These points add up to a win against Michigan....

hawx

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I see our best case scenario is trying to bore them to death in the first half to keep it within a touchdown. Then they outscore us by two TDs in the second half to easily cover once the defense runs out of steam due to our awful time of possession.. Iowa offense will account for a field goal and a touchdown (if our D hands them a free starting in the redzone possession). So by my math we lose 41-10.

Brian/Spencer- Please prove me wrong. Please.
 

fezzador

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Ah.
I really don't think so at this point.
The playcalling really makes sense at times if you see it.
I think the true purpose of the offense is partly what was stated there, and partly what HawkDoggy said.

Iowa has a 'ball control' offense. One thing you see about many Iowa games, is that if Iowa plays at say 2:30, and Oklahoma State also has a game at 2:30, the Iowa game will be over between 5:30 and 5:45; while the OK State game just started the 4th quarter. Iowa's passing stats are abysmal, but much of that is on purpose - fans are rightly critical of Petras, but also doesn't fling the ball much more than 15-20 times a game (he threw the ball all of 17 times against Rutgers). Many D1 QBs toss the pigskin 35, 40, or even 50 times per outing. If Petras threw the ball 35 times a game he'd have more passing yards, more touchdowns (and probably a few more picks) but 225/390 with 3100 passing yards, 24 TDs, and 14 picks sure as hell looks more respectable than 130/235 with 1700 passing yards, 11 TDs and 9 picks.

Iowa rarely snaps the ball over 70 times a game, in fact, 55-65 is a standard day in the office. Iowa's offensive identity has been the ground game forever, while much of the rest of college football has shifted their focus to the pass. However, the problem with this is that Iowa's run game hasn't been anything special - it hasn't been since Shonn Greene to be honest. I do like what we're seeing with Kaleb and Leshon, but the jury is still out. Defenses are still daring Iowa to throw and even with slightly improved pass protection, Petras still struggles with pocket awareness and doesn't always recognize the open receiver. He's not taking as many sacks thankfully, but the passes are still either incomplete, or short of the sticks. Petras also has started to tuck and run a bit, but while he is getting some positive yardage he's still 10 feet shy of the sticks. He needs to use his big, long body to his advantage. He should be able to shake off tacklers better than he is.

At any rate, the Iowa coaching staff would be utter fools to not make it their goal to get at least *some* points on every possession. The offense relies on defense and special teams to give the other offense poor field position, and to give their own offense short fields to increase the chances of scoring. They run the ball 2/3 of the time because it eats clock much more effectively than a pass-happy offense, and therefore can give their defense more time to rest up for the next series. And even if the drive ends in no points, if Iowa starts at their own 20 and stalls at their own 45, that would indicate a couple of first downs and several minutes off the clock, and in prime position to pin the other offense deep.

And Iowa needs to figure something out on 3rd down. They are horrible at converting on offense, and are giving up too many 3rd down conversions on defense. The former is a much bigger problem, but the latter is a concern - we really don't want our defense out on the field for many 10+ play drives.
 

Hawk-A-Doodle-Doo

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Neither team has faced a murderer's row of opponents so far. But the gap between Iowa's comically bad offense and Michigan's defense is so monumental, and the gap between Iowa's D and Michigan's O so small that it makes Ol' Doodle feel like we're in an "Avengers Endgame" situation where there's literally ONE path to victory...which would be a multiverse of turnovers and some strange special teams magic. Because frankly, the iron men of our #1 scoring defense are much more likely to snap under the gauntlet of Michigan's #2 scoring offense, than Michigan's hulking #7 scoring defense is vs. the low key #119 Hawkeye scoring offense. Sorry if this is a thorn in your side or causes any fury. Ol' Doodle wants to remain optimistic that we'll come out like a rocket...but at this point Doodle just can't man.
 

pistachio1999

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Neither team has faced a murderer's row of opponents so far. But the gap between Iowa's comically bad offense and Michigan's defense is so monumental, and the gap between Iowa's D and Michigan's O so small that it makes Ol' Doodle feel like we're in an "Avengers Endgame" situation where there's literally ONE path to victory...which would be a multiverse of turnovers and some strange special teams magic. Because frankly, the iron men of our #1 scoring defense are much more likely to snap under the gauntlet of Michigan's #2 scoring offense, than Michigan's hulking #7 scoring defense is vs. the low key #119 Hawkeye scoring offense. Sorry if this is a thorn in your side or causes any fury. Ol' Doodle wants to remain optimistic that we'll come out like a rocket...but at this point Doodle just can't man.
Average defensive rating of Michigan's first four opponents (all at home) is 110.

The three teams in our level Iowa has played ranked 14 ; 7 & 102 in defense.
 
Last edited:
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I am really surprised that Iowa fans are not focusing on the most likely path to an upset. As talented as JJ McCarthy is, he is still a young QB who for the first time is feeling the pressure of being the starting QB. Much of Michigan's struggles were bad decisions made by him. Iowa's offense is a tire fire. Beyond Nevada there are only 2 TD's scored by the offense. Rutgers is still the probable doormat of the Big10 East. The path to an upset is to go 3 and out and wait for a big mistake that snowballs into more and more and more. Then let the home magic do its thing. Harbaugh made a choice to go with the higher ceiling verses the higher floor. A steady QB like McNamara is perfectly content to check down and live with punts until a break goes his way. McCarthy is going to be tempted to force it.

Caveat that a couple more skill players are back, but if Iowa is unable to drive on SDSU, Iowa St, or Rutgers, expecting more then 10 points from the offense is a pipe dream. Just as a QB can carry a team, a QB can take it down.
 

83Hawk

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I am really surprised that Iowa fans are not focusing on the most likely path to an upset. As talented as JJ McCarthy is, he is still a young QB who for the first time is feeling the pressure of being the starting QB. Much of Michigan's struggles were bad decisions made by him. Iowa's offense is a tire fire. Beyond Nevada there are only 2 TD's scored by the offense. Rutgers is still the probable doormat of the Big10 East. The path to an upset is to go 3 and out and wait for a big mistake that snowballs into more and more and more. Then let the home magic do its thing. Harbaugh made a choice to go with the higher ceiling verses the higher floor. A steady QB like McNamara is perfectly content to check down and live with punts until a break goes his way. McCarthy is going to be tempted to force it.

Caveat that a couple more skill players are back, but if Iowa is unable to drive on SDSU, Iowa St, or Rutgers, expecting more then 10 points from the offense is a pipe dream. Just as a QB can carry a team, a QB can take it down.
I despise the “wait for the other team to make a big mistake” strategy. If the other team doesn’t make one, then you’re screwed.

And if Iowa makes one, then the other team needs to make two.
 
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kceasthawk

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This is just sad….…that we are reduced to:

1. Hoping the offense can get to midfield.
2. Hoping our punter pins the opponent deep.
3. Needing the defense to make a stop or get a turnover.

Most teams expect the offense to score points. Not Iowa. We either need the defense to score, or hope the other team makes mistakes in order to win.

Sad.
I agree to a point, BUT IF Michigan is in FACT a top 5 team and as good as they were last year, how many teams would realistically think that going into the game they would win barring a timely turnover or some other help to get an edge? Be honest here. Yes, upsets happen and certain'y Iowa has been involved in quite a few under KF, BUT we're talking about expectations before the game is played Should Iowa or ANY other team in the BIG not named OSU expect to win without things going their way?

I believe that the early line was Michigan by 10.5 on the road. Clearly Vegas thinks that the bettors expect M to win handily....