Senator Ted Cruz of Texas surged to a 10-point lead in a new poll released Saturday of likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa, signaling that his campaign is gathering momentum and suggesting that a long nominating fight is ahead.
Donald J. Trump, who continues to lead most national polls, was second in the Iowa poll, with 21 percent naming him as their first choice, compared with Mr. Cruz’s 31 percent.
Ben Carson, after leading an October survey by the same pollster, commissioned by The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics, tumbled to 13 percent, followed by Senator Marco Rubio of Florida at 10 percent.
The survey, by one of Iowa’s most respected pollsters, comes as Mr. Trump is increasingly hoping that a win in Iowa, whose caucuses are less than eight weeks away, will be a lightning strike on his way to the nomination.
“If we win Iowa, I think we run the table,” Mr. Trump said on Friday at a rally in Des Moines. He is far ahead in polls of the other early-voting states.
But Mr. Cruz’s sudden momentum in Iowa complicates Mr. Trump’s plan. It could set up a protracted primary between Mr. Cruz as the choice of far-right Republicans, Mr. Trump as an anti-establishment outsider and perhaps a third candidate representing the center-right of the party.
Mr. Cruz gained 21 percentage points in two months since the last Register poll. He has visited the state almost weekly, making the case that he is the answer to the right’s long search for a conservative with unwavering principles and deep resources. Mr. Cruz was the top choice in the poll of evangelical Christians (45 percent) and Tea Party conservatives (39 percent).
The poll provided a snapshot of how conservative Iowa’s likely Republican voters are. Nearly six in 10 say climate change is a hoax. More than half want mass deportations of illegal immigrants. Six in 10 would abolish the Internal Revenue Service.
With ample opportunities to see candidates up close, Iowans have distinct impressions. Mr. Cruz ranked highest on having the right temperament to be president and the right values to lead the nation. Mr. Trump, who draws the largest crowds of any candidate, nonetheless ranked behind Mr. Cruz, Mr. Carson and Mr. Rubio on the temperament question. He was seen as best able to solve illegal immigration, manage the economy and defeat Hillary Clinton in a general election.
The race also remains fluid. Two out of three voters say they could be persuaded to choose someone else. That is hopeful news for Jeb Bush, in fifth place with 6 percent, and three others at 3 percent: Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey.
Long locked in a mutual nonaggression pact, Mr. Cruz and Mr. Trump have teetered on the brink of hostilities in recent days.
After studiously avoiding any public attacks on Mr. Trump for fear of becoming a target of his derision, Mr. Cruz privately told donors on Wednesday that Mr. Trump had questionable judgment, according to a recording of his remarks. The comments came two days after Mr. Trump proposed barring Muslims from entering the United States as a way to combat terrorism; Mr. Cruz said he disagreed but did not criticize Mr. Trump as others have.
In a series of Twitter posts after his “judgment” comments became public, Mr. Cruz tried to play down any rift, while Mr. Trump moved toward escalation.
Mr. Cruz wrote: “The Establishment’s only hope: Trump & me in a cage match. Sorry to disappoint — @realDonaldTrump is terrific.”
Mr. Trump struck a different tone. “Looks like @tedcruz is getting ready to attack,” he wrote. “I am leading by so much he must. I hope so, he will fall like all others. Will be easy!”
And in a speech in Des Moines on Friday, Mr. Trump criticized Mr. Cruz’s opposition to federal support for ethanol, an important state industry, and in a more audacious attack, he questioned Mr. Cruz’s faith. “And by the way, I do like Ted Cruz,” he said, “but not a lot of evangelicals come out of Cuba.”
Mr. Cruz, whose father emigrated from Cuba and is a fiery evangelical pastor, has succeeded more than any other candidate in enlisting conservative Christian support in Iowa. On Thursday, he won the endorsement of Bob Vander Plaats, a leader of the Christian right in Iowa.
Despite Mr. Trump’s repeated assertions that he is “doing really well with the evangelicals,” his attack on Mr. Cruz’s faith risks pushing away that large group of politically active voters, who in the past two Republican caucuses played a decisive role in choosing the winner, Mike Huckabee in 2008 and Rick Santorum in 2012.
Mr. Trump sought on Friday to undermine the credibility of The Register poll even before it appeared, singling out the newspaper, the most influential in Iowa, during a customary interlude in which he attacks the news media.
“I’ll tell you, you have one of the most dishonest right here in your backyard: The Des Moines Register is the worst,” he said to cheers and applause. “Some reporter named Jacobs, she is the worst,” he said, referring to The Register’s lead political reporter, Jennifer Jacobs.
He accused the paper’s polling, which has consistently been among the most accurate in surveying Iowa voters, of being biased against him.
Mr. Trump has railed against The Register since the paper’s editorial board called on him to quit the race in July because “he has polluted the political waters.” The editorial board, which endorsed Mitt Romney before the 2012 caucuses, has not yet announced its preference for 2016. On Friday, Mr. Trump promised to campaign aggressively in Iowa as the Feb. 1 caucuses approach. “If I win Iowa, I think it’s over,” he repeated.
Mr. Trump’s fear seems to be that if no candidate enters the Republican convention in July with enough delegates to win, it would trigger a stop-Trump movement with lower-performing candidates throwing their support to one of his competitors.
He warned Friday of “bloodsucker politicians” controlling the convention and also repeated his threat to run as an independent. “You’ll know in a month or two whether the establishment is treating me favorably,” he said.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/13/u...s-past-donald-trump-to-lead-in-iowa-poll.html
Donald J. Trump, who continues to lead most national polls, was second in the Iowa poll, with 21 percent naming him as their first choice, compared with Mr. Cruz’s 31 percent.
Ben Carson, after leading an October survey by the same pollster, commissioned by The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics, tumbled to 13 percent, followed by Senator Marco Rubio of Florida at 10 percent.
The survey, by one of Iowa’s most respected pollsters, comes as Mr. Trump is increasingly hoping that a win in Iowa, whose caucuses are less than eight weeks away, will be a lightning strike on his way to the nomination.
“If we win Iowa, I think we run the table,” Mr. Trump said on Friday at a rally in Des Moines. He is far ahead in polls of the other early-voting states.
But Mr. Cruz’s sudden momentum in Iowa complicates Mr. Trump’s plan. It could set up a protracted primary between Mr. Cruz as the choice of far-right Republicans, Mr. Trump as an anti-establishment outsider and perhaps a third candidate representing the center-right of the party.
Mr. Cruz gained 21 percentage points in two months since the last Register poll. He has visited the state almost weekly, making the case that he is the answer to the right’s long search for a conservative with unwavering principles and deep resources. Mr. Cruz was the top choice in the poll of evangelical Christians (45 percent) and Tea Party conservatives (39 percent).
The poll provided a snapshot of how conservative Iowa’s likely Republican voters are. Nearly six in 10 say climate change is a hoax. More than half want mass deportations of illegal immigrants. Six in 10 would abolish the Internal Revenue Service.
With ample opportunities to see candidates up close, Iowans have distinct impressions. Mr. Cruz ranked highest on having the right temperament to be president and the right values to lead the nation. Mr. Trump, who draws the largest crowds of any candidate, nonetheless ranked behind Mr. Cruz, Mr. Carson and Mr. Rubio on the temperament question. He was seen as best able to solve illegal immigration, manage the economy and defeat Hillary Clinton in a general election.
The race also remains fluid. Two out of three voters say they could be persuaded to choose someone else. That is hopeful news for Jeb Bush, in fifth place with 6 percent, and three others at 3 percent: Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey.
Long locked in a mutual nonaggression pact, Mr. Cruz and Mr. Trump have teetered on the brink of hostilities in recent days.
After studiously avoiding any public attacks on Mr. Trump for fear of becoming a target of his derision, Mr. Cruz privately told donors on Wednesday that Mr. Trump had questionable judgment, according to a recording of his remarks. The comments came two days after Mr. Trump proposed barring Muslims from entering the United States as a way to combat terrorism; Mr. Cruz said he disagreed but did not criticize Mr. Trump as others have.
In a series of Twitter posts after his “judgment” comments became public, Mr. Cruz tried to play down any rift, while Mr. Trump moved toward escalation.
Mr. Cruz wrote: “The Establishment’s only hope: Trump & me in a cage match. Sorry to disappoint — @realDonaldTrump is terrific.”
Mr. Trump struck a different tone. “Looks like @tedcruz is getting ready to attack,” he wrote. “I am leading by so much he must. I hope so, he will fall like all others. Will be easy!”
And in a speech in Des Moines on Friday, Mr. Trump criticized Mr. Cruz’s opposition to federal support for ethanol, an important state industry, and in a more audacious attack, he questioned Mr. Cruz’s faith. “And by the way, I do like Ted Cruz,” he said, “but not a lot of evangelicals come out of Cuba.”
Mr. Cruz, whose father emigrated from Cuba and is a fiery evangelical pastor, has succeeded more than any other candidate in enlisting conservative Christian support in Iowa. On Thursday, he won the endorsement of Bob Vander Plaats, a leader of the Christian right in Iowa.
Despite Mr. Trump’s repeated assertions that he is “doing really well with the evangelicals,” his attack on Mr. Cruz’s faith risks pushing away that large group of politically active voters, who in the past two Republican caucuses played a decisive role in choosing the winner, Mike Huckabee in 2008 and Rick Santorum in 2012.
Mr. Trump sought on Friday to undermine the credibility of The Register poll even before it appeared, singling out the newspaper, the most influential in Iowa, during a customary interlude in which he attacks the news media.
“I’ll tell you, you have one of the most dishonest right here in your backyard: The Des Moines Register is the worst,” he said to cheers and applause. “Some reporter named Jacobs, she is the worst,” he said, referring to The Register’s lead political reporter, Jennifer Jacobs.
He accused the paper’s polling, which has consistently been among the most accurate in surveying Iowa voters, of being biased against him.
Mr. Trump has railed against The Register since the paper’s editorial board called on him to quit the race in July because “he has polluted the political waters.” The editorial board, which endorsed Mitt Romney before the 2012 caucuses, has not yet announced its preference for 2016. On Friday, Mr. Trump promised to campaign aggressively in Iowa as the Feb. 1 caucuses approach. “If I win Iowa, I think it’s over,” he repeated.
Mr. Trump’s fear seems to be that if no candidate enters the Republican convention in July with enough delegates to win, it would trigger a stop-Trump movement with lower-performing candidates throwing their support to one of his competitors.
He warned Friday of “bloodsucker politicians” controlling the convention and also repeated his threat to run as an independent. “You’ll know in a month or two whether the establishment is treating me favorably,” he said.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/13/u...s-past-donald-trump-to-lead-in-iowa-poll.html
