Russian President Vladimir Putin will formally move Friday to seize four Ukrainian regions by signing documents that the Kremlin is calling “accession treaties.”
The signing ceremony, to take place in the Grand Kremlin Palace, marks Putin’s attempt to annex the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, even though Russia does not fully control them militarily or politically.
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Voronezh
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Four regions
where staged
referendums
on joining Russia
were held
Chernihiv
Belgorod
Sumy
Valuyki
Kyiv
Kharkiv
LUHANSK
Cherkasy
Slovyansk
Luhansk
Dnipro
Donetsk
Kirovohrad
DONETSK
Zaporizhzhia
ZAPORIZHZHIA
Area held
by Russia-
backed
separatists
since 2014
Mariupol
Mykolaiv
Melitopol
KHERSON
MOL.
Kherson
Odessa
RUSSIA
Kerch
CRIMEA
Krasnodar
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
100 MILES
ROM.
Novorossiysk
Sevastopol
Black Sea
Control areas as of Sept. 28
Sources: Institute for the Study of War, AEI’s Critical Threats Project
The move, in defiance of stern international warnings including from President Biden, potentially slams the door on diplomacy for years to come and almost certainly assures further escalation of the war in Ukraine. Kyiv insists it will fight to reclaim all of its lands, and Western allies are promising to send more weapons and economic assistance.
Putin’s recent declaration of a partial military mobilization, intended to activate hundreds of thousands of reinforcements for deployment to Ukraine, and the sabotage this week of two Nord Stream natural gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea have raised fears that the Russian leader is preparing for a long hybrid conflict with NATO.
Russia has also warned that it could use a nuclear weapon to defend the Ukrainian regions once they are absorbed into Russia, on grounds that it would view an attack on its forces there as an attack on Russian territory. Similarly, Putin could use such attacks to declare martial law, putting Russia’s economy and society fully on a war footing.
Ukrainians flee before expected Russian annexation
3:01
Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to sign a treaty annexing four areas of Ukraine on Sept. 30 after staged referendums criticized by the West. (Video: Reuters)
Putin’s land grab, which is a blatant violation of international law, will further isolate Russia, triggering new Western sanctions. But Putin nonetheless appears to hope that a long, brutal war will eventually fray Western support for Ukraine and curtail military and economic aid that is providing a lifeline to Kyiv.
The Russian men fleeing mobilization, and leaving everything behind
One of the few viable diplomatic channels remaining is between Russia and Turkey, but even Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who helped broker a recent prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine, has voiced disapproval of Putin’s recent steps.
After Russia orchestrated the referendums with implausible results claiming overwhelming support for annexation, Erdogan said the voting brought “troubles,” and he lamented that the conflict had not been resolved through diplomacy.
Erdogan was due to speak to Putin late Thursday, likely too late to persuade him to change course if that were ever possible. “These kinds of ventures strain the efforts for diplomacy and lead to the deepening of instability,” Erdogan said, referring to the staged referendums and the military mobilization.
Russia’s proxy leaders from the partially occupied regions traveled to Moscow on Wednesday ahead of the signing of the so-called accession treaties.
And in a sign of the hoopla in Moscow, the state-controlled Rossiya 24 news channel started broadcasting a countdown clock, showing the hours and minutes until Putin’s scheduled announcement at 3 p.m. local time (10 a.m. Eastern). Russia’s rubber-stamp parliament, meeting Monday and Tuesday, is certain to approve the treaties and then adopt amendments to the constitution to formalize the annexation, in a process mirroring that of Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Adding a dash of patriotic theater to Friday’s proceedings, the Kremlin announced that a gala concert would be held in Red Square on Friday after the signing of the treaties.
The concert mimics a similar event in 2014 when Putin appeared onstage after Russia had seized Ukraine’s Crimea region. It was part of an effort to whip up public euphoria over reclaiming the peninsula, which a majority of Russians viewed as historically belonging to them.
The annexation of Crimea, a popular Russian holiday destination, propelled Putin’s approval rating to a record high 89 percent in 2015. But public sentiment is unlikely to be as strong for the takeover of the four new regions.
Multiple Russian setbacks in the war have exposed the poor shape of Russia’s military and left Putin more vulnerable than at any time in office. He has been criticized from the right by pro-war hawks furious over the military missteps as well as the bungled mobilization, and from the left by opponents of the war.
The signing ceremony, to take place in the Grand Kremlin Palace, marks Putin’s attempt to annex the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, even though Russia does not fully control them militarily or politically.
Are you on Telegram? Subscribe to our channel for the latest updates on Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Voronezh
BELARUS
RUSSIA
Four regions
where staged
referendums
on joining Russia
were held
Chernihiv
Belgorod
Sumy
Valuyki
Kyiv
Kharkiv
LUHANSK
Cherkasy
Slovyansk
Luhansk
Dnipro
Donetsk
Kirovohrad
DONETSK
Zaporizhzhia
ZAPORIZHZHIA
Area held
by Russia-
backed
separatists
since 2014
Mariupol
Mykolaiv
Melitopol
KHERSON
MOL.
Kherson
Odessa
RUSSIA
Kerch
CRIMEA
Krasnodar
Annexed by Russia
in 2014
100 MILES
ROM.
Novorossiysk
Sevastopol
Black Sea
Control areas as of Sept. 28
Sources: Institute for the Study of War, AEI’s Critical Threats Project
The move, in defiance of stern international warnings including from President Biden, potentially slams the door on diplomacy for years to come and almost certainly assures further escalation of the war in Ukraine. Kyiv insists it will fight to reclaim all of its lands, and Western allies are promising to send more weapons and economic assistance.
Putin’s recent declaration of a partial military mobilization, intended to activate hundreds of thousands of reinforcements for deployment to Ukraine, and the sabotage this week of two Nord Stream natural gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea have raised fears that the Russian leader is preparing for a long hybrid conflict with NATO.
Russia has also warned that it could use a nuclear weapon to defend the Ukrainian regions once they are absorbed into Russia, on grounds that it would view an attack on its forces there as an attack on Russian territory. Similarly, Putin could use such attacks to declare martial law, putting Russia’s economy and society fully on a war footing.
Ukrainians flee before expected Russian annexation
3:01
Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to sign a treaty annexing four areas of Ukraine on Sept. 30 after staged referendums criticized by the West. (Video: Reuters)
Putin’s land grab, which is a blatant violation of international law, will further isolate Russia, triggering new Western sanctions. But Putin nonetheless appears to hope that a long, brutal war will eventually fray Western support for Ukraine and curtail military and economic aid that is providing a lifeline to Kyiv.
The Russian men fleeing mobilization, and leaving everything behind
One of the few viable diplomatic channels remaining is between Russia and Turkey, but even Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who helped broker a recent prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine, has voiced disapproval of Putin’s recent steps.
After Russia orchestrated the referendums with implausible results claiming overwhelming support for annexation, Erdogan said the voting brought “troubles,” and he lamented that the conflict had not been resolved through diplomacy.
Erdogan was due to speak to Putin late Thursday, likely too late to persuade him to change course if that were ever possible. “These kinds of ventures strain the efforts for diplomacy and lead to the deepening of instability,” Erdogan said, referring to the staged referendums and the military mobilization.
Russia’s proxy leaders from the partially occupied regions traveled to Moscow on Wednesday ahead of the signing of the so-called accession treaties.
And in a sign of the hoopla in Moscow, the state-controlled Rossiya 24 news channel started broadcasting a countdown clock, showing the hours and minutes until Putin’s scheduled announcement at 3 p.m. local time (10 a.m. Eastern). Russia’s rubber-stamp parliament, meeting Monday and Tuesday, is certain to approve the treaties and then adopt amendments to the constitution to formalize the annexation, in a process mirroring that of Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Adding a dash of patriotic theater to Friday’s proceedings, the Kremlin announced that a gala concert would be held in Red Square on Friday after the signing of the treaties.
The concert mimics a similar event in 2014 when Putin appeared onstage after Russia had seized Ukraine’s Crimea region. It was part of an effort to whip up public euphoria over reclaiming the peninsula, which a majority of Russians viewed as historically belonging to them.
The annexation of Crimea, a popular Russian holiday destination, propelled Putin’s approval rating to a record high 89 percent in 2015. But public sentiment is unlikely to be as strong for the takeover of the four new regions.
Multiple Russian setbacks in the war have exposed the poor shape of Russia’s military and left Putin more vulnerable than at any time in office. He has been criticized from the right by pro-war hawks furious over the military missteps as well as the bungled mobilization, and from the left by opponents of the war.
