Virtually ZERO chance at the 4 seed and Double Bye in BTT

[Franisdaman]

Even if Iowa wins at Michigan, I think

IU wins at home vs MD
MD will beat ILL today
MSU will beat OSU
Wisc should lose at Purdue

Iowa ties for third but since they lost to Wisc (this loss is looking worse and worse by the day) and MD (and swept Purdue), they would be the 5 seed in the BTT.

If Iowa wins their game on Thur, they would play MD on Friday.

Projected Top 8 seeds for the BTT:

15-3 Indiana.................1 seed
13-5 Mich State............2 seed
12-6 Wisconsin............3 seed
12-6 Maryland..............4 seed
12-6 Iowa.....................5 seed
12-6 Purdue.................6 seed
11-7 Ohio State............7 seed
10-8 Michigan..............8 seed

Current B1G standings:

TEAM CONF OVERALL
Indiana 14-3 24-6
Michigan State 12-5 25-5
Wisconsin 12-5 20-10
Maryland 11-5 23-6
Purdue 11-6 23-7
Iowa 11-6 20-9
Ohio State 11-6 19-11
Michigan 10-7 20-10
Northwestern 6-10 18-11
Penn State 6-10 15-14
Nebraska 6-11 14-16
Illinois 5-11 13-16
Minnesota 2-15 8-21
Rutgers 0-17 6-24

 

[QChawks]

 

[El Simbolo]

We need PU and Maryland to win Sunday to be #4. We need Wisconsin to win Sunday to avoid 7-seed. At least we'll know our outcome before deciding who to cheer for Sun night. Go Terps!

 

[SJeagleEye]

At this point, I will just root for avoiding Michigan State as late as possible.

That being said, count on MSU being our first opponent.

My prediction? Pain. For Iowa.

 

[Franisdaman]

At this point, I will just root for avoiding Michigan State as late as possible.

That being said, count on MSU being our first opponent.

My prediction? Pain. For Iowa.

chances are we get a rematch with MD on friday with the winner playing IU on Saturday

 

[DavenportHawk8]

The only teams I would WANT to face is Rutgers right now.

Everyone else scares me and I think we could lose to any of them right now. Confidence has to come back otherwise this will be a long 2 weeks.

 

[0418hawkguy1001]

I would rather be the 5 seed and go through MD and IU to get to the finals than be the 6 seed. I would want to avoid Purdue and MSU as much as possible, as I personally think MSU is the favorite to win the national championship. Give me the 5 seed.

 

[El Simbolo]

You would think either Rutgers or a depleted Minnesota team would be pushovers, but…you know us

That said, should be quite the matchup between Rutgers and Minnesota this weekend

 

[EpenesaEpenesa]

I would rather be the 5 seed and go through MD and IU to get to the finals than be the 6 seed. I would want to avoid Purdue and MSU as much as possible, as I personally think MSU is the favorite to win the national championship. Give me the 5 seed.

At this point, Id almost rather be the 6 so it would give me more time to drive to Indy Thursday

 

[NI hawk]

chances are we get a rematch with MD on friday with the winner playing IU on Saturday

That's what I am hoping for.

 

[CaliHawkFan]

Give us Maryland, its where the wheels started to fall off the shiny wagon that was so lubed up and in-sync that we all thought Iowa was going to the Final Four.

Maybe we can recapture some of our early season magic. Bring on the Terps. Would also love another chance at Indiana.

I do NOT want to play Sparty... they will beat us by 30 as if we were in East Lansing.

 

[mtdew_fever]

Here is a seeding predictor that you can run with editing the different scenarios for the last Big 10 games.

http://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb

Getting the 4 seed in the Big 10 tourney is still possible in a few scenarios. A lot of things can happen, but I'd say it's not likely.

 

[josestude]

Franisdaman How do you figure we would be a 5 seed - have you taken a look at the tie breaking procedures on the Big Ten Tournament web site - I think we would be 4 seed according to those tie breaking rules http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/102615aad.html

 

[josestude]

Franisdaman How do you figure we would be a 5 seed - have you taken a look at the tie breaking procedures on the Big Ten Tournament web site - I think we would be 4 seed according to those tie breaking rules http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/102615aad.html

Among the 4 tied teams - Maryland would be 3-2, Wisc 2-2, Purdue 3-3, and Iowa 2-2 ... so Maryland gets 3 seed then you drop to the three ties teams - Iowa 2-1, Wisc 1-2, Purdue 2-2 ..

 

[josestude]

.... and if Maryland beats Indiana which I think is highly likely - they are tied w/ Mich State and pickup either 2 or 3 seed which leaves Wisc, Iowa, and Purdue tied for 4th seed of which Iowa wins tie breaker ...

 

[StormHawk42]

Our most likely path to the 4 is Maryland, Purdue, and Iowa winning. Possible, although I kinda doubt Maryland beats IU on Yogi's senior day. just have Iowa win and get something going. Everything else is out of our hands.

 

[Ihawkhoops]

I am more interested in how the team responds come the NCAA tourney. All of our armchair coach opinions aside, let's see the team step up and win two games. To me, that is the height of my expectations as an Iowa fan...every few years, win two games in the tournament. II know, bad fan, way too many expectations, I want Fran fired, all the players suck, etc. Just win two games or at least win one game and keep the second close....that is all I ask every couple years. See, I have lowered my expectations in the 1 minute it has taken me to write this. The 'true' fans should be happy with this lowering of the bar.

 

[OC_Hawk]

I don't think I'd say 0% chance.

4-seed scenarios:

3-seed scenarios:

More than 1/3rd of possible outcomes result in an Iowa double bye. They aren't great odds, and do rely on some longshots.

 

[El Simbolo]

Just bizarre to me that we could tie PU in a multi team tie, the first tiebreakers could settle the other teams leaving only us and PU, and then we would lose the tiebreaker to them because they beat OSU or something like that (rather than reverting to head-to-head once it's down to just the two of us still tied)

 

[El Simbolo]

Apply rpiforecast odds for each game to that spreadsheet and it will more accurately show the likelihood of each seed. I might do that after tonight, once there are only 128 possible outcomes, instead of 512. Though I don't know if the outcomes of some of the games (NU-PSU, Minny-Rut, Illini-PSU, UNL-NU) could actually have a bearing on our seeding. Surely, the tiebreakers can never dig down as far as "record vs NU, PSU, UNL, or Illini?

 

[Douglas C. Neidermeyer]

What does IU gain by playing their starters for most of the game vs. MD? Sure, recognize the seniors, but this game won't hurt them if they rely on benchwarmers for a significant portion.

 

[sober_teacher]

What does IU gain by playing their starters for most of the game vs. MD? Sure, recognize the seniors, but this game won't hurt them if they rely on benchwarmers for a significant portion.

I would bet Indiana still has a lot of room to move up in NCAA seeding by continuing to win.

 

[cruhawk]

What a sad commentary & situation, hoping Iowa can avoid two teams that they swept--all games by double digits--just a few weeks ago.

 

[El Simbolo]

OC, Thx for spreadsheet. Looks like the 3-seed is officially out

 

[OC_Hawk]

OC, Thx for spreadsheet. Looks like the 3-seed is officially out

That is it. The remaining 4-seed scenarios

 

[icantfindausernamethatisntused]

I don't give a damn what seed we get. Our success is not dependent on our seed. Our success is dependent on the way we play. We've seen this year that if we play our A game, we can beat anyone in the country. We've also seen that when we do not play well, we can lose to virtually anyone.

If we play well in the Big 10 tournament, we will be fine regardless of our seed. If we continue to play poorly, we will have an early exit, regardless of our seed.

 

[Psyclone]

That is it. The remaining 4-seed scenarios

If Iowa wins, it looks like a 4 seed is a reasonable possibility. Looking at the most likely scenarios: MN/RU, IL/PSU and NE/NW are don't cares; MSU over OSU on MSU's senior day; PU over WI on PU's senior day; MD over IU but it must take place on IU's senior day.

 

[jasonrann]

Just get at least one win in the tourney, I don't care what seed we are.

 

[OC_Hawk]

If Iowa wins, it looks like a 4 seed is a reasonable possibility. Looking at the most likely scenarios: MN/RU, IL/PSU and NE/NW are don't cares; MSU over OSU on MSU's senior day; PU over WI on PU's senior day; MD over IU but it must take place on IU's senior day.

An MSU win more than any other outcome (except for Iowa/Michigan) really has dramatic say in what happens to Iowa. It almost assuredly sends them to 5th or worse.

 

[carrier9]

An MSU win more than any other outcome (except for Iowa/Michigan) really has dramatic say in what happens to Iowa. It almost assuredly sends them to 5th or worse.

Wonder what would happen to the seeding if Ohio State upset Sparty somehow on Saturday?

Seems like that would have a profound affect on a few teams seeding.

 

[Impossible Is Nothing]

I think the multiple team tiebreaker is being misinterpreted, especially regarding the scenario of a four-way tie for third place among Maryland, Iowa, Purdue, and Wisconsin (all at 12-6). See my other post on this here: Saturday is a big one!

The text of the tiebreaker reads:
----------
"B. Multiple team tie:

1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular-season.

a. When comparing records against the tied teams, the team with the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0).

b. After the top team among the tied teams is determined, the second team is ranked by its record among the original tied teams, not the head-to-head record vs. the remaining team(s).

2. If the remaining teams are still tied, then each tied team's record shall be compared to the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage"
----------
It's the second criterion (bold and italics) that I think is being misunderstood. In the scenario described above, Maryland would be the #3 seed based on its 3-2 record against the tied teams, Iowa and Purdue would both be .500 (2-2 and 3-3 respectively), and Wisconsin would be 2-3. Applying the tiebreaker, Maryland would be the #3 seed and Wisconsin would be the #6 seed (per provision 1-b). The question becomes how to break the tie between Iowa and Purdue. Many people on this thread have applied the second criterion above and given the #4 seed to Purdue based either on its record vs. Ohio State (1-0 vs. Iowa's 0-1) or vs. Maryland (Purdue 1-1 vs. Iowa's 0-1). I don't think this is a correct application of the tiebreaker.

By definition, the above criteria apply to multiple team ties. Iowa and Purdue is a two-team tie, and thus would be broken using head-to-head.
Rejoinder: some might argue that 1-b above rules out this interpretation, but I don't think that it does. What 1-b is essentially saying is that all tied teams must be ranked and seeded based on their collective head-to-head records (which is why, in this scenario, Wisconsin would be the #6 seed). Iowa and Purdue are still tied, but it is no longer a multiple team tie, it is a two-team tie, and should therefore utilize the two-team tiebreaker (the first criterion of which is head-to-head, which would give Iowa the advantage). If, for instance, Iowa, Purdue and Wisconsin were still tied, then the second criterion of the multiple team tiebreaker would apply.

 

[StormHawk42]

Wonder what would happen to the seeding if Ohio State upset Sparty somehow on Saturday?

Seems like that would have a profound affect on a few teams seeding.

We would be the 4 if we beat Michigan.

 

[OC_Hawk]

I think the multiple team tiebreaker is being misinterpreted, especially regarding the scenario of a four-way tie for third place among Maryland, Iowa, Purdue, and Wisconsin (all at 12-6). See my other post on this here: Saturday is a big one!

The text of the tiebreaker reads:
----------
"B. Multiple team tie:

1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular-season.

a. When comparing records against the tied teams, the team with the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0).

b. After the top team among the tied teams is determined, the second team is ranked by its record among the original tied teams, not the head-to-head record vs. the remaining team(s).

2. If the remaining teams are still tied, then each tied team's record shall be compared to the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage"
----------
It's the second criterion (bold and italics) that I think is being misunderstood. In the scenario described above, Maryland would be the #3 seed based on its 3-2 record against the tied teams, Iowa and Purdue would both be .500 (2-2 and 3-3 respectively), and Wisconsin would be 2-3. Applying the tiebreaker, Maryland would be the #3 seed and Wisconsin would be the #6 seed (per provision 1-b). The question becomes how to break the tie between Iowa and Purdue. Many people on this thread have applied the second criterion above and given the #4 seed to Purdue based either on its record vs. Ohio State (1-0 vs. Iowa's 0-1) or vs. Maryland (Purdue 1-1 vs. Iowa's 0-1). I don't think this is a correct application of the tiebreaker.

By definition, the above criteria apply to multiple team ties. Iowa and Purdue is a two-team tie, and thus would be broken using head-to-head.
Rejoinder: some might argue that 1-b above rules out this interpretation, but I don't think that it does. What 1-b is essentially saying is that all tied teams must be ranked and seeded based on their collective head-to-head records (which is why, in this scenario, Wisconsin would be the #6 seed). Iowa and Purdue are still tied, but it is no longer a multiple team tie, it is a two-team tie, and should therefore utilize the two-team tiebreaker (the first criterion of which is head-to-head, which would give Iowa the advantage). If, for instance, Iowa, Purdue and Wisconsin were still tied, then the second criterion of the multiple team tiebreaker would apply.

I do think you are right that the picture I posted above is wrong for that case of a three way tie for third...which kind of brings into question where else I was inaccurate in putting that stupid thing together!

I'm not sure how to interpret your interpretation...but I don't see a listing of what the actual tiebreaker is so I'm going to say you're wrong about your interpretation

In the case you present where MD, WI, PU, and IA are all 12-6 and tied for third, you're right in that Maryland & Wisconsin's places are decided.

Maryland was 3-2 (.600) against WI, PU, IA
Purdue was 3-3 (.500) against MD, WI, IA
Iowa was 2-2 (.500) against MD, WI, PU
Wisconsin was 2-3 (.400) against MD, PU, IA

To break Purdue / Iowa tie, you start going down the list:
1. Indiana: Purdue 0-1, Iowa 0-2 = PUSH
2. Michigan State: Purdue 0-1, Iowa 2-0 = Iowa

 

[Impossible Is Nothing]

I'm not sure how to interpret your interpretation...but I don't see a listing of what the actual tiebreaker is so I'm going to say you're wrong about your interpretation

In the case you present where MD, WI, PU, and IA are all 12-6 and tied for third, you're right in that Maryland & Wisconsin's places are decided.

Maryland was 3-2 (.600) against WI, PU, IA
Purdue was 3-3 (.500) against MD, WI, IA
Iowa was 2-2 (.500) against MD, WI, PU
Wisconsin was 2-3 (.400) against MD, PU, IA

To break Purdue / Iowa tie, you start going down the list:
1. Indiana: Purdue 0-1, Iowa 0-2 = PUSH
2. Michigan State: Purdue 0-1, Iowa 2-0 = Iowa

I guess we can agree that the tiebreaker rules as written (found here: http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/102615aad.html) are open to interpretation. My basic point is that it makes more intuitive sense to, in this scenario, break a tie between two teams using the prescribed two-team tiebreaker rather than continue to apply the multiple-team tiebreaker (i.e., going down the list and comparing records).

Also, Purdue beat Michigan State.

 

[OC_Hawk]

I guess we can agree that the tiebreaker rules as written (found here: http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/102615aad.html) are open to interpretation. My basic point is that it makes more intuitive sense to, in this scenario, break a tie between two teams using the prescribed two-team tiebreaker rather than continue to apply the multiple-team tiebreaker (i.e., going down the list and comparing records).

It is more intuitive but I'm certain they do not use a head-to-head of a subset of teams

Also, Purdue beat Michigan State.

You're totally right. I need to stop talking for a little while.

 

[MepoDawg#]

Here's the scenarios based on Hawk Central's article.

Iowa gets No. 4 seed: This would mean a double bye — not playing until Friday — and the best-case scenario, obviously, for the Hawkeyes. Of course Iowa needs to win Saturday, coupled with two outcomes: Maryland (24-6, 12-5) handing outright conference champ Indiana (24-6, 14-3) its first home loss of the year Sunday afternoon; and host Purdue (23-7, 11-6) beating Wisconsin (20-10, 12-5) on Sunday night. If those three things happen, Purdue would likely be Iowa’s 1:30 p.m. Friday opponent as the No. 5 seed.

Iowa gets No. 5 seed: If either Purdue or Maryland loses Sunday, this is where Iowa lands with a win at Michigan (20-10, 10-7). That would mean a 1:30 p.m. Thursday game, likely against the Minnesota-Illinois winner, with either Purdue or Maryland waiting as the No. 4 seed on Friday.

Iowa gets No. 6 seed: This happens with an Iowa loss coupled with a Wisconsin win at Purdue. The sixth seed would likely play the Nebraska-Rutgers winner at roughly 8 p.m. Thursday, with the Badgers waiting as the No. 3 seed.

Iowa gets No. 7 seed: An Iowa loss and Purdue home win would drop the Hawkeyes below Ohio State based on tiebreakers. This would create a third matchup with Penn State at 5:30 p.m. Thursday, with No. 2 seed Michigan State waiting on Friday. The Spartans, who were swept by Iowa early in the conference season, are the team to avoid as they're playing as well as any team in America.

 

[Franisdaman]

Among the 4 tied teams - Maryland would be 3-2, Wisc 2-2, Purdue 3-3, and Iowa 2-2 ... so Maryland gets 3 seed then you drop to the three ties teams - Iowa 2-1, Wisc 1-2, Purdue 2-2 ..

the unbalanced schedule really sucks;

.... and if Maryland beats Indiana which I think is highly likely - they are tied w/ Mich State and pickup either 2 or 3 seed which leaves Wisc, Iowa, and Purdue tied for 4th seed of which Iowa wins tie breaker ...

man, i hope you are right; i dont want to play on Thursday; but we gotta beat Michigan first, which who knows if that will happen

 

[Franisdaman]

Here's the scenarios based on Hawk Central's article.

Iowa gets No. 4 seed: This would mean a double bye — not playing until Friday — and the best-case scenario, obviously, for the Hawkeyes. Of course Iowa needs to win Saturday, coupled with two outcomes: Maryland (24-6, 12-5) handing outright conference champ Indiana (24-6, 14-3) its first home loss of the year Sunday afternoon; and host Purdue (23-7, 11-6) beating Wisconsin (20-10, 12-5) on Sunday night. If those three things happen, Purdue would likely be Iowa’s 1:30 p.m. Friday opponent as the No. 5 seed.

Iowa gets No. 5 seed: If either Purdue or Maryland loses Sunday, this is where Iowa lands with a win at Michigan (20-10, 10-7). That would mean a 1:30 p.m. Thursday game, likely against the Minnesota-Illinois winner, with either Purdue or Maryland waiting as the No. 4 seed on Friday.

Iowa gets No. 6 seed: This happens with an Iowa loss coupled with a Wisconsin win at Purdue. The sixth seed would likely play the Nebraska-Rutgers winner at roughly 8 p.m. Thursday, with the Badgers waiting as the No. 3 seed.

Iowa gets No. 7 seed: An Iowa loss and Purdue home win would drop the Hawkeyes below Ohio State based on tiebreakers. This would create a third matchup with Penn State at 5:30 p.m. Thursday, with No. 2 seed Michigan State waiting on Friday. The Spartans, who were swept by Iowa early in the conference season, are the team to avoid as they're playing as well as any team in America.

thank you for this!!

we need to root for MD and Purdue!

 

[OC_Hawk]

Iowa gets No. 5 seed: If either Purdue or Maryland loses Sunday, this is where Iowa lands with a win at Michigan (20-10, 10-7). That would mean a 1:30 p.m. Thursday game, likely against the Minnesota-Illinois winner, with either Purdue or Maryland waiting as the No. 4 seed on Friday.

That's just not true. If Maryland loses and Purdue wins (assuming MSU wins as stated in the Hawk Central article), the records of Maryland, Wisconsin, Purdue, and Iowa are all an identical 12-6. As broken down elsewhere, the tie-breaker for those four teams ranks them Maryland, Iowa, Purdue, Wisconsin.

If Maryland wins and Purdue wins, Maryland jumps up to a tie for second, leaving Iowa (2-1), Purdue (2-2), and Wisconsin (1-2) tied for 4th at 12-6. In either case, Iowa take the 4-seed.

Other parts of that article are also inaccurate. While an Iowa loss and a Purdue win does indeed drop Iowa to the 7-seed, to say it sets up a third match-up with Penn State which could be true, but maybe not. Penn State is in a Battle Royale with Northwestern, Nebraska, and Illinois for the 9, 10, 11, and 12 seeds. The IL/PSU and NE/NW games will determine the 10-seed with Nebraska appearing there half the time and NW & PSU 25% each.

 

[DarkThunder#61]

Just bizarre to me that we could tie PU in a multi team tie, the first tiebreakers could settle the other teams leaving only us and PU, and then we would lose the tiebreaker to them because they beat OSU or something like that (rather than reverting to head-to-head once it's down to just the two of us still tied)

Yeah that is kinda f***ing stupid but it is the Big Ten.