The Big 12 should be the next to expand

Big Hawk D-Port

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Nov 29, 2004
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As wild as it is to say this after what happened to them last year, the Big 12 should be the next to expand. They could cement their status as a power 4 conference by adding Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State. That would effectively end the PAC 12, who might poach Kansas from them if the Big 12 doesn't act first.

Looking ahead at the next dominos to fall, the ACC is at risk of getting raided by the SEC. If that happens, look for them to come after Big 12 schools like West Virginia or perhaps Cinci or UCF. The Big 12 could insulate itself from that by adding to their membership now.
 

DodgerHawki

HR Heisman
Nov 19, 2002
9,647
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As wild as it is to say this after what happened to them last year, the Big 12 should be the next to expand. They could cement their status as a power 4 conference by adding Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State. That would effectively end the PAC 12, who might poach Kansas from them if the Big 12 doesn't act first.

Looking ahead at the next dominos to fall, the ACC is at risk of getting raided by the SEC. If that happens, look for them to come after Big 12 schools like West Virginia or perhaps Cinci or UCF. The Big 12 could insulate itself from that by adding to their membership now.
The schools you mentioned (Colorado, Utah, ASU, Arizona) are likely trying to get into the Big Ten. Those 4 schools are not likely to keep Big 12 as a power conference. Things are shaping up to be 2 super conferences of 20-24 teams, the Big 10 and SEC.
 

ichawk24

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Nov 21, 2005
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Why the F would those four leave to join Cincinnati and UCF? They’re still in a conference with Stanford and Washington.
 
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BBHawk

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Oct 31, 2001
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Iowa City
As wild as it is to say this after what happened to them last year, the Big 12 should be the next to expand. They could cement their status as a power 4 conference by adding Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State. That would effectively end the PAC 12, who might poach Kansas from them if the Big 12 doesn't act first.

Looking ahead at the next dominos to fall, the ACC is at risk of getting raided by the SEC. If that happens, look for them to come after Big 12 schools like West Virginia or perhaps Cinci or UCF. The Big 12 could insulate itself from that by adding to their membership now.
If they add a team that was previously a member, isn't that re-adding or getting them back?

As it is, the B12 won't have the panache of the B1G or the SEC, nor does it have the cache of the ACC. If Kansas jumps (ACC a natural fit), the conference will suffer. They'll need more than the table scraps left over from the the major conferences.
 

mikesright

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Jun 7, 2009
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I think this is an extremely weird take, that the Big 12 could be the aggressor here. They won't for a few reasons.

First of all, the PAC 12 currently has a minimum of six schools that are more attractive than the best Big 12 school. Washington, Oregon, Cal, Arizona State, Stanford, and Colorado are all more attractive to television executives because of their media markets and fanbases. Yes some of these schools don't fill up the stadium on game days, like Stanford, but their alumni base is one of the richest in the world - marketers pay a premium for demographics like that. The closest the Big 12 comes to matching that would either be a new school to the league, or Oklahoma State in football. Basketball isn't driving this bus, sorry Kansas.

The Big 12's remaining schools are usually pretty lucky if they have 750k fans watching on TV for a non OU or TX matchup - this is why those schools bolted so quickly - and there's not going to be any reason for TV executives to hand out a huge deal for the rights of those schools by and large. The Pac 12 has marginally better ratings and there is less dead weight - Baylor, TCU, and Kansas vs Wazzu and Oregon State. The Big 12 is also filled with commuter schools that aren't wealthy, big, or demographically sound. They aren't a factor in any big media markets either - they don't move the needle in Houston, Dallas, or Orlando - they're third or fourth in those markets at best.

In addition, the Pac12's TV contracts come up a year earlier. All of these schools are desperate for cash. This is a huge advantage right now. There is a good chance that Texas and Oklahoma buy themselves out or the league's membership criteria for enforcing damages to those schools end up precluding a big payout. In any case, schools aren't going to want to be the last man standing in that conference.
 
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Gonzo Bloor

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As wild as it is to say this after what happened to them last year, the Big 12 should be the next to expand. They could cement their status as a power 4 conference by adding Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State. That would effectively end the PAC 12, who might poach Kansas from them if the Big 12 doesn't act first.

Looking ahead at the next dominos to fall, the ACC is at risk of getting raided by the SEC. If that happens, look for them to come after Big 12 schools like West Virginia or perhaps Cinci or UCF. The Big 12 could insulate itself from that by adding to their membership now.
There's not going to be any more Power 4 or Power 5. There's Power 2, and everyone else. It'll be interesting to see who gobbles who between the Big 12 and Pac 12, but regardless there isn't going to be a single national program in either.
 
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BonzoFury

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Kansas is a half hour from KC. Not exactly insignificant, and plenty of KU fans reside there.

I was about to respond similarly. Then I checked and KC is only the 34th largest TV market. I'm a bit surprised, expected it to be bigger. Spent some time in KC and it's curiously split among college teams. Strong Nebraska presence and of course Mizzou as well. As someone stated above, KU football barely moves the needle.
 

Frosty7130

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"Power 4" ended before it even started. No configuration of remaining Pac-12, Big 12, ACC, or G5 teams will even come close to the new B1G and SEC, especially since both are still going to expand more.
 

fezzador

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Sep 12, 2006
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There's not going to be any more Power 4 or Power 5. There's Power 2, and everyone else. It'll be interesting to see who gobbles who between the Big 12 and Pac 12, but regardless there isn't going to be a single national program in either.
Ultimately it will be a Power One with general regional pods/divisions. Academics and geography no longer drive conference realignment, it’s about who can generate the most revenue.
 
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I think this is an extremely weird take, that the Big 12 could be the aggressor here. They won't for a few reasons.

First of all, the PAC 12 currently has a minimum of six schools that are more attractive than the best Big 12 school. Washington, Oregon, Cal, Arizona State, Stanford, and Colorado are all more attractive to television executives because of their media markets and fanbases. Yes some of these schools don't fill up the stadium on game days, like Stanford, but their alumni base is one of the richest in the world - marketers pay a premium for demographics like that. The closest the Big 12 comes to matching that would either be a new school to the league, or Oklahoma State in football. Basketball isn't driving this bus, sorry Kansas.

The Big 12's remaining schools are usually pretty lucky if they have 750k fans watching on TV for a non OU or TX matchup - this is why those schools bolted so quickly - and there's not going to be any reason for TV executives to hand out a huge deal for the rights of those schools by and large. The Pac 12 has marginally better ratings and there is less dead weight - Baylor, TCU, and Kansas vs Wazzu and Oregon State. The Big 12 is also filled with commuter schools that aren't wealthy, big, or demographically sound. They aren't a factor in any big media markets either - they don't move the needle in Houston, Dallas, or Orlando - they're third or fourth in those markets at best.

In addition, the Pac12's TV contracts come up a year earlier. All of these schools are desperate for cash. This is a huge advantage right now. There is a good chance that Texas and Oklahoma buy themselves out or the league's membership criteria for enforcing damages to those schools end up precluding a big payout. In any case, schools aren't going to want to be the last man standing in that conference.
You make some very good points. I would agree overall that the Pac has more current value. I assume when you are speaking about commuter schools, you are referencing the future additions to the B12? (e.g. UCF, Cincy and Houston). I do think even with BYU, those new entries really dilute the B12 to where there is not much of an argument. Cincy does have some nice momentum but that is about it.

While Football is a bigger deal down in Texas, the challenge is schools like TCU and Baylor have very small student bodies, relative to traditional state schools.

I could see the B12 getting pilfered, though they are not a great fit with the Pac. Here is one scenario, just an example:

Pac 16
Oregon
Wash
Stanford
Cal
Or St
Wazzu
ASU
UofA

Utah
CU
Texas Tech
Ok State
K State
Kansas
Baylor
TCU
 

doughuddl2

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Sep 5, 2009
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As wild as it is to say this after what happened to them last year, the Big 12 should be the next to expand. They could cement their status as a power 4 conference by adding Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State. That would effectively end the PAC 12, who might poach Kansas from them if the Big 12 doesn't act first.

Looking ahead at the next dominos to fall, the ACC is at risk of getting raided by the SEC. If that happens, look for them to come after Big 12 schools like West Virginia or perhaps Cinci or UCF. The Big 12 could insulate itself from that by adding to their membership now.
The ACC is contracted thru 2036. No one wants to pay the massive buyout. +$50M and their tv rights money goes to the ACC thru 2036.
 

MeetTheFerentz

HR Heisman
Nov 20, 2006
9,007
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If Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Utah and Colorado join forces look for the pull on Nebraska to be very strong.
As much as I like the idea of Nub bolting from the Big Ten....you really think they'd consider leaving the wealthiest and most influential conference in the country to rekindle a few old Big 8/12 rivalries on a sinking ship? .GMAFB.
 

MeetTheFerentz

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Nov 20, 2006
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You make some very good points. I would agree overall that the Pac has more current value. I assume when you are speaking about commuter schools, you are referencing the future additions to the B12? (e.g. UCF, Cincy and Houston). I do think even with BYU, those new entries really dilute the B12 to where there is not much of an argument. Cincy does have some nice momentum but that is about it.

While Football is a bigger deal down in Texas, the challenge is schools like TCU and Baylor have very small student bodies, relative to traditional state schools.

I could see the B12 getting pilfered, though they are not a great fit with the Pac. Here is one scenario, just an example:

Pac 16
Oregon
Wash
Stanford
Cal
Or St
Wazzu
ASU
UofA

Utah
CU
Texas Tech
Ok State
K State
Kansas
Baylor
TCU
I could see this happening, although I could see the Pac-16 preferring BYU and Boise St to the Texas schools. Baylor and TCU wouldn't exactly make the Dallas area "Pac-16 country," as a vast majority of college sports fans there pull for the Longhorns or Sooners, with the rest the Aggies.

Iowa St is in a pretty tough spot right now. It looks like we're headed to 4 or maybe only 2 super-conferences, and the Big 12 will likely be squeezed out one way or another.
 
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DogBoyRy

HR Legend
Jul 28, 2006
10,338
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"Power 4" ended before it even started. No configuration of remaining Pac-12, Big 12, ACC, or G5 teams will even come close to the new B1G and SEC, especially since both are still going to expand more.
If Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Utah and Colorado join forces look for the pull on Nebraska to be very strong.
They’ll have $65 million reasons every year to ignore that pull.
 

nck24

HR All-American
Dec 22, 2002
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I was about to respond similarly. Then I checked and KC is only the 34th largest TV market. I'm a bit surprised, expected it to be bigger. Spent some time in KC and it's curiously split among college teams. Strong Nebraska presence and of course Mizzou as well. As someone stated above, KU football barely moves the needle.
My decade living in KC exposed me to the " I am a Kansas Basketball Fan but I'm a Nebraska Football fan" type of people. Massive frontrunners
 
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Big Hawk D-Port

HR Heisman
Nov 29, 2004
6,332
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I think this is an extremely weird take, that the Big 12 could be the aggressor here. They won't for a few reasons.

First of all, the PAC 12 currently has a minimum of six schools that are more attractive than the best Big 12 school. Washington, Oregon, Cal, Arizona State, Stanford, and Colorado are all more attractive to television executives because of their media markets and fanbases. Yes some of these schools don't fill up the stadium on game days, like Stanford, but their alumni base is one of the richest in the world - marketers pay a premium for demographics like that. The closest the Big 12 comes to matching that would either be a new school to the league, or Oklahoma State in football. Basketball isn't driving this bus, sorry Kansas.

The Big 12's remaining schools are usually pretty lucky if they have 750k fans watching on TV for a non OU or TX matchup - this is why those schools bolted so quickly - and there's not going to be any reason for TV executives to hand out a huge deal for the rights of those schools by and large. The Pac 12 has marginally better ratings and there is less dead weight - Baylor, TCU, and Kansas vs Wazzu and Oregon State. The Big 12 is also filled with commuter schools that aren't wealthy, big, or demographically sound. They aren't a factor in any big media markets either - they don't move the needle in Houston, Dallas, or Orlando - they're third or fourth in those markets at best.

In addition, the Pac12's TV contracts come up a year earlier. All of these schools are desperate for cash. This is a huge advantage right now. There is a good chance that Texas and Oklahoma buy themselves out or the league's membership criteria for enforcing damages to those schools end up precluding a big payout. In any case, schools aren't going to want to be the last man standing in that conference.
No matter what they are saying today, I think conventional wisdom is that B16 is not done raiding the PAC but they won’t take those schools. I guess the Big 12 is always waiting if that happens.
 

BonzoFury

HR All-State
Feb 4, 2022
578
1,153
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My decade living in KC exposed me to the " I am a Kansas Basketball Fan but I'm a Nebraska Football fan" type of people. Massive frontrunners
I met a couple in KC years ago who played this game. I said, "Lemme guess...you're Yankees fans when it comes to baseball and Patriots fans for the NFL and ...". They didn't care to be called out on their bandwagon jumper approach to fandom.
 

hoffmkr

HR MVP
Jan 2, 2003
1,753
391
83
As much as I like the idea of Nub bolting from the Big Ten....you really think they'd consider leaving the wealthiest and most influential conference in the country to rekindle a few old Big 8/12 rivalries on a sinking ship? .GMAFB.
Only way you get rid of Nebraska is “flunk them out” for failure to maintain Academic standing.
 

Eburghawk

HR MVP
Nov 9, 2001
1,728
3,360
113
by 2035 Nebraska will be back in the Big 8, Starter Jackets and Zubaz will be back in style, and a hologram of Tom Osborne will be coaching the team.

Full Circle.
 

wolve1972

All-Conference
Sep 3, 2018
467
530
93
Nebraska fans yearn to return to the salad days of the Big8.
Let them go back to the remains of the Big 12 or whatever they are now. They could schedule games against Sisters of Poor and Mt Union School for the Deaf - or whatever remains of the Big 12. I'd just bet that the B1G will not have a problem replacing them
 

onlyTheObvious

HR Heisman
Jan 3, 2021
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Crazy people think competitiveness and regional and tradition mean anything anymore.

in a market with a crap ton of TV sets? You can become a player. Otherwise you better be like Iowa and already in a good conference.
 
I could see this happening, although I could see the Pac-16 preferring BYU and Boise St to the Texas schools. Baylor and TCU wouldn't exactly make the Dallas area "Pac-16 country," as a vast majority of college sports fans there pull for the Longhorns or Sooners, with the rest the Aggies.

Iowa St is in a pretty tough spot right now. It looks like we're headed to 4 or maybe only 2 super-conferences, and the Big 12 will likely be squeezed out one way or another.
Possibly, BYU is a bit of an ND light, meaning they have a built in fan base around the country/world. BYU has struggled to keep up recently, and Boise St. too is just not what they once were. BYU is obviously still very religious, which is not a great fit for the Coastal schools. Baylor does quite a bit with less so to speak. Even the basketball national championship helps them. They have really diluted the Baptist part of the equation in favor of being more "mainstream." TCU has lost some steam, but Patterson did wonders to build that program into a consistent winner and have elevated them to upper half of the B12 after being an "expansion" team. TCU is definitely ahead of Baylor on the journey to dilute the religious angle, that is for sure. But agree, that they are less of a fit than Pacific/Mountain public schools.

In the end, conferences will need to make compromises. The B1G threw out geography, but has a ton of leverage.
The B12 is really thin, even moreso than the Pac. There are bridge type schools like UofA, ASU and Utah that could more easily coexist with say Ok St, K State and TTech to name a few.

As someone who has lived in both California (mostly L.A., but one year in S.F.) and now resides in TX (Dallas area), neither conference has great options. Maybe the Pac will just decide less is more and decide they dont want to further dilute? We shall see.