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Three Team Race

Azchief32

HB Heisman
Dec 20, 2012
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I now think it's a three team race:

PSU
OSU
Iowa

I know there is the theory that tOSU will peak in March but they only really have a chance at three finalists and it will be a tough road for each of them. Without Strieblers points, they just won't repeat...and I don't think it's close. Also not much of a supporting cast. Finalists in order of confidence:

Jordan
Snyder
NATO

Dark horse: Little Jordan

PSU has been covered ad nauseum...I'm sure some PSU fan will be proud to interject and educate us on Cael's plan for world domination (after giving up on a year that is). For you new fans, just remember DT isn't on the roster before you go spouting off.

OSU tends to come together in March. Too bad about Kaid...as a fan, would have liked to see what he could do. Here they are in order of confidence:

DRinger
Heil (looking very solid but beatable)
JoJo-Great wrestler...solid shot at being a two or three timer. Kind of guy Iowa needs to rise up.

Dark horse: Nolan Boyd. If he wrestles like he did against Mizzou on a consistent basis, he could do well. High energy, good gas tank, full 7 minute guy.

Iowa

In order of confidence:

Grothus ( Why? Because FU, that's why ;)
Gilman
Sorensen
Clark
Burak

Dark horse: Brooks.

PSU doesn't have any dark horses, just unicorns who shoot fire out of their ass. I do think it's their's to lose but think we have shot at beating them. We could have shirted Burak this year and had a super line up next year but then Brands is messed up that way or so I've been told...always wants to put his best forward or something crazy like that...and he's a big old meanie.

Let me know what you think.
 
The thing is, I truly think OkState and Iowa will have more AA's in March. The big question is will they score enough to offset the high end scoring potential PSU has.

I have to be honest, I picked OkState at the beginning of the year and I am sticking to that. I simply think Smith is due. With that said, I think Iowa is very much in it and PSU is not nearly the unbeatable force that many are anointing them as.......
 
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125: Iowa scores more points
133: Iowa scores more points
141: Toss up
149: PSU scores more points
157: PSU scores more points
165: Toss up
174. PSU scores more points
184: Iowa score more points
197: PSU scores more points
285: Iowa scores more points

149 and 197 will dictate if we win the title. Those are two of our horses but they have some big horses also. We need some help at 157 from Imar. Can't let PSU have 3 champs or we are done.
 
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B1G tourny will be huge in determining if we have enough firepower to win the title, and also as AF mentioned, huge implications for seeding.

Here are the AA's I see for each team currently:

Iowa -- 107
Gilman - 1st +24
Clark - 2nd +18
Sorensen - 2nd +18
Meyer - 7th +8.5
Brooks - 5th +12
Burak - 3rd +16.5
Stoll - 6th +10

OSU -- 100
Klimara - 5th +12
Heil - 1st +24
Smith - 4th +14
Dieringer - 1st +24
Crutchmer - 4th +14
Marsden - 5th +12

PSU -- 109
Megaludis - 3rd +16.5
Conaway - 7th +8.5
Retherford - 1st +24
Nolf - 2nd +18
Nickal - 1st +24
McIntosh - 2nd +18

Random thoughts: Retherford and Nolf will score big bonus through the tournament, we'll have to find a way to keep up in that department. On the plus side, I think Gilman, Clark, Sorensen, and Burak will bonus in the early rounds, and Brooks and Stoll have some good bonus potential too for the earlier rounds.

Grothus could be a dark horse for us. Anybody who saw the Thorn match knows the margin between those two is razor thin, and I think the match is a tossup next time. If Brody continues to progress, I could see him on the podium in the 6-8 range, which could bolster us another 6-10 points.

Can't have PSU getting 3 champs, and I don't think it will happen. IMAR is a big obstacle for Nolf to overcome 3 times in 1 season. Nickal i could see losing to the likes of a Crutchmer, Realbuto, Brunson type, he's shown to not be unbeatable, and is a risk taker with the throws which may put him into a hole at some point he may not be able to get out of. I think Cox will take McIntosh, but I am not counting Burak and Pfarr out of the picture, both are skilled enough to pull out an 'upset' in this bracket. Burak is good enough to win it all if he wrestles his absolute best, but he could take 4th or 5th if he hits some roadblocks too.

Hopefully Gilman wins B1Gs, gets his 1 seed, then let Megaludis and Tomasello battle in the semis on the other side, or maybe Dance. Will be interesting to see how the top 4 seeds at this weight work out. Gilman taking out Megaludis in the semi's could be in our favor too.

I'm not conceding the title at 149 to Retherford just yet, but he is the favorite. I'm hoping Sorensen can wrestle like a Mark Perry under the lights and shine brightest and knock off Retherford, that would actually be a pretty big boost to the team race.

PSU has a few dangerous fringe guys, like Rasheed, McCutcheon, and Gulibon maybe. Rasheed has some gas tank issues against higher ranked opponents, which makes me think hes something like R16 or R12. McCutcheon is good, but this is not the time in the season when you want to be getting injuries, he had back problems throughout the season now a knee. Even a 100% healthy McCutcheon isn't a guarantee to place in a stacked 184, which is why I dont think he makes the podium this year.

I still think its going to be a dogfight, and I still think we're going to be right in the thick of things. My prediction is Saturday night decides who wins the team title.
 
Don't underestimate the importance of having Big Tens in Iowa City this year. This year's Big Tens will be like a home meet for the Hawks. The Carver crowd often helps to bring about results that favor the Hawks. I expect the friendly confines to give our guys a lift and boost some of them to higher finishes. Considering how Big Ten tournament results can influence NCAA seeds, the home arena factor is significant this year.
 
Although Rhoads isn't even close to a toss up in a dual meet with Rasheed, it is much closer to a toss up in Tournament scoring.
 
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I now think it's a three team race:

PSU
OSU
Iowa

I know there is the theory that tOSU will peak in March but they only really have a chance at three finalists and it will be a tough road for each of them. Without Strieblers points, they just won't repeat...and I don't think it's close. Also not much of a supporting cast. Finalists in order of confidence:

Jordan
Snyder
NATO

Dark horse: Little Jordan

PSU has been covered ad nauseum...I'm sure some PSU fan will be proud to interject and educate us on Cael's plan for world domination (after giving up on a year that is). For you new fans, just remember DT isn't on the roster before you go spouting off.

OSU tends to come together in March. Too bad about Kaid...as a fan, would have liked to see what he could do. Here they are in order of confidence:

DRinger
Heil (looking very solid but beatable)
JoJo-Great wrestler...solid shot at being a two or three timer. Kind of guy Iowa needs to rise up.

Dark horse: Nolan Boyd. If he wrestles like he did against Mizzou on a consistent basis, he could do well. High energy, good gas tank, full 7 minute guy.

Iowa

In order of confidence:

Grothus ( Why? Because FU, that's why ;)
Gilman
Sorensen
Clark
Burak

Dark horse: Brooks.

PSU doesn't have any dark horses, just unicorns who shoot fire out of their ass. I do think it's their's to lose but think we have shot at beating them. We could have shirted Burak this year and had a super line up next year but then Brands is messed up that way or so I've been told...always wants to put his best forward or something crazy like that...and he's a big old meanie.

Let me know what you think.
I think you give a pretty good overview. I will agree with the 5/4 fans that penn state is the favorite. With that said, if they lose its a choke job by Carl and the fun boys. I am confident Tom and terry can win it with the Hawks and am also confident they would win it if they coached the penn state team. Can't say the same for Carl. As Bum Phillips use to say about Don Shula - He can take his'n and beat your'n and take your'n and beat his'n.
 
I think you give a pretty good overview. I will agree with the 5/4 fans that penn state is the favorite. With that said, if they lose its a choke job by Carl and the fun boys. I am confident Tom and terry can win it with the Hawks and am also confident they would win it if they coached the penn state team. Can't say the same for Carl. As Bum Phillips use to say about Don Shula - He can take his'n and beat your'n and take your'n and beat his'n.

Same thing could be said about Tom/Terry with last years team. We had a senior laden team that simply did not perform up to expectations as has been the norm the past 3 years at Nationals. This tournament will most likely come down to how many Bonus pts Penn St accumulates and if the Hawks finally peak at Nationals and do Not lay an egg. No excuses for not pushing for a team title this year versus finishing a distant 2nd or 3rd.
 
I love that everyone is fairly positive, we need to take care of business, win any head to head with penn st. we can't count on others(maybe Martinez at 157). that being said I think guilibon is looking a lot better last couple of times out,so brodster needs to put pedal to medal theres a reason for that 20 some page thread he is vital.i do not see why Rhodes could not go farther than Rasheed dude has a big heart. stay healthy tcb. I am excited as heck.stanley has it about right 4 for pst 4 for iowa 2toss up.
 
Same thing could be said about Tom/Terry with last years team. We had a senior laden team that simply did not perform up to expectations as has been the norm the past 3 years at Nationals. This tournament will most likely come down to how many Bonus pts Penn St accumulates and if the Hawks finally peak at Nationals and do Not lay an egg. No excuses for not pushing for a team title this year versus finishing a distant 2nd or 3rd.
No excuses for the last 4 years but I'm fairly confident the Hawks will be a bit different in March - not saying they will win it but they will battle. There is a different attitude / vibe with this group vs the previous couple years - you can interpret that however you want. If Grothus continues the improvement and the Hawks stay healthy it will be interesting in IC and NYC.
 
I agree with that AZ. Only thing I will add is dont read too much into that Boyd win over Miklus. Willie had a bum ankle and shouldnt have even went out if coach Smith wasnt trying to beat Ok St adn keep the dual win streak rolling. Guessing he figured it was better than having willies backup give up bonus.

And he was right considering Willie sat this weekend and watched a backup get majored by Dechow.

Miklus will be a major player at 184 at NCAAs. He wrestles Dean as close as anyone and beats the snot out of Courts so hopefully they put Courts in Willies path. Or McCutcheon for that matter. Iowa needs help at 184 and those are 2 pefrect guys to bounce out for the team race and hope Brooks goes on a vision quest.

Odd that Stauffer knocked out both Miklus and Brooks in STL last year. 184 is just a mystery. a bunch of chickens with there heads cut off from #2-14
 
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I think you give a pretty good overview. I will agree with the 5/4 fans that penn state is the favorite. With that said, if they lose its a choke job by Carl and the fun boys. I am confident Tom and terry can win it with the Hawks and am also confident they would win it if they coached the penn state team. Can't say the same for Carl. As Bum Phillips use to say about Don Shula - He can take his'n and beat your'n and take your'n and beat his'n.

At Iowa State, Sanderson took over a team that finished 13th at NCAAs and led them to a 2nd place finish in his first year.

At Virginia Tech, Brands took over a team that finished 41st at NCAAs and led them to a 42nd place finish in his first year.

At Penn State, Sanderson took over a team that finished 17th at NCAAs and led them to a 9th place finish in his first year.

At Iowa, Brands took over a team that finished 4th at NCAAs and led them to an 8th place finish in his first year.

Sanderson has had 11 individual NCAA champions in his nine years of coaching. Brands has had 9 individual champions in his 11 years of coaching. All of the individual champs under Brands have been guys who were ranked top 20 coming out of high school (Borschel at 19th was the lowest ranked). Sanderson's individual champions include one who was ranked 68th coming out of high school (Molinaro) and one who was ranked 88th (Matt Brown).

But, sure, Bum Phillips ...
 
Brands would have come into Iowa and won his first year, had his recruits who followed him been granted a release like Caels recruits who followed him. Also, comparing what Virginia Tech used to be, to Iowa State who has been a historical power, is laughable.

Not to mention the 7-2 record vs Cael coached teams in duals.

Cael also needed a mid-season mercenary to win his first B1G and Team title.
 
At Iowa State, Sanderson took over a team that finished 13th at NCAAs and led them to a 2nd place finish in his first year.

At Virginia Tech, Brands took over a team that finished 41st at NCAAs and led them to a 42nd place finish in his first year.

At Penn State, Sanderson took over a team that finished 17th at NCAAs and led them to a 9th place finish in his first year.

At Iowa, Brands took over a team that finished 4th at NCAAs and led them to an 8th place finish in his first year.

Sanderson has had 11 individual NCAA champions in his nine years of coaching. Brands has had 9 individual champions in his 11 years of coaching. All of the individual champs under Brands have been guys who were ranked top 20 coming out of high school (Borschel at 19th was the lowest ranked). Sanderson's individual champions include one who was ranked 68th coming out of high school (Molinaro) and one who was ranked 88th (Matt Brown).

But, sure, Bum Phillips ...

Taylor #1, M. Hall #1, McIntosh #1, A. Alton #2, Magaludis #3, Gulibon #3, Retherford #3, Nolf #4, Joseph #5, Nevills, #5, Nickal #7, Ruth #7, D. Alton #8, on and on.

I think the phrase to describe you PSU trolls is "born on third and thinks he hit a triple."
 
At Iowa State, Sanderson took over a team that finished 13th at NCAAs and led them to a 2nd place finish in his first year.

At Virginia Tech, Brands took over a team that finished 41st at NCAAs and led them to a 42nd place finish in his first year.

At Penn State, Sanderson took over a team that finished 17th at NCAAs and led them to a 9th place finish in his first year.

At Iowa, Brands took over a team that finished 4th at NCAAs and led them to an 8th place finish in his first year.

Sanderson has had 11 individual NCAA champions in his nine years of coaching. Brands has had 9 individual champions in his 11 years of coaching. All of the individual champs under Brands have been guys who were ranked top 20 coming out of high school (Borschel at 19th was the lowest ranked). Sanderson's individual champions include one who was ranked 68th coming out of high school (Molinaro) and one who was ranked 88th (Matt Brown).

But, sure, Bum Phillips ...

Didn't Molinaro AA in his first year without Cael? Also, who was the assistant coach of that Iowa State team that Cael took over?
 
A bit surprising that the "Cael can only recruit, he can't coach" argument is still out there.
Oh well, to each their own.
 
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NittanyChris,

No one said he can't coach. He simply recruits so damn well it makes it hard to gauge his coaching. I would love to see him at a school like Edinboro or Northwestern. Limit his resources and see what happens. I am sure he would be successful, but he sure wouldn't be able to recruit anywhere near like he does now.........................
 
NittanyChris,

No one said he can't coach. He simply recruits so damn well it makes it hard to gauge his coaching. I would love to see him at a school like Edinboro or Northwestern. Limit his resources and see what happens. I am sure he would be successful, but he sure wouldn't be able to recruit anywhere near like he does now.........................

That's fair enough. Though I'm sure that same argument could be applied to Brands, Smith, Ryan or any coach at a top wrestling school, don't you think?
 
NittanyChrys,

Without a doubt. I just don't think any of them have had near the success recruiting, although Ryan has done very well recently. As I said, I still firmly believe Sanderson would be successful anywhere, however, it is still telling that he left his Alma Mater to take over at PSU. He knew how important recruiting would be and how hard it was for him being in the shadow of Iowa at ISU. His "coaching" would have been tested much more there................
 
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NittanyChrys,

Without a doubt. I just don't think any of them have had near the success recruiting, although Ryan has done very well recently. As I said, I still firmly believe Sanderson would be successful anywhere, however, it is still telling that he left his Alma Mater to take over at PSU. He knew how important recruiting would be and how hard it was for him being in the shadow of Iowa at ISU. His "coaching" would have been tested much more there................

The problem I have with your position is that Cael could potentially win the next 10 national championships in a row and never get credit for being a great coach. People will always put forth your point to lessen any coaching achievement he ever accomplishes. I don't believe that is entirely fair.
 
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NittanyChris,

This argument goes on in every sport. Which is why you often see big name coaches in football or basketball switch around. They want their legacy to be untouchable. Cael is a great coach. He may very well end up proving to be the best ever. In the end, recruiting is possibly the most important aspect of coaching. As long as he is winning, who cares what arguments there are? If at any time it truly matters to him(which I don't see how it ever will), he can always go to a Mid-major and prove any nay-sayers wrong. I don't think he has to, or would want to, but he always will have that option.....................


Edited to add: It also doesn't hurt that the coaches in other sports are making millions of dollars!
 
Didn't Brands red-shirt about all his best wrestlers that 1st year at Virginia Tech? I remember when they came to Iowa City for that dual meet and Iowa absolutely crushed VT 38-0.
 
I can't share any of the optimism in this thread.
The problem I have with your position is that Cael could potentially win the next 10 national championships in a row and never get credit for being a great coach. People will always put forth your point to lessen any coaching achievement he ever accomplishes. I don't believe that is entirely fair.

I agree with this.

Yes, so long as he is the best recruiting coach we'll never know for certain just how good of a coach he is -- unless PSU suddenly takes a nosedive and never recovers, in which case we'll know he sucked. But if he keeps winning National Championships while Iowa keeps placing 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, then as an Iowa fan I'm not interested in that argument.
 
Didn't Brands red-shirt about all his best wrestlers that 1st year at Virginia Tech? I remember when they came to Iowa City for that dual meet and Iowa absolutely crushed VT 38-0.
That's correct. His first season at VT they redshirted. Then his first season at Iowa they got flat out screwed by that deuche bag AD I think it was Weaver.
 
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PSU could easily get 90 to 100 points just off their #1 ranked guys. Megaludis could be another 20. Conaway, Gulibon, Rasheed and McCutch will likely score 10 to 20 more as a group. 120 to 140 total.

I could see 75-85 from our top 4 ranked guys (we need that for sure). We need Brooks to get in that 20 point range to hang around. Can Meyer and Stoll get 10-15 each? I can't hang my hat on getting much from 141, 157 and 165; could be anywhere from 0 to 10 total.
 
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That's fair enough. Though I'm sure that same argument could be applied to Brands, Smith, Ryan or any coach at a top wrestling school, don't you think?

Cael was at a top school at Iowa State...given the same recruiting area/chances etc, Brands was able to beat him. When Cael moved to PA, he was a big name coach going to an area without a big time school. He no longer had to compete from the Midwest with Brands, JRob and Smith. He has PA, NY, and New Jersey basically to himself. When Cael got to PSU, he already had Q and Molinaro as AAs with Ruth waiting for him. Of the 9 national champs he has had at PSU:

DT x 2 (Recruited by Cael)-Ohio
Brown- (Recruited by Cael)-Utah
Q X 2-(Already there)-PA
Ed X 3-(Already there)-PA
Molinaro (Already there)-NJ

Hell of a good start.. Now let's look at his current team and where they are from:

Nico-PA
Conaway-PA
Guilbon/Moss-PA
149-Zain-PA
157-Nolf-PA
165-Rasheed, NY/Morelli, PA
174-Bo-Texas
184-McCutheon-PA
197-MM-CA
HWY-Nevills CA/Johnson PA

Now most would agree that PSU has five shots at a championship. Nico, Zain, Nolf, Bo, MM. Nico was an instant finalist without having to redshirt. Zain beat Streibler and finished fifth without having to redshirt. Nolf was a runner up at the Scuffle his true freshman. Bo got injured. My point? PSU guys, especially on their board, are arguing that Cael is remaking the face of wrestling...a brand new style from what I have read...some type of bald-guy, voodoo magic. The opposition's point? Ready made dudes from the richest talent area in the United States. Guys like Jordan Oliver, who would have probably never left the state.

What's this mean? Nothing. Success breeds success and it's up to everybody else to catch Cael in the recruiting department or beat him in the development area. Most of us are not trying to take away anything from Cael. For all the excuses that are put forth, he held up the trophy four times at PSU and that's all that really matters. But don't brag incessantly that your (folks in general from PA) state is the best hands down for high school wrestling, but then try and claim that Cael has somehow developed a brand new theory for successful wrestling when 7/10 of your current team are the cream of the crop from PA and he wasn't doing it at his former school.
 
Cael was at a top school at Iowa State...given the same recruiting area/chances etc, Brands was able to beat him. When Cael moved to PA, he was a big name coach going to an area without a big time school. He no longer had to compete from the Midwest with Brands, JRob and Smith. He has PA, NY, and New Jersey basically to himself. When Cael got to PSU, he already had Q and Molinaro as AAs with Ruth waiting for him. Of the 9 national champs he has had at PSU:

DT x 2 (Recruited by Cael)-Ohio
Brown- (Recruited by Cael)-Utah
Q X 2-(Already there)-PA
Ed X 3-(Already there)-PA
Molinaro (Already there)-NJ

Hell of a good start.. Now let's look at his current team and where they are from:

Nico-PA
Conaway-PA
Guilbon/Moss-PA
149-Zain-PA
157-Nolf-PA
165-Rasheed, NY/Morelli, PA
174-Bo-Texas
184-McCutheon-PA
197-MM-CA
HWY-Nevills CA/Johnson PA

Now most would agree that PSU has five shots at a championship. Nico, Zain, Nolf, Bo, MM. Nico was an instant finalist without having to redshirt. Zain beat Streibler and finished fifth without having to redshirt. Nolf was a runner up at the Scuffle his true freshman. Bo got injured. My point? PSU guys, especially on their board, are arguing that Cael is remaking the face of wrestling...a brand new style from what I have read...some type of bald-guy, voodoo magic. The opposition's point? Ready made dudes from the richest talent area in the United States. Guys like Jordan Oliver, who would have probably never left the state.

What's this mean? Nothing. Success breeds success and it's up to everybody else to catch Cael in the recruiting department or beat him in the development area. Most of us are not trying to take away anything from Cael. For all the excuses that are put forth, he held up the trophy four times at PSU and that's all that really matters. But don't brag incessantly that your (folks in general from PA) state is the best hands down for high school wrestling, but then try and claim that Cael has somehow developed a brand new theory for successful wrestling when 7/10 of your current team are the cream of the crop from PA and he wasn't doing it at his former school.

Boom..............
 
Well, AZ, when you say "Most of us are not trying to take away anything from Cael", I do believe you. I won't argue that point.

Where I take issue is when there are posters that attempt to denigrate Cael in some way and, in fact, ARE trying to take something away from Cael. It's with those posters, and you know they are out there, with whom I take issue.
 
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Well Chris, maybe my Irish is up because I was proven wrong on a thread by one of my guys (wasdt). He asked me why I posted on BWI when it's all anti Brands/Iowa all the time? You want to see actual denigration? Comments like Brands is bad for the sport, Gilman is a punk, Brands can't coach (period)...you know these are on there bud...a whole thread is currently rolling this very moment.

It's like you guys have spent your whole wrestling fan life complaining about how Iowa fans are such arrogant pricks...but then do your level best to out do us.
 
No excuses for the last 4 years but I'm fairly confident the Hawks will be a bit different in March - not saying they will win it but they will battle. There is a different attitude / vibe with this group vs the previous couple years - you can interpret that however you want. If Grothus continues the improvement and the Hawks stay healthy it will be interesting in IC and NYC.
I honestly just think that the seniors just were not good leaders or something was just not 100% for them, especially Evans. I think he got in his own way to reach his max potential. I agree that this team has more of an "Iowa" edge to them than the previous year or two
 
The problem I have with your position is that Cael could potentially win the next 10 national championships in a row and never get credit for being a great coach. People will always put forth your point to lessen any coaching achievement he ever accomplishes. I don't believe that is entirely fair.
This is a steaming pile of dung. Asinine. If he wins the next 10 NCAAs in a row he will be considered a wrestling god.
 
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Well Chris, maybe my Irish is up because I was proven wrong on a thread by one of my guys (wasdt). He asked me why I posted on BWI when it's all anti Brands/Iowa all the time? You want to see actual denigration? Comments like Brands is bad for the sport, Gilman is a punk, Brands can't coach (period)...you know these are on there bud...a whole thread is currently rolling this very moment.

It's like you guys have spent your whole wrestling fan life complaining about how Iowa fans are such arrogant pricks...but then do your level best to out do us.

I suppose there are extremists on both sides. Just look at HoundedHawk's last reply to me to see a prime example. Let's not let that deter the reasonable fans from having some fun, civil back and forth debate. With the occasional good-natured ribbing as well.
 
Well, AZ, when you say "Most of us are not trying to take away anything from Cael", I do believe you. I won't argue that point.

Where I take issue is when there are posters that attempt to denigrate Cael in some way and, in fact, ARE trying to take something away from Cael. It's with those posters, and you know they are out there, with whom I take issue.
Please just ignore him.
 
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