It's too early to say much but I sense people were wanting to think ahead, and maybe I'm not ready to stop thinking Hawkeyes just yet myself. So here are some of my feelings about the upcoming season, in no particular order.
1) We simply don't know much of anything good or bad at this point except that we have our four seniors and Jok and Uhl coming back. That's even a stretch as how do we know that Uhl doesn't get homesick? There are Universities in Germany! That's just simply an example of how much speculation is required in any speculative examination of Iowa's potential in 2015/16. (There is a clue in there as to what my conclusions are going to be.)
2) But let's say all six are Hawkeyes in 2015/16. We know we get four starters back. That's not a bad thing. Not off a Big Ten team that finished 12-6! Not when one of them made third team All Big Ten, according to the coaches anyway. Our four returning starters gave us 96 minutes per game. We might as well add Clemmons to the mix as he was a significant player throughout the year. Twenty minutes per game. I'm going to leave Uhl off the list of returning players as he only played ten minutes per game and quite frankly he is still an uncertainty closer to a freshman than a returning player, in my opinion.
So these five returning guys.
Gesell: Starting Point Guard. 25 mpg. Shot .408 and .267 on the season. Scored 7.4 ppg. 135/61 assists to turnovers.
Clemmons: PG/SG. 20 mpg. Shot .381 and .373 on the year. Scored 4.8 ppg. 64/38
Jok: SG/SF. 20 mpg. Shot .358 and .343. Scored 7.0 ppg. 44/43 (I'll bet people thought the turnovers would be higher)
Uthoff: SF/PF. 30 mpg. .430 and .372. 12.4 ppg. 6.4 reb. (To me, Jared could play the four.)
Woodbury: C. 20.5 mpg. .489. 6.6 ppg and 5.4 reb.
I think it is fair to say one could push the minutes from about 115 to around 130. That means we'll be looking for at least three more contributors. But before we get to that let's look at some composite numbers as I think they reveal some good and bad. Returning/losing stats:
PPG: 38.2/27.7 (I'm counting the five guys above as the returning players and only the three seniors as those gone.)
FG's: 471/1137 41.4% leaving 298-629 47.2%
3 PT: 128/369 34.7% leaving 49/155 32.2%
REB: 614/474
A/T: 282/227 and 111/100 out the door.
FT: 229/323 70% and 294/367 80% leaving
Minor significance. We get our primary ball handlers back but the loss of Oglesby 48/21 means that at the guard spot we have no legitimate handler besides Clemmons and Gesell. Essentially, we HAVE no other proven guards. We can call Jok a guard all we want, but he was as much a guard as a short stretch four. (I said I would be honest
)
Major issue. Look at the free throws we not only lose but the percentage of them that we made!
Major issue. Not only are we losing about 42% of our scoring, but much of that was high percentage shots and we simply don't show much as far as capability to replace those points. In other words. White and Olaseni are gone! And we've got to find a rebounder or two as well.
Based on the numbers. Our returning players don't have what it takes to replace our first team All Big Ten power forward and Sixth man of the year Center.
That, folks, is a far cry from last season when we lost Marble, Basabe and McCabe and all we had to do is add some minutes to White, Uthoff...hope for someone to step up at guard and we knew that points wise Marble was just a volume scorer anyway. That, last year, was easy! This year, without reserves looking to fill the void, is going to be tough.
3) The good news is our juniors were some of our best defenders. That's half the game that we shouldn't forget about. Olaseni's defense was overrated, and White wasn't stopping anyone either.
4) Dominique Uhl. So I left him off the returning players. He played ten minutes per game but by seasons end was seeing less minutes and his contributions had gone down. 10 mpg, .361 and .185. 2.1 ppg, 1.8 reb. Dom is better off we just start over and call year one a working redshirt. We saw what he brings a bit and his potential is there. And, yes he will probably be our sixth man and backup both forward positions. But he didn't give indications of being ready to be a scorer for us. He is, however another excellent defender.
5) Tossing Uhl back in the mix now. It is clear we are going to suffer big time on the offensive end of the court. We lost such a big part of our half court offense. We could use a scorer or two, a rebounder or two, some depth at guard, and of course there is some question as to what we do to replace Woodbury when he sits. But this isn't as big of a deal now that someone, me, has finally pointed out that Woodbury was our only real inside defender anyway.
Don't believe me? Go back and look at the games where Woody was in foul trouble. We were eaten alive on the interior. I liked Gabe but all he did was go shot block hunting on defense.
So, Woody haters, and Gesell and Clemmons haters, time to appreciate that they were the guts of the defense and we still have that in 2014/15. Learn to love it, as other than firing up threes at 35% We don't have much offense. Not even Uthoff unless he gets that percentage up. As it is he's around a Devyn Marble rate...volume shooter. We could get by with it but then it would be the defense winning games for us, like in 2013/14 until our defense fell apart.
Sounds kind of scary. That's because we only have six guys coming back and for the first time since the 2012/13 season we need help from the new guys!
6) The new guys. A link. Study this, or believe it. But we can drop the crud about whether we are the tenth best or fifth worst recruiting class, or whatever our proof is by the bubbles when we shake it. The good/bad news is nobody really knows what recruits will bring until they bring it.
http://epublications.marquette.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1013&context=cps_professional (This was originally found and linked by ICan'tfindausenamethatisnottaken.)
Again, if you don't at least read the conclusion to this study, please just stop posting about rankings If all you do is search the name of a player to count stars? Don't begin to think you can say which kid is going to be better for Iowa. And by the way, you should probably stop telling people you are a good cook just because you figured out the buttons on the microwave.
So with that stirring admonition to the in a hurry to know crowd, here is whatever is left that we MIGHT know.
7) Brady Ellingson will be back if he choses to be. And we've got five commits and one scholarship to give. All of these players are pretty much wing types. Shooting guard to maybe a couple in Hutton and Wagner that we could nudge into a power forward role on defense.
Ellingson, Fleming and Moss are reputed to be guys that can hit some outside shots. So we could potentially add to the one thing we have coming back on offense.
But with these bodies, and purported athleticism, we might make up some half court troubles with a robust fast break. And I think it is fair to expect that.
Defensively, once one gets past believing that this last season we were much better than just one post player anyway, it is quite possible that we could improve! (We shouldn't be any worse.)
8) The McCaffery Solution/Conclusion. Maybe something we CAN start hanging our hopes on, since the Astrologists have been blown off the map by modern science and math, is that McCaffery has shown an ability to find and develop talent.
A presume we are ready to say now that White, Olaseni, Gesell, Woodbury, Clemmons, Uthoff and even Jok have all gotten better during their time at Iowa? It may not be perfect, but overall isn't it likely that our five returned very experienced players might take another step up? That Uhl could see some offensive sets tossed his way?
And I suspect we might agree that between Ellingson and the five 2015 commits and one possible player to be named later.....SOMEBODY or two will be ready to step in and contribute?
I'm counting on it. Just based on the "odds" that I've kind of calculated in my head of McCaffery successes. I'm expecting a player to step in and be a four year starter starting next year. And a couple more to be the depth we need.
I'm making a calculated guess based on having seen typical results from McCaffery recruiting. That, and remembering we had two, sometimes three, starting freshmen in 2012/13 and still won 25 games.
9) The recap.
A) Five experienced returning players, good defense coming back.
B) Our offense is going to need help. Even our FT shooting looks to stink.
C) Woody really was our only post defender anyway.
D) Uhl and a bunch of newbies, recruiting is not done, and we can't believe star rankings anyway.
E) But if we allow ourselves to believe past experiences and results...we COULD have the guys it takes to be a good team again.
We've got nothing that says we won't be, but there are things that we need to fill in some gaps to be as good as 2014/15. And we've got plenty of new bodies to pick from to find those things.
Now doesn't that make it all crystal clear?
1) We simply don't know much of anything good or bad at this point except that we have our four seniors and Jok and Uhl coming back. That's even a stretch as how do we know that Uhl doesn't get homesick? There are Universities in Germany! That's just simply an example of how much speculation is required in any speculative examination of Iowa's potential in 2015/16. (There is a clue in there as to what my conclusions are going to be.)
2) But let's say all six are Hawkeyes in 2015/16. We know we get four starters back. That's not a bad thing. Not off a Big Ten team that finished 12-6! Not when one of them made third team All Big Ten, according to the coaches anyway. Our four returning starters gave us 96 minutes per game. We might as well add Clemmons to the mix as he was a significant player throughout the year. Twenty minutes per game. I'm going to leave Uhl off the list of returning players as he only played ten minutes per game and quite frankly he is still an uncertainty closer to a freshman than a returning player, in my opinion.
So these five returning guys.
Gesell: Starting Point Guard. 25 mpg. Shot .408 and .267 on the season. Scored 7.4 ppg. 135/61 assists to turnovers.
Clemmons: PG/SG. 20 mpg. Shot .381 and .373 on the year. Scored 4.8 ppg. 64/38
Jok: SG/SF. 20 mpg. Shot .358 and .343. Scored 7.0 ppg. 44/43 (I'll bet people thought the turnovers would be higher)
Uthoff: SF/PF. 30 mpg. .430 and .372. 12.4 ppg. 6.4 reb. (To me, Jared could play the four.)
Woodbury: C. 20.5 mpg. .489. 6.6 ppg and 5.4 reb.
I think it is fair to say one could push the minutes from about 115 to around 130. That means we'll be looking for at least three more contributors. But before we get to that let's look at some composite numbers as I think they reveal some good and bad. Returning/losing stats:
PPG: 38.2/27.7 (I'm counting the five guys above as the returning players and only the three seniors as those gone.)
FG's: 471/1137 41.4% leaving 298-629 47.2%
3 PT: 128/369 34.7% leaving 49/155 32.2%
REB: 614/474
A/T: 282/227 and 111/100 out the door.
FT: 229/323 70% and 294/367 80% leaving
Minor significance. We get our primary ball handlers back but the loss of Oglesby 48/21 means that at the guard spot we have no legitimate handler besides Clemmons and Gesell. Essentially, we HAVE no other proven guards. We can call Jok a guard all we want, but he was as much a guard as a short stretch four. (I said I would be honest
Major issue. Look at the free throws we not only lose but the percentage of them that we made!
Major issue. Not only are we losing about 42% of our scoring, but much of that was high percentage shots and we simply don't show much as far as capability to replace those points. In other words. White and Olaseni are gone! And we've got to find a rebounder or two as well.
Based on the numbers. Our returning players don't have what it takes to replace our first team All Big Ten power forward and Sixth man of the year Center.
That, folks, is a far cry from last season when we lost Marble, Basabe and McCabe and all we had to do is add some minutes to White, Uthoff...hope for someone to step up at guard and we knew that points wise Marble was just a volume scorer anyway. That, last year, was easy! This year, without reserves looking to fill the void, is going to be tough.
3) The good news is our juniors were some of our best defenders. That's half the game that we shouldn't forget about. Olaseni's defense was overrated, and White wasn't stopping anyone either.
4) Dominique Uhl. So I left him off the returning players. He played ten minutes per game but by seasons end was seeing less minutes and his contributions had gone down. 10 mpg, .361 and .185. 2.1 ppg, 1.8 reb. Dom is better off we just start over and call year one a working redshirt. We saw what he brings a bit and his potential is there. And, yes he will probably be our sixth man and backup both forward positions. But he didn't give indications of being ready to be a scorer for us. He is, however another excellent defender.
5) Tossing Uhl back in the mix now. It is clear we are going to suffer big time on the offensive end of the court. We lost such a big part of our half court offense. We could use a scorer or two, a rebounder or two, some depth at guard, and of course there is some question as to what we do to replace Woodbury when he sits. But this isn't as big of a deal now that someone, me, has finally pointed out that Woodbury was our only real inside defender anyway.
Don't believe me? Go back and look at the games where Woody was in foul trouble. We were eaten alive on the interior. I liked Gabe but all he did was go shot block hunting on defense.
So, Woody haters, and Gesell and Clemmons haters, time to appreciate that they were the guts of the defense and we still have that in 2014/15. Learn to love it, as other than firing up threes at 35% We don't have much offense. Not even Uthoff unless he gets that percentage up. As it is he's around a Devyn Marble rate...volume shooter. We could get by with it but then it would be the defense winning games for us, like in 2013/14 until our defense fell apart.
Sounds kind of scary. That's because we only have six guys coming back and for the first time since the 2012/13 season we need help from the new guys!
6) The new guys. A link. Study this, or believe it. But we can drop the crud about whether we are the tenth best or fifth worst recruiting class, or whatever our proof is by the bubbles when we shake it. The good/bad news is nobody really knows what recruits will bring until they bring it.
http://epublications.marquette.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1013&context=cps_professional (This was originally found and linked by ICan'tfindausenamethatisnottaken.)
Again, if you don't at least read the conclusion to this study, please just stop posting about rankings If all you do is search the name of a player to count stars? Don't begin to think you can say which kid is going to be better for Iowa. And by the way, you should probably stop telling people you are a good cook just because you figured out the buttons on the microwave.
So with that stirring admonition to the in a hurry to know crowd, here is whatever is left that we MIGHT know.
7) Brady Ellingson will be back if he choses to be. And we've got five commits and one scholarship to give. All of these players are pretty much wing types. Shooting guard to maybe a couple in Hutton and Wagner that we could nudge into a power forward role on defense.
Ellingson, Fleming and Moss are reputed to be guys that can hit some outside shots. So we could potentially add to the one thing we have coming back on offense.
But with these bodies, and purported athleticism, we might make up some half court troubles with a robust fast break. And I think it is fair to expect that.
Defensively, once one gets past believing that this last season we were much better than just one post player anyway, it is quite possible that we could improve! (We shouldn't be any worse.)
8) The McCaffery Solution/Conclusion. Maybe something we CAN start hanging our hopes on, since the Astrologists have been blown off the map by modern science and math, is that McCaffery has shown an ability to find and develop talent.
A presume we are ready to say now that White, Olaseni, Gesell, Woodbury, Clemmons, Uthoff and even Jok have all gotten better during their time at Iowa? It may not be perfect, but overall isn't it likely that our five returned very experienced players might take another step up? That Uhl could see some offensive sets tossed his way?
And I suspect we might agree that between Ellingson and the five 2015 commits and one possible player to be named later.....SOMEBODY or two will be ready to step in and contribute?
I'm counting on it. Just based on the "odds" that I've kind of calculated in my head of McCaffery successes. I'm expecting a player to step in and be a four year starter starting next year. And a couple more to be the depth we need.
I'm making a calculated guess based on having seen typical results from McCaffery recruiting. That, and remembering we had two, sometimes three, starting freshmen in 2012/13 and still won 25 games.
9) The recap.
A) Five experienced returning players, good defense coming back.
B) Our offense is going to need help. Even our FT shooting looks to stink.
C) Woody really was our only post defender anyway.
D) Uhl and a bunch of newbies, recruiting is not done, and we can't believe star rankings anyway.
E) But if we allow ourselves to believe past experiences and results...we COULD have the guys it takes to be a good team again.
We've got nothing that says we won't be, but there are things that we need to fill in some gaps to be as good as 2014/15. And we've got plenty of new bodies to pick from to find those things.
Now doesn't that make it all crystal clear?
