US to Announce Planning Joint Coast Guard Patrols in S. China Sea

[West Dundee Hawkeye]

The United States, Australia, India and Japan are planning joint coast guard and maritime police patrols amid growing Chinese activity in the region, according to unnamed diplomatic sources cited Monday by Japan’s Kyodo News.The plan aims to stem illegal fishing and may be included in a joint statement issued at a summit of the four nations, known as the Quad, for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, on Saturday in Delaware, the agency reported.It comes as clashes grow in number between Manila and Beijing over territorial claims in the South China Sea.

Coast Guard Escorting

 

[binsfeldcyhawk2]

Most projections I've seen have China moving on Taiwan somewhere between 2024-28. After that China's looming issues (aging population) start making it less likely.

Yet another possible issue the next Presidident might have to deal with.

Interesting article on the subject...

• Taiwanese presidential elections in January 2024 that could bring another anti-China leader to power: The outcome of the Taiwanese presidential elections has long been considered perhaps the most significant trigger point for a conflict in 2024. With William Lai securing an election victory, the 20 May inauguration will introduce a new more dangerous cross-strait dynamic, further cementing China’s position that it needs to take even more aggressive action to repatriate Taiwan.
• U.S. presidential elections in November 2024 that could distract the U.S. and perhaps even cause chaos if there is a transition of administrations: The U.S. presidential elections in November 2024 represents a pivotal moment as well. Though the U.S. officially supports the “One China” policy, the rigors of the election for the current administration, and/or the transition of administrations, can introduce uncertainties and potential distractions. A change in leadership or policy direction may impact the U.S.'s ability to respond effectively to geopolitical events, potentially creating a window of opportunity or vulnerability.
• In 2025, when Taiwan’s military predicts China will be ready to invade: The year 2025 is marked by strategic significance, as Taiwan's military predicts that China could be prepared to execute an invasion by then. This projection underscores the importance of assessing the geopolitical landscape during this period, as the perceived readiness of China could influence regional dynamics and prompt preemptive measures from Taiwan and its allies.
• When China’s People’s Liberation Army marks its centennial in 2027: The centennial of China's People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in 2027 is a symbolic milestone. The PLA's commemoration of a hundred years could potentially coincide with strategic moves or displays of military strength, shaping perceptions both domestically and internationally and influencing China's approach to regional affairs.
• When the U.S. likely nears semiconductor sovereignty, likely around 2030 — reducing its dependence on Taiwan: Anticipating the year 2030 is crucial, particularly concerning semiconductor production. As the U.S. progresses toward semiconductor sovereignty, reducing reliance on Taiwan for critical technology components, the dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region may shift. This shift could impact the strategic importance of Taiwan in the eyes of both the U.S. and China.

Of course, it's important to acknowledge the inherent uncertainty here. An invasion, if one is to happen, remains a looming question mark. The element of surprise would likely be in China’s best interest if they do move forward with invading Taiwan.

Will China Invade Taiwan? A Potential Timeline for Conflict

Global Guardian discusses the probability and likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, including a timeline and potential impacts of the conflict.

www.globalguardian.com

On a related note. The Ukraine war has shown how drones are changing warfare. Autonomous drones are where the future lies...

From the sky to the sea: how China and US are racing to win the game of drones

Drawing on Gaza and Ukraine lessons, both sides are racing to incorporate AI in faster, smarter strategies for future conflicts.

www.scmp.com

 

[SA_Hawk]

https://seapowermagazine.org/navy-plans-to-retire-48-ships-during-2022-2026/?print=print

On the flip side the U.S. Navy is decommissioning 48 ships in the next two years. 16 of those due to lack of sailors.