The U.S. government is barreling toward yet another pointless, unforced crisis: a federal shutdown just ahead of Christmas. No one planned it, exactly. Yet it seems almost inevitable.
Why? Because President-elect Donald Trump and his unelected co-president, Elon Musk, have accidentally “Art of the Deal”-ed themselves.
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Trump is widely expected to “shake things up,” which appears to be a euphemism for indiscriminate destruction. He hasn’t even been sworn in yet, but with another erratic egomaniac billionaire now assisting him in his shake-up (and occasional shakedown), he’s already ahead of schedule.
Funding to keep basic government operations running expires on Saturday. Lawmakers have spent the past few weeks negotiating a relatively banal, bipartisan spending agreement to keep the lights on until March 14 at current funding levels with a handful of other elements added in (hurricane relief funding, a potential cost-of-living adjustment for lawmakers’ pay, etc.).
Until recently, Trump had ignored these negotiations entirely. But early on Wednesday, Musk decided it was time to start breaking things, so he posted a tirade of incoherent and often outright false complaints about the deal, demanding that it be nuked.
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He then added that no legislation should pass until Trump is sworn in on Jan. 20. This would mean a federal government shutdown for about a month (at least). He might get his wish: The original bill died; a replacement bill failed in a House vote Thursday night; and Vice President-elect JD Vance and Trump seemed to cheer on the wreckage, suggesting maybe a shutdown isn’t so bad after all. “If there is going to be a shutdown of government, let it begin now, under the Biden Administration,” Trump posted on TruthSocial.
It might seem difficult to understand how Musk or Trump could possibly view an extended shutdown — especially one lasting through the inauguration — as a favorable outcome. Shutdowns cost the government money, since winding down operations (and then ramping them back up) is expensive. They also weigh on the overall economy; a five-week, partial government shutdown starting in December 2018 reduced U.S. gross domestic product by $3 billion, the Congressional Budget Office estimated. This was the lasting cost even after everything was turned back on.
A shutdown would probably also present political challenges. Usually an incoming administration wants some breathing room in its first few days to focus on its own priorities, not to enter office amid chaos. It’s also unclear how a government shutdown might affect the pageantry of the inauguration, which clearly matters to Trump. (I’ve asked several budget experts this question, and no one seems to know. No administration has ever had to decide which parts of a presidential inauguration are considered “essential” government services during a shutdown.)
Nevertheless, this sequence of events makes complete sense if you’ve read Trump’s best-selling memoir, “The Art of the Deal,” or looked at any of his prior business, political or diplomatic negotiations. His favorite negotiating tactic is blowing up an (ostensibly) settled deal at the 11th hour. He thinks that’s how he gains the “leverage” he needs to force a counterparty to make some painful, valuable concession.
But there are (at least) three problems with this strategy in the context of the stopgap spending package.
The first is that the counterparty in this scenario is his own party. Trump and Musk are negotiating against their fellow Republicans, including House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana), who appears to have been blindsided by the last-minute Musk eruption. Johnson put together the deal, after all, with necessary Democratic support because the GOP house majority is so slim (and the Senate is still controlled by Democrats).
The second problem is that Trump and Musk do not seem to understand the concept of “repeated play.” If you can’t be trusted to keep your word on a handshake deal, people act accordingly the next time they negotiate with you. Or maybe they refuse to negotiate with you at all. Which might be an indicator of how congressional negotiations will go next term, when Trump returns to office and Republicans have an even thinner margin in the House.
Finally, the biggest problem is that Trump and Musk seem to have no idea what their demands are. They want leverage for a concession, but they struggle to articulate what that concession would be. How do you negotiate with someone who doesn’t know what they want?
This has been a problem before with the modern Republican Party. GOP lawmakers often know they don’t like some offer on the table, but they can’t come up with a desirable counteroffer. They just think making an ultimatum is a cool power flex, something that might impress their voters. In this case, maybe the concession is an increase in the debt limit (which some GOP lawmakers have shot down). Or maybe, as Musk tweeted, it’s just … doing nothing at all? At least until Trump moves into the White House again.
So congrats, Co-Presidents Trusk. You’ve already ultimatumed yourselves into oblivion.
Why? Because President-elect Donald Trump and his unelected co-president, Elon Musk, have accidentally “Art of the Deal”-ed themselves.
Make sense of the latest news and debates with our daily newsletter
Trump is widely expected to “shake things up,” which appears to be a euphemism for indiscriminate destruction. He hasn’t even been sworn in yet, but with another erratic egomaniac billionaire now assisting him in his shake-up (and occasional shakedown), he’s already ahead of schedule.
Funding to keep basic government operations running expires on Saturday. Lawmakers have spent the past few weeks negotiating a relatively banal, bipartisan spending agreement to keep the lights on until March 14 at current funding levels with a handful of other elements added in (hurricane relief funding, a potential cost-of-living adjustment for lawmakers’ pay, etc.).
Until recently, Trump had ignored these negotiations entirely. But early on Wednesday, Musk decided it was time to start breaking things, so he posted a tirade of incoherent and often outright false complaints about the deal, demanding that it be nuked.
Follow Catherine Rampell
He then added that no legislation should pass until Trump is sworn in on Jan. 20. This would mean a federal government shutdown for about a month (at least). He might get his wish: The original bill died; a replacement bill failed in a House vote Thursday night; and Vice President-elect JD Vance and Trump seemed to cheer on the wreckage, suggesting maybe a shutdown isn’t so bad after all. “If there is going to be a shutdown of government, let it begin now, under the Biden Administration,” Trump posted on TruthSocial.
It might seem difficult to understand how Musk or Trump could possibly view an extended shutdown — especially one lasting through the inauguration — as a favorable outcome. Shutdowns cost the government money, since winding down operations (and then ramping them back up) is expensive. They also weigh on the overall economy; a five-week, partial government shutdown starting in December 2018 reduced U.S. gross domestic product by $3 billion, the Congressional Budget Office estimated. This was the lasting cost even after everything was turned back on.
A shutdown would probably also present political challenges. Usually an incoming administration wants some breathing room in its first few days to focus on its own priorities, not to enter office amid chaos. It’s also unclear how a government shutdown might affect the pageantry of the inauguration, which clearly matters to Trump. (I’ve asked several budget experts this question, and no one seems to know. No administration has ever had to decide which parts of a presidential inauguration are considered “essential” government services during a shutdown.)
Nevertheless, this sequence of events makes complete sense if you’ve read Trump’s best-selling memoir, “The Art of the Deal,” or looked at any of his prior business, political or diplomatic negotiations. His favorite negotiating tactic is blowing up an (ostensibly) settled deal at the 11th hour. He thinks that’s how he gains the “leverage” he needs to force a counterparty to make some painful, valuable concession.
But there are (at least) three problems with this strategy in the context of the stopgap spending package.
The first is that the counterparty in this scenario is his own party. Trump and Musk are negotiating against their fellow Republicans, including House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana), who appears to have been blindsided by the last-minute Musk eruption. Johnson put together the deal, after all, with necessary Democratic support because the GOP house majority is so slim (and the Senate is still controlled by Democrats).
The second problem is that Trump and Musk do not seem to understand the concept of “repeated play.” If you can’t be trusted to keep your word on a handshake deal, people act accordingly the next time they negotiate with you. Or maybe they refuse to negotiate with you at all. Which might be an indicator of how congressional negotiations will go next term, when Trump returns to office and Republicans have an even thinner margin in the House.
Finally, the biggest problem is that Trump and Musk seem to have no idea what their demands are. They want leverage for a concession, but they struggle to articulate what that concession would be. How do you negotiate with someone who doesn’t know what they want?
This has been a problem before with the modern Republican Party. GOP lawmakers often know they don’t like some offer on the table, but they can’t come up with a desirable counteroffer. They just think making an ultimatum is a cool power flex, something that might impress their voters. In this case, maybe the concession is an increase in the debt limit (which some GOP lawmakers have shot down). Or maybe, as Musk tweeted, it’s just … doing nothing at all? At least until Trump moves into the White House again.
So congrats, Co-Presidents Trusk. You’ve already ultimatumed yourselves into oblivion.
