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To make an NCAA tourney run, what would we have to do?

Franisdaman

Franisdaman

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Nov 3, 2012
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Lets face it. There are 4 top tier teams in the B1G and everybody else is a toss up when it comes to the Big Dance.

We have 8 games to go in the conference schedule. What does Iowa have to do to get serious consideration for the Big Dance? Would we need to win 6 of 8 (gets us to 19-12, 11-7)? Or 7 of 8 (gets us to 20-11, 12-6)? Then of course we can't be a one and done in the BTT.

I know. I am dreaming. But what if?

Look, right now we are in 6th in the B1G. Like I said above, there are a lot of average teams in the B1G this year.

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20 wins minimum. We need to beat Wisconsin or Maryland to cancel out the UNO game. Gonna be tough.

Our RPI is still 102. :eek:
 
Please. Let's be happy if the same version of this team that has played the last 2 games shows up more times than it doesn't the rest of this season and we're a solid lock for an NIT bid.

The vast majority of us would've been content with that before the year started. Get a couple of home games for the NIT and get the experience.
 
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To make an NCAA tourney run, what would we have to do?....

Make a deep NIT run this year,.... Then go for respectable NCAA tourney runs in '18 & '19.....
 
If Iowa finishes 20-11, our RPI would be about 54 which could get us into the tournament. That means winning 7 of 8, which is highly unlikely. While I don't see any game we cannot win, we are not projected to be more than a 4 point favorite in any game left on the schedule. Finishing 4-4 in our remaining games would be a solid accomplishment.
 
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There's a saying in rockabilly that's the same in March Madness- GET HOT OR GO HOME!

This team has the kind of streakyness that could make it happen.
 
I would say with 8 games remaining Iowa has to go 6-2 to remotely have a LONG SHOT into the NCAA. If we go 7-1, then were talking a possibility heading into BTT. If we go 8-0 then I would say yes we are in before BTT.

I see this bunch finishing about 4-4 down the stretch. I see us beating (Nebbie, ILL, IU, and PSU at home). I see us losing our road games (@Minn, @MSU, @MD, @ Wisky).

If this team can somehow find a way to win at MSU or Minny, that would be HUGE win in terms of RPI. Same for MD & Wisky.

I think this team finishes about 17-18 wins and 12-13 losses.

I think if they could win 1 or 2 in the BTT, that should be enough to get them into the NIT.
 
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icantfindausernamethatisntused said:
If Iowa finishes 20-11, our RPI would be about 54 which could get us into the tournament. That means winning 7 of 8, which is highly unlikely. While I don't see any game we cannot win, we are not projected to be more than a 4 point favorite in any game left on the schedule. Finishing 4-4 in our remaining games would be a solid accomplishment.
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I was listening to a podcast the other day and the NCAA guru said the bubble will be as "weak" as its ever been. Outside of the ACC, most conferences will be lucky in getting 5-6 teams. The mid-major crop is way down this year as well. So who knows. IF Iowa can somehow get to 20 wins and win 1-2 key games (@MD, @ Wisky, @ Minn). That would be huge.
 
DavenportHawk8 said:
I was listening to a podcast the other day and the NCAA guru said the bubble will be as "weak" as its ever been. Outside of the ACC, most conferences will be lucky in getting 5-6 teams. The mid-major crop is way down this year as well. So who knows. IF Iowa can somehow get to 20 wins and win 1-2 key games (@MD, @ Wisky, @ Minn). That would be huge.
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I keep hoping.
 
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QChawks said:
Win the B1G tourney.

Otherwise we'd need to win about 6/7 straight and 2-3 in the conf tourney.
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I'm pretty sure this is correct. I think we could go 7-1 and win 2 in B1G tourney or 6-2 with 3 wins in B1G tourney. Otherwise, we've got too many holes and haven't done enough away from home.
 
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I don't know fellas, I think if we get to 20 wins overall, we could have a shot. I'm talking 5-3 (18-13) the rest of the way and win at least two in the BTT. Two wins would have us at 20-14. Maybe that just wouldn't be enough, but with a soft bubble, who knows? Surely the NIT would be a lock with that record?
 
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Some really bad losses that will be hard to ignore. I think it would take at least 21 wins or winning the BTT.
 
Remember UCLA two years ago? [corrected. thanks, guys] That team had no business -- NONE -- making the NCAA field. But when they did, what, they made it to the sweet sixteen? Anytime a committee is involved, you should know that anything can happen.

Iowa is a young team that, if it gets on a roll the rest of the way, the youth maturing could be a plus factor in a committee discussion. The fact that Iowa has had some injury problems, especially with Jok playing hurt and entirely sitting out several Big Ten games.
A win @ Wisky or @ Minny or @ MSU wouldn't hurt.

If Iowa could go 6-3 or better the last half and win at least 2 in the BTT, the Hawkeyes would be more deserving than UCLA was last year.

But as others have mentioned, maybe the Hawkeyes should just take a page from last year's UNI team and put themselves into the NCAA by winning the BTT. That would be capital thing to do. ;)
 
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aristotleiowa said:
Remember UCLA last year? That team had no business -- NONE -- making the NCAA field. But when they did, what, they made it to the sweet sixteen? Anytime a committee is involved, you should know that anything can happen.

Iowa is a young team that, if it gets on a roll the rest of the way, the youth maturing could be a plus factor in a committee discussion. The fact that Iowa has had some injury problems, especially with Jok playing hurt and entirely sitting out several Big Ten games.
A win @ Wisky or @ Minny or @ MSU wouldn't hurt.

If Iowa could go 6-3 or better the last half and win at least 2 in the BTT, the Hawkeyes would be more deserving than UCLA was last year.

But as others have mentioned, maybe the Hawkeyes should just take a page from last year's UNI team and put themselves into the NCAA by winning the BTT. That would be capital thing to do. ;)
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Is this some alternate facts version of reality? You are right that UCLA had no business making the NCAA tournament last year, they went 15-17 (6-12 in the Pac12) but they most certainly didn't make the NCAA tournament and especially not the sweet sixteen.
 
33hawkfan said:
Is this some alternate facts version of reality? You are right that UCLA had no business making the NCAA tournament last year, they went 15-17 (6-12 in the Pac12) but they most certainly didn't make the NCAA tournament and especially not the sweet sixteen.
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I think he means two years ago. And he's right.
 
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Going 7-1 down the stretch and 2 BTT wins would give them a better than 50-50 shot at getting in.

Otherwise, the rpi hole they are in will be nearly impossible to escape.
 
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SDHawkDoc said:
Going 7-1 down the stretch and 2 BTT wins would give them a better than 50-50 shot at getting in.

Otherwise, the rpi hole they are in will be nearly impossible to escape.
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This is the reality of the situation. The RPI situation is somewhat baked into the cake at this point. Two wins over Top 50 RPI, with 7 wins over 150+ teams (6 of those against teams at 225 or worse). To put it into perspective, the wins over Rutgers are the 4th and 5th best wins Iowa has so far this year. Now, to put on the really rose-colored glasses should Iowa win 3 of 4 on the road against Minnesota, MSU, Wisconsin and Maryland, Iowa's RPI would get a huge RPI boost. And that's assuming that Iowa doesn't stumble in the home games.

Really, the games that are hurting Iowa at this point are the road games against Illinois and Nebraska, and the home one with Maryland. Both road games would have been road wins against decent (Top 60) RPI teams. Led Maryland with 3 minutes to go, would have been a win over a Top 20 RPI team.

I just hope for continued good/aggressive play by the Hawks down the stretch. If they do so, they will have a shot of winning at least 1 of the final 4 road games. Pulling off any of them would be big for this team.
 
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The real ship probably sailed during the off season. But it has been fun to be able to have the conversation, hasn't it? And hopefully we get a win against Nebraska and we can keep our hopes alive longer.

What I find interesting is how many teams ahead of us aren't all that impressive either. As DodgerHawki mentions the bubble is soft. I guess the NCAA is getting what it always wanted in twenty-five or so regular participants divided roughly equally across the country based on television marketability.

And yes, there is always the BTT but unless MSU takes a total nosedive isn't it likely the rest of the season and the BTT will be all about making sure they get an invite?

Think about this. If MSU and Iowa miss the Tournament, there will be only one Big Ten team that has been invited the last four years. Wisconsin.

The way things work in College Basketball these days, I'm very happy with how the season has gone so far. And thrilled at future prospects. I see no reason why we can't expect years of being among the top of the second tier programs, just behind the elites.

Meanwhile, for the first time since Mike Gesell and Woody among others were freshmen, we are likely going to have to say, "Next year", to an NCAA invite. Likely. But again, the point is we aren't dead yet!
 
DanL53 said:
The real ship probably sailed during the off season. But it has been fun to be able to have the conversation, hasn't it? And hopefully we get a win against Nebraska and we can keep our hopes alive longer.

What I find interesting is how many teams ahead of us aren't all that impressive either. As DodgerHawki mentions the bubble is soft. I guess the NCAA is getting what it always wanted in twenty-five or so regular participants divided roughly equally across the country based on television marketability.

And yes, there is always the BTT but unless MSU takes a total nosedive isn't it likely the rest of the season and the BTT will be all about making sure they get an invite?

Think about this. If MSU and Iowa miss the Tournament, there will be only one Big Ten team that has been invited the last four years. Wisconsin.

The way things work in College Basketball these days, I'm very happy with how the season has gone so far. And thrilled at future prospects. I see no reason why we can't expect years of being among the top of the second tier programs, just behind the elites.

Meanwhile, for the first time since Mike Gesell and Woody among others were freshmen, we are likely going to have to say, "Next year", to an NCAA invite. Likely. But again, the point is we aren't dead yet!
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The part about Wisconsin being the only team to make it 4 years in a row in the B1G if Iowa and MSU miss out is rather amazing. Making the tournament is different than it used to be both in terms of depth of the league and depth outside of the power conferences. My point is making the tournament every year isn't a given for anyone outside of the absolute best.

And I would agree (generally) that Iowa was always a longshot for the NCAA this year. Just the reality of the situation.
 
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Here's hoping that now that the Hawkeyes have won a road game in the B1G they have turned the corner. Just as has always been said, win the game in front of you and everything will fall into place. One game at a time. Stay focused, and play hard from tip off to final horn. If Rutgers can take Wiskey to OT at their place... it's doable !
 
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bagdropper said:
One game at a time, folks.

I know, dare to dream, but at the moment all I care about is Iowa kicking Nebraska's ass.
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I'm dreaming two at a time. In fact I'm assuming a win and moving on to those rodents on the Prairie who for some reason I've decided are the game of the century, this year. I want Nebraska and Minnesota lying in a pool of tears and broken dreams. I want Iowa to be 7-5 in the Big Ten with six regular season games to go and our future opponents saying, "Oh, crud, why couldn't we have played them sooner?!?!?".
 
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21 wins and we are squarely on the bubble and likely in. Anything less, probably out. Essentially, go no less than 6-2 the rest of the way in regular season. Win all home games, and split those 4 tough road games. Win game one as 5 seed against Rutgers, then beat NW who would be 4 seed. Lose next game to Wisky/Maryland as #1 seed and our RPI sits around 54ish.

Go 5-3 during regular season and have same scenario in BTT, and our RPI sits around 66ish. Probably out.
 
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DodgerHawki said:
This is the reality of the situation. The RPI situation is somewhat baked into the cake at this point. Two wins over Top 50 RPI, with 7 wins over 150+ teams (6 of those against teams at 225 or worse). To put it into perspective, the wins over Rutgers are the 4th and 5th best wins Iowa has so far this year. Now, to put on the really rose-colored glasses should Iowa win 3 of 4 on the road against Minnesota, MSU, Wisconsin and Maryland, Iowa's RPI would get a huge RPI boost. And that's assuming that Iowa doesn't stumble in the home games.

Really, the games that are hurting Iowa at this point are the road games against Illinois and Nebraska, and the home one with Maryland. Both road games would have been road wins against decent (Top 60) RPI teams. Led Maryland with 3 minutes to go, would have been a win over a Top 20 RPI team.

I just hope for continued good/aggressive play by the Hawks down the stretch. If they do so, they will have a shot of winning at least 1 of the final 4 road games. Pulling off any of them would be big for this team.
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Purdue and who? ISU is now sitting at 51.
 
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