A lot better than expected. Another big stimulus package is probably off the table.
Stock market is neutral on the news so far.
Stock market is neutral on the news so far.
Unemployment rate falls to 8.4%
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That number has to be that high because of the service industry. Most manufacturers are begging for people that actually want to put in a full day's work everyday.
A little side note: If Trump is reelected the odds are good we will see the biggest up day in history for equities sometime in the next four years. And it won't just be a one day wonder.
A little side note: If Trump is reelected the odds are good we will see the biggest up day in history for equities sometime in the next four years. And it won't just be a one day wonder.
Next months numbers will include the airline layoffs. Will not be so rosy.
Unemployment for African Americans is 13%.
In addition, permanent job losses increased by more than half a million to 3.4 million. More than 8 million Americans have been unemployed for 15 weeks or more.
It’s not all rosy.
In addition, permanent job losses increased by more than half a million to 3.4 million. More than 8 million Americans have been unemployed for 15 weeks or more.
It’s not all rosy.
I hope you are right about the stimulus. This is actually a really good number. But, yes. There are still more layoffs, quite a bit actually, on the horizon.
Black HS dropout rates are around 2X higher than White dropout rates. They have fewer job skills, so that is a problem.
Goes back to kids growing up without both parents in the home.
Also, when my kids graduated from an inner city H.S. (Davenport Central), you saw a big difference by race in the number of people that graduated with AP courses. Blacks just are not as prepared for the workforce. To drive this point home. I was sitting in a manufacturing facility. For assembly operations they had a very simple test to be interviewed. They had about ten questions, but they were pretty simple. Picture of a measuring tape. Mark 5/8". Another was add 1/2 and 3/4 and 1/8. Incredible. The receptionist said that test knocked out about 1/2 of the applicants.
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Fed has already said it will prop up the economy no matter what and that it won't care about inflation. Meanwhile it's buying distressed assets and specifically rescuing businesses that should be allowed to sink, like the fossil fuel companies (which also got an indecent share of the bailout money).
What more can they do?
With both DOW and NASDAQ down around 500 points at the moment, I wonder if the market is worried that these unemployment numbers have improved Trump's odds?
I mean what more can Trump do for them? He's already given them massive tax cuts and crippled regulations. Even the bankers and brokers are probably ready for a sane President, if he can't do much more to line their pockets.
Good question. A lot of variables to weigh, when stocks were priced to perfection. A Biden win with a GOP Senate is the only bad scenario for stocks.
I've heard the opposite as being true, with a Biden win and GOP Senate seen as being an ideal scenario for markets. It will keep any new taxes or legislative regulations largely off the table and force Biden to stay in the center. Aside from things like stimulus and infrastructure spending, the markets prefer D.C. gridlock to most anything else.
Better to just rid yourself of the thought that the broader stock market reacts to unemployment figures
In other news, apparently wages (for those who still have jobs) are considerably up.
Inflation ahead?
We've all seen price inflation for most things (not gas, but most other things). The combo of price and wage inflation sounds a little scary to me.
Inflation ahead?
We've all seen price inflation for most things (not gas, but most other things). The combo of price and wage inflation sounds a little scary to me.
It's not a bad scenario but it takes fiscal stimulus out of the equation (See Obama after 2010).
The “stock market” numbers are no where an accurate reflection on America’s economy. The Fed is 100% responsible for it. As a I have mentioned before, investing and banking is made much easier when money is free and there is a larger supply of it than what can be used.
This utopia of finance will never last. There is going to be a reality hitting America some day. America has never economically functioned based on its production since the early 2000s...Congress took its eye off the ball initially and let Wall Street gamble blindly with other people’s money...and then The Fed became involved and has run the nation’s economy ever since by suppressing interest rates and printing money. America has been tight-rope walking its economy ever since. The Fed did what it was organized to do...keep America out of a depression, but that comes with a steep price. A price that most Americans would prefer not to accept.
Thats great the unemployment is dropping.
Anyone interested in how much debt this "spending our way out" is saddling the future with? You fix a bad economy with spending. When the economy is strong, you should be saving to the downturns, not what we have been doing the last 3 + years.
Anyone interested in how much debt this "spending our way out" is saddling the future with? You fix a bad economy with spending. When the economy is strong, you should be saving to the downturns, not what we have been doing the last 3 + years.
Inflation, for the time being, is a non issue. We had more deflation concerns in March-June than inflation, which is why the fed, correctly I might add, did what they did. However, inflation is a huge concern in the next 12-24 months.
The fed did what they did to encourage borrowing and spending. What has actually happened is hoarding of cash by institutions and consumers alike. Eventually, those flood gates could open and the fed will be forced to tighten. They may actually need to start tightening sooner rather than later. This, IMO, is why the markets are reacting the way they are today. Chances of another round of stimulus should be off the table for the time being.
Yes I am suggesting that. By growing its balance sheet it lowers interest rates, which boosts asset prices. Not that debatable really.
Historically, the strongest markets have been Dem presidents with GOP Congress. I don’t have the link for that but my department’s chief investment strategist told us that at our meeting last week. Thought it was interesting.
That’s not juicing the markets. That is called stabilizing credit markets and liquidity. And you are correct, it’s not debatable.
This is something that very few people are talking about but could become a real problem in the timeframe you are laying out there.
It is crazy how little it is really being discussed. People just assume this is a problem for years down the road. It’s not. And when you realize the amount of cash being hoarded right now......... it’s a ticking time by mb IMO.
I think it was a bit of a mistake by the Fed to say they are ok with letting inflation "run hot" for a bit. I guess it depends on how long they plan on doing that. I said it a while back but inflation is one of my biggest concerns for the 2020's.
They did several months back when they announced they would do everything in their power.
Now they've added not caring about inflation to the equation.
Not saying they were wrong to do so, because clearly the economy will be taking a slam that won't be gone overnight. But when interest rates are near zero, and it's not a good time to invest in new plants, new hires and such, where else can the money go but into the markets? Hence the surreal market surge even while we are tumbling into recession.
The flip side of that equation is if there's no place to play but the markets, yet the big players are pulling money out of the markets, where is it going?
I gotcha. When I say juicing the market, I mean directly and intentionally propping the market by buying equities. But no doubt the feds actions have lates a role in the markets bounce back.
To answer your question about where is that money going. They are hoarding cash to weather the rainy days they see ahead. Plain and simple. There is a shit load of cash out there right now. Inflation concerns for sure.
Lots of manufacturing jobs open. Problem is some people make more on unemployment than working so they aren’t going to give that up, that doesn’t apply to just black American either.
There are all kinds of red flage being raised and given how other agencies are being manipulated by the WH... I think it's reasonable to think the BLS is yet another being pushed by Trump to "doctor" the numbers.
As we read in the spring of 2019 regarding the overstatement of new jobs for the calendar year 2018... there is likely deception here. They reduced total jobs created by 500,000, or nearly 42,000 jobs per month.
The number of Covid jobs lost, permanently, is significant. Airline , hotel/hospitality, and travel being the hardest hit.
Mericans should be skeptical of everything from the Federal Govt given the corruption in the Trump administration.
As we read in the spring of 2019 regarding the overstatement of new jobs for the calendar year 2018... there is likely deception here. They reduced total jobs created by 500,000, or nearly 42,000 jobs per month.
The number of Covid jobs lost, permanently, is significant. Airline , hotel/hospitality, and travel being the hardest hit.
Mericans should be skeptical of everything from the Federal Govt given the corruption in the Trump administration.
A mall and office building near me that pre-COVID the parking structure was full and the surface lots were full too. Today I was out near the mall and I decided to see how it was, well the surface lot as nearly empty and the parking structure that is mainly for the connected office building was almost empty. While I realize that today is the Friday before a holiday weekend I wasn't expecting nearly empty parking lots and structure.
Additionally the number of closed or closing businesses near me is stunning. The "economy" is not doing as well as the federal government wants you to think it is.
