The Big Ten Schedule and who catches a break?

[DanL53]

Just going over the schedules for the Big Ten basketball season. Admittedly, this is completely unscientific and entirely based on a couple presumptions.

1) That the bottom four teams in the league, teams everybody else should beat, or be favored to beat either home or away, are Minnesota, Nebraska, Penn State and Rutgers.

2) That the top three teams in the league, teams that should be favored to beat the other eleven teams either home or away, are Maryland, Indiana and Michigan State.

I know, in reality it won't work out that way as upsets happen and it's a big part of the final picture. But for this little evaluation of schedules let's say that the odds are I'm right about the bottom four and top three.

Let's look at my top ten Big Ten teams and their schedules:

Illinois. Plays the bottom four teams six times, the top three four times.
Indiana. 6 and 2
Iowa. 5 and 5
Maryland. 4 and 2
Michigan. 6 and 4
Mich State. 6 and 2
Northwestern. 6 and 4
Ohio State. 5 and 5
Purdue. 5 and 4
Wisconsin. 4 and 6

Of course the top three teams don't have to play themselves so they get a break. What's this show?

Michigan State and Indiana have an amazingly easy schedule.
Wisconsin on the other hand was handed as tough a schedule as could be had.

Based on this...combined with more of my own opinions, I see the Big Ten shaking out:

Michigan State 15-3
Maryland 14-4
Indiana 13-5
Purdue 12-6
Michigan 11-7
Iowa 10-8
Ohio State 9-9
Wisconsin 9-9
Northwestern 8-10
Illinois 7-11
Penn State 6-12
Nebraska 5-13
Minnesota 4-14
Rutgers. 3-15

(Edited to add guess at final records)

 

[CanadaHawk]

Michigan State, schedule gives too big an edge over...
Maryland, a dang good team and better coached than...
Indiana, who if Crean fails worse than third should be shot and he might because...
Purdue, who only needs someone to play decent at point to challenge the top three unless...
Michigan, enjoys their cushy schedule but right behind them are...
Iowa, who has experience that could sneak them up a notch, but will be chased by the raw talent of...
Ohio State, with only one player besides sophomores and freshmen, but...
Wisconsin, got hosed by the schedule and I love it!!!! And...
Northwestern, with a good schedule could move up a notch and so could...
Illinois, but of course Groce enjoys no more confidence from me than Crean.
The last four, just totally guessing at:
Penn State
Nebraska
Minnesota
Rutgers.

I can see MSU, MD but there are questions to be answered on both teams
I'll believe IN at #3 when I see it. This may be the year Painter has a chance to show he's the better coach in IN with the talent he has. I'm seeing IA fight it out with IN for 5th but other than that, you could be right.

 

[HawkAttackDial911]

Thanks for looking up the strength of schedules. I'd guess:

Michigan State
Maryland
Purdue
Wisconsin
Indiana
Michigan
Iowa
Ohio State
Illinois
Northwestern
Minnesota
Penn State
Nebraska
Rutgers

Because Mich St.'s schedule is easier than Maryland I have them first. Bo Ryan has never finished lower than 4th in the B1G. I'm sure there were some players on the bench who are going to surprise. I can't get behind a Tom Crean team unless they have overwhelming talent.

 

[perryhawk]

Thanks for looking up the strength of schedules. I'd guess:

Michigan State
Maryland
Purdue
Wisconsin
Indiana
Michigan
Iowa
Ohio State
Illinois
Northwestern
Minnesota
Penn State
Nebraska
Rutgers

Because Mich St.'s schedule is easier than Maryland I have them first. Bo Ryan has never finished lower than 4th in the B1G. I'm sure there were some players on the bench who are going to surprise. I can't get behind a Tom Crean team unless they have overwhelming talent.

I see MSU Maryland & Purdue as the top 3. After that I think its a toss up between Iowa wisconsin and Michigan. ....with Indiana most likely to lead the rest of the pack.

 

[blockm2]

2) That the top three teams in the league, teams that should be favored to beat the other eleven teams either home or away, are Maryland, Indiana and Michigan State.

And that would be an incorrect assumption. The top 3 teams will probably be underdogs to almost any of the next 3 or 4 teams on the road, or at least close to that. People tend to overestimate the differences between say a top 10 team and a top 25 team and people tend to underestimate the effect of playing on the road. Your average team ranked around #15 in the country would probably be favored against almost every team ranked above them at home.

Road wins are hard to come by, even for the best teams in the conference. Last year Wisconsin was 19-2 against Big Ten opponents (9-0 at home, 3-0 BTT, 7-2 on the road) but only 2-1 on the road vs KenPom top 50 in conference play. The season before Michigan ran away with the conference title but also dropped 2 road games along the way.

 

[DanL53]

And that would be an incorrect assumption. The top 3 teams will probably be underdogs to almost any of the next 3 or 4 teams on the road, or at least close to that. People tend to overestimate the differences between say a top 10 team and a top 25 team and people tend to underestimate the effect of playing on the road. Your average team ranked around #15 in the country would probably be favored against almost every team ranked above them at home.

Road wins are hard to come by, even for the best teams in the conference. Last year Wisconsin was 19-2 against Big Ten opponents (9-0 at home, 3-0 BTT, 7-2 on the road) but only 2-1 on the road vs KenPom top 50 in conference play. The season before Michigan ran away with the conference title but also dropped 2 road games along the way.

If you want to get technical about it perhaps I should have said, overall presuming the top three teams are that much more talented than the rest, they should be favored whether home or away in the majority of games against other conference opponents. Much like Wisconsin went 7-2 on the road last year, and Michigan 7-2 the year before.

Hopefully that is satisfactory.

 

[blockm2]

I'm not trying to be too picky, just want to recognize that the best teams in the conference will be underdogs in quite a few conference road games depending on their exact schedule. In a conference that could feature as many as 7 top 25 teams, something like 13-5 might be good enough to win a share of the conference title.

 

[SSG T]

Not bad. But, and this is a massive but, I will not pick Wisconsin out of the top in the conference until Bo shows me he's capable of finishing outside of the top 4. They've been down before only to pull out 13-5 records.

 

[DanL53]

Not bad. But, and this is a massive but, I will not pick Wisconsin out of the top in the conference until Bo shows me he's capable of finishing outside of the top 4. They've been down before only to pull out 13-5 records.

I completely understand Ryan's remarkable record. I'm basing much of my view on the rather abstract scheduling method which is only in it's second year. If at the end of the season people say, "Wisconsin would have finished in the top four, but for their schedule."? Well, maybe. That schedule is the new math.

 

[yerpHAWK]

I'm not trying to be too picky, just want to recognize that the best teams in the conference will be underdogs in quite a few conference road games depending on their exact schedule. In a conference that could feature as many as 7 top 25 teams, something like 13-5 might be good enough to win a share of the conference title.

I love the big 10. Reminds me of the old Big East when every game was a dog fight, and constant top 25 games.

 

[Psyclone]

I love the big 10. Reminds me of the old Big East when every game was a dog fight, and constant top 25 games.

I like the old Big 10 better. Only Maryland brings something. The conference would be better without Nebraska and Rutgers.