65 plays/game * 45% passing = 29 att/game
Guessing about 57% completion rate so overall 215/377
Guessing 7.1 yards/att * 377att = 2676 total yards
22 TDs
Cries of "QB DEGRESSION!!!" despite better qb rating and looking far better than the previous year.
Many of the numbers seem accurate ... however, I'd arguably lump Stanley among Iowa's better Ferentz era QBs. If you look at the progression of O'Keefe mentored QBs ... if all else remains equal, the QBs always improve. If you look at the guys surrounding Stanley ... the group is pretty "steady" compared to last year. The quality is comparable ... if not improved. Thus, assuming Stanley remains healthy, here's my stab at the numbers ....
Ferentz Era Os typically land around 66+ plays per game in "better offensive years." I anticipate that the '18 O will likely be an above-average O for the Hawks. Thus, I'd estimate around 68 plays/game.
The 45% passing sounds about right. In years when we're stronger running the ball ... that number usually drifts down closer to 40%. In years when we have a passer like Tate, the number can nearly hit 50%. Given that Stanley should be improved AND given that the RBs are still a bit on the young side - 45% passing strikes me to be in the correct ball-park.
Stanley had a lot of passes dropped ... but also there were timing issues last year too. There are a myriad of factors that impacted the completion percentage. Stanley was oft pressured ... that impacted the O by forcing more hurried throws. Iowa's early running downs rarely seemed to keep us ahead of the sticks ... so that emboldened opposing Ds to be more aggressive. Stanley was learning a new offensive system ... that impacted how quickly and consistently he'd execute. Brian was a new OC ... and it marked his first time calling games ... the learning curve there invariably impacted the situations his new QB was subjected to. Stanley was engaged in a protracted QB competition during the off-season ... that impacted how many snaps he received with the #1s. This too potentially impacted timing and chemistry with the receiving targets. Lastly, Copeland was a new WR coach for the Hawks ... he too was getting his feet wet learning how things would work within the program (and with his new set of players).
Given the above considerations, I think that puts Stanley's completion percentage of 55.8% clearly in focus. I don't think that we'll see a ridiculous jump in his percentage ... but I know that the objective is to get it over 60%. My guess is that it lands in the ball-park of 61%.
Stanley's yards per attempt was pretty low .... a measly 6.94 yards per attempt. The numbers were a little more characteristic of Greg Davis's O as compared to O'Keefe's O. Given that the new O is a variant of O'Keefe's O ... I'd attribute the lower YPA to it being a schematic "transition year." A more characteristic number should land closer to the ball-park of 7.5 YPA (in better years it's in the upper 7s or higher).
Going off of these numbers:
68 plays/game * 45% passing = 30.6 att/game
Guessing about 61% completion rate so overall 242/397 (assuming 13 games)
Guessing 7.5 yards/att * 397att = 2977 total yards
27 TDs (TD numbers perhaps not substantially higher because of more rushing TDs)
