The B1G west ... who blinks?

[ghostOfHomer777]

Northwestern, Iowa, Purdue, and Wisconsin are each sitting at 1-loss.

Wisconsin owns the head-to-head over Iowa. Northwestern owns the head-to-head over Purdue.

Iowa has the best D of the four, on paper. Purdue and Northwestern are pretty good at defending the run ... Wisconsin has had issues in that area this year. Wisconsin has been decent defending the pass ... Purdue and Northwestern have had issues in that area this year. Iowa's D seems the most well-rounded ... but given the youth of the corners ... it would seem that part of Iowa's statistical success against the pass has been largely attributable to the fact that we have yet to face really good passing attacks.

If we're talking about momentum of the teams through the season ... both Iowa and Purdue appear to be surging. Wisconsin has been solid ... largely based on the strength of their rushing attack and the quality of their scoring D. Of the 4 teams, Northwestern definitely appears the most vulnerable. The Wildcats had to scratch out victories over 2 of the B1G cellar dwellers ... that doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. Of course, they also played Michigan really close AND they beat MSU ... so who is the REAL Northwestern squad? It strikes me that Pat's squad is a lot like how the Hawks traditionally operate ... bend-but-not-break ... and you try to limit possessions by controlling the ball as much as possible. Consequently, that gives an appearance of playing to the level of your competition.

Here are the remaining games:

Iowa: @Purdue and Northwestern
Purdue: Iowa and Wisconsin
Northwestern: Wisconsin and @Iowa
Wisconsin: @Northwestern and @Purdue

Looking at the schedules ... Purdue has the advantage of having both remaining head-to-heads at home. In contrast, Wisconsin also has both head-to-heads away from home. As remaining B1G schedules go ... Iowa and Wisconsin probably have the toughest slates ... given that they both have to take on PSU at Happy Valley.

Wild west, I'd say!

 

[anon_i8nzeu2gbf0ba]

Great post, OP. It will be wild indeed. But the good news is that "all" Iowa has to do is stay focused and win out. Everything else will take care of itself. But for fans, what a second half of the season this is shaping up to be.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

I omitted saying that Purdue and Wisconsin clearly has the best Os of the 4 teams. Iowa and Purdue arguably have the best balance on O. Northwestern is a bit 1-dimensional ... leaning heavily upon the pass. Wisconsin is a bit 1-dimensional ... leaning heavily upon the run.

 

[mrF6n6]

it is the Wild West... for sure...
there's a big game this weekend between Wisconsin and Northwestern...
its gonna take a miracle for Northwestern to beat Wisconsin, imo.

Iowa plays at Penn State
and
Purdue plays at Michigan State

whats interesting is...
so far this year... in the Big Ten.... Road teams have won 17 of 31 games.

Home teams 14-17
Road teams 17-14

Big Ten West Home Team vs Big Ten West Road team :
4-5

the stadium doesn't win the game... the players on the field do.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Great post, OP. It will be wild indeed. But the good news is that "all" Iowa has to do is stay focused and win out. Everything else will take care of itself. But for fans, what a second half of the season this is shaping up to be.

I'd definitely agree that given how things are shaking out ... I'd definitely say that all of Iowa's remaining games are "winnable." They will pose some stiff challenges ... but winnable nonetheless.

 

[markfromj]

But the good news is that "all" Iowa has to do is stay focused and win out. Everything else will take care of itself

Meaningless.

 

[anon_i8nzeu2gbf0ba]

Good points about the home and road records, and good news for Iowa the next two weeks @ PSU and Purdue.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

it is the Wild West... for sure...
there's a big game this weekend between Wisconsin and Northwestern...
its gonna take a miracle for Northwestern to beat Wisconsin, imo.

Iowa plays at Penn State
and
Purdue plays at Michigan State

whats interesting is...
so far this year... in the Big Ten.... Road teams have won 17 of 31 games.

Home teams 14-17
Road teams 17-14

Big Ten West Home Team vs Big Ten West Road team :
4-5

the stadium doesn't win the game... the players on the field do.

Yeah ... for teams that "know each other" ... there really doesn't seem to be such thing as a home-field advantage. That said ... of the teams in the West ... Wisconsin probably owns the least vulnerable home-field advantage. Thus, that said, all of their "biggest" games to finish out the season are away from home.

 

[GetOnTheLine]

Basically, I think it will come down to the Iowa and Wisconsin games at PSU. If Iowa wins and Wisco loses, we'll be in the B10 championship. Any other situation, it will be Wisco in the B10 championship.

 

[hawksense]

I'd definitely agree that given how things are shaking out ... I'd definitely say that all of Iowa's remaining games are "winnable." They will pose some stiff challenges ... but winnable nonetheless.

The remaining games are also "losable".

I like the mindset of the team, so I don't think they'll be overlooking anyone. And, I like the mix of veteran leadership and developing talent. Positions of concern at the start will be tested, certainly. I like how they've handled things.

 

[Harbinger273]

I hope Iowa doesn't blink. Let's go up to Penn State and get the win. They are vulnerable and lost to MSU at home. On top of this we have a history of going up there and winning. Let's revisit the past and get a huge victory at Beaver Stadium. Then get right back up for a tough Purdue team. The rest of the schedule is not easy. NW poses a tough challenge as well.

 

[CUHawkeye91]

I'd rank the four teams in terms of who is playing the best football right now like this:

Iowa
Purdue
Wisky
Northwestern

Northwestern could easily be 1-4 in conference instead of 4-1. Given their weaknesses on both sides of the ball, I think their luck runs out and they fade after losing to Wisky. Purdue has a pretty tough slate remaining starting next week with what I assume will be a very PO'ed MSU team. Let's see how PU handles the big win against OSU. Iowa didn't handle their big win very well last year.

Iowa seems to have gotten better every week (I'll give the offense a pass for yesterday given the weather). If they continue to do so, they can run the table and the big hurdle is next week. The key is going to be the defense. Usually, defense travels well.

For Wisky, it comes down to Hornibrook. He doesn't have to win games, but he can lose them if he plays poorly. I hope he has a couple more 'turd' games in him this year.

I still think the west comes down to Iowa and Wisky - the games these teams play against PSU will likely tell the tale.

 

[ROCKY MOUNTAIN HAWK]

Basically, I think it will come down to the Iowa and Wisconsin games at PSU. If Iowa wins and Wisco loses, we'll be in the B10 championship. Any other situation, it will be Wisco in the B10 championship.

I kind of think this as well.

This race will really sort itself out after Saturday.

 

[Hans81]

It's just funny that Nebraska isn't one of the teams involved in fighting for the West division title.

 

[Auger]

I think they all blink at least one more time and Wisconsin wins the West with 2 conference losses. Iowa has three major hurdles left and history doesn't favor us when we face three teams as solid as Penn St, Purdue and Northwestern. All three are playing top 25 football right now.

 

[NevadaHawk]

NW barely got by Rutgers. I don't know all the particulars of that game but the final score was 18-15. Perhaps weather was a factor but you would think NW would have won by more than that.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

I'd rank the four teams in terms of who is playing the best football right now like this:

Iowa
Purdue
Wisky
Northwestern

Northwestern could easily be 1-4 in conference instead of 4-1. Given their weaknesses on both sides of the ball, I think their luck runs out and they fade after losing to Wisky. Purdue has a pretty tough slate remaining starting next week with what I assume will be a very PO'ed MSU team. Let's see how PU handles the big win against OSU. Iowa didn't handle their big win very well last year.

Iowa seems to have gotten better every week (I'll give the offense a pass for yesterday given the weather). If they continue to do so, they can run the table and the big hurdle is next week. The key is going to be the defense. Usually, defense travels well.

For Wisky, it comes down to Hornibrook. He doesn't have to win games, but he can lose them if he plays poorly. I hope he has a couple more 'turd' games in him this year.

I still think the west comes down to Iowa and Wisky - the games these teams play against PSU will likely tell the tale.

Michigan State appears to have a strong run D ... however, their passing O has been limited by injuries at WR. In fact, I believe that they just lost their top WR, Felton Davis, to a blown Achilles. Their passing game benefits from a decent QB ... but otherwise, they're really limited in that category. I believe another top WR of theirs, White, has been injured too (although I don't believe he's been lost for the year). Also, uncharacteristically for MSU ... their running game has been oddly anemic.

I'm split on who I "want" to win the Purdue vs MSU game ... but, were I a betting man, I'd put my money on Purdue.

PO'ed or not ... MSU appears to be limping towards the finish line this year.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Basically, I think it will come down to the Iowa and Wisconsin games at PSU. If Iowa wins and Wisco loses, we'll be in the B10 championship. Any other situation, it will be Wisco in the B10 championship.

Purdue could have something to say about this. Purdue is decent at defending the run ... and Wisconsin's D has been sketchy this year. Purdue could potentially serve Wisconsin their 2nd loss for us.

Ultimately, Iowa needs to make sure that they take care of their own business. If we do so ... I honestly believe that we're the best team in the west.

 

[LaQuintaHawkeye]

Wisconsin has been solid ... largely based on the strength of their rushing attack, the fact the refs consistently turn a blind eye to their OL holding, and the quality of their scoring D.

FIFY

 

[td77]

Michigan State appears to have a strong run D ... however, their passing O has been limited by injuries at WR. In fact, I believe that they just lost their top WR, Felton Davis, to a blown Achilles. Their passing game benefits from a decent QB ... but otherwise, they're really limited in that category. I believe another top WR of theirs, White, has been injured too (although I don't believe he's been lost for the year). Also, uncharacteristically for MSU ... their running game has been oddly anemic.

I'm split on who I "want" to win the Purdue vs MSU game ... but, were I a betting man, I'd put my money on Purdue.

PO'ed or not ... MSU appears to be limping towards the finish line this year.

Purdue is a 1 point favorite @MSU. On the contrary of the respect card, Hawks open as 7 point dogs @PSU.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

FIFY

LOL! Fair enough ...

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Purdue is a 1 point favorite @MSU. On the contrary of the respect card, Hawks open as 7 point dogs @PSU.

PSU's game versus MSU wasn't unlike ours against Wisconsin. They had a lead 17-14 lead until late in the 4th quarter ... but then gave up a late TD and ended up losing.

Similarly, PSU looked A LOT better than OSU ... but then faded late and lost that game too.

Traditionally, Happy Valley has been a tough place for visitors to play at ... at my guess is that folks are figuring that they won't lose a 3rd tough game at home (in a row).

I don't think that it has anything to do with disrespect ... it's just the line that's more likely to get even money on both sides.

You gotta remember that most folks look at Iowa's schedule ... and think that it's likely a cake-walk. Thus, there are reasons why some folks are overlooking the Hawks. Let them do so .... at their own peril!