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The "Week of May 7th" NCAA baseball tournament projections thread

AuroraHawk

HB Heisman
Dec 18, 2004
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From the Sun-Herald (Mississippi) on May 8th (Iowa not included):
http://www.sunherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/patrick-magee/article210656354.html
Projects (guesses/speculates) B1G gets Minnesota (1 seed; 15th overall); OSU (2 seed); Indiana (2 seed); Michigan (3 seed) and Purdue (4 seed). Note: Oklahoma State projected as a 1 seed (14th overall). Iowa's record against these teams is 8-6.

From College Sports Madness on May 7th (Iowa makes the field):
http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/16095
Projects the B1G with four teams (Minnesota, Indiana, Iowa and Michigan). Minnesota projected as a #2; Indiana projected as a #2; Iowa projected as a #3; Michigan projected as a #3. That written, it projects Iowa and Minnesota in the same regional (seems unlikely) and lists OSU as one of the first four out.

Looks like Baseball America hasn't updated its projections yet but they are due out today. According to writer Teddy Cahill, after Iowa's series win against Okie St., Iowa will no longer be the first team out:

d1 Baseball projections haven't been updated either; should be out today. Last projections (before Mizzou and Okie St. games) had Iowa as one of the final five teams getting in. I'll be curious to see where Iowa now projects in d1 Baseball's projections. In its last projection, Iowa was a #3, Missouri was a #2 and Okie State was a #1 seed (12th overall). Can't help but think that going 2-2 against a projected #1 and #2 - even if they were home games - will solidify Iowa's projection at d1 Baseball.

I'm of the belief that making the final four in the B1G tournament is as close to "necessary" as possible. Falling out early won't be the "message" that Iowa baseball needs to deliver. With that in mind, I can't help but feel as though getting into the 4/5 game would be extremely helpful. Indiana is only 1/2 game back and its schedule, like Iowa's, isn't exactly daunting. I think that Iowa would be helped by Illinois having a rough run against Michigan and Nebraska along with Ohio State stumbling against Michigan State and Purdue. Given the head-to-head match-ups (Ohio State plays Purdue), I just don't see how Iowa can sneak into the 3 spot even if it were to sweep NW and PSU. Looks like #4 is about the best Iowa can get; a #5 seed is entirely possible. That very likely would set up a first round game against either OSU, Indiana or Illinois. Will need Allgeyer's "A" game. A first round win would likely set up a second round game against Minnesota (I think that they will win the conference regular season). Schanuel would pitch and he lost to Minnesota 3-0 earlier in the season. Taking out one of the teams that is featured prominently in the projections is not only a "must" but looks like Iowa is on a collision course to have at least one opportunity to do so.

Let's hope that the Hawks are riding high heading into the B1G tournament. Can't afford any type of letdown in Evanston this weekend.
 
From the Sun-Herald (Mississippi) on May 8th (Iowa not included):
http://www.sunherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/patrick-magee/article210656354.html
Projects (guesses/speculates) B1G gets Minnesota (1 seed; 15th overall); OSU (2 seed); Indiana (2 seed); Michigan (3 seed) and Purdue (4 seed). Note: Oklahoma State projected as a 1 seed (14th overall). Iowa's record against these teams is 8-6.

From College Sports Madness on May 7th (Iowa makes the field):
http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/16095
Projects the B1G with four teams (Minnesota, Indiana, Iowa and Michigan). Minnesota projected as a #2; Indiana projected as a #2; Iowa projected as a #3; Michigan projected as a #3. That written, it projects Iowa and Minnesota in the same regional (seems unlikely) and lists OSU as one of the first four out.

Looks like Baseball America hasn't updated its projections yet but they are due out today. According to writer Teddy Cahill, after Iowa's series win against Okie St., Iowa will no longer be the first team out:

d1 Baseball projections haven't been updated either; should be out today. Last projections (before Mizzou and Okie St. games) had Iowa as one of the final five teams getting in. I'll be curious to see where Iowa now projects in d1 Baseball's projections. In its last projection, Iowa was a #3, Missouri was a #2 and Okie State was a #1 seed (12th overall). Can't help but think that going 2-2 against a projected #1 and #2 - even if they were home games - will solidify Iowa's projection at d1 Baseball.

I'm of the belief that making the final four in the B1G tournament is as close to "necessary" as possible. Falling out early won't be the "message" that Iowa baseball needs to deliver. With that in mind, I can't help but feel as though getting into the 4/5 game would be extremely helpful. Indiana is only 1/2 game back and its schedule, like Iowa's, isn't exactly daunting. I think that Iowa would be helped by Illinois having a rough run against Michigan and Nebraska along with Ohio State stumbling against Michigan State and Purdue. Given the head-to-head match-ups (Ohio State plays Purdue), I just don't see how Iowa can sneak into the 3 spot even if it were to sweep NW and PSU. Looks like #4 is about the best Iowa can get; a #5 seed is entirely possible. That very likely would set up a first round game against either OSU, Indiana or Illinois. Will need Allgeyer's "A" game. A first round win would likely set up a second round game against Minnesota (I think that they will win the conference regular season). Schanuel would pitch and he lost to Minnesota 3-0 earlier in the season. Taking out one of the teams that is featured prominently in the projections is not only a "must" but looks like Iowa is on a collision course to have at least one opportunity to do so.

Let's hope that the Hawks are riding high heading into the B1G tournament. Can't afford any type of letdown in Evanston this weekend.
Kendall Rogers from D1 Baseball is higher on Iowa's chances than most.



 
From the Sun-Herald (Mississippi) on May 8th (Iowa not included):
http://www.sunherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/patrick-magee/article210656354.html
Projects (guesses/speculates) B1G gets Minnesota (1 seed; 15th overall); OSU (2 seed); Indiana (2 seed); Michigan (3 seed) and Purdue (4 seed). Note: Oklahoma State projected as a 1 seed (14th overall). Iowa's record against these teams is 8-6.

From College Sports Madness on May 7th (Iowa makes the field):
http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/16095
Projects the B1G with four teams (Minnesota, Indiana, Iowa and Michigan). Minnesota projected as a #2; Indiana projected as a #2; Iowa projected as a #3; Michigan projected as a #3. That written, it projects Iowa and Minnesota in the same regional (seems unlikely) and lists OSU as one of the first four out.

Looks like Baseball America hasn't updated its projections yet but they are due out today. According to writer Teddy Cahill, after Iowa's series win against Okie St., Iowa will no longer be the first team out:

d1 Baseball projections haven't been updated either; should be out today. Last projections (before Mizzou and Okie St. games) had Iowa as one of the final five teams getting in. I'll be curious to see where Iowa now projects in d1 Baseball's projections. In its last projection, Iowa was a #3, Missouri was a #2 and Okie State was a #1 seed (12th overall). Can't help but think that going 2-2 against a projected #1 and #2 - even if they were home games - will solidify Iowa's projection at d1 Baseball.

I'm of the belief that making the final four in the B1G tournament is as close to "necessary" as possible. Falling out early won't be the "message" that Iowa baseball needs to deliver. With that in mind, I can't help but feel as though getting into the 4/5 game would be extremely helpful. Indiana is only 1/2 game back and its schedule, like Iowa's, isn't exactly daunting. I think that Iowa would be helped by Illinois having a rough run against Michigan and Nebraska along with Ohio State stumbling against Michigan State and Purdue. Given the head-to-head match-ups (Ohio State plays Purdue), I just don't see how Iowa can sneak into the 3 spot even if it were to sweep NW and PSU. Looks like #4 is about the best Iowa can get; a #5 seed is entirely possible. That very likely would set up a first round game against either OSU, Indiana or Illinois. Will need Allgeyer's "A" game. A first round win would likely set up a second round game against Minnesota (I think that they will win the conference regular season). Schanuel would pitch and he lost to Minnesota 3-0 earlier in the season. Taking out one of the teams that is featured prominently in the projections is not only a "must" but looks like Iowa is on a collision course to have at least one opportunity to do so.

Let's hope that the Hawks are riding high heading into the B1G tournament. Can't afford any type of letdown in Evanston this weekend.

Wouldn't it be AWESOME if Western Iowa shows up big time in Omaha for the B1G Tournament?

Nice post. Yeah, unfortunately I think we have to sweep our next 7 reg season games and win at least a couple BTT games to make the NCAA's.

Its been a fun season so far, especially considering all the injuries. Hopefully the fun continues!
 
Wouldn't it be AWESOME if Western Iowa shows up big time in Omaha for the B1G Tournament?

Nice post. Yeah, unfortunately I think we have to sweep our next 7 reg season games and win at least a couple BTT games to make the NCAA's.

Its been a fun season so far, especially considering all the injuries. Hopefully the fun continues!
“Have to” seems a little strong. It seems that would almost certainly get them in. Much less than that, and they’d be sweating, if I had to guess?
 
The boys at D1 Baseball did a chat today and this was their response to an Iowa question:

It was a strong series win for their postseason chances because it goes down as a marquee series win, but Iowa’s RPI actually dropped a little bit. I think the weekend was absolutely a net gain, though. the RPI at 50 concerns me a little, and the Hawkeyes need to make sure the conference record is strong. But they should pad that record the final two weekends of league play. I think they get in at this point. They’ve got some really, really nice series wins, and they can really hit.
 
I think a 3rd or 4th place finish in league play, 8 wins against the top 50, a strong SOS, and series wins over @ Illinois, tOSU, Michigan, Oklahoma State, and a split with Indiana will be enough to overcome their low RPI. A win or two in the B1G tourney would be icing on the cake.
 
I think a 3rd or 4th place finish in league play, 8 wins against the top 50, a strong SOS, and series wins over @ Illinois, tOSU, Michigan, Oklahoma State, and a split with Indiana will be enough to overcome their low RPI. A win or two in the B1G tourney would be icing on the cake.

I don’t see a viable road to 3rd place. Purdue (3rd Place) and OSU (4th Place) play one another.
 
I don’t see a viable road to 3rd place. Purdue (3rd Place) and OSU (4th Place) play one another.
I posted this in another thread. Iowa can get to 3rd and its really not that crazy to think the following could happen:

Iowa should play their way up the B1G standings the last 2 weeks as well. There is a pretty realistic chance they could finish as high as 3rd if Iowa wins out to finish 15-7 and:
Purdue goes 1-2 @ tOSU and 1-2 vs MICH to finish 15-8
tOSU goes 2-1 vs Purdue and 3-0 vs MSU to finish 16-8*
Illinois goes 2-1 vs MICH and 3-0 vs Nebby to finish 16-8*
Indiana can win out to finish 15-8


*Iowa should hold the tiebreaker with tOSU and Illinois via Iowa winning both of those series. Caveat: I have no idea what the tiebreaker criteria actually is.
 
Wouldn't it be AWESOME if Western Iowa shows up big time in Omaha for the B1G Tournament?

Nice post. Yeah, unfortunately I think we have to sweep our next 7 reg season games and win at least a couple BTT games to make the NCAA's.

Its been a fun season so far, especially considering all the injuries. Hopefully the fun continues!

The door is open for that to happen if Nebraska doesn't make the field (that would be awesome of the case). I don't think Iowa needs to sweep the next 7. Going 4-3 or 3-4 would be a problem I think. Best thing they can do is win both Big Ten series (5-1 or better would be ideal) then win 2 games in the BTT.
 
Why not just win the Big 10 Baseball Tournament again like last year and then no worries about the bubble?

I'm good with that. It's exciting that Iowa is in a place where they wouldn't HAVE to get in the BTT to get in. Relying on winning a tournament is threading the needle. So many things can happen and one bad bounce can knock you out.
 
Baseball America has Iowa solidly in after this weekend playing in Oxford against Ole Miss, Tennessee Tech, and Yale.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/college-baseball-projected-field-of-64-5918/

That would be an interesting regional. Tennessee Tech is 41-6 and probably worthy of being a regional #1. However, they don't have the facilities to host. So they will probably be delegated to a #2. Now every great once and a while you have seen a #1 have to go on the road to a host #2 regional. Not too often though.

By the way as of today, Iowa's RPI is now 47.
 
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Excellent, just win Hawks! The simple fact of having these baseball postseason conversations is a huge win compared to where we were 5-10 years ago. If Iowa makes Regionals this year for the 3rd year in a row, would that be a record for Iowa Baseball?

We'd have to make it this year and next for three years in a row. I'd be ok with that.

We made it in 2015 and 2017 under Heller so far.

Iowa's only tournament appearances are 1972, 1975, 1990, 2015, and 2017.
 
That would be an interesting regional. Tennessee Tech is 41-6 and probably worthy of being a regional #1. However, they don't have the facilities to host. So they will probably be delegated to a #2. Now every great once and a while you have seen a #1 have to go on the road to a host #2 regional. Not too often though.

By the way as of today, Iowa's RPI is now 47.
Looking at the RPIs, it sure would be nice if Illinois (55) could get back into the top 50, Michigan (46) stays there, and Va Tech (107) and Nebby (113) get into the top 100.

That might be difficult because Illinois finishes @ Mich and vs Nebby. Mich likely drops to 51 if they lose to MSU today. Va Tech has a series against UNC (3) to end the season. Would a win there be enough to push them up 10 spots?

Bradley (66) has a series against Dallas Baptist (38). A sweep might get them closer to that 50 line too.
 
Baseball America has Iowa solidly in after this weekend playing in Oxford against Ole Miss, Tennessee Tech, and Yale.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/college-baseball-projected-field-of-64-5918/

Baseball America has Iowa in the field and it is not a "final four in." It might, however, be in the "final five in" or "final six in." Just can't tell. A loss to Northwestern this weekend could very well result in Iowa dropping to either "final four in" or "first four out."
 
Both BA and d1 Baseball have Iowa playing Tennessee Tech in the respective regional. Given that Tennessee Tech could be one of the highest rated #2s, it follows that Iowa is one the lower #3s. Not among the last five in but probably not much above that.
 
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I'd like to avoid Chapel Hill. UNC didn't make it out of their regional last year. I don't see that happening again this year.
 
Just having these things be possible is great, iowa baseball is a great product right now
 
I'd like to avoid Chapel Hill. UNC didn't make it out of their regional last year. I don't see that happening again this year.

Yes ideally Iowa wouldn't be there, but I would take just getting in and playing anyone right now. Any of the host teams are going to be really good and tough opponents. Okie State is a projected regional host and Iowa abused their pitching to the tune of 33 runs in 3 games.
 
Excellent, just win Hawks! The simple fact of having these baseball postseason conversations is a huge win compared to where we were 5-10 years ago. If Iowa makes Regionals this year for the 3rd year in a row, would that be a record for Iowa Baseball?

As others have said, can't get to 3 years this year. If Iowa makes it this year, it would be 2 straight years and 3 of 4. Iowa has never made it 2 years in a row.
 
FWIW, OSU’s RPI drops 6 spots after losing to RPI #118 Campbell yesterday. Campbell has a 17-4 conference record in Big South.

Iowa now sits at #49 ...
 
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