Interested to see what an objective view of Garza and Ayo would show using just the stats available.
It appears the media is gravitating to Ayo's story simply because it is fresh and they need a storyline or some conflict to generate interest. It's not a false storyline, as Ayo is playing well and Illinois is on a roll winning 7 straight, and he's carried them in a few of those down the stretch. However, the hype may (or may not) be inflated just to suit their own needs.
Here's my data source:
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/2021.html#all_leaders
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/iowa/2021.html
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/illinois/2021.html
The stats I look at first for any players (Advanced Stats - attempts to capture full impact not just number of points or rebounds):
CONCLUSION:
To me the 3 best objective measures of a player's performance are Win Shares, Box Plus/Minus and PER because they all attempt to account for both offense and defense as well as normalizing the statistics to avoid bias due to other factors like pace/tempo, etc.
Focusing in on those 3, Garza ranks 2nd, 2nd and 1st in those measures while Ayo doesn't show up in the Top 10.
While Ayo should get credit for some late-game efforts in some of their wins, for the most part this is a media driven, emotion-based effort to pretend like they are equals.
It's not really that close.
That being said, if Iowa goes 0-2 this week and Illinois doesn't lose, look for some media members to start peddling Ayo as the leader. Why? It helps them to do so.
I'm ok if they said he is closing in on Garza, but when they try to compare the two without any use of available objective measures, it smacks of bias.
Just my 2 cents.
It appears the media is gravitating to Ayo's story simply because it is fresh and they need a storyline or some conflict to generate interest. It's not a false storyline, as Ayo is playing well and Illinois is on a roll winning 7 straight, and he's carried them in a few of those down the stretch. However, the hype may (or may not) be inflated just to suit their own needs.
Here's my data source:
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/seasons/2021.html#all_leaders
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/iowa/2021.html
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/illinois/2021.html
The stats I look at first for any players (Advanced Stats - attempts to capture full impact not just number of points or rebounds):
- Win Shares (OFF / DEF / TOT - an estimate of the number of win shares contributed by a player's offense and defense)
- GARZA: 4.3 / 1.0 / 5.3 (second on team is Joe W at 3.3 - 1st in NCAA in OFF, 2nd in TOT)
- AYO: 2.9 / 1.4 / 4.3 (second on team is Cockburn at 4.0)
- Box Plus/Minus (OFF / DEF / TOT - a box score estimate of the number of points contributed per 100 possessions above an average player on an average team)
- GARZA: 12.5 / 1.6 / 14.1 (second on team is Joe W at 9.8 - 1st in NCAA in OFF, 2nd in TOT - 13th highest total since 2010)
- AYO: 7.2 / 3.2 / 10.4 (second on team is Cockburn at 10.1)
- Player Efficiency Rating PER (An estimate of a players per minute impact on the game, including points, rebounds, turnovers, assists, blocks rebounds and fouls, adjusted for pace)
- GARZA: 36.9 (second on team is Keegan at 26.0 - 1st in NCAA - 3rd highest since 2009)
- AYO: 25.4 (Cockburn leads team at 31.8)
- Rebound %(OFF / DEF / TOT - an estimate of the % of available rebounds a player grabbed while on the floor)
- GARZA: 10.3 / 17. 9 / 14.3 (Nunge at 17.2 and Keegan at 15.8)
- AYO: 4.2 / 15.4 / 10.3 (Cockburn leads at 21.4)
- Assist % (An estimate of the % of teammate FG's a player assisted on while they were on the floor)
- GARZA: 13.3 (Bohannon at 24.5)
- AYO: 30.4 (Curbelo at 36.0)
- Points Produced Per Game (The number of points produced by a player per 100 possessions. A player produces points through made shots, assists, and offensive rebounds)
- GARZA: 21.4 (6th in NCAA)
- AYO: 21.5 (4th in NCAA)
- * Note that this statistic does not give a player 2 points for a made FG, as some of that credit goes to the assist or rebound that happened prior, thus the total is less than expected.
CONCLUSION:
To me the 3 best objective measures of a player's performance are Win Shares, Box Plus/Minus and PER because they all attempt to account for both offense and defense as well as normalizing the statistics to avoid bias due to other factors like pace/tempo, etc.
Focusing in on those 3, Garza ranks 2nd, 2nd and 1st in those measures while Ayo doesn't show up in the Top 10.
While Ayo should get credit for some late-game efforts in some of their wins, for the most part this is a media driven, emotion-based effort to pretend like they are equals.
It's not really that close.
That being said, if Iowa goes 0-2 this week and Illinois doesn't lose, look for some media members to start peddling Ayo as the leader. Why? It helps them to do so.
I'm ok if they said he is closing in on Garza, but when they try to compare the two without any use of available objective measures, it smacks of bias.
Just my 2 cents.
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