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Thanks a lot Covid Kim

In hindsight, this is true. But at the time the pandemic first broke out, we didn’t know enough about the virus and erring on the side of caution was the best approach. However, once we learned a lot more about COVID-19, policies should have evolved with the science. Instead, it was more partisan bickering as usual.

The American Academy of Pediatrics very early said closing schools would do more damage than leaving them open. We knew children were not particularly at risk, and that schools were unlikely to contribute to community spread. The scolds shouted them down quickly.

Much of even the initial reaction was irrational virtue signaling.
 
This part is true. Which is why it was such a bad decision to close schools and businesses. No real benefit, but significant damage economically and socially.

I personally don't have a problem with being cautious. It wasn't a binary decision of "normal" or "not normal". There were a lot of factors coming into play for everyone. There was no way that people were going to live a normal life with this virus. The hospitals were overflowing. People lost family and friends (I did). As much as some of you want to imply "if we had done nothing, everything would have been fine", that's not the case. People were not going to venture out of they houses. People were not wanting to go into a work environment. Business owners didn't want their employees to be at risk. There was no doubt the virus was going to change everyone's life and it did. This was a no win situation, why, because it was a pandemic. Keep in mind that it was the pandemic that caused the damage economically and socially. You might not like some of the decisions that were made, but even if some of those weren't made, there still would be the damage, or possibly more damage. If people don't feel safe, they're going to do less. Some of you wanted schools opened. I have a friend who's a teacher and what they say was, there were many older teachers that were not going to risk their lives by going back into the classroom (for those high paying jobs). So you can win the battle of in class teaching, but you might lose the war because you have no teachers. That's just one example.

As I said, this wasn't a binary decision, there were a lot of factors and so anyone claiming we should have just "lived" with the virus, isn't looking at the big picture.
 
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^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^This is the correct answer.

And those congratulating Kimberly should also express their sympathies to the families of nearly 10,000, and likely more, dead Iowans.

IDPH data was never accurate throughout the entire time.
I thought your boy Rob Sand audited the numbers and said considering the situation they were accurate?

 
O look a guy who is still trying to play team politics with the pandemic. Go Team Blue!!!
Teams where the captains played politics had more needless deaths. Refusal to mask up, follow common sense mitigation measures, and the captains who minimized the value of vaccines killed their own players, Coff.
 
The American Academy of Pediatrics very early said closing schools would do more damage than leaving them open. We knew children were not particularly at risk, and that schools were unlikely to contribute to community spread. The scolds shouted them down quickly.

Much of even the initial reaction was irrational virtue signaling.

Art, I know that you and your family have a close relationship with kids with needs, and so I understand how you're looking out for the kids. And I don't want to get into this again, but it was more than just about the kids. My friend who is a teacher works in a area where there's multiple generations of family. You can't put a kid in a position to possibly pass the virus on the a parent or grandparent. You want to talk about damage to a kid, how damage will they be if they feel they killed a family member. I sorry, that's just not right. To this day, there are still kids wearing masks in my friends classrooms because the kids are concerned.

This was a pandemic, everyone was impacted.
 
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Art, I know that you and your family have a close relationship with kids with needs, and so I understand how you're looking out for the kids. And I don't want to get into this again, but it was more than just about the kids. My friend who is a teacher works in a area where there's multiple generations of family. You can't put a kid in a position to possibly pass the virus on the a parent or grandparent. You want to talk about damage to a kid, how damage will they be if they feel they killed a family member. I sorry, that's just not right. To this day, there are still kids wearing masks in my friends classrooms because the kids are concerned.

This was a pandemic, everyone was impacted.

Perhaps, and I’m just spitballing here, we should have advised old people to avoid contact with young children, instead of implementing the devastating measures we took, the results of which will haunt us for decades.

In fact, our refusal to acknowledge the realities of who is most at risk is probably what kept us from minimizing deaths. It’s why right now, as I sit waiting for a flight, I’m shaking my head at a family with two young children masked while mom and grandma are unmasked. Which is jaw droppingly stupid.

Pediatricians said we should not close schools. That should count for something.
 
I thought your boy Rob Sand audited the numbers and said considering the situation they were accurate?

You don't understand politics, do you.

It's an election year and the Iowa GOP is running someone against Sand. Here in Mississippi North, he's not going to rile any more feathers and risk pissing off Indees.

I imagine he'll go back to pointing out Reynold's corruption once he gets reelected... if he does.
 
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Art, I know that you and your family have a close relationship with kids with needs, and so I understand how you're looking out for the kids. And I don't want to get into this again, but it was more than just about the kids. My friend who is a teacher works in a area where there's multiple generations of family. You can't put a kid in a position to possibly pass the virus on the a parent or grandparent. You want to talk about damage to a kid, how damage will they be if they feel they killed a family member. I sorry, that's just not right. To this day, there are still kids wearing masks in my friends classrooms because the kids are concerned.

This was a pandemic, everyone was impacted.
The reason kids are still wearing masks is because they've been led to believe that everybody will die if they take them off and, at my daughter's school at least, they are ostracized by the maskhole kids if they go without.
 
You don't understand politics, do you.

It's an election year and the Iowa GOP is running someone against Sand. Here in Mississippi North, he's not going to rile any more feathers and risk pissing off Indees.

I imagine he'll go back to pointing out Reynold's corruption once he gets reelected... if he does.
Gotcha.

Or maybe the numbers were accurate.
 
You don't understand politics, do you.

It's an election year and the Iowa GOP is running someone against Sand. Here in Mississippi North, he's not going to rile any more feathers and risk pissing off Indees.

I imagine he'll go back to pointing out Reynold's corruption once he gets reelected... if he does.
Sounds like complete conjecture, any links to Rob Sand intentionally letting Kimmy go because of election year.?
 
Teams where the captains played politics had more needless deaths. Refusal to mask up, follow common sense mitigation measures, and the captains who minimized the value of vaccines killed their own players, Coff.
If you can't make up your mind on your own to your SPECIFIC situation, old, fat, etc. and react accordingly, then you deserve whatever you get. You are responsible for your health, not some jackass Politician.
 
Numerous times, Kimberly had to explain away the "glitches".

Every single time medical facilities had to correct the IDPH, Kelly Garcia would be at the podium with an excuse. EVERY SINGLE TIME.
Yeah it was a crazy situation. Fluid. The state hid 4,100 deaths.

 
The reason kids are still wearing masks is because they've been led to believe that everybody will die if they take them off and, at my daughter's school at least, they are ostracized by the maskhole kids if they go without.

Just FYI, making extreme statements just disqualifies what you say.
 
Perhaps, and I’m just spitballing here, we should have advised old people to avoid contact with young children, instead of implementing the devastating measures we took, the results of which will haunt us for decades.

In fact, our refusal to acknowledge the realities of who is most at risk is probably what kept us from minimizing deaths. It’s why right now, as I sit waiting for a flight, I’m shaking my head at a family with two young children masked while mom and grandma are unmasked. Which is jaw droppingly stupid.

Pediatricians said we should not close schools. That should count for something.

In the beginning we didn't know much of anything and that was the whole world. There are many things that will impact us for years. Some impact good and some bad. It's what happens when something like this happens.

I'll never tell someone they're stupid for trying to protect their kids. Luckily my kids are old enough to be vaccinated so it doesn't impact me. You, as a parent of a kid with needs, should fully understand how difficult it is to have a child with needs and understand that people are going to do whatever is needed for their kids, just like how you've fought for having in-person school. I'm sure if someone watched your interaction with your child they might come away with not understanding what you're doing. That doesn't mean you're doing something wrong, it could be they don't understand your situation. Just like you might not fully understand the family in the airport. So calling something "jaw dropping stupid" might be the wrong way to look at that situation.
 
The reason kids are still wearing masks is because they've been led to believe that everybody will die if they take them off and, at my daughter's school at least, they are ostracized by the maskhole kids if they go without.
Kids are insecure, acne, scars. All covered up by a mask.
 
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No worries, JP. The GOP has no designs on banning cherry-picking.

I'll run the maths for you here.
Let me know where you cannot keep up.

Total deaths:

NY:68714
Iowa: 9510

Raw deaths per 1M-
NY: 3532
Iowa: 3014

NY looks LOTS worse than Iowa, right?

But look at the March-June data.

If you review the running Case Fatality Rates for the first months of the pandemic, they were well north of 5%.

March: 8.2%
April: 7%
May: 5.3%
June: 2.84%


(those are the CFRs for JUST the month period, using a 7-day crude lag for CFR, which means using April 1-30 for deaths and March 24-April 23 for leading cases for that month)

Every month since June 30, 2020, CFR monthly numbers dropped to mostly between 1% and 2%. Why? Because doctors figured out how to treat patients, and dexamethasone became Standard Of Care treatment for severe cases, which was not known or available during the first 3 months.

So, how do we correct for that, since NY was hit first and hit hard? Adjust their deaths from March-June using that 1-1.5% CFR that became the norm for when others got hit. Early CFRs were easily 4x to 5x worse for NY and others "first in line".

So, how many deaths did NY and Iowa have from March to June 30?

NY: 32152
Iowa: 715

Let's use the 4x ratio, so if they HAD dexamethasone for those first patients, their CFRs would have been 1.5% or so, meaning 3/4ths of those patients would have lived.

Adjusted deaths for Iowa and NY during that period:
(these are 1/4th of actual, based on the CFRs being inflated about 4x-5x; I used 4x)
NY: 8038
Iowa: 179

So, now you can take their total deaths counts, subtract the March-June 30th numbers off, and add back on that 25% estimator that uses a 1.5% CFR.

New adjusted total deaths numbers
NY: 44600
Iowa: 8973

Now, your deaths per 1M are
NY: 2292
Iowa: 2844

When we correct for early CFRs, particularly for states hit very hard early on, we can see that they actually fared a lot better than the crude data show you. This would be the "least biased" comparison you can make, because CFRs are nominally similar across all the time-frames.

The DanGoodspeed charts I've linked before ignored those early 3 months, which is really not a bad metric because CFRs AFTER that date are nominally consistent; they do, however, fail to make the adjustments above for the first 3 months, which is how I would recreate those plots, for every state.

You are Welcome.

P.S. You can take an even more granular approach, by separating out each monthly CFR and correcting those 4 months from March-June with the close CFR numbers, and you'll get an even better "least biased" correction. Feel free to do so. I used numbers off WorldOMeters for this.
 
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The reason kids are still wearing masks is because they've been led to believe that everybody will die if they take them off and, at my daughter's school at least, they are ostracized by the maskhole kids if they go without.
Do you live in Iowa? I can most definitely see this in some places.
 
And in case anyone was wondering, here's the running CFR numbers, by month, since March 2020.

2020
March 8.2%
April 7%
May 5.33%
June 2.84%
July 1.53%
August 1.90%
Sept 1.88%
Oct 1.45%
Nov 1.13%
Dec 1.34%

2021
Jan 1.52%
Feb 2.16%
Mar 1.94%
April 1.09%
May 1.48%
June 2.38%
July 1.10%
Aug 0.95%
Sept 1.30%
Oct 1.66%
Nov 1.29%
Dec 0.94%

2022
Jan 0.33%
Feb 0.94%
Mar 2.36%
 
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And in case anyone was wondering, here's the running CFR numbers, by month, since March 2020.

2020
March 8.2%
April 7%
May 5.33%
June 2.84%
July 1.53%
August 1.90%
Sept 1.88%
Oct 1.45%
Nov 1.13%
Dec 1.34%

2021
Jan 1.52%
Feb 2.16%
Mar 1.94%
April 1.09%
May 1.48%
June 2.38%
July 1.10%
Aug 0.95%
Sept 1.30%
Oct 1.66%
Nov 1.29%
Dec 0.94%

2022
Jan 0.33%
Feb 0.94%
Mar 2.36%
I am not wondering.
 
If you disagree with my analysis and methods, then point out specifics that you think are "incorrect". Or, provide you own option to standardize the data.

Otherwise, you're simply trolling here, and look rather silly since it appears you don't understand what was posted.
 
If you disagree with my analysis and methods, then point out specifics that you think are "incorrect". Or, provide you own option to standardize the data.

Otherwise, you're simply trolling here, and look rather silly since it appears you don't understand what was posted.
You arbitrarily removed deaths from New York. Tests weren’t as common that early in the pandemic, it has little to anything to do with treatment.
 
No. It's quite sound.

I asked you to address it, if you disagree.
I'm not hearing anything, because I don't think you even understand what was posted.
JFC. I already addressed it. I’ll repeat it for you: your reduction in cfr doesn’t make sense because testing wasn’t as widespread in the early days of the pandemic. There’s no way in hell that our treatment adjustments had as much of an impact on curbing fatalities as you carelessly used in your analysis. It’s beyond absurd.
 
In the beginning we didn't know much of anything and that was the whole world. There are many things that will impact us for years. Some impact good and some bad. It's what happens when something like this happens.

I'll never tell someone they're stupid for trying to protect their kids. Luckily my kids are old enough to be vaccinated so it doesn't impact me. You, as a parent of a kid with needs, should fully understand how difficult it is to have a child with needs and understand that people are going to do whatever is needed for their kids, just like how you've fought for having in-person school. I'm sure if someone watched your interaction with your child they might come away with not understanding what you're doing. That doesn't mean you're doing something wrong, it could be they don't understand your situation. Just like you might not fully understand the family in the airport. So calling something "jaw dropping stupid" might be the wrong way to look at that situation.

Sorry, but there is no scenario that can be painted in which the children (old enough to be vaccinated) with unmasked Mom and Grandma is not stupid. Grandma has about a 500x greater chance of death from COVID than the kiddos, and if those children are somehow particularly at risk for some specific reason, then the whole family should be masked. And perhaps they shouldn’t be vacationing in Aruba.

But back to closing schools, we actually knew quite a bit very early, but acted as if we did not. We knew it affected the elderly far, far more than children. We knew it didn’t spread through surface contact. We knew it didn’t spread outdoors. But we closed schools, we forced kids to wear masks for a year longer than adults, we clutched our pearls when people went to the beach, and we engaged in sanitation theatre to make it look like we were doing something. These measures, I am convinced, killed more people than they saved. As I said in spring of 2020, if you implement irrational policies, you will anger people and cause them to lose faith in the system until they refuse to take even reasonable precautions - like getting vaccinated.
 
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Nothing I typed is any more extreme than what children, including my daughter, have been told by authority figures during the last two years, which disqualifies your response.

If you’re comparing your statement to statements of others, that you view as extreme and crazy, then you too are extreme and crazy.
 
Sorry, but there is no scenario that can be painted in which the children (old enough to be vaccinated) with unmasked Mom and Grandma is not stupid. Grandma has about a 500x greater chance of death from COVID than the kiddos, and if those children are somehow particularly at risk for some specific reason, then the whole family should be masked. And perhaps they shouldn’t be vacationing in Aruba.

But back to closing schools, we actually knew quite a bit very early, but acted as if we did not. We knew it affected the elderly far, far more than children. We knew it didn’t spread through surface contact. We knew it didn’t spread outdoors. But we closed schools, we forced kids to wear masks for a year longer than adults, we clutched our pearls when people went to the beach, and we engaged in sanitation theatre to make it look like we were doing something. These measures, I am convinced, killed more people than they saved. As I said in spring of 2020, if you implement irrational policies, you will anger people and cause them to lose faith in the system until they refuse to take even reasonable precautions - like getting vaccinated.

I’m not sure why you choose to be so negative about people choosing to make their own decision. Just because you’re mad about how schools were handled, that doesn’t justify attacking what others do. We’re never going to agree on schools going remote so I won’t even get into that argument. In general, I feel there were more things done right than wrong.
 
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I’m not sure why you choose to be so negative about people choosing to make their own decision. Just because you’re mad about how schools were handled, that doesn’t justify attacking what others do. We’re never going to agree on schools going remote so I won’t even get into that argument. In general, I feel there were more things done right than wrong.
Now you want people to be able to make their own decisions?
That's all many of us ever wanted. But, that choice was taken away by mandates and restrictions that are now known to have been the wrong decision. Which people were saying at the time, but were shouted down.
 
Now you want people to be able to make their own decisions?
That's all many of us ever wanted. But, that choice was taken away by mandates and restrictions that are now known to have been the wrong decision. Which people were saying at the time, but were shouted down.

It was the right decision at the time. Just because you didn’t like it doesn’t make it wrong.
 
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