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Tuesday’s RPI games - best/worst scenario

AuroraHawk

HR Heisman
Dec 18, 2004
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Iowa can gain 26.2 RPI points today if all of its previous opponents win their scheduled games. If all of Iowa’s previous opponents lose, Iowa would lose 27.5 RPI points.

The team immediately ahead of Iowa, UCF, plays its version of WIU tonight (Bethune Cookman). It will lose 15 RPI points even if it wins. Lots of other games impacting UCF’s RPI tonight. I’d be surprised if UCF is ahead of Iowa tomorrow morning.

The next team ahead, FSU, has a double header against Jacksonville today. We should be pulling for at least a split.

As for holding off Virginia (Iowa holds a 6 point lead), they have a fair number of games impacting their RPI - similar to Iowa’s situation.

Iowa leads VCU and Texas by 12. If Texas beats Texas State tonight, they stand a good chance of passing Iowa and VCU only has other games impacting its score.

Will be interesting to see how things shuffle after tonight’s games.
 
And, FWIW, Warren Nolan’s “predictor” now provides a prediction of Iowa’s RPI if it sweeps MSU, beats WIU and takes 2 of 3 at Maryland. If that happens, Nolan has Iowa finishing regular season with a 41 RPI.

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2019/team-predict-schedule?team=Iowa

Again ... simply a FWIW. However, it goes to show that Iowa, for the most part, controls its destiny. Win games and they should be a tournament team. Stumble and its going to be a white knuckler on selection day.
 
And, FWIW, Warren Nolan’s “predictor” now provides a prediction of Iowa’s RPI if it sweeps MSU, beats WIU and takes 2 of 3 at Maryland. If that happens, Nolan has Iowa finishing regular season with a 41 RPI.

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2019/team-predict-schedule?team=Iowa

Again ... simply a FWIW. However, it goes to show that Iowa, for the most part, controls its destiny. Win games and they should be a tournament team. Stumble and its going to be a white knuckler on selection day.
A Sparty sweep won't be as easy as we think based on their record. Stats look pedestrian however thought I'd read the last several games their pitching has been much better. We really need a sweep, let's go Hawks!
 
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A Sparty sweep won't be as easy as we think based on their record. Stats look pedestrian however thought I'd read the last several games their pitching has been much better. We really need a sweep, let's go Hawks!

Indiana didn’t sweep MSU. It’s going to be a fight. Going to need great efforts from McDonald, Baumann and Judkins. Bats will need to show up.
 
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One interesting RPI tidbit, btw, the WarrenNolan site is very well done, great stuff there...but Iowa's # of Quad 1 wins (9) are more than approximately 33 teams above it in the RPI rankings!

Iowa currently sits at RPI #56 and I realize not everyone's schedule is controllable and quality of competition isn't balanced but this is exactly why the RPI is still flawed and the committee should really dig into Iowa's "team sheet". What, in everyone's opinion is the "cut line" RPI for at large? 55? Wonder if there's recent history on this, didn't think I'd ever dig into college baseball RPI like we used to with basketball!
 
The DMR’s article on Friday touched on this a bit. One person interviewed felt that a RPI in the 60s really makes it tough for Iowa. The person felt that Iowa needed to keep the RPI aim the 50s.

Pure speculation on my part but I love Iowa getting into d1 Baseball’s Top 25. That’s the ranking used in the official NCAA site and if think that - if Iowa can stay in the Top 25 (or just on outside of Top 25) - Iowa’s chances are pretty good.

Of course, to stay in Top 25, Iowa will have to keep winning. If Iowa keeps winning, the RPI will take care of itself.

I think Iowa has played itself into largely controlling its fate. Gotta take out MSU and WIU. Then it’s off to Maryland. Win the series and they have a strong resume.
 
The DMR’s article on Friday touched on this a bit. One person interviewed felt that a RPI in the 60s really makes it tough for Iowa. The person felt that Iowa needed to keep the RPI aim the 50s.

Pure speculation on my part but I love Iowa getting into d1 Baseball’s Top 25. That’s the ranking used in the official NCAA site and if think that - if Iowa can stay in the Top 25 (or just on outside of Top 25) - Iowa’s chances are pretty good.

Of course, to stay in Top 25, Iowa will have to keep winning. If Iowa keeps winning, the RPI will take care of itself.

I think Iowa has played itself into largely controlling its fate. Gotta take out MSU and WIU. Then it’s off to Maryland. Win the series and they have a strong resume.
Exactly and D1baseball and Kendall Rogers love them some #Hellerball right now! Lots of posts over the weekend about the strength of Iowa's resume, Heller's coaching job and UIBaseball.

Mich fans were complaining about Iowa being ranked and he told them to dig into the Hawks resume! Pretty crazy that here in Omaha, we will potentially have Nebraska, Creighton and Omaha all projected in regionals with Iowa right there too! Looking forward to a much better Big Ten Tourney at TDA in a few weeks!
 
Iowa can gain 26.2 RPI points today if all of its previous opponents win their scheduled games. If all of Iowa’s previous opponents lose, Iowa would lose 27.5 RPI points.

The team immediately ahead of Iowa, UCF, plays its version of WIU tonight (Bethune Cookman). It will lose 15 RPI points even if it wins. Lots of other games impacting UCF’s RPI tonight. I’d be surprised if UCF is ahead of Iowa tomorrow morning.

The next team ahead, FSU, has a double header against Jacksonville today. We should be pulling for at least a split.

As for holding off Virginia (Iowa holds a 6 point lead), they have a fair number of games impacting their RPI - similar to Iowa’s situation.

Iowa leads VCU and Texas by 12. If Texas beats Texas State tonight, they stand a good chance of passing Iowa and VCU only has other games impacting its score.

Will be interesting to see how things shuffle after tonight’s games.
Thank you for taking the time to research this and explain it all here. Appreciate it....

Go Hawks!!!
 
And, FWIW, Warren Nolan’s “predictor” now provides a prediction of Iowa’s RPI if it sweeps MSU, beats WIU and takes 2 of 3 at Maryland. If that happens, Nolan has Iowa finishing regular season with a 41 RPI.

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2019/team-predict-schedule?team=Iowa

Again ... simply a FWIW. However, it goes to show that Iowa, for the most part, controls its destiny. Win games and they should be a tournament team. Stumble and its going to be a white knuckler on selection day.

The other day the predictor had Iowa winning 2/3 from MSU, beating WIU, and taking 2/3 at Maryland and finishing with an RPI of 57. The predictor is wildly volatile.

One interesting RPI tidbit, btw, the WarrenNolan site is very well done, great stuff there...but Iowa's # of Quad 1 wins (9) are more than approximately 33 teams above it in the RPI rankings!

Iowa currently sits at RPI #56 and I realize not everyone's schedule is controllable and quality of competition isn't balanced but this is exactly why the RPI is still flawed and the committee should really dig into Iowa's "team sheet". What, in everyone's opinion is the "cut line" RPI for at large? 55? Wonder if there's recent history on this, didn't think I'd ever dig into college baseball RPI like we used to with basketball!

With the 9 Q1 wins, Iowa should get some benefit of the doubt when it comes to the committee. No other bubble team will be able to touch it. If the WWL, W, WWL scenario plays out and they finish anywhere in the 50s, I think they're a shoe in. I wouldn't rule out a low 60 being good enough if they finish 5-2.
 
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The other day the predictor had Iowa winning 2/3 from MSU, beating WIU, and taking 2/3 at Maryland and finishing with an RPI of 57. The predictor is wildly volatile.



With the 9 Q1 wins, Iowa should get some benefit of the doubt when it comes to the committee. No other bubble team will be able to touch it. If the WWL, W, WWL scenario plays out and they finish anywhere in the 50s, I think they're a shoe in. I wouldn't rule out a low 60 being good enough if they finish 5-2.

Exactly, especially after Okie State's last weekend run and Iowa holding a big series win over them. In fact, in a good number of those 33ish cases where we hold an advantage in Q1 wins, it's significant, like 3-5 more wins, not just 1 here and there.

We will probably get another shot at a Quad 1 win or 2 in the Big Ten tourney if we tangle with Neb/Indiana/Ilinois/Michigan. Good times...
 
The other day the predictor had Iowa winning 2/3 from MSU, beating WIU, and taking 2/3 at Maryland and finishing with an RPI of 57. The predictor is wildly volatile.

I saw that as well. I use the "predictor" tab on his site to not "predict" the actual outcomes of games but to "predict" Iowa's final RPI based upon the permutation of possible results.

This is a great example.

"Prediction" No. 1: 2/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 2/3 from Maryland = 57 RPI.
"Prediction" No. 2: 3/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 2/3 from Maryland = 41 RPI.

Just goes to show you how much one loss against the Spartans could impact the final RPI.
 
Exactly and D1baseball and Kendall Rogers love them some #Hellerball right now! Lots of posts over the weekend about the strength of Iowa's resume, Heller's coaching job and UIBaseball.

Mich fans were complaining about Iowa being ranked and he told them to dig into the Hawks resume! Pretty crazy that here in Omaha, we will potentially have Nebraska, Creighton and Omaha all projected in regionals with Iowa right there too! Looking forward to a much better Big Ten Tourney at TDA in a few weeks!

He responded to some Illinois fans complaints as well. I'll add this . . . this Iowa team has a fair amount of "warts." Its pitching is not deep; it lacks a really great bat or two; its now missing a key defensive player (Boe) and it has had to overcome some key injuries.

Here's Baseball America's 2019 B1G Preview: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2019-big-ten-college-baseball-preview/
Notice how prominently Iowa appears in BA's projections.

College Baseball Daily's preseason report: http://www.collegebaseballdaily.com...daily-season-preview-and-predictions-big-ten/

d1 Baseball's B1G preview: https://d1baseball.com/season-preview/2019-conference-previews-big-ten/

Yet, somehow, Iowa is right there in the mix. Heller continues to demonstrate great value to the Iowa program. An absolute jewel in the Athletic Department.
 
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I saw that as well. I use the "predictor" tab on his site to not "predict" the actual outcomes of games but to "predict" Iowa's final RPI based upon the permutation of possible results.

This is a great example.

"Prediction" No. 1: 2/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 2/3 from Maryland = 57 RPI.
"Prediction" No. 2: 3/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 2/3 from Maryland = 41 RPI.

Just goes to show you how much one loss against the Spartans could impact the final RPI.
Wow! 16 point loss with a Sparty loss, ouch...if that is true it could be the sole reason to keep Iowa out (57 vs. 41 RPI), however this is a very fluid metric and Iowa could still have some boosting games in the conf. tourney. Other team games can and will affect too and as I mentioned above, the eye test and team sheet needs to be under a heavy microscope!
 
He responded to some Illinois fans complaints as well. I'll add this . . . this Iowa team has a fair amount of "warts." Its pitching is not deep; it lacks a really great bat or two; its now missing a key defensive player (Boe) and it has had to overcome some key injuries.

Here's Baseball America's 2019 B1G Preview: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2019-big-ten-college-baseball-preview/
Notice how prominently Iowa appears in BA's projections.

College Baseball Daily's preseason report: http://www.collegebaseballdaily.com...daily-season-preview-and-predictions-big-ten/

d1 Baseball's B1G preview: https://d1baseball.com/season-preview/2019-conference-previews-big-ten/

Yet, somehow, Iowa is right there in the mix. Heller continues to demonstrate great value to the Iowa program. An absolute jewel in the Athletic Department.
Imagine a Jake Adams bat in this lineup along with P Dreyer and a healthy Boe for the homestretch!
 
Yet, somehow, Iowa is right there in the mix. Heller continues to demonstrate great value to the Iowa program. An absolute jewel in the Athletic Department.

Heller always finds a way. Graduation, the draft, injuries, nothing really holds back Hellerball.
 
I saw that as well. I use the "predictor" tab on his site to not "predict" the actual outcomes of games but to "predict" Iowa's final RPI based upon the permutation of possible results.

This is a great example.

"Prediction" No. 1: 2/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 2/3 from Maryland = 57 RPI.
"Prediction" No. 2: 3/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 2/3 from Maryland = 41 RPI.

Just goes to show you how much one loss against the Spartans could impact the final RPI.

Well . . . just checked Warren Nolan's site again while I'm half-listening to a phone conference which does not require my rapt attention.

We can update the potential scenarios as Nolan's prediction tab now shows the results if Iowa wins 2/3 from MSU; beats WIU and wins 1/3 from Maryland.

Prediction" No. 1: 2/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 2/3 from Maryland = 57 RPI.
Prediction" No. 2: 3/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 2/3 from Maryland = 41 RPI.
Prediction" No. 3: 2/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 1/3 from Maryland = 62 RPI.
 
Well . . . just checked Warren Nolan's site again while I'm half-listening to a phone conference which does not require my rapt attention.

We can update the potential scenarios as Nolan's prediction tab now shows the results if Iowa wins 2/3 from MSU; beats WIU and wins 1/3 from Maryland.

Prediction" No. 1: 2/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 2/3 from Maryland = 57 RPI.
Prediction" No. 2: 3/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 2/3 from Maryland = 41 RPI.
Prediction" No. 3: 2/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 1/3 from Maryland = 62 RPI.
1 and 2 we're in.

3 we're firmly on the bubble. A win in the B1G tourney likely puts Iowa in. A loss could knock them out.

I'd like to see 4 where we sweep MSU and 1/3 from Maryland. I'm guessing RPI would be in the 50s and we'd be in.
 
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Another update:

Prediction" No. 1: 2/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 2/3 from Maryland = 57 RPI.
Prediction" No. 2: 3/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 2/3 from Maryland = 41 RPI.
Prediction" No. 3: 2/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 1/3 from Maryland = 62 RPI.
Prediction” No. 4: 2/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 0/3 from Maryland = 73 RPI.
 
Iowa can gain 26.2 RPI points today if all of its previous opponents win their scheduled games. If all of Iowa’s previous opponents lose, Iowa would lose 27.5 RPI points.

The team immediately ahead of Iowa, UCF, plays its version of WIU tonight (Bethune Cookman). It will lose 15 RPI points even if it wins. Lots of other games impacting UCF’s RPI tonight. I’d be surprised if UCF is ahead of Iowa tomorrow morning.

The next team ahead, FSU, has a double header against Jacksonville today. We should be pulling for at least a split.

As for holding off Virginia (Iowa holds a 6 point lead), they have a fair number of games impacting their RPI - similar to Iowa’s situation.

Iowa leads VCU and Texas by 12. If Texas beats Texas State tonight, they stand a good chance of passing Iowa and VCU only has other games impacting its score.

Will be interesting to see how things shuffle after tonight’s games.

First result is in and Rutgers drops a 4-3 contest to Villanova. Iowa loses RPI points. Virginia, on the other hand, gains RPI points with Villanova's win - passing Iowa. Iowa flips positions with Virginia and now trails Virginia by 4 points. Virginia would also benefit from FSU beating Jacksonville (DH) and FSU is up 3-0 late in G1.
 
1 and 2 we're in.

3 we're firmly on the bubble. A win in the B1G tourney likely puts Iowa in. A loss could knock them out.

I'd like to see 4 where we sweep MSU and 1/3 from Maryland. I'm guessing RPI would be in the 50s and we'd be in.

57 RPI I think you have to win once in the btt
 
Iowa can gain 26.2 RPI points today if all of its previous opponents win their scheduled games. If all of Iowa’s previous opponents lose, Iowa would lose 27.5 RPI points.

The team immediately ahead of Iowa, UCF, plays its version of WIU tonight (Bethune Cookman). It will lose 15 RPI points even if it wins. Lots of other games impacting UCF’s RPI tonight. I’d be surprised if UCF is ahead of Iowa tomorrow morning.

The next team ahead, FSU, has a double header against Jacksonville today. We should be pulling for at least a split.

As for holding off Virginia (Iowa holds a 6 point lead), they have a fair number of games impacting their RPI - similar to Iowa’s situation.

Iowa leads VCU and Texas by 12. If Texas beats Texas State tonight, they stand a good chance of passing Iowa and VCU only has other games impacting its score.

Will be interesting to see how things shuffle after tonight’s games.

Bad night for Iowa’s previous opponents. I think that only Purdue won their game. Every other team lost.
 
Bad night for Iowa’s previous opponents. I think that only Purdue won their game. Every other team lost.

RPI had spiked to 55 then fell to 58. Long story short at the end of the day worry about ourselves and not Rutgers and Purdue. Yes the help would be nice, but won’t determine the ultimate outcome.
 
RPI had spiked to 55 then fell to 58. Long story short at the end of the day worry about ourselves and not Rutgers and Purdue. Yes the help would be nice, but won’t determine the ultimate outcome.
Agreed and one thing to watch is Nebraska, who plays ASU this weekend at home, both teams in the 40s so if Nebraska wins that series, that will help the Hawks as well.

Fun time of year and very frustrating for fans watching RPI numbers go up and down at will, however as noted in another thread the baseball pundits feel the Hawks have a very strong resume. Heck, look at Michigan, I don't think they have anything close to Iowa's resume (series win vs. a regional at large team), so we have that going for us...which is nice...:)
 
RPI had spiked to 55 then fell to 58. Long story short at the end of the day worry about ourselves and not Rutgers and Purdue. Yes the help would be nice, but won’t determine the ultimate outcome.
Yes but we can't have teams continue to tank down the stretch. If teams keep going 1-3 or 0-4 each week, that can cause Iowa to lose 6-20 points in the RPI. If multiple teams keep tanking it will have a major impact on Iowa's RPI regardless of what Iowa does.

On a side note, on April 29 UC Irvine started the week 42nd in the RPI. They still sit at 48 after losing to CS Fullerton (100), losing 2 of 3 at Iowa (58), and dropping a game at San Diego (94) last night.
 
Yes but we can't have teams continue to tank down the stretch. If teams keep going 1-3 or 0-4 each week, that can cause Iowa to lose 6-20 points in the RPI. If multiple teams keep tanking it will have a major impact on Iowa's RPI regardless of what Iowa does.

On a side note, on April 29 UC Irvine started the week 42nd in the RPI. They still sit at 48 after losing to CS Fullerton (100), losing 2 of 3 at Iowa (58), and dropping a game at San Diego (94) last night.

That shows how skewed home vs road is in baseballs RPI
 
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Another update:

Prediction" No. 1: 2/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 2/3 from Maryland = 57 RPI.
Prediction" No. 2: 3/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 2/3 from Maryland = 41 RPI.
Prediction" No. 3: 2/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 1/3 from Maryland = 62 RPI.
Prediction” No. 4: 2/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 0/3 from Maryland = 73 RPI.
Prediction” No. 5: 3/3 from MSU; lose to WIU and 1/3 from Maryland = 63 RPI.
 
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Another update:

Prediction" No. 1: 2/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 2/3 from Maryland = 57 RPI.
Prediction" No. 2: 3/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 2/3 from Maryland = 41 RPI.
Prediction" No. 3: 2/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 1/3 from Maryland = 62 RPI.
Prediction” No. 4: 2/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 0/3 from Maryland = 73 RPI.
Prediction” No. 5: 3/3 from MSU; lose to WIU and 1/3 from Maryland = 63 RPI.
In conclusion, sweeping MSU makes Iowa's road infinitely easier.
 
Another update:

Prediction" No. 1: 2/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 2/3 from Maryland = 57 RPI.
Prediction" No. 2: 3/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 2/3 from Maryland = 41 RPI.
Prediction" No. 3: 2/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 1/3 from Maryland = 62 RPI.
Prediction” No. 4: 2/3 from MSU; beat WIU and 0/3 from Maryland = 73 RPI.
Prediction” No. 5: 3/3 from MSU; lose to WIU and 1/3 from Maryland = 63 RPI.

Prediction No. 2 has been updated on Nolan's site to result in a RPI of 51.
 
Prediction No. 2 has been updated on Nolan's site to result in a RPI of 51.
Prediction 5 has been updated to result in a RPI of 70.

My reference may be off but isn't there something called the "butterfly effect?" Something to the effect of an event having consequences on other events. Seems like that may be what happens with Nolan's prediction model. That games played by other teams which seemingly have no relation to Iowa end up impacting other ratings which impact other ratings which impact other ratings . . . and so on and so on and so on.
 
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