Donald Trump’s Republican opponents seem worried.
Many believe GOP voters are ready to move on from the former president, but we all remember the 2016 primary. In that race, Trump had roughly 35 percent of Republican voters behind him, and multiple opponents split an anti-Trump majority. Trump won state after state — and the nomination — with just a plurality of the vote.
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Trump’s foes are right to fear a repeat of 2016, but they’re thinking too small. There are so many other ways the primary could turn out badly for them.
Here are four completely speculative doomsday scenarios. None of them are likely. But they illustrate how the GOP’s problems go far beyond the potential for a divided field.
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If the GOP snubs Trump and picks some other nominee, he might retaliate. He could run a scorched-earth primary against the winner, allege that the primaries were fraudulent, refuse to endorse the nominee or tell his supporters to stay home in November.
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These gambits might not move the needle much. But we live in a polarized era of close national contests. If a hurt, petulant Trump shaved just a couple of percentage points off the Republican vote share, he could hand the Democrats another term in the White House.
In that race, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney had roughly 35 percent of the party behind him. A gaggle of flawed conservative candidates saw these numbers and thought Romney was beatable — so one by one, they emerged to challenge him.
And one by one, Romney exposed their flaws, watched them fall and kept his narrow lead.
The 2012 election is another cautionary tale for anti-Trump forces. Even if they coalesce behind one candidate and avoid the mistakes of 2016, their champion might not have staying power.
And, gradually, Republicans could slide into their own version of the 2016 Democratic primary.
In that election, Hillary Clinton dealt with email server scandals and constant media scrutiny, and her favorability ratings dropped. Democrats stuck with Clinton — in part because the second-place candidate, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, seemed unelectable — and Clinton won the nomination. But she emerged damaged and lost the November election.
The parallel — DeSantis playing the role of Clinton and Trump portraying Sanders — isn’t perfect. The Republican delegate rules have historically been more front-runner-friendly than Democratic rules. The winning GOP candidate often takes a disproportionate share of the delegates, and can officially clinch victory quickly. So a DeSantis-vs.- Trump matchup might not stretch out for the whole primary, as the Clinton-vs.-Sanders showdown did. But the basic scenario — the leading Trump alternative takes on too much damage, but the party stays committed — is still possible.
Trump has lost some ground — his favorability rating among Republicans went from 91 percent on the eve of the 2020 election to 72 percent today. But 72 percent is not the worst place to start a primary campaign. If Trump ran on his 2016 or 2020 message again and focused on talking to voters (rather than selling his branded cards) he might win an outright majority of the GOP vote.
This would be a true worst-case scenario for the anti-Trump GOP. The majority of voters would have rejected them and thrown a scandal-ridden candidate with a dismal 34 percent overall favorability rating into yet another general election.
If Trump’s opponents work together well — finding a competent candidate who can withstand the spotlight and beat Trump — they have a shot at taking back the party. If not, one of these nightmare scenarios, or one yet to be imagined, might come to pass.
Many believe GOP voters are ready to move on from the former president, but we all remember the 2016 primary. In that race, Trump had roughly 35 percent of Republican voters behind him, and multiple opponents split an anti-Trump majority. Trump won state after state — and the nomination — with just a plurality of the vote.
Sign up for a weekly roundup of thought-provoking ideas and debates
Trump’s foes are right to fear a repeat of 2016, but they’re thinking too small. There are so many other ways the primary could turn out badly for them.
Here are four completely speculative doomsday scenarios. None of them are likely. But they illustrate how the GOP’s problems go far beyond the potential for a divided field.
Scenario one: Trump loses, storms off and sabotages the nominee.
Trump has never been a loyal Republican. He spent years registered as a Democrat and flirted with a presidential run on the ticket of Ross Perot’s Reform Party in 2000. During the 2016 primary, he threatened to run as a third-party candidate if he lost the GOP nomination.ADVERTISING
If the GOP snubs Trump and picks some other nominee, he might retaliate. He could run a scorched-earth primary against the winner, allege that the primaries were fraudulent, refuse to endorse the nominee or tell his supporters to stay home in November.
Follow David Byler's opinionsFollow
These gambits might not move the needle much. But we live in a polarized era of close national contests. If a hurt, petulant Trump shaved just a couple of percentage points off the Republican vote share, he could hand the Democrats another term in the White House.
Scenario two: Trump gains a weak lead — and the 2012 clown car returns.
Most anti-Trump Republicans are worried about repeating 2016. But if Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis fades, the 2012 primary could repeat itself instead.In that race, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney had roughly 35 percent of the party behind him. A gaggle of flawed conservative candidates saw these numbers and thought Romney was beatable — so one by one, they emerged to challenge him.
And one by one, Romney exposed their flaws, watched them fall and kept his narrow lead.
The 2012 election is another cautionary tale for anti-Trump forces. Even if they coalesce behind one candidate and avoid the mistakes of 2016, their champion might not have staying power.
Scenario three: Republicans stick with a flawed Trump alternative.
Republican voters know Trump, but — outside Florida — they don’t know DeSantis very well. DeSantis could look strong in the early months of the primary, only to take on water as the campaign wears on. Scandals could emerge. He might stumble in debates. Maybe his intensely conservative record would look like a liability with swing voters.And, gradually, Republicans could slide into their own version of the 2016 Democratic primary.
In that election, Hillary Clinton dealt with email server scandals and constant media scrutiny, and her favorability ratings dropped. Democrats stuck with Clinton — in part because the second-place candidate, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, seemed unelectable — and Clinton won the nomination. But she emerged damaged and lost the November election.
The parallel — DeSantis playing the role of Clinton and Trump portraying Sanders — isn’t perfect. The Republican delegate rules have historically been more front-runner-friendly than Democratic rules. The winning GOP candidate often takes a disproportionate share of the delegates, and can officially clinch victory quickly. So a DeSantis-vs.- Trump matchup might not stretch out for the whole primary, as the Clinton-vs.-Sanders showdown did. But the basic scenario — the leading Trump alternative takes on too much damage, but the party stays committed — is still possible.
Scenario four: Trump plays the hits and wins outright.
It’s easy to forget, but Republican voters still love Trump.Trump has lost some ground — his favorability rating among Republicans went from 91 percent on the eve of the 2020 election to 72 percent today. But 72 percent is not the worst place to start a primary campaign. If Trump ran on his 2016 or 2020 message again and focused on talking to voters (rather than selling his branded cards) he might win an outright majority of the GOP vote.
This would be a true worst-case scenario for the anti-Trump GOP. The majority of voters would have rejected them and thrown a scandal-ridden candidate with a dismal 34 percent overall favorability rating into yet another general election.
The GOP’s real problem: Trump is out for himself, and his opponents don’t always work together well.
These scenarios are purely speculative — and arguably unlikely. But they highlight a core problem for the GOP. Trump leads his faction, in pursuit of his own goals, and the rest of the party often fails to work together against him.If Trump’s opponents work together well — finding a competent candidate who can withstand the spotlight and beat Trump — they have a shot at taking back the party. If not, one of these nightmare scenarios, or one yet to be imagined, might come to pass.
