This is the first year I've thought ISU had a better team preseason this millennium

[rainydayhawk]

Of course, I was right that Iowa had a better team almost all of those years.

Honestly, it's very close to a tossup on paper, but I have to give Iowa State a slight edge after looking at how we match up position by position.

QB: Stanley might be a better pro prospect, but based on last year, Purdy is the better college QB. Purdy was quite a bit more accurate than Stanley last year, and he's also shown that he can make plays with his feet in a way that Stanley can't. The stats support this opinion: Purdy had a a 172.7 rating last year and Stanley had a 135.2.

Advantage: ISU

RB: I think this is a wash. I like both Sargent and Nwangwu -- Nwangwu's faster, but I think Sargent is better at running between the tackles. Nwaungwu is obviously a step down from Montgomery, but that's not saying much given how good Montgomery was. Iowa does have a little bit more proven depth here, but I still think it's about even.

Advantage: Even

WR: Surprisingly, I think this is even this year as well, as this is the only position ISU's had a consistent advantage in in the modern era. It's worth noting that Smith-Marsette has given ISU a few issues both of the last two years, and now he'll be facing less tested corners. ISU has some good young talent based on recruiting rankings, though.

Advantage: Even

TE: In another interesting reversal, ISU is actually better at tight end. Chase Allen was All-Big 12 two years ago (granted, the Big 12's not big on tight end) and Kolar is a huge target that's also very effective as a receiver. Iowa is typically good here, but what we have is almost totally unproven.

Advantage: ISU

OL: Clear advantage for Iowa here with two future NFL tackles, although I believe ISU is slated to start three seniors.

Offensive line has been the weakest position group for Iowa State since Campbell's gotten there, and in year four, it's put up or shut up time to a significant extent now that they don't have Montgomery, who was able to make plays by himself in the run game. Given how good Montgomery was, it was indicative of the quality of Iowa State's run blocking that he only averaged 4.7 a carry last year. Ramos and Downing were well thought of recruits that are now showing up in the two deep as redshirt freshmen for Iowa State.

DL: This might be the most controversial position group, but I think Iowa State is clearly better going into the year. Lima's a very good DT that I hoped would be attractive enough to the NFL to leave early, and there's not that much dropoff with his backup, Jamahl Johnson. Their defensive ends are athletic and good against the run. They don't have an elite passrusher, but Bailey's good enough to need to be accounted for, and ISU's had some success over the last two years getting pressure with just three (although, to be fair, not against our tackles).

Meanwhile, Iowa has the best single player in Epenesa, a player that's shown a lot of flashes in Gholston and two seniors at DT -- but those two seniors haven't exactly impressed when they've played, which is why Iowa State has the advantage.

Advantage: ISU

LB: Pretty clear advantage for ISU here. They return an all-Big 12 LB in Spears and Mike Rose, who had an impressive freshman year.

Advantage: ISU

DB: Iowa probably has the advantage here, but this isn't exactly a strong position group for us. Though Iowa returns more experience at corner, the position is a question mark for both teams. Both Eisworth and Stone are good safeties.

Advantage: Iowa

With advantages at QB, TE, DL and LB (versus OL and DB for Iowa), I have to give an edge to Iowa State next year on a neutral field. Of course, it's at Jack Trice, which provides ISU an additional advantage. My way too early prediction would be Iowa State by six.

 

[FranklinHawk]

This feel awfully ISU slanted, particularly when I see Even because "ISU has some good young talent based on recruiting rankings".

 

[InsaneHawkJJP]

Let’s see who will feed you.....

 

[doughuddl2]

 

[cmhawks99]

Of course, I was right that Iowa had a better team almost all of those years.

Honestly, it's very close to a tossup on paper, but I have to give Iowa State a slight edge after looking at how we match up position by position.

QB: Stanley might be a better pro prospect, but based on last year, Purdy is the better college QB. Purdy was quite a bit more accurate than Stanley last year, and he's also shown that he can make plays with his feet in a way that Stanley can't. The stats support this opinion: Purdy had a a 172.7 rating last year and Stanley had a 135.2.

Advantage: ISU

RB: I think this is a wash. I like both Sargent and Nwangwu -- Nwangwu's faster, but I think Sargent is better at running between the tackles. Nwaungwu is obviously a step down from Montgomery, but that's not saying much given how good Montgomery was. Iowa does have a little bit more proven depth here, but I still think it's about even.

Advantage: Even

WR: Surprisingly, I think this is even this year as well, as this is the only position ISU's had a consistent advantage in in the modern era. It's worth noting that Smith-Marsette has given ISU a few issues both of the last two years, and now he'll be facing less tested corners. ISU has some good young talent based on recruiting rankings, though.

Advantage: Even

TE: In another interesting reversal, ISU is actually better at tight end. Chase Allen was All-Big 12 two years ago (granted, the Big 12's not big on tight end) and Kolar is a huge target that's also very effective as a receiver. Iowa is typically good here, but what we have is almost totally unproven.

Advantage: ISU

OL: Clear advantage for Iowa here with two future NFL tackles, although I believe ISU is slated to start three seniors.

Offensive line has been the weakest position group for Iowa State since Campbell's gotten there, and in year four, it's put up or shut up time to a significant extent now that they don't have Montgomery, who was able to make plays by himself in the run game. Given how good Montgomery was, it was indicative of the quality of Iowa State's run blocking that he only averaged 4.7 a carry last year. Ramos and Downing were well thought of recruits that are now showing up in the two deep as redshirt freshmen for Iowa State.

DL: This might be the most controversial position group, but I think Iowa State is clearly better going into the year. Lima's a very good DT that I hoped would be attractive enough to the NFL to leave early, and there's not that much dropoff with his backup, Jamahl Johnson. Their defensive ends are athletic and good against the run. They don't have an elite passrusher, but Bailey's good enough to need to be accounted for, and ISU's had some success over the last two years getting pressure with just three (although, to be fair, not against our tackles).

Meanwhile, Iowa has the best single player in Epenesa, a player that's shown a lot of flashes in Gholston and two seniors at DT -- but those two seniors haven't exactly impressed when they've played, which is why Iowa State has the advantage.

Advantage: ISU

LB: Pretty clear advantage for ISU here. They return an all-Big 12 LB in Spears and Mike Rose, who had an impressive freshman year.

Advantage: ISU

DB: Iowa probably has the advantage here, but this isn't exactly a strong position group for us. Though Iowa returns more experience at corner, the position is a question mark for both teams. Both Eisworth and Stone are good safeties.

Advantage: Iowa

With advantages at QB, TE, DL and LB (versus OL and DB for Iowa), I have to give an edge to Iowa State next year on a neutral field. Of course, it's at Jack Trice, which provides ISU an additional advantage. My way too early prediction would be Iowa State by six.

I’m not going to do a long breakdown with you outside of this....Real talent always goes to the next level. I’m not much of a betting man but I’ll make a small wager. At the end of the next 5 years, of the kids Iowa St currently has & Iowa has, Iowa will put bare minimum 3 times as many OLs, TEs, Lbers, DLs & Dbs in the NFL than Iowa St.

I’ll even go a step further I bet Iowa has at the very least five or six defensive backs in the program that will eventually play in the NFL. I bet they have at least three or four linebackers already in the program that will eventually play in the NFL and I bet they have five or six defensive linemen already in the program that will play in the NFL...

 

[anon_8rcdnbko1jbe0]

The biggest flaw for the OP is taking stats that are generated against B10 and B12 defenses. ISU is building I agree. But OPs comparison is flawed especially in offensive stats.

 

[FranklinHawk]

The biggest flaw for the OP is taking stats that are generated against B10 and B12 defenses. ISU is building I agree. But OPs comparison is flawed especially in offensive stats.

Agreed. All Big 12 TE is like being the only 2 legged man in an ass kicking contest.

 

[cmhawks99]

Honestly a better way to do it would probably be who start for us defensively that’ll give you a clearer picture....

Lima would start for us, Rose would and Ellsworth most likely. Spears might....but some of our fans are strangely negative on what was a very young but still solid Lber room. We have 6ish who have already logged starters reps and Colbert is a future stud. I also think Niemann has NFL potential and Welch is no slouch. Point being there is no way Iowa State has eight capable linebackers like I think we do...

There is no way they have six guys who have already started games at CB, they do not have a defensive backfield player like Geno Stone...

I’m not sure they have one offensive linemen that would start and that includes Julian good Jones who is decent...

I like their two young running back recruits better than any running back they currently have on the roster. I think they’re wide receivers are probably still better just because they always have been...I will bet you dollars to donuts Shawn Beyer plays in the NFL and Chase Allen doesn’t....so honestly no I don’t see it being even close to what you’re suggesting.


That doesn’t in anyway shape or form suggest I’m guaranteeing a win, I most assuredly am not… And don’t go away I see you’re still viewing this thread defend your position?!

 

[hawktrooper1]

Cmhawks99 gets it.

Giving the TE position to Iowa State because they return two dudes who caught 19 balls last year? Yawn. Shaun Beyer would have caught more passes than all of Iowa State's TEs combined last year if not trapped behind two first round talents. Plus, Iowa kinda, ya know, recruits and develops that position better than anyone. Literally, give Iowa either of Iowa State's top two TEs and they may play in the NFL. Or... you know, they can sell insurance and talk about the 11 passes they caught in Ames one season.

 

[rainydayhawk]

Honestly a better way to do it would probably be who start for us defensively that’ll give you a clearer picture...

I think they have six players on D that would start for us: Bailey, Johnson, Lima, Rose, Spears and Eisworth.

Johnson was quite a bit better than either Lattimore or Reiff last year. Bailey over Gholston is somewhat debatable, but I'm giving the nod to Bailey because he's proven more at this level thus far in his career. I do like Gholston, though, and he could certainly end up having a better year than Bailey.

 

[Hawksofly101789]

Yawn....troll alert. I’ll guarantee the win this year by at least 10pts. Compare our defense compared to theirs not even a debate. Our O-line compared to theirs that is a joke. Stanley is the better QB. RB’s might be “better” then ours we’ll see.....and WR’s are normally more athletic then ours but Iowa actually has a deep WR stable this coming year soo I’m gonna stand by my guarantee Iowa walks away from this game by at least a 10pt margin.

 

[Hawktimism]

I actually thought this is a pretty honest evaluation of both teams. I'd disagree with some things slightly here and there but nothing that I could definitively say. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Hawks walk in to Ames as the betting underdog. Some of you need to step out of the echo-chamber every once and awhile.

 

[rainydayhawk]

Cmhawks99 gets it.

Giving the TE position to Iowa State because they return two dudes who caught 19 balls last year? Yawn. Shaun Beyer would have caught more passes than all of Iowa State's TEs combined last year if not trapped behind two first round talents. Plus, Iowa kinda, ya know, recruits and develops that position better than anyone. Literally, give Iowa either of Iowa State's top two TEs and they may play in the NFL. Or... you know, they can sell insurance and talk about the 11 passes they caught in Ames one season.

ISU actually has talented players at tight end -- and if you watched their games, you'd know exactly what I mean -- that will probably be underutilized again because of their system (also, Allen was hurt a lot of last year). That being said, how players get utilized matters, and I agree I should have added that in for context.

Beyer or Weiting haven't shown much at all yet, and I'm not going to take them just because of our history at the position.

 

[cmhawks99]

I think they have six players on D that would start for us: Bailey, Johnson, Lima, Rose, Spears and Eisworth.

Johnson was quite a bit better than either Lattimore or Reiff last year. Bailey over Gholston is somewhat debatable, but I'm giving the nod to Bailey because he's proven more at this level thus far in his career. I do like Gholston, though, and he could certainly end up having a better year than Bailey.

Are you sure you’re being fair considering Iowa State basically played six guys tops and Iowa played nine-ish, when you’re evaluating their play...

Also are you taking into account the difference in the rotations & depth...

We know Iowa State has a good defensive line of that you and I both agree...we had been concerned about our depth, but if we have the same sort of depth that we had last year & early indications by KF, Coach Bell and Coach Parker it appears we may...doesn’t that automatically make our defensive line better?!

Gholston, Eppy, Nelson (if healthy) and don’t laugh my experience of watching Iowa has showed me that when a freshman walk-on makes the depth chart in Spring he ends up being a good player. Van Valkenberg will be a good player or they wouldn’t have wasted a scholly on a transfer, Reiff, better than given credit, Lattimore, just inconsistent, Schulte healthy and 287 now...

This doesn’t count Wagoner or any other surprise stories that come out a fall camp.

I’m not as sold on Spears at 220 or Bailey being run at consistently. Something else I doubt you know and I only do because I am a pro day/NFL combine junkie. The theme over in the ISU camp and the big 12 camp in general is that yes they’re a little smaller but it’s because they’re faster. That is not even close to true... I will wager Spears is smaller and slower than most of our linebackers. I would wager across the board Iowa State’s defensive players are smaller and slower than ours and I know this to be true because it has been for the last 15+ years of cumulative pro day times...He has also started for multiple years...all of our guys last year were first year starters.

Rose on the other hand is a man and so is Lima. Actually I’m pretty impressed with Ellsworth as well...however they do not have near the depth we have… I am convinced this is the deepest Iowa defense we have had in my 40 years of watching Iowa football. I’m very excited about it!

 

[dadster]

Iowa State has some talent returning. So do the Hawks. As far as defense, it's a team effort and our best asset is coach Parker who will have his guys ready tp play. Offensively, even though we have a third year starter at QB, Nate will just be Nate. I think Purdy has the potential to put up some substantial numbers however not against our D. You have one advantage, home field and I don't think that's enough to give you the win this year.

 

[cmhawks99]

Iowa State has some talent returning. So do the Hawks. As far as defense, it's a team effort and our best asset is coach Parker who will have his guys ready tp play. Offensively, even though we have a third year starter at QB, Nate will just be Nate. I think Purdy has the potential to put up some substantial numbers however not against our D. You have one advantage, home field and I don't think that's enough to give you the win this year.

Good post but wasn’t Chuck Long “just Chuck” when we lost?

 

[Hawkeyeinsoutherncalifornia]

Love this lol

 

[BBHawk]

You lost me in your first head-to-head.

Name the last 2-year QB starter under Campbell that finished the season as a starter both years. There is a reason they don't last, and it isn't them. NO WAY IN HELL is Purdy better than Stanley, regardless where he is playing.

 

[CP84]

Yawn, both of the advanced metric systems, PFF and Sagarin, had Iowa finishing quite a bit higher last season than ISU.

Iowa's secondary might be the best it's been since we had two Thorpe finalists at corner. 247 projects Iowa's dline to be better than last year. I think you discount how much Daviyon Nixon and Noah Shannon will add.

QB to ISU is ridiculous. Yeah he had a decent passer rating in a poor defensive conference. He also was exposed vs Texas, benched vs Drake and threw 2 INTs vs Washington State, the #42 defense. Stanley also played half the season with a broken thumb and still threw 26 TDs including 3 TDs against the #1 defense in the country.

 

[rainydayhawk]

This feel awfully ISU slanted, particularly when I see Even because "ISU has some good young talent based on recruiting rankings".

That's not the reason that I think that receiver is even -- it's that the returning production is comparable and I honestly think Iowa's starters are probably more talented. Technically, Iowa State has more returning production, but they also play in a more uptempo conference.

I thought the fact that ISU had some good talent at WR according to recruiting rankings / offers was an interesting tidbit to look out for this year, so I threw it in at the end. I should have done a better job with that section.

Returning receiver production (just including the bigger contributors):

Iowa State:
Milton 34 catches, 417 yards, 1 TD
Jones 42 catches, 360 yards, 4 TDs
Eaton 26 catches , 293 yards, 2 TDs

Iowa:
Smith 25 catches, 328 yards, 2 TDs
Smitih-Marsette 19 catches, 332 yards, 2 TDs

 

[TC_Hawk]

 

[grayhair81]

So you were hoping Lima would opt for the NFL because he is so good. Why didn't he? Stud D linemen are in huge demand in the first two rounds of the draft every year. Are you thinking he turned down a 10 mil+ signing bonus because he loves Ames so much?
I might concede LB on two counts: Rose has shown to be a real player and Iowa's group didn't impress last year. They are all a year older, stronger, and more knowledgable this year. CM is right on perceived athleticism. Welch is actually damned quick for a guy his size. None of the guys Iowa puts out there at LB are short on athleticism. Recognition was their big problem last year.
Purdy had a better QB rating having only played a partial season. Iowa was the best defense they played last year. His numbers would not have looked like they did if he had played that game. The Hawks mauled both QBs they put on the field that night. Stanley had more yards and a better TD/INT ratio even playing real defenses.
LB is literally the only position group I would consider giving the nod to them. AJE and Golston are both better than anyone they have to put on the field. Lattimore is probably equal to Lima. Lima is the tallest midget-the best guy playing on what has been a crap unit.
How is ISU going to succeed without the best RB and WR in decades?
Hope this helps you sleep better.

 

[mikesright]

I could see a media member making these types of predictions for sure. However I don’t agree with much of the analysis.

First of all, Stanley is the better QB. Purdy really faltered down the stretch last year. He had a lot of completions where he threw it up to a dominant Hakeem Butler or got away with throwing into coverage. He also lucked out and didn’t face 3 of the toughest defenses/matchups on Iowa State’s schedule as well, Iowa, Oklahoma, TCU. The last 2 games of the regular season really exposed him even though they won. He even got benched in the Drake game. The only game he was truly outstanding in was Oklahoma State - and they didn’t have any film of him.

Second, Iowa has a much better secondary. It isn’t close - Hankins, Brents, and Stone are proven players among the best graded at their position in our league with ideal size, weight, speed, and technique. Its not a stretch to say that potentially Iowa has 2 lockdown corners this year as both were incredibly impressive young players. Stone is the best returning safety in the Big 10. Certainly ISU is no slouch. But they are no Iowa in this dept.

Third, look at matchups a little bit. Iowa is a bit stronger. You might say ISU has a better overall DL. However they just don’t have anyone who can overwhelm Iowa like we do on our DL. Good luck to Bailey, Johnson, Lima, Rose, and Spears in rushing the passer - we’ve got the best 2 tackle prospects for the NFL and while they did a good job of clogging running lanes last year, they were unable to rush the passer effectively.

Epenesa on the other hand destroyed them last year. They had even worse stats running the ball, and Epenesa got home repeatedly - forcing the ball out more quickly than they wanted, resulting in sacks, incompletions, and havok. Its possible to gameplan around that by chipping him with a TE or doubling him but then it is easier for Iowa to adjust with green dog blitzes and stunts, among other things.

Lastly, ISU is facing a huge negative in the running game. Montgomery was the type of player that ISU or really any other school cannot replace. He was able to keep his balance running through trash and he had the best vision I have ever seen from an ISU running back. He won’t be there to give Purdy nice 2nd and 3rd n shorts like last year out of nothing. ISU has not shown that it has any standout players on the OL yet. And while ISU has recruited RB seemingly well in the last class, they are completely brand new freshmen players. The other RBs on their roster aren’t anything special.

Given I’d expect some breakout players as usual given our success recently in recruiting and development, like Merriweather, Logan Lee, Waggoner, Nixon, and others, I expect a 10 point win in Ames this next year.

 

[CP84]

I could see a media member making these types of predictions for sure. However I don’t agree with much of the analysis.

First of all, Stanley is the better QB. Purdy really faltered down the stretch last year. He had a lot of completions where he threw it up to a dominant Hakeem Butler or got away with throwing into coverage. He also lucked out and didn’t face 3 of the toughest defenses/matchups on Iowa State’s schedule as well, Iowa, Oklahoma, TCU. The last 2 games of the regular season really exposed him even though they won. He even got benched in the Drake game. The only game he was truly outstanding in was Oklahoma State - and they didn’t have any film of him.

Second, Iowa has a much better secondary. It isn’t close - Hankins, Brents, and Stone are proven players among the best graded at their position in our league with ideal size, weight, speed, and technique. Its not a stretch to say that potentially Iowa has 2 lockdown corners this year as both were incredibly impressive young players. Stone is the best returning safety in the Big 10. Certainly ISU is no slouch. But they are no Iowa in this dept.

Third, look at matchups a little bit. Iowa is a bit stronger. You might say ISU has a better overall DL. However they just don’t have anyone who can overwhelm Iowa like we do on our DL. Good luck to Bailey, Johnson, Lima, Rose, and Spears in rushing the passer - we’ve got the best 2 tackle prospects for the NFL and while they did a good job of clogging running lanes last year, they were unable to rush the passer effectively.

Epenesa on the other hand destroyed them last year. They had even worse stats running the ball, and Epenesa got home repeatedly - forcing the ball out more quickly than they wanted, resulting in sacks, incompletions, and havok. Its possible to gameplan around that by chipping him with a TE or doubling him but then it is easier for Iowa to adjust with green dog blitzes and stunts, among other things.

Lastly, ISU is facing a huge negative in the running game. Montgomery was the type of player that ISU or really any other school cannot replace. He was able to keep his balance running through trash and he had the best vision I have ever seen from an ISU running back. He won’t be there to give Purdy nice 2nd and 3rd n shorts like last year out of nothing. ISU has not shown that it has any standout players on the OL yet. And while ISU has recruited RB seemingly well in the last class, they are completely brand new freshmen players. The other RBs on their roster aren’t anything special.

Given I’d expect some breakout players as usual given our success recently in recruiting and development, like Merriweather, Logan Lee, Waggoner, Nixon, and others, I expect a 10 point win in Ames this next year.

Oklahoma was not a good defense either.

He did miss two of the respectable defenses in TCU and Iowa. The Big 12 is just down now.

TCU, OSU, KSU, TTU and Baylor were previously good but last year were all average to bad.

 

[grayhair81]

Oklahoma was not a good defense either.

He did miss two of the respectable defenses in TCU and Iowa. The Big 12 is just down now.

TCU, OSU, KSU, TTU and Baylor were previously good but last year were all average to bad.

Oklahoma had the worst passing defense in all of FBS last year.

 

[rainydayhawk]

Iowa's secondary might be the best it's been since we had two Thorpe finalists at corner. 247 projects Iowa's dline to be better than last year.

Assuming you're referring to 2016, I think you're insane. In 2017, we had the Thorpe winner and Amani at safety. This year's secondary would really have to overachieve to top that.

QB to ISU is ridiculous. Yeah he had a decent passer rating in a poor defensive conference. He also was exposed vs Texas, benched vs Drake and threw 2 INTs vs Washington State, the #42 defense. Stanley also played half the season with a broken thumb and still threw 26 TDs including 3 TDs against the #1 defense in the country.

You're cherrypicking and that can obviously go both ways. Stanley had really rough games last year as well -- Penn State comes to mind (even before he hurt his hand). The stats say Brock was better last year, and I'd say he impressed by the eye test last year too -- especially for a true freshman.

 

[CP84]

Assuming you're referring to 2016, I think you're insane. In 2017, we had the Thorpe winner and Amani at safety. This year's secondary would really have to overachieve to top that.



You're cherrypicking and that can obviously go both ways. Stanley had really rough games last year as well -- Penn State comes to mind (even before he hurt his hand). The stats say Brock was better last year, and I'd say he impressed by the eye test last year too -- especially for a true freshman.

Lmfao, Stanley broke his throwing hand thumb against Penn State. Before he broke it they were playing in the rain and McSorely couldn't do anything either. He was 11/25 passing that game.

Go over to CF troll. You seem to be going out of your way to convince us that an 8 win team from a bad conference is great.

The stats say Brock was better last year? Look how many 50/50 deep balls he completed to Butler against bad defenses. Put Brock against Wisconsin, Nortwestern, PSU, Mississippi St., rather than the sisters of the poor and then let's talk. Even Maryland's offense ran all over Texas.

 

[mikesright]

Oklahoma was not a good defense either.

He did miss two of the respectable defenses in TCU and Iowa. The Big 12 is just down now.

TCU, OSU, KSU, TTU and Baylor were previously good but last year were all average to bad.

I don’t disagree that Oklahoma had a bad defense. However Oklahoma has athletes that give you problems, and then on top of that you find yourself in an efficiency/explosiveness battle with Oklahoma’s offense. That makes players with a profile like Purdy ripe for making big mistakes.

 

[rainydayhawk]

I could see a media member making these types of predictions for sure. However I don’t agree with much of the analysis.

First of all, Stanley is the better QB. Purdy really faltered down the stretch last year. He had a lot of completions where he threw it up to a dominant Hakeem Butler or got away with throwing into coverage. He also lucked out and didn’t face 3 of the toughest defenses/matchups on Iowa State’s schedule as well, Iowa, Oklahoma, TCU. The last 2 games of the regular season really exposed him even though they won. He even got benched in the Drake game. The only game he was truly outstanding in was Oklahoma State - and they didn’t have any film of him.

Second, Iowa has a much better secondary. It isn’t close - Hankins, Brents, and Stone are proven players among the best graded at their position in our league with ideal size, weight, speed, and technique. Its not a stretch to say that potentially Iowa has 2 lockdown corners this year as both were incredibly impressive young players. Stone is the best returning safety in the Big 10. Certainly ISU is no slouch. But they are no Iowa in this dept.

Third, look at matchups a little bit. Iowa is a bit stronger. You might say ISU has a better overall DL. However they just don’t have anyone who can overwhelm Iowa like we do on our DL. Good luck to Bailey, Johnson, Lima, Rose, and Spears in rushing the passer - we’ve got the best 2 tackle prospects for the NFL and while they did a good job of clogging running lanes last year, they were unable to rush the passer effectively.

Epenesa on the other hand destroyed them last year. They had even worse stats running the ball, and Epenesa got home repeatedly - forcing the ball out more quickly than they wanted, resulting in sacks, incompletions, and havok. Its possible to gameplan around that by chipping him with a TE or doubling him but then it is easier for Iowa to adjust with green dog blitzes and stunts, among other things.

Lastly, ISU is facing a huge negative in the running game. Montgomery was the type of player that ISU or really any other school cannot replace. He was able to keep his balance running through trash and he had the best vision I have ever seen from an ISU running back. He won’t be there to give Purdy nice 2nd and 3rd n shorts like last year out of nothing. ISU has not shown that it has any standout players on the OL yet. And while ISU has recruited RB seemingly well in the last class, they are completely brand new freshmen players. The other RBs on their roster aren’t anything special.

Given I’d expect some breakout players as usual given our success recently in recruiting and development, like Merriweather, Logan Lee, Waggoner, Nixon, and others, I expect a 10 point win in Ames this next year.

The Epenesa matchup is definitely a big problem for them, but based on how Good-Jones performed at left tackle last year, I don't think Epenesa will be able to completely overwhelm him the way he did Foster. Epenesa will obviously make an impact on the game, though.

I agree that ISU's ability to run block is a big question mark.

I obviously disagree on Purdy. He did falter somewhat down the stretch, but he still had a very solid year overall, and I thought he showed a lot of promise for a true freshman. His mobility really has a lot of value at the college level, and again, the stats indicate that he's substantially more accurate than Stanley -- which matches what I saw when watching the games. Stanley does have a bigger arm, though.

I disagree to some extent on our secondary. Brents had a promising year last year but is obviously still raw -- I can't say my confidence in him is there yet. Hankins is a decent corner that can struggle against speed. Stone is definitely the most proven guy we have.

 

[kceasthawk]

ISU actually has talented players at tight end -- and if you watched their games, you'd know exactly what I mean -- that will probably be underutilized again because of their system (also, Allen was hurt a lot of last year). That being said, how players get utilized matters, and I agree I should have added that in for context.

Beyer or Weiting haven't shown much at all yet, and I'm not going to take them just because of our history at the position.

Just FYI. Every TE who has started at Iowa under KF has been drafted or at least picked up as a free agent in the NFL. Yes, I said every, even a guy,(Eric Jensen) who was a converted fullback. If Beyer and Weiting start for Iowa they are the real deal, and basically the way they are used in Iowa's system ensures that they will be successful, and put up better numbers then most college TE's.

 

[mikesright]

Assuming you're referring to 2016, I think you're insane. In 2017, we had the Thorpe winner and Amani at safety. This year's secondary would really have to overachieve to top that.



You're cherrypicking and that can obviously go both ways. Stanley had really rough games last year as well -- Penn State comes to mind (even before he hurt his hand). The stats say Brock was better last year, and I'd say he impressed by the eye test last year too -- especially for a true freshman.

These were the stats Purdy put up last year:

18 comp/23 att, 318 yds 4 TD/1 INT - Oklahoma St - #112 total D
18/25, 254 yds 3 TD/1 INT - West Virginia - #74 total D
13/27, 250 yds 2 TD/0 INT - Texas Tech - #108 total D
16/23, 263 yds 3 TD/0 INT - Kansas - #81 total D (bottom 3 team in FBS)
18/23, 230 yds 1 TD/0 INT - Baylor - #85 total D
10/23, 130 yds 0 TD/1 INT - Texas - #67 total D
20/27, 337 yds 2 TD/2 INT - Kansas St - #71 total D
15/22, 153 yds, 1 TD/0 INT - Drake - Non scholarship FCS
18/27, 315 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT - Wash St - #42 total D

Trends:

*Faced only one top 50 defense and only 2/9 were top #71 and only 4/9 were top 81!
*Deteriorating stats after Kansas
*0 TD and 3 INT against the 2 best defenses faced
*2 of last 4 games played threw for less than 153 yds.

Iowa was #7 in total defense last year for the record.

 

[Iowa555]

Non-homer honest analysis from an Iowa State fan:

1.) Bailey (DE), Lima (DT), Euwazurike (DT), Spears (LB), Rose (LB) Eisworth (SS), Young (CB) would all start for Iowa on defense. Iowa States front 7 is one of the best in the country which sounds so strange to say.
2.) Stanley is a better fit for Iowa. Purdy is a better fit for Iowa State. Such different styles impossible to claim one has the edge over the other.
3.) Iowa has the edge at RB. More proven players there. Iowa State has a couple of highly touted freshman on the way however.
4.) More talk about Chase Allen than Charlie Kolar. Kolar is widely considered the best NFL prospect on Iowa States roster. Iowa State will drastically change their offense to incorporate TE this year. Iowa is tight end U. I'm sure they have some horses waiting in the stable waiting to be introduced to the country.
5.) Iowas O-line could be special. Both tackles just absolute monsters.

 

[cmhawks99]

The Epenesa matchup is definitely a big problem for them, but based on how Good-Jones performed at left tackle last year, I don't think Epenesa will be able to completely overwhelm him the way he did Foster. Epenesa will obviously make an impact on the game, though.

I agree that ISU's ability to run block is a big question mark.

I obviously disagree on Purdy. He did falter somewhat down the stretch, but he still had a very solid year overall, and I thought he showed a lot of promise for a true freshman. His mobility really has a lot of value at the college level, and again, the stats indicate that he's substantially more accurate than Stanley -- which matches what I saw when watching the games. Stanley does have a bigger arm, though.

I disagree to some extent on our secondary. Brents had a promising year last year but is obviously still raw -- I can't say my confidence in him is there yet. Hankins is a decent corner that can struggle against speed. Stone is definitely the most proven guy we have.

I got to be honest with you I don’t remember Hankins struggling with speed or really any of our cornerbacks I remember them miss reading a few plays I remember them getting out jumped for a ball but I don’t really remember their wheels getting blown off?!

Keep in mind Iowa State lost both of their cornerbacks from last year who were pretty good....as an aside, the best one Brian Peavey was about 5-8 1/2 and ran a 4.69 forty. Just to put the Iowa/Iowa State speed thing into perspective

 

[cmhawks99]

Non-homer honest analysis from an Iowa State fan:

1.) Bailey (DE), Lima (DT), Euwazurike (DT), Spears (LB), Rose (LB) Eisworth (SS), Young (CB) would all start for Iowa on defense. Iowa States front 7 is one of the best in the country which sounds so strange to say.
2.) Stanley is a better fit for Iowa. Purdy is a better fit for Iowa State. Such different styles impossible to claim one has the edge over the other.
3.) Iowa has the edge at RB. More proven players there. Iowa State has a couple of highly touted freshman on the way however.
4.) More talk about Chase Allen than Charlie Kolar. Kolar is widely considered the best NFL prospect on Iowa States roster. Iowa State will drastically change their offense to incorporate TE this year. Iowa is tight end U. I'm sure they have some horses waiting in the stable waiting to be introduced to the country.
5.) Iowas O-line could be special. Both tackles just absolute monsters.

So Iowa State has seven players on defense that would start for what is pretty routinely one of the top 25 or 30 defenses in the country… Do you want to rethink that at all?!

And if not would you take me up on my bet that at the end of the next five years Iowa will have placed way more defensive players in the NFL than Iowa State?

 

[Iowa555]

So Iowa State has seven players on defense that would start for what is pretty routinely one of the top 25 or 30 defenses in the country… Do you want to rethink that at all?!

And if not would you take me up on my bet that at the end of the next five years Iowa will have placed way more defensive players in the NFL than Iowa State?

I dont want to rethink it whatsoever. Which of those 7 players I named would you care to argue? Bailey, Lima, Spears and Eisworth are preseason first team all Big 12. Pencil them in. That's 4. Rose is the best MLB either roster has to offer, do you disagree? That's 5. The only two that I'd debate with you are Ewazurike at DT and Datrone Young at CB.

 

[cmhawks99]

I dont want to rethink it whatsoever. Which of those 7 players I named would you care to argue? Bailey, Lima, Spears and Eisworth are preseason first team all Big 12. Pencil them in. That's 4. Rose is the best MLB either roster has to offer, do you disagree? That's 5. The only two that I'd debate with you are Ewazurike at DT and Datrone Young at CB.

Let’s just skip to the part where we make a wager on who has more players in the NFL off of their defense in the next five years...

As I said before Rose, Lima and Ellsworth... Bailey and Gholston are somewhat similar players only Gholston is bigger and I’ll wager even faster. I’ll make a side wager his statistics are better while playing on a deeper rotation..

The only player I left off that has a chance is Spears but I expect Colbert to be a hell of a linebacker this year as well as the Welch or Niemann winner...

Rose is a stud....period!

Iowa State doesn’t have a Cb on their roster that would make Iowas too deep.

You Can’t come on the board and give a “non-homer“ review and put seven players off of your team on the defense of your biggest rival and not look like a homer. Iowa State fans have notoriously over evaluated their team in these kind of endeavors and although yes your talent has greatly improved you guys also make the natural assumption that ours has gone down and the reality is ours has never been better.

So let’s both separate ourselves for a minute and look at it like this... Iowa has had three of the last four defensive backs of the year in the Big 10 and four of the last seven in a league that puts way way way way more defensive players in the NFL than the big 12 does and you are going to assume your first year starting cornerback is better than what we have?! That pretty much tells you all you need to know right there....

 

[Packer54]

So you were hoping Lima would opt for the NFL because he is so good. Why didn't he? Stud D linemen are in huge demand in the first two rounds of the draft every year. Are you thinking he turned down a 10 mil+ signing bonus because he loves Ames so much?
I might concede LB on two counts: Rose has shown to be a real player and Iowa's group didn't impress last year. They are all a year older, stronger, and more knowledgable this year. CM is right on perceived athleticism. Welch is actually damned quick for a guy his size. None of the guys Iowa puts out there at LB are short on athleticism. Recognition was their big problem last year.
Purdy had a better QB rating having only played a partial season. Iowa was the best defense they played last year. His numbers would not have looked like they did if he had played that game. The Hawks mauled both QBs they put on the field that night. Stanley had more yards and a better TD/INT ratio even playing real defenses.
LB is literally the only position group I would consider giving the nod to them. AJE and Golston are both better than anyone they have to put on the field. Lattimore is probably equal to Lima. Lima is the tallest midget-the best guy playing on what has been a crap unit.
How is ISU going to succeed without the best RB and WR in decades?
Hope this helps you sleep better.

Agree with this....not being a homer but I think we stack up pretty well. I believe are defense will be VERY stout. DL/DE and the corners will make it difficult for passing games and Iowa is usually pretty tough against the run. (Can't wait to see Eppy on the field for 80% of the snaps). I really like what we have coming back on offense and I don't think Ames is going to intimidate our QB. I WILL be honest and say the game concerns me but I always feel that way against ISU...the intense hatred leads to teeth gnashing.

If ISU does NOT win, that will be 5 in a row and the last two against their BEST teams. There is certainly more pressure on them to win this game than Iowa.

 

[mikesright]

I dont want to rethink it whatsoever. Which of those 7 players I named would you care to argue? Bailey, Lima, Spears and Eisworth are preseason first team all Big 12. Pencil them in. That's 4. Rose is the best MLB either roster has to offer, do you disagree? That's 5. The only two that I'd debate with you are Ewazurike at DT and Datrone Young at CB.

The only player you have on that roster that is head and shoulders good enough to start for Iowa is Mike Rose. Not a single one of those players you mentioned is day one or two draft prospect material. The fact that Four!!! of them are 1st team preseason all Big 12 is all you need to know about the state of Big 12 defensive talent. You can bank on newcomers Nixon, Merriweather, Brents, Johnson, etc being better than their respective 1st team all Big 12ers when it comes down to it.

 

[TJHawkeye]

Teams are going to be surprised at how good our pass rush will be this year. Davyon Nixon will probably require a double team and make it harder to double Eppy. Double Eppy and our DT's will get penetration. My prediction, for what it's worth is that we get more sacks this year even with the losses on the dline.

 

[ROCKY MOUNTAIN HAWK]

Iowa’s better on paper & the field. We’ll see if they can win this game again.

How many in a row is Iowa going to make it this year anyway? 5?