AZ, NV, TX, IA, WI, MI, PA, OH, NE-02, ME-02, NC, GA and FL) is 413.
Here is my best guess right now. I will take a final stab at it on Monday afternoon.
Honestly, the OP is not at all out of the question. It's laughable to say it is Biden's best possible result, but it is a legit possibility. I have run some numbers, and this is very tight:
If Biden wins every state where he currently leads:
* 349 to 189 Biden victory
If the poll in every state is off by the same margin it was off in 2016:
* 307 to 231 Biden victory (NC,AZ,GA go to Trump)
The above includes a VERY narrow win in Florida. If Trump takes Florida:
* 278 to 260 Biden victory
* Honestly, I think this is the most likely scenario
Assuming the above, to win Trump would then need to get one upset from WI, MI, or PA. And that would still mean Biden wins the popular vote by about 8 million votes.
If Biden wins every state where he currently leads:
* 349 to 189 Biden victory
If the poll in every state is off by the same margin it was off in 2016:
* 307 to 231 Biden victory (NC,AZ,GA go to Trump)
The above includes a VERY narrow win in Florida. If Trump takes Florida:
* 278 to 260 Biden victory
* Honestly, I think this is the most likely scenario
Assuming the above, to win Trump would then need to get one upset from WI, MI, or PA. And that would still mean Biden wins the popular vote by about 8 million votes.
More pressure on Trump supporters to remain silent this time around. More visceral attacks.
Honest question, why do you think that's the most likely scenario? Biden leads in all 3 of WI, MI or PA by at least 5% last I saw. PA is the closest I believe. Also, he is leading, though narrowly, in NC.
There are far more paths to victory for Biden than Trump currently.
Why do Trump voters have to "remain silent" when being polled? You are actually going with that is the reason the polls are off? Please explain.
Also, you said this: "The electoral college will again be vilified. Thing is, it is doing what it is supposed to do."
Why is the EC "doing what it is supposed to do" if more people actually want someone else to be President? I would like to understand that too ... Thanks!
The most likely scenario that leads to the above total means:
* No big upsets
* Trumps wins all of the close states, just like last time (NC, GA, FL, AZ, GA)
Honestly, I think any close state based on polls will go the GOP for the foreseeable future. Because polls only show people who intend to vote, and don't take into consideration the considerable obstacles to voting that the GOP has put in place in those states.
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Explain how this works. Some anonymous person conducting a phone poll hears you are voting for Trump and then what - calls your neighbors and tells them? Puts your information in the ANTIFA database for future attack? 🤔
There is a known relationship between social trust and response rates. And there is lower social trust among republican voters, so they respond at lower rates.
This is actually one of the factors that pollsters have compensated for over the last couple of cycles. I can't find the specific link right now that discusses the compensation, but here is another discussion of the underlying trust issue driving your question.
Survey Nonresponse Bias, Declining Social Trust, and 2016 Polling Error
Response Rate Decline and Resulting Bias The decline of response rates is one of the most serious methodological and even existential problems that survey research faces today. Interview yield rate…
agadjanianpolitics.wordpress.com
Corn and soybean prices have recovered to fine levels. Farmers happy again. Trump will win the farm vote and, hence, Iowa.
I heard on the radio this morning that Trump won Wisconsin by ~22k votes in a year where voter turnout in Milwaukee was down 20%.If they have good turnout there it could flip Wisconsin easily.
The polls are wrong.... I don't know how else to tell you.
If you understood how they actually arrive at the numbers they produce you will be shocked.
Look at the numbers of people who have actually voted early... in Florida specifically, more Rep have voted than Dem. Now it is possible that people voted across the lines for which they are registered.
Some polls have Biden up 6%
If you understood how they actually arrive at the numbers they produce you will be shocked.
Look at the numbers of people who have actually voted early... in Florida specifically, more Rep have voted than Dem. Now it is possible that people voted across the lines for which they are registered.
Some polls have Biden up 6%
Fear of Big Brother.....
Fear of offending anyone listening, starting a fight.
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Just to be clear - you, a random poster on a Hawkeye message board - has a better handle on proper, scientific polling than the professionals who are being paid handsomely by actual campaigns that have a real stake in their accuracy?
This is your contention?
Biden has a much bigger lead in WI than Hillary had. He should win, and basically must win, WI.
JFC, it is supposed to allow all States have input into who is choosen as President. Otherwise, they will all just pander to NY, FL, CA, TX and send pork there. **** the needs of the flyover States.
I agree with you about the pandering to NY, FL, CA and TX comment (believe it or not - I don't want the EC abolished altogether), however, even in Iowa, Nebraska, MN, Wisconsin you have people who's vote basically isn't being tallied either (because of the "winner take all" method, which changed in the Thomas Jefferson days ... originally, the EC was setup more like Maine and Nebraska). The EC needs to be updated to allow for more granular counting (not winner take all).
Government doesn't work when the MAJORITY of the people don't want the leaders that are in place, that isn't rocket science ... this time around, even if Trump somehow rigs the system (via voter suppression or the courts or both), he will likely lose the popular vote by ~10million. That isn't how democracy is supposed to work.
The real pollsters that work for the campaigns, no... Nate Silver who has been wrong more than he has been right, it's possible.
I don't have nearly the bias or desire to tip the election one way or another. I don't have that power, he does. You cannot even fathom a pollster who fudges the numbers. There is no downside. They have no reputation left to destroy. It happens all the time where they ask one side more than the other. And before you go thinking its only a Dem thing... Rep pollsters do it too.
Nothing is what it appears. Everything is filtered through the eyes of partisan people who have motives.
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So you are just paranoid. That tracks.
