The Trump White House was warned that harsh sanctions on Venezuela could accelerate that country’s economic collapse and speed an exodus of millions of migrants to neighboring nations, according to three current and former U.S. government officials.
The Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis delivered the classified assessments — part of a broader examination of how Venezuela’s economic implosion could affect migration in Latin America — to the White House National Security Council and the top two DHS officials in at least four reports between 2017 and 2019, the people said.
The Trump administration nevertheless imposed some of the harshest economic penalties in U.S. history on Venezuela in response to documented human rights abuses, extrajudicial killings and corruption by the regime of dictator Nicolás Maduro. The sanctions are fiercely defended by proponents, who say they were a necessary response to one of the most brutal crackdowns on civilians in two decades.
Today, however, Maduro remains in power, and a surge in Venezuelan immigrants has emerged as a flash point in the U.S. presidential election. Though Venezuelan mass migration to the United States only began after President Biden took office, concern among Trump officials about the sanctions’ potential effects, including on migration, was more extensive than previously known, according to interviews with more than two dozen current and former U.S. officials.
“This is the point I made at the time: I said the sanctions were going to grind the Venezuelan economy into dust and have huge human consequences, one of which would be out-migration,” said Thomas Shannon, who served as undersecretary for political affairs at the State Department under President Donald Trump.
“The sanctions clearly helped generate faster out-migration,” Shannon said. “And you knew it was only going to be a matter of time before these people decided to migrate north.”
U.S. sanctions have surged in the past two decades and are in effect in some form in almost a third of all countries. In the case of Venezuela, U.S. officials were — and remain — sharply torn over the financial fusillade.
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Proponents, such as former top Trump aide John Bolton, defend the sanctions as a critically important, though unsuccessful, effort to force out Maduro, or at least limit the funds at his disposal. Venezuelans had already started fleeing before the sanctions were imposed, they stress, escaping an economic crisis rooted not in U.S. penalties but in mismanagement by Maduro and his predecessor, authoritarian leader Hugo Chávez.
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But other former Trump officials, particularly at the State and Treasury departments, say it is clear U.S. sanctions aggravated an already dire situation with little clear upside. Venezuela’s economy contracted by a staggering 71 percent from 2012 to 2020 — the largest such drop in modern history for a country not at war — as the U.S. impeded its oil industry and curtailed access to international markets.
More than 7 million Venezuelan migrants have left the country since the start of the economic crisis, which began in 2014, before the sanctions. Migrants initially went to neighboring countries, such as Colombia and Peru. Many later joined others headed to the United States, where federal border authorities have encountered more than 800,000 Venezuelans since 2021. Some federal officials were concerned about that risk before the sanctions were imposed — although multiple factors, including the effects of the pandemic, have driven Venezuelans to the U.S., and their numbers only spiked after Biden took office.
The fallout in Venezuela underscores the difficulties of the U.S. money war, which forces officials to balance between trying to punish bad actors abroad and limiting the damage to innocent civilians.
The Biden administration temporarily lifted key sanctions on Venezuela last year in exchange for promises from Maduro to allow a competitive presidential election, which is set to take place on Sunday. But because Maduro has failed to follow through on most of his commitments, the Biden administration reimposed the sanctions.
The Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis delivered the classified assessments — part of a broader examination of how Venezuela’s economic implosion could affect migration in Latin America — to the White House National Security Council and the top two DHS officials in at least four reports between 2017 and 2019, the people said.
The Trump administration nevertheless imposed some of the harshest economic penalties in U.S. history on Venezuela in response to documented human rights abuses, extrajudicial killings and corruption by the regime of dictator Nicolás Maduro. The sanctions are fiercely defended by proponents, who say they were a necessary response to one of the most brutal crackdowns on civilians in two decades.
Today, however, Maduro remains in power, and a surge in Venezuelan immigrants has emerged as a flash point in the U.S. presidential election. Though Venezuelan mass migration to the United States only began after President Biden took office, concern among Trump officials about the sanctions’ potential effects, including on migration, was more extensive than previously known, according to interviews with more than two dozen current and former U.S. officials.
“This is the point I made at the time: I said the sanctions were going to grind the Venezuelan economy into dust and have huge human consequences, one of which would be out-migration,” said Thomas Shannon, who served as undersecretary for political affairs at the State Department under President Donald Trump.
“The sanctions clearly helped generate faster out-migration,” Shannon said. “And you knew it was only going to be a matter of time before these people decided to migrate north.”
U.S. sanctions have surged in the past two decades and are in effect in some form in almost a third of all countries. In the case of Venezuela, U.S. officials were — and remain — sharply torn over the financial fusillade.
🌎
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Proponents, such as former top Trump aide John Bolton, defend the sanctions as a critically important, though unsuccessful, effort to force out Maduro, or at least limit the funds at his disposal. Venezuelans had already started fleeing before the sanctions were imposed, they stress, escaping an economic crisis rooted not in U.S. penalties but in mismanagement by Maduro and his predecessor, authoritarian leader Hugo Chávez.
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The Money War
The U.S. government is putting more sanctions on foreign governments, companies and people than ever. But these powerful tools of economic warfare can have unintended consequences, hurting civilian populations and undermining U.S. foreign policy interests. The Money War investigates the proliferation of U.S. financial sanctions and the dangers of overuse.End of carousel
But other former Trump officials, particularly at the State and Treasury departments, say it is clear U.S. sanctions aggravated an already dire situation with little clear upside. Venezuela’s economy contracted by a staggering 71 percent from 2012 to 2020 — the largest such drop in modern history for a country not at war — as the U.S. impeded its oil industry and curtailed access to international markets.
More than 7 million Venezuelan migrants have left the country since the start of the economic crisis, which began in 2014, before the sanctions. Migrants initially went to neighboring countries, such as Colombia and Peru. Many later joined others headed to the United States, where federal border authorities have encountered more than 800,000 Venezuelans since 2021. Some federal officials were concerned about that risk before the sanctions were imposed — although multiple factors, including the effects of the pandemic, have driven Venezuelans to the U.S., and their numbers only spiked after Biden took office.
The fallout in Venezuela underscores the difficulties of the U.S. money war, which forces officials to balance between trying to punish bad actors abroad and limiting the damage to innocent civilians.
The Biden administration temporarily lifted key sanctions on Venezuela last year in exchange for promises from Maduro to allow a competitive presidential election, which is set to take place on Sunday. But because Maduro has failed to follow through on most of his commitments, the Biden administration reimposed the sanctions.
