How good is either team? The best opponent #9 Iowa has played is #22 Iowa State.
How many have Michigan State over Michigan, who is unranked Wisconsin's best opponent to date?
Can Iowa stop the Wisconsin rushing attack?
They couldn't in 2019, and lost by two points.
But, neither team is really their 2019 selfs. Both teams opened 2020 with new QBs at the helm. Iowa opened 0-2 and Wisconsin 2-0.
Last year, we can only say, Iowa finally won in the series at home (2008), since that miserable loss in 2010 at Kinnick Stadium, which in many ways shaped a decade of Iowa football.
Wisconsin would start the quest for seven trips to Indianapolis the next year, as Nebraska arrived. By 2014, the series returned to an annual event, with both back in the same division, as it should be played.
Iowa's lone recent win in Madison was 2015. We know where that lead Iowa to close out season.
This may be a must win for a return trip to Indianapolis. It is certainly the case for Wisconsin, who last went in 2019.
Iowa and Minnesota enter the last weekend at 3-1 on top of the B1G West standings, but Wisconsin controls their one destiny in the West, if they keep winning.
They have a nice three game win streak, since that 1-3 start on the season.
As Scott Dochterman and Jesse Temple pointed out in The Athletic this week.
"One big difference between the two teams offensively is that Iowa (other than the Purdue game) has managed to take care of the ball. How does this Iowa offense generate much against Wisconsin’s defense on the ground and through the air?"
Dochterman: That’s a great question. I don’t see Iowa mounting many (any?) drives of 70-plus yards barring an explosive play. The Hawkeyes are capable of breaking off a run or a big pass, but those opportunities will be rare. Everyone at Fort Kinnick is aware of Wisconsin’s defensive prowess.
But that’s where Iowa’s defense and special teams come in. Punter Tory Taylor has been a huge weapon for both the defense and offense. Taylor leads the Big Ten with 43 punts, and he averages 46.2 yards per punt. But more impressive than his average (which is great) is Taylor has parked 21 inside the 20-yard line. In Iowa’s two biggest games, Taylor was a clear difference-maker. In Iowa’s 23-20 win against Penn State, six of Taylor’s nine punts landed inside the 12-yard line, including the 1, 2, 3, 8 (twice), and the 12. At Iowa State, Taylor averaged 51.1 yards on eight punts, landing five of them inside the 20 (6. 9, 10, 13, 20).
Can Iowa make it three's the charm in Madison?
This is OC Brian Ferentz's third trip, after the awful 38-14 loss in 2017 and the 24-22 loss in 2019, which included a failed two point conversion.
Is it ironic, Iowa went for a 2 point conversion last year, up 12-0 in the third quarter?
OC Brian Ferentz said during the bye week that against Purdue, he looked back to a similar situation against Penn State, down 10 points in the second half. Why?
Something tells me Iowa plans to play a little differently this week in Madison. This isn't the first time Iowa has had two weeks to prepare for a Badgers game. Iowa isn't coming off a 55-24 win over Ohio State, like 2017 or a 23-20 win over Penn State, like Homecoming with Purdue, in their last game.
I do like what Scott Dochterman brings up this week.
"The real offensive question for me is can Iowa squeeze enough out of its running game to provide some balance and move the ball when required in short-yardage situations? Or, can Iowa fake it enough to make a few play-action passes work, like it did when it faced Mississippi State’s superior defense in the 2019 Outback Bowl. That’s going to be a real test, especially if Iowa picks up a few possessions at midfield."
Temple wrote, "I’m just not sure how dependable Wisconsin’s offense is, particularly if Iowa — which ranks No. 7 nationally in run defense — is able to negate the Badgers’ ground game. For that reason, I think Iowa squeaks out a low-scoring, one-possession win to put itself in position to win the West over the last four weeks of the regular season. What’s your take on this one?"
- Iowa must win the turnovers, and force either fumbles (2 last week by WI RBs) or Mertz interceptions, which seems more likely needed
- Phil Parker preaches 25+ yard explosive plays (no more than two) - two scoring drives around 13 points [I am taking 10 for Wisconsin]
- Chuck Long talked about explosive plays, like Greg Davis in past, 12+ yards rushing, 20+ yards receiving
- Against Mississippi State, Iowa didn't have any explosive run plays. In 2019, Tyler Goodson (21) and Toren Young (12) did, but it wasn't enough, with the Badgers rushing for 300 yards on 6.5 per carry
- Field position, like the Iowa State game, as Dochterman pointed out
- Getting off to a good start, better than Iowa State game?
- We don't need the bad snap on any plays, like the FG at ISU, that felt like a turnover, field position wise.
Purdue, then Northwestern clearly have found ways make life miserable for the Hawkeyes. Wisconsin was predicted by Phil Steele to win the B1G West in 2021.
It still may come down to Minnesota at Iowa in a couple weeks, but we would all feel better after that ugly Homecoming loss to pull one out here in Madison.
Kirk Ferentz has been a part of nine Iowa wins in 14 games played in Madison, first as an assistant and now as a head coach. On Iowa, 20 to 10 sounds about right on Saturday in Madison.
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