We continue to hear the national and even regional/conference media bash on Iowa's "weak schedule", with the argument based predominately on missing the top in conference teams and their weak out-of-conference schedule. While Iowa has (and will continue to benefit) from an easier schedule, just how "easy" is Iowa's schedule?
Iowa has now beaten four FBS teams with a winning record (Wisconsin, Illinois, Pittsburgh, Northwestern) and another team currently ranked #4 in FCS. Take a look at those wins:
Wisconsin (5-2) - Iowa and Alabama (6-1 with loss to Ole Miss)
Northwestern (5-2) - Iowa and Michigan (5-2 with close losses to #7 Utah and #4 MSU)
Pittsburgh (5-1) - Iowa; big games coming up against North Carolina (5-1), Notre Dame, and Duke (5-1)
Illinois (5-2) - Iowa and North Carolina (5-1)
If you consider the above, suddenly Iowa's schedule doesn't look so bad. That said, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Pittsburgh still haven't beat an FBS team with a winning record. Northwestern does have quality wins against Stanford and Duke.
To be honest, however, the strength of schedule really won't hurt Iowa if they go 13-0. In that case, they will get a quality win over Ohio State/Michigan State and both of those teams will have a loss. Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma State still play each other and only one will be able to stay undefeated. It is likely that the winner of the LSU-Alabama game will play Florida for the SEC title. Florida State and Clemson still play.
In the worst case scenario for a 13-0 Iowa:
TCU, Baylor, or Oklahoma State wins out and stays undefeated and one of those teams has one close loss to the undefeated team (i.e. Baylor wins out and beats a one-loss TCU team by a few points).
Florida State or Clemson wins out and stays undefeated.
LSU wins out and stays undefeated.
Utah wins out and stays undefeated.
The undefeated Big 12 team, Florida State, and LSU would be in the playoff. Utah is already #7 and getting a first place vote in the Coach's Poll. They can still get two more "quality wins" over USC and UCLA. In addition, the one loss Big 12 team would get heavy consideration. In that scenario, I think Iowa is on the outside looking in. In this case, we can probably blame the schedule a bit for the snub.
The best case scenario for a 13-0 Iowa:
Michigan State or Ohio State goes undefeated in a "statement" kind of way. Iowa beats that team in the Big Ten Championship Game.
All four quality Big 12 teams still play each other (TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma) and end up with two losses each or only one team from the group has a single loss, removing the possibility of two Big 12 teams getting into the playoff. Probably the best would be Oklahoma beating TCU and Baylor but then losing to Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State loses to TCU and/or Baylor but beats Oklahoma. Doesn't matter then who wins the Baylor/TCU game.
Florida State beats Clemson and loses to Florida. Clemson loses to Florida State (the rest of their schedule is garbage). Further, Pitt wins out and beats Florida State in the ACC Championship Game.
LSU wins out, including the SEC Championship game. This would give Florida and Alabama two losses.
Utah loses to someone.
In this scenario, LSU is a lock. With Iowa left as the only remaining undefeated Power Conference team and coming off a big win against a top five Ohio State/Michigan State (as well as a win under their belt against a 12-1 Pitt team), Iowa would also be a lock and the likely #2 seed playing someone like TCU or Baylor in the semi-final game.
Iowa has now beaten four FBS teams with a winning record (Wisconsin, Illinois, Pittsburgh, Northwestern) and another team currently ranked #4 in FCS. Take a look at those wins:
Wisconsin (5-2) - Iowa and Alabama (6-1 with loss to Ole Miss)
Northwestern (5-2) - Iowa and Michigan (5-2 with close losses to #7 Utah and #4 MSU)
Pittsburgh (5-1) - Iowa; big games coming up against North Carolina (5-1), Notre Dame, and Duke (5-1)
Illinois (5-2) - Iowa and North Carolina (5-1)
If you consider the above, suddenly Iowa's schedule doesn't look so bad. That said, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Pittsburgh still haven't beat an FBS team with a winning record. Northwestern does have quality wins against Stanford and Duke.
To be honest, however, the strength of schedule really won't hurt Iowa if they go 13-0. In that case, they will get a quality win over Ohio State/Michigan State and both of those teams will have a loss. Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma State still play each other and only one will be able to stay undefeated. It is likely that the winner of the LSU-Alabama game will play Florida for the SEC title. Florida State and Clemson still play.
In the worst case scenario for a 13-0 Iowa:
TCU, Baylor, or Oklahoma State wins out and stays undefeated and one of those teams has one close loss to the undefeated team (i.e. Baylor wins out and beats a one-loss TCU team by a few points).
Florida State or Clemson wins out and stays undefeated.
LSU wins out and stays undefeated.
Utah wins out and stays undefeated.
The undefeated Big 12 team, Florida State, and LSU would be in the playoff. Utah is already #7 and getting a first place vote in the Coach's Poll. They can still get two more "quality wins" over USC and UCLA. In addition, the one loss Big 12 team would get heavy consideration. In that scenario, I think Iowa is on the outside looking in. In this case, we can probably blame the schedule a bit for the snub.
The best case scenario for a 13-0 Iowa:
Michigan State or Ohio State goes undefeated in a "statement" kind of way. Iowa beats that team in the Big Ten Championship Game.
All four quality Big 12 teams still play each other (TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma) and end up with two losses each or only one team from the group has a single loss, removing the possibility of two Big 12 teams getting into the playoff. Probably the best would be Oklahoma beating TCU and Baylor but then losing to Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State loses to TCU and/or Baylor but beats Oklahoma. Doesn't matter then who wins the Baylor/TCU game.
Florida State beats Clemson and loses to Florida. Clemson loses to Florida State (the rest of their schedule is garbage). Further, Pitt wins out and beats Florida State in the ACC Championship Game.
LSU wins out, including the SEC Championship game. This would give Florida and Alabama two losses.
Utah loses to someone.
In this scenario, LSU is a lock. With Iowa left as the only remaining undefeated Power Conference team and coming off a big win against a top five Ohio State/Michigan State (as well as a win under their belt against a 12-1 Pitt team), Iowa would also be a lock and the likely #2 seed playing someone like TCU or Baylor in the semi-final game.
