UPDATED after 2022 Title Game: No Team has made the Final Four in the Last 11 years with a Defense Ranked Worse than 70th in the Nation

Franisdaman

HR King
Nov 3, 2012
55,884
62,360
113
Heaven, Iowa
Based on the info in the orig post and on what follows, will Houston, Villanova or Kansas be our National Champion?


KenPom has been around for 19 National Champions. Of the 19 national champions tracked by KenPom:

* The lowest any finished in Offensive Efficiency was 39th (2014 UConn) and the lowest any finished in Defensive Efficiency was 22nd (2021 Baylor).

* 17 of the 19 national champions in the sample (89.4%) finished in the top 20 for both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency.


Here are the rankings of the Elite 8 teams as of today:


WEST REGIONAL FINAL (Saturday)
Off.....Def

53........11.....Arkansas (#16 team, per KenPom)
...2.......46....Duke (#8 team, per KenPom)

EAST REGIONAL FINAL (Sunday)
Off.....Def

.19........42.....North Carolina (#18 team, per KenPom)
216.......24.....St Peters (#99 team, per KenPom)

SOUTH REGIONAL FINAL (Saturday)
Off.....Def

...8........10.....Houston (#2 team, per KenPom)
...9........25.....Villanova (#10 team, per KenPom)

MIDWEST REGIONAL FINAL (Sunday)
Off.....Def

...6........22....Kansas (#5 team, per KenPom)
..18.......114...Miami FL (#35 team, per KenPom)
 
Last edited:

HawkRugged17

HR Legend
Aug 11, 2015
24,517
29,844
113
How many of these happened?

Looks like the Sweet 16 was half and half (defensive ratings in parentheses) ...

Lower D beats Higher D
Arkansas (14) beat Gonzaga (9)
Duke (43) beat Texas Tech (1)
Miami (123) beat ISU (5)
North Carolina (42) beat UCLA (13)

Higher D beats Lower D
St Peters (28) beat Purdue (89)
Houston (10) beat Arizona (18)
Villanova (30) beat Michigan (78)
Kansas (26) beat Providence (58)
 
  • Like
Reactions: Greenway4Prez

BBHawk

HR Legend
Oct 31, 2001
27,945
21,128
113
Iowa City
Looks like the Sweet 16 was half and half (defensive ratings in parentheses) ...

Lower D beats Higher D
Arkansas (14) beat Gonzaga (9)
Duke (43) beat Texas Tech (1)
Miami (123) beat ISU (5)
North Carolina (42) beat UCLA (13)

Higher D beats Lower D
St Peters (28) beat Purdue (89)
Houston (10) beat Arizona (18)
Villanova (30) beat Michigan (78)
Kansas (26) beat Providence (58)
So...it didn't matter?

😉
 

Franisdaman

HR King
Nov 3, 2012
55,884
62,360
113
Heaven, Iowa
Looks like the Sweet 16 was half and half (defensive ratings in parentheses) ...

Lower D beats Higher D
Arkansas (14) beat Gonzaga (9)
Duke (43) beat Texas Tech (1)
Miami (123) beat ISU (5)
North Carolina (42) beat UCLA (13)

Higher D beats Lower D
St Peters (28) beat Purdue (89)
Houston (10) beat Arizona (18)
Villanova (30) beat Michigan (78)
Kansas (26) beat Providence (58)



So...it didn't matter?

😉


Miami (#114 defense) is unlikely going to make the Final 4. 10 years of history has shown you need a defense #70 or better to make the Final 4.

The other 7 Elite 8 teams, coming into today, have a defense ranked #46 or better.


And as I mentioned above, KenPom has been around for 19 National Champions. Of the 19 national champions tracked by KenPom, the lowest any finished in Offensive Efficiency was 39th (2014 UConn) and the lowest any finished in Defensive Efficiency was 22nd (2021 Baylor).

Based on this, it appears that Houston, Villanova or Kansas will be our National Champion.

Here are the rankings of the Elite 8 teams as of today:


WEST REGIONAL FINAL (Saturday)
Off.....Def

53........11.....Arkansas (#16 team, per KenPom)
...2.......46....Duke (#8 team, per KenPom)


EAST REGIONAL FINAL (Sunday)
Off.....Def

.19........42.....North Carolina (#18 team, per KenPom)
216.......24.....St Peters (#99 team, per KenPom)


SOUTH REGIONAL FINAL (Saturday)
Off.....Def

...8........10.....Houston (#2 team, per KenPom)
...9........25.....Villanova (#10 team, per KenPom)


MIDWEST REGIONAL FINAL (Sunday)
Off.....Def

...6........22....Kansas (#5 team, per KenPom)
..18.......114...Miami FL (#35 team, per KenPom)
 

Franisdaman

HR King
Nov 3, 2012
55,884
62,360
113
Heaven, Iowa
Nova (25 D) beats Houston (10 D).

Villanova or Kansas will be our National Champion based on what follows.

KenPom has been around for 19 National Champions.

Of the 19 national champions tracked by KenPom, the lowest any finished in Offensive Efficiency was 39th (2014 UConn) and the lowest any finished in Defensive Efficiency was 22nd (2021 Baylor).

Only 2 teams remain that would fit this narrative.

* Villanova's Defense should be #22 or better if/when they win the National Championship (they currently have the #9 offense and the #25 defense).

* Kansas is already there: #6 offense, #22 defense
 

Franisdaman

HR King
Nov 3, 2012
55,884
62,360
113
Heaven, Iowa
Coming into today there are 6 teams left. Only Miami (#114) has a defense ranked worse than #70 in the country.


KemPom Rankings Heading into Today's Games:

WEST REGION
Off.....Def

...1.........45....Duke (#7 team, per KenPom)

EAST REGION
Off.....Def

.19........42.....North Carolina (#18 team, per KenPom)
216.......25.....St Peters (#98 team, per KenPom)

SOUTH REGION
Off.....Def

...9........17.....Villanova (#8 team, per KenPom)

MIDWEST REGION
Off.....Def

...6........23....Kansas (#5 team, per KenPom)
..18.......114...Miami FL (#35 team, per KenPom)
 

Franisdaman

HR King
Nov 3, 2012
55,884
62,360
113
Heaven, Iowa
IOWA (26-10) right now has the #4 offense & the #82 defense, which is simply not good enough to make a Final 4. Overall, IOWA is the #13 team, per KenPom.

KenPom has been around for 19 National Champions. Of the 19 National Champions tracked by KenPom:

* The lowest any finished in Offensive Efficiency was 39th (2014 UConn) and the lowest any finished in Defensive Efficiency was 22nd (2021 Baylor).

* 17 of the 19 national champions in the sample (89.4%) finished in the top 20 for both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency.


Expect the Villanova/Kansas winner to be your National Champion.



FINAL 4
KemPom Rankings:


WEST REGIONAL CHAMPION
Off.....Def

...1..........45....Duke, 32-6 (#8 team, per KenPom)

EAST REGIONAL CHAMPION
Off.....Def

..18........39.....North Carolina, 28-9 (#16 team, per KenPom)

SOUTH REGIONAL CHAMPION
Off.....Def

...9.........18.....Villanova, 30-7 (#9 team, per KenPom)

MIDWEST REGIONAL CHAMPION
Off.....Def

...7.........17....Kansas, 32-6 (#4 team, per KenPom)
 

HawkRugged17

HR Legend
Aug 11, 2015
24,517
29,844
113
Can someone let me know how many National Champions Kenpom has been around for? I can't find that information anywhere.....

giphy.gif
 

DodgerHawki

HR Heisman
Nov 19, 2002
9,471
11,095
113
Can someone let me know how many National Champions Kenpom has been around for? I can't find that information anywhere.....
Well played. Fran's posts can get a bit repetitive. But pretty much if you want to win a national title have to play defense. Even with a great offense, there are going to be games where the offense falls flat (see Iowa this year against Richmond).

The game against Richmond will still a lot longer than even the game against Oregon on 2021. Team this year had the roster and the bracket to get to the Sweet 16. But life doesn't work out all the time like people want it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Franisdaman

pocha444444

HR Heisman
May 16, 2007
5,520
3,279
113
IOWA (26-10) right now has the #4 offense & the #82 defense, which is simply not good enough to make a Final 4. Overall, IOWA is the #13 team, per KenPom.

KenPom has been around for 19 National Champions. Of the 19 National Champions tracked by KenPom:

* The lowest any finished in Offensive Efficiency was 39th (2014 UConn) and the lowest any finished in Defensive Efficiency was 22nd (2021 Baylor).

* 17 of the 19 national champions in the sample (89.4%) finished in the top 20 for both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency.


Expect the Villanova/Kansas winner to be your National Champion.



FINAL 4
KemPom Rankings:


WEST REGIONAL CHAMPION
Off.....Def

...1..........45....Duke, 32-6 (#8 team, per KenPom)

EAST REGIONAL CHAMPION
Off.....Def

..18........39.....North Carolina, 28-9 (#16 team, per KenPom)

SOUTH REGIONAL CHAMPION
Off.....Def

...9.........18.....Villanova, 30-7 (#9 team, per KenPom)

MIDWEST REGIONAL CHAMPION
Off.....Def

...7.........17....Kansas, 32-6 (#4 team, per KenPom)

Iowa getting a legitimate rim protector would go a long way into shoring up the defense. Hopefully they have a good shot at that Aimaq kid, his 87.5 defensive efficiency rating this past year is excellent and he appears to have good size.

The Hawks haven't had a true rim protector since the Woodbury/Olaseni days. During those years Iowa's defensive rankings per Pomeroy were:

2013 - 24th
2014 - 77th
2015 - 34th
2016 - 30th (only Woodbury this year)
 

Greenway4Prez

HR Legend
Jan 10, 2005
22,940
14,987
113
It’s too easy to point to KenPom rankings and fall into thinking that a specific recipe is going to win it. Yeah, ISU was better defensively than ISU, but ISU limits themselves with how poor they are on offense. And then Miami gets its doors blown off by 20 minutes of elite play by Kansas. Is Kansas better defensively than ISU? No, but they have a lot of guys who can put it on the floor and create.

Villanova and Houston were nearly identical metrics-wise, but they won because they took a ferocious rebounding team off the boards. That was so impressive! #115 in rebounding margin, #208 in defensive rebounding, and they negated a HUGE component to Houston’s success.

Unfortunately with Moore’s injury, it will be really tough for them to take down Kansas. Kansas has better outside shooting then did Houston, and Remy Martin picked a great time to play like an All-American caliber guard. But…Jay Wright is ridiculous, and I could easily see him taking Martin out of the game and making Agbaji/Braun beat them.

As for Duke, they’re on a quest from the Basketball Gods, and they are so talented. That is going to be an epic game.
 

Franisdaman

HR King
Nov 3, 2012
55,884
62,360
113
Heaven, Iowa
KenPom has now been around for the last 20 National Champions.

Of the 20 national champions tracked by KenPom:

(1)
The lowest any finished in Offensive Efficiency was 39th (2014 UConn) and the lowest any finished in Defensive Efficiency was 22nd (2021 Baylor).

2022 National Champion Kansas was #6 in Offensive Efficiency and #17 in Defensive Efficiency.

Runner up North Carolina was #18 in Offensive Efficiency and #35 in Defensive Efficiency.

IOWA was #4 in Offensive Efficiency and #80 in Defensive Efficiency. We have some work to do on defense in order to win a national championship,@EvilMonkeyInTheCloset !!!

(2) 18 of the 20 national champions (90%) finished in the top 20 for both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency.
 

2432Hawk

HR Legend
Gold Member
Jun 22, 2002
26,003
11,956
113
Pardeeville, WI
First of all, I agree that you need good defense. I am curious as to what you are using to determine good defense though, particularly in the Richmond game. Richmond shot 42.1% (24-57) for the game, 29.4% (5-17) from the three point line and only scored 67 points. They turned the ball over 12 times and Iowa won the rebounding battle 40-36. These defensive numbers should be good enough for Iowa and many other teams to normally win the game. The problem was that Iowa only shot 36.4% (24-66) for the game, 20.7% (6-29) from three.
And Iowa picked the worst time to lose a game when out rebounding their opponent.

Lack of strong post offensively also hurt when shots aren't falling
 

Mccusk34

Scout Team
Gold Member
Jul 25, 2019
78
122
33
I am not going to argue that Iowa is a good defensive team, though they did have games where they played better than others this year and improved over last year. My previous response was about the Richmond game in particular. While Iowa did give up some back door layups and got lost on some inbounds plays, Iowa primarily lost due to a poor offensive performance.

I agree that different things can be read into Iowa’s performance under Fran in close games. Iowa has not had a player to consistently make the late shots to win games under Fran, outside of Jordan over the last few years. On the flip side, Iowa has not had the defense to keep the other team from making shots late in those close games as well.

Fran tried to go with the hot hand and even rotate offense for defense late in games this year. Unfortunately, Iowa did not do well on either end of the floor late in the game against Richmond. Some of this may have been due to Keegan’s injured ankle, but someone else needed to step up and make a play on either end of the floor.
The Richmond game is a recurring theme under Fran. It APPEARS that the players don't "double down" on their defensive effort when the shots aren't falling, they're focus APPEARS to stay the same on defensive hoping that they will shoot their way back into the game. MY OPINION, it's a poor strategy for 3 star athletes to think they don't have to go extra on D when the offense is in a funk. Instead they hope to get lucky by over playing passing lanes to get steals. The extra effort should be staying in front of your man and then boxing your man out from getting a rebound. Richmond had a quick pt guard who controlled the pace of the game. Iowa did not stop/control him.
 

TampaHawkfan

HR MVP
Jan 8, 2005
2,278
1,229
113
KenPom has now been around for the last 20 National Champions.

Of the 20 national champions tracked by KenPom:

(1)
The lowest any finished in Offensive Efficiency was 39th (2014 UConn) and the lowest any finished in Defensive Efficiency was 22nd (2021 Baylor).

2022 National Champion Kansas was #6 in Offensive Efficiency and #17 in Defensive Efficiency.

Runner up North Carolina was #18 in Offensive Efficiency and #35 in Defensive Efficiency.

IOWA was #4 in Offensive Efficiency and #80 in Defensive Efficiency. We have some work to do on defense in order to win a national championship,@EvilMonkeyInTheCloset !!!

(2) 18 of the 20 national champions (90%) finished in the top 20 for both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency.

So you need to be a complete team (both offense and defense) to win a title. Who knew. :)

Yeah, Iowa needs to make defense a priority. It's definitely the elephant in the room that hasn't been addressed.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Franisdaman

mrcyfan

HR All-American
Aug 31, 2001
2,549
269
83
If Iowa and Iowa State could combine their best attributes, the resulting team would be Final 4 material. On the flip side, a team combining Iowa’s defense and Iowa State’s offense would truly suck.

Many here have stated the dire need for a rim protector, the missing piece of a faulty defense. I beg to differ. If you watched the title game or any matchup after the Sweet 16, you saw tremendous pressure on the ball as well as defensive rotations that always covered the backside. Help defense with no easy baskets.

These top teams stick to you like glue and make offense a real chore.
 
Sep 8, 2018
7,541
13,052
113
The Richmond game is a recurring theme under Fran. It APPEARS that the players don't "double down" on their defensive effort when the shots aren't falling, they're focus APPEARS to stay the same on defensive hoping that they will shoot their way back into the game. MY OPINION, it's a poor strategy for 3 star athletes to think they don't have to go extra on D when the offense is in a funk. Instead they hope to get lucky by over playing passing lanes to get steals. The extra effort should be staying in front of your man and then boxing your man out from getting a rebound. Richmond had a quick pt guard who controlled the pace of the game. Iowa did not stop/control him.
If I didn’t actually watch the game and read this it would have APPEARED that Iowa gave up 90 points instead of 67 or .97/possession. In MY OPINION Iowa had a really shitty shooting night. In MY OPINION Iowa wins comfortably with the same defensive effort coupled with an average shooting night. It APPEARS that we disagree but that’s ok since these are all OPINIONS.
 

MonmouthHawk

Rookie
Aug 29, 2002
54
73
18
The reality is these numbers have been in Frans face for years and I would argue that it took until this year to really focus on it. Even with that he put jbo at the point to better space the floor and get jbo good looks. The offense he coaches is top notch in style and effectiveness, the D not so much. I can handle Iowa losing but it sure hurts more when they concede the corner 3 from a "junk" zone. UNC was really not a great team on D, except they were world class re bounders that covered for their short comings on D. I think Iowa could better utilize the numbers and trade some O to get better D.
 

Franisdaman

HR King
Nov 3, 2012
55,884
62,360
113
Heaven, Iowa
If Iowa and Iowa State could combine their best attributes, the resulting team would be Final 4 material. On the flip side, a team combining Iowa’s defense and Iowa State’s offense would truly suck.

Many here have stated the dire need for a rim protector, the missing piece of a faulty defense. I beg to differ. If you watched the title game or any matchup after the Sweet 16, you saw tremendous pressure on the ball as well as defensive rotations that always covered the backside. Help defense with no easy baskets.

These top teams stick to you like glue and make offense a real chore.

I think Iowa would lose by 10 or 11 to KU. The talent disparity is too great, imo.

Also, all of KU's starters were either in their 3rd or 4th years; their experience paid off, especially when down by 15 at half time.


Compare both team's starting 5's:


Kansas (4 FOUR Stars, 1 THREE Star)








IOWA (1 FOUR Star, 3 THREE Stars, 1 TWO Star)





 

Latest posts