Tom and I picking the exact same score makes me a little nervous. 
Zach Johnson, our special guest, can #FeeltheScheel
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The Breakdown
Tom Kakert | Editor
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Kickoff: 2:30 p.m.
Tickets: As of Tuesday, 4,400 ticket remain unsold for the opener.
TV: ESPNU – Eamon McAnaney and John Congemi on the call
Last Meeting: Iowa defeated Miami (OH) 21-3 in 2003.
The Weather: Partly sunny skies and temps in the upper 70’s.
The Line: Iowa is a 28 point favorite.
History: The Hawkeyes and the RedHawks have met three times in the past. They played three straight years in the in the early 2000’s with Iowa winning all three contests. Iowa is 2-0 against Miami (OH) in games played at Kinnick Stadium. Kirk Ferentz enters his 18th season at the helm of the Hawkeye program with 127-87 record. RedHawks coach Chuck Martin enters his third season leading their program and has posted a 5-19 record.
C.J. Beathard leads the Iowa offense.
THE BREAKDOWN
Iowa rush offense vs. Miami (OH) rush defense
The Hawkeyes will miss the running of Jordan Canzeri, but they have a pretty potent combination coming back in LeShun Daniels and Akrum Wadley. The best of Daniels was on display against Minnesota when he ran for 195 yards and 3 scores. The best of Wadley showed up in the Northwestern game when he rushed for 204 yards and 4 touchdowns. This will be a pretty solid combo for Iowa simply because they are different in the style department. Daniels is more of a power back, while Wadley will be the shifty back who can make people miss in space. Derrick Mitchell chips in on third down and true freshman Toks Akinrabade is going to try and find a role. Also on the running side will be a healthy C.J. Beathard. When he was healthy last season, and even when he wasn’t Beathard showed he could pick up yards and first downs with his legs.
The RedHawks were not great against the run last season, giving up an average of 169 yards per game on the ground. That worked out to about 4.2 yards per carry. Last season, Iowa averaged 4.5 a carry. The top two tacklers for Miami (OH) graduated, so some new faces moving up the depth chart. The RedHawks will probably be pretty aggressive in their run stopping simply because they know if they can’t stop Iowa on the ground, it’s going to be a long day. Eventually, I think Iowa just beats them down up front and have a pretty strong day running the football. ADVANTAGE: IOWA
Iowa pass offense vs. Miami (OH) pass defense
While there are certainly some question marks when it comes to who will be catching the football for the Hawkeyes in 2016, there’s no question about the guy throwing the football. C.J. Beathard had an outstanding year in 2015. He didn’t put up eye popping numbers, 17 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions, but he threw for 2,809 yards and did that with a sports hernia for much of the season.
The expected top two targets returning are Matt VandeBerg and George Kittle. VandeBerg had a team high 65 receptions for 703 yards. Kittle led Iowa receivers with six touchdown receptions in his 20 catches. Beyond those two, there are some questions. Riley McCarron will get plenty of work and last year he had a huge touchdown catch against Iowa State. Jay Scheel appears to be on the rise as a wide receiver and Jerminic Smith showed last year as a true freshman that he can be productive with a 100 yard receiving game against Illinois. Keep an eye on true freshman Devonte Young, who has been impressive in fall camp. At tight end, Peter Pekar will be the second in command at the position, but he’s more of a blocker than a receiver. The player to watch might be true freshman Noah Fant, who is playing this year and had a strong fall camp.
For the RedHawks, pass coverage was a struggle. They gave up 236 yards per game and 20 touchdown passes. Opposing teams completed 62% of their passes last season and averaged 12.2 yards per completion. They did play a lot of young players last year and the starters in the secondary are all juniors, so you would think that they improve as a group. But, if they are playing aggressively and perhaps selling out to stop the run, big plays could be the order of the day for the Iowa offense. ADVANTAGE: IOWA
Josey Jewell and Desmond King lead the Iowa defense.
Miami (OH) rush offense vs. Iowa rush defense
If there’s one area where the RedHawks were pretty decent last season, it was in their running game. Led by Alonzo Smith’s 498 yards last season, the young back showed some promise. In the final game of the regular season, he cracked the century mark and averaged 4 yards a carry on the year. What holds Miami (OH) running game from making bigger strides is pretty simple, they had a young and inexperienced offensive line. That young line is a year older, but it’s still young. They start four sophomores and a redshirt freshman this year. In 2015 as a team, they averaged 3.6 yards per carry and scored just 7 touchdowns on the ground.
Iowa’s rush defense was great for most of the 2015 season. Then late in the year, it showed signs of regression. Iowa gave up 121 yards per game on the ground and for a good chunk of the year, that total was under 100 yards per game. They also kept opposing teams out of the end zone on the ground by allowing just 11 scores via the rush. Iowa’s defense will be led by their stout defensive tackle duo of Jaleel Johnson and Nathan Bazata. At linebacker, Josey Jewell is one of the best in the country and stopping the run and the safety support from the hard hitting duo of Miles Taylor and Brandon Snyder will certainly make life tough on the RedHawks on Saturday. Given the inexperience up front for Miami (OH), it’s going to be tough for them to establish any sort of running game. ADVANTAGE: IOWA
Miami (OH) pass offense vs. Iowa pass defense
Billy Bahl took over the RedHawks attack last year under center and it was a struggle throwing the football. He completed just 45% of his throws for 1,416 yards and he threw 13 interceptions. Bahl was the future for Miami (OH) under center and probably arrived a year too early, so I would expect some improvement in 2016. His favorite Rakeem Williams, who led them in receptions for 33, and Jared Murphy who hauled in 29 grabs. Tight end Ryan Smith had 21 receptions on the year, but their air attack only netted 18 touchdowns on the season and Bahl threw 8 of them.
Iowa’s pass defense will be solid once again this year. Anytime you can start the discussion with the best cornerback in college football, it usually means you are in good shape. Iowa is in great shape with All American Desmond King returning for his senior year. He will be joined by another senior corner, Greg Mabin, who tends to see a lot of footballs thrown his direction as teams try to avoid testing King. Taylor has improved his coverage skills and Snyder should develop into a nice pass defender at safety. Last season, Iowa gave up 219 yards per game in the air with a completion percentage of 54%. One of the areas to watch on Saturday will be the Iowa pass rush. Anthony Nelson could be a key player for Iowa in this area and expect to see some of the Raider package on third down on Saturday. It could include more than one true freshman in those situations. Bahl hasn’t proven to be a dangerous passer thus far and I would expect Iowa’s hard hitting defense in the secondary will in full turnover creation mode on Saturday. ADVANTAGE: IOWA
Special Teams
This might be the most equal area for this game simply because both sides are trying to break in new faces in the kicking game. For Iowa, it will be graduate transfer Ron Coluzzi handling the punting duties and true freshman Keith Duncan taking over the placekicking chores. Coluzzi will also handle the kickoffs and should be average to above average in those duties.
On the Miami (OH) side Nick Dowd takes over the placekicking duties. He was 2-2 last year on PAT’s and made a 22 yard field goal. How will he handle those duties in front of 70K fans at Kinnick Stadium is going to be interesting to watch. Justin Martin takes over as their punter and he’s a blank slate right now. Perhaps the edge area for the Hawkeyes is the punt and kickoff return abilities of Desmond King. He was terrific last season for Iowa and I suspect he will be good again this year. ADVANTAGE: IOWA
THE LAST CALL
A month or two ago when I looked at this game, I thought it might be testy one for Iowa. Not that I had any doubt that the Hawkeyes would win this game, but simply that I kind of thought Miami (OH) was a little better than they actually are this season.
Diving deep into this game and the analysis of the numbers coming off last year, I’m now pretty convinced that the Hawkeyes should enjoy a very comfortable victory. The RedHawks are just too young and too inexperienced to give Iowa much of a test. Iowa’s offense should have a field day on the ground and in the air. Miami (OH) plans to play aggressively on defense and that’s probably not a good idea when you can’t match the Hawkeyes athletically. On the defensive side, if you can’t run the ball at a sustained level, you are playing right into Iowa’s hands. Miami (OH) is just too green on the line of scrimmage and if you can’t establish the ground game, Iowa is going to generally keep an opponent in check.
I think Iowa’s going to create at least four turnovers and shortly after halftime, the Hawkeyes will salt this one away. IOWA 38 MIAMI (OH) 10. My pick to click this week is LeShun Daniels. I think this one will be shades of Minnesota last year from him. Daniels goes for over 150 yards and three scores.
Zach Johnson, our special guest, can #FeeltheScheel
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The Breakdown
Tom Kakert | Editor
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Kickoff: 2:30 p.m.
Tickets: As of Tuesday, 4,400 ticket remain unsold for the opener.
TV: ESPNU – Eamon McAnaney and John Congemi on the call
Last Meeting: Iowa defeated Miami (OH) 21-3 in 2003.
The Weather: Partly sunny skies and temps in the upper 70’s.
The Line: Iowa is a 28 point favorite.
History: The Hawkeyes and the RedHawks have met three times in the past. They played three straight years in the in the early 2000’s with Iowa winning all three contests. Iowa is 2-0 against Miami (OH) in games played at Kinnick Stadium. Kirk Ferentz enters his 18th season at the helm of the Hawkeye program with 127-87 record. RedHawks coach Chuck Martin enters his third season leading their program and has posted a 5-19 record.
C.J. Beathard leads the Iowa offense.
THE BREAKDOWN
Iowa rush offense vs. Miami (OH) rush defense
The Hawkeyes will miss the running of Jordan Canzeri, but they have a pretty potent combination coming back in LeShun Daniels and Akrum Wadley. The best of Daniels was on display against Minnesota when he ran for 195 yards and 3 scores. The best of Wadley showed up in the Northwestern game when he rushed for 204 yards and 4 touchdowns. This will be a pretty solid combo for Iowa simply because they are different in the style department. Daniels is more of a power back, while Wadley will be the shifty back who can make people miss in space. Derrick Mitchell chips in on third down and true freshman Toks Akinrabade is going to try and find a role. Also on the running side will be a healthy C.J. Beathard. When he was healthy last season, and even when he wasn’t Beathard showed he could pick up yards and first downs with his legs.
The RedHawks were not great against the run last season, giving up an average of 169 yards per game on the ground. That worked out to about 4.2 yards per carry. Last season, Iowa averaged 4.5 a carry. The top two tacklers for Miami (OH) graduated, so some new faces moving up the depth chart. The RedHawks will probably be pretty aggressive in their run stopping simply because they know if they can’t stop Iowa on the ground, it’s going to be a long day. Eventually, I think Iowa just beats them down up front and have a pretty strong day running the football. ADVANTAGE: IOWA
Iowa pass offense vs. Miami (OH) pass defense
While there are certainly some question marks when it comes to who will be catching the football for the Hawkeyes in 2016, there’s no question about the guy throwing the football. C.J. Beathard had an outstanding year in 2015. He didn’t put up eye popping numbers, 17 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions, but he threw for 2,809 yards and did that with a sports hernia for much of the season.
The expected top two targets returning are Matt VandeBerg and George Kittle. VandeBerg had a team high 65 receptions for 703 yards. Kittle led Iowa receivers with six touchdown receptions in his 20 catches. Beyond those two, there are some questions. Riley McCarron will get plenty of work and last year he had a huge touchdown catch against Iowa State. Jay Scheel appears to be on the rise as a wide receiver and Jerminic Smith showed last year as a true freshman that he can be productive with a 100 yard receiving game against Illinois. Keep an eye on true freshman Devonte Young, who has been impressive in fall camp. At tight end, Peter Pekar will be the second in command at the position, but he’s more of a blocker than a receiver. The player to watch might be true freshman Noah Fant, who is playing this year and had a strong fall camp.
For the RedHawks, pass coverage was a struggle. They gave up 236 yards per game and 20 touchdown passes. Opposing teams completed 62% of their passes last season and averaged 12.2 yards per completion. They did play a lot of young players last year and the starters in the secondary are all juniors, so you would think that they improve as a group. But, if they are playing aggressively and perhaps selling out to stop the run, big plays could be the order of the day for the Iowa offense. ADVANTAGE: IOWA
Josey Jewell and Desmond King lead the Iowa defense.
Miami (OH) rush offense vs. Iowa rush defense
If there’s one area where the RedHawks were pretty decent last season, it was in their running game. Led by Alonzo Smith’s 498 yards last season, the young back showed some promise. In the final game of the regular season, he cracked the century mark and averaged 4 yards a carry on the year. What holds Miami (OH) running game from making bigger strides is pretty simple, they had a young and inexperienced offensive line. That young line is a year older, but it’s still young. They start four sophomores and a redshirt freshman this year. In 2015 as a team, they averaged 3.6 yards per carry and scored just 7 touchdowns on the ground.
Iowa’s rush defense was great for most of the 2015 season. Then late in the year, it showed signs of regression. Iowa gave up 121 yards per game on the ground and for a good chunk of the year, that total was under 100 yards per game. They also kept opposing teams out of the end zone on the ground by allowing just 11 scores via the rush. Iowa’s defense will be led by their stout defensive tackle duo of Jaleel Johnson and Nathan Bazata. At linebacker, Josey Jewell is one of the best in the country and stopping the run and the safety support from the hard hitting duo of Miles Taylor and Brandon Snyder will certainly make life tough on the RedHawks on Saturday. Given the inexperience up front for Miami (OH), it’s going to be tough for them to establish any sort of running game. ADVANTAGE: IOWA
Miami (OH) pass offense vs. Iowa pass defense
Billy Bahl took over the RedHawks attack last year under center and it was a struggle throwing the football. He completed just 45% of his throws for 1,416 yards and he threw 13 interceptions. Bahl was the future for Miami (OH) under center and probably arrived a year too early, so I would expect some improvement in 2016. His favorite Rakeem Williams, who led them in receptions for 33, and Jared Murphy who hauled in 29 grabs. Tight end Ryan Smith had 21 receptions on the year, but their air attack only netted 18 touchdowns on the season and Bahl threw 8 of them.
Iowa’s pass defense will be solid once again this year. Anytime you can start the discussion with the best cornerback in college football, it usually means you are in good shape. Iowa is in great shape with All American Desmond King returning for his senior year. He will be joined by another senior corner, Greg Mabin, who tends to see a lot of footballs thrown his direction as teams try to avoid testing King. Taylor has improved his coverage skills and Snyder should develop into a nice pass defender at safety. Last season, Iowa gave up 219 yards per game in the air with a completion percentage of 54%. One of the areas to watch on Saturday will be the Iowa pass rush. Anthony Nelson could be a key player for Iowa in this area and expect to see some of the Raider package on third down on Saturday. It could include more than one true freshman in those situations. Bahl hasn’t proven to be a dangerous passer thus far and I would expect Iowa’s hard hitting defense in the secondary will in full turnover creation mode on Saturday. ADVANTAGE: IOWA
Special Teams
This might be the most equal area for this game simply because both sides are trying to break in new faces in the kicking game. For Iowa, it will be graduate transfer Ron Coluzzi handling the punting duties and true freshman Keith Duncan taking over the placekicking chores. Coluzzi will also handle the kickoffs and should be average to above average in those duties.
On the Miami (OH) side Nick Dowd takes over the placekicking duties. He was 2-2 last year on PAT’s and made a 22 yard field goal. How will he handle those duties in front of 70K fans at Kinnick Stadium is going to be interesting to watch. Justin Martin takes over as their punter and he’s a blank slate right now. Perhaps the edge area for the Hawkeyes is the punt and kickoff return abilities of Desmond King. He was terrific last season for Iowa and I suspect he will be good again this year. ADVANTAGE: IOWA
THE LAST CALL
A month or two ago when I looked at this game, I thought it might be testy one for Iowa. Not that I had any doubt that the Hawkeyes would win this game, but simply that I kind of thought Miami (OH) was a little better than they actually are this season.
Diving deep into this game and the analysis of the numbers coming off last year, I’m now pretty convinced that the Hawkeyes should enjoy a very comfortable victory. The RedHawks are just too young and too inexperienced to give Iowa much of a test. Iowa’s offense should have a field day on the ground and in the air. Miami (OH) plans to play aggressively on defense and that’s probably not a good idea when you can’t match the Hawkeyes athletically. On the defensive side, if you can’t run the ball at a sustained level, you are playing right into Iowa’s hands. Miami (OH) is just too green on the line of scrimmage and if you can’t establish the ground game, Iowa is going to generally keep an opponent in check.
I think Iowa’s going to create at least four turnovers and shortly after halftime, the Hawkeyes will salt this one away. IOWA 38 MIAMI (OH) 10. My pick to click this week is LeShun Daniels. I think this one will be shades of Minnesota last year from him. Daniels goes for over 150 yards and three scores.
