VOTE: NCAA Tournament for Iowa (9-6, 0-2 B1G)? Predict their Final Regular Season Record

[Franisdaman]

15 games down in the regular season, 16 to go. It's time for a re-set.

Iowa sits at 9-6 overall and 0-2 in the B1G.

There are a lot of average teams in the B1G. Full disclosure: At the start of the preseason I thought Iowa would go 14-4 in the B1G based on 4 returning starters and the 2 incoming impressive freshmen. I might have been a little bit off.

So, based on what you have seen of Iowa and the other B1G teams, predict Iowa's final regular season record and whether that will be enough go get into the NCAA Tournament.


Iowa's 2017-2018 Schedule:

Current Record: 9-6 Overall, 0-2 B1G

Road games and Neutral Site games are in RED.


The 2 Exhibition & 13 Non-Conference Games:

Date / Opponent / Site / CENTRAL Time Tip Off / TV or Streaming Platform

W--Fri., Oct. 27 William Jewell College (Exh.) IOWA CITY 7 p.m. BTN Plus
W--Thurs., Nov. 2 Belmont Abbey College (Exh.) IOWA CITY 7 p.m. BTN Plus
________________________________________________________

W, 95-62--Fri., Nov. 10 Chicago State IOWA CITY 8 p.m. BTN Plus
W, 92-58--Sun., Nov. 12 Alabama State IOWA CITY 3 p.m. BTN Plus
W, 85-74--Thurs., Nov. 16 Grambling State IOWA CITY 7 p.m. BTN Plus
L, 80-71--Mon., Nov. 20 vs. Louisiana, Cayman Islands, Noon, CollegeSportsLive.com
L, 80-72-- Tues., Nov. 21 vs. South Dakota State Cayman Islands Noon CollegeSportsLive.com
W, 95-85--Wed., Nov. 22 vs. UAB Cayman Islands Tip Time is NOON CollegeSportsLive.com
L, 79-55--Tues., Nov. 28 at Virginia Tech Blacksburg, Va. 9 pm, ESPN2
L, 84-78--Thurs., Dec. 7 at Iowa State Ames, Iowa 7 p.m. ESPN2
W, 91-60--Sun., Dec. 10 Southern IOWA CITY 4 p.m. BTN
W, 90-64--Sat., Dec. 16 vs. Drake Des Moines, Iowa 1 p.m. BTN
W, 92-64--Tues., Dec. 19 Southern Utah IOWA CITY 8 p.m. BTN
W, 80-73--Fri., Dec. 22 vs. Colorado Sioux Falls, S.D. 8 p.m. BTN
W, 92-64--Fri., Dec. 29 Northern Illinois IOWA CITY 7 p.m. BTN Plus


The 18 B1G Conference Games:

Date / Opponent / Site / CENTRAL Time Tip Off / TV or Streaming Platform

L, 77-73--Sat., Dec. 2 Penn State IOWA CITY 5 p.m. BTN
L, 77-64--Mon., Dec. 4 at Indiana Bloomington, Ind. 7 p.m. BTN

Tues., Jan. 2 Michigan IOWA CITY 6 p.m. ESPN or ESPN2
Thurs., Jan. 4 Ohio State IOWA CITY 6 p.m. ESPNU
Sun., Jan. 7 at Maryland College Park, Md. 7 p.m. FS1
Thurs., Jan. 11 at Illinois Champaign, Ill. 7 p.m. FS1
Wed., Jan. 17 at Rutgers Piscataway, N.J. 6 p.m. BTN
Sat., Jan. 20 Purdue IOWA CITY 11 a.m. ESPN or ESPN2
Tues., Jan. 23 Wisconsin IOWA CITY 6 p.m. ESPN or ESPN2
Sat., Jan. 27 at Nebraska Lincoln, Neb. 7 p.m. BTN
Tues., Jan. 30 Minnesota IOWA CITY 8 p.m. BTN
Sat., Feb. 3 at Penn State University Park, Pa. 5 p.m. or 7 p.m. BTN
Tues., Feb. 6 Michigan State IOWA CITY 8 p.m. ESPN or ESPN2
Sat., Feb. 10 at Ohio State Columbus, Ohio 5 p.m. or 7 p.m. BTN
Wed., Feb. 14 at Michigan Ann Arbor, Mich. 5:30 p.m. BTN
Sat., Feb. 17 Indiana IOWA CITY 1 p.m. ESPN or ESPN2
Wed., Feb. 21 at Minnesota Minneapolis, Minn. 8 p.m. BTN
Sun., Feb. 25 Northwestern IOWA CITY 6:30 p.m. BTN

 

[ICWestfan]

Pretty favorable schedule going forward. I couldn't decide but would like to think 14-4 is possible. Probably between 5-7 losses.

 

[And1Hawk]

I see a challenging schedule where there are no automatic Ws. We can win any one of those games but lose any of them just as easily too. It’s really a shame we cost ourselves so dearly in the non-con and opening of B1G play losing to PSU & Indiana.

5 losses max from here on out if we want any chance at all to be considered for the big dance. If I were Fran I’d be asking and reminding my guys ‘how bad do you want to play’ in the NCAAs?

Fran also needs to trim the rotation... there’s little need to be playing Wagner at the 3 at this point. Love the guy but he’s just not good enough to deserve minutes there. Zero wing offensive ability. Ellingson should only play very sparraingly. Get JBO off the ball and if he’s not hitting put him on the bench because his defense is absolutely horrible. Play MD instead. Keep a tight leash on Garza until he proves he can play well against better power 5 competition. He has not proven that so far. Kreiner is a good option if Garza is a mess some nights. Get Moss to play D too.... he can do it but needs encouragement.

Team wise, commit to playing some D, rebound (box-out please) and keep the turnovers low (Cook especially and limit the lazy/sloppy passes from everyone).

 

[StormHawk42]

Crazy the season is half over already

 

[Suterman]

Pretty favorable schedule going forward. I couldn't decide but would like to think 14-4 is possible. Probably between 5-7 losses.

So you think we are going to go 12-4 from here on out? That seems extremely optimistic. I don't see that as even possible.

 

[BirdistheWord]

If we can play even remotely like the first half vs NIU, then this year could be interesting. Shooting at that percentage is not likely, but there were so few turnovers and we shared the ball like nobodies business!

 

[icwesthawk]

I see good things if Connor can play. Without Connor we don't finish at 500 in BIG play.

 

[ICWestfan]

So you think we are going to go 12-4 from here on out? That seems extremely optimistic. I don't see that as even possible.

What can I say, my glass is half full. Or if you prefer, it's not half empty or full but has beer in it.

 

[SDHawkDoc]

I would be very surprised if they can win enough at this point to get on the right side of the bubble for an at large bid. 11 B1G wins and 2 in the B1G tourney is probably the minimum they'd need. Don't see that happening.

 

[Mohawkeye]

The odd thing is I feel like only now are we starting to see a glimpse of the final product. This will be a team that finishes much stronger than it started. Too bad the NCAA no longer takes that into account. We may very well be one of the top 30 at large teams by the end of the season, but not make the tournament.

 

[lovedwatchingLester]

Long shot but I'm in. Need to keep improving game to game

 

[LaQuintaHawkeye]

Gotta love the high-roller who feels finishing out the season with a 14-2 (or better) run is actually possible.

 

[Franisdaman]

would 19-12, 10-8 get us on/near the NCAA Tournament bubble?

And/or what do we then need to do to get into the Big Dance?

I think its unanimous that another NIT invite would absolutely suck.

 

[Franisdaman]

So you think we are going to go 12-4 from here on out? That seems extremely optimistic. I don't see that as even possible.

what is interesting is how up and down all the teams are.

Examples/thoughts: Minny barely beats Drake at home; which Ohio State and N'western teams are going to show up? Will Iowa continue to share the ball like last night or will they be turnover prone?

 

[DougFHawkeye]

would 19-12, 10-8 get us on/near the NCAA Tournament bubble?

And/or what do we then need to do to get into the Big Dance?

I think its unanimous that another NIT invite would absolutely suck.

Don't think that would get us on the bubble. It will take a solid 2nd half to make the NIT.

 

[Suterman]

What can I say, my glass is half full. Or if you prefer, it's not half empty or full but has beer in it.

I sure hope you are right.

 

[And1Hawk]

would 19-12, 10-8 get us on/near the NCAA Tournament bubble?

And/or what do we then need to do to get into the Big Dance?

I think its unanimous that another NIT invite would absolutely suck.

Highly unlikely... the projected RPI would be 77 and the B1G is considered the weakest of the power 5/6 confidences this year. We have no quality wins and only bad losses on the resume so far. I think a few power 5 teams have gotten an invite in the 70s like a Syracuse but they have name recognition we do not.

Again those early games are soooooo important and playing very few 250+ RPI teams. We can’t go to a tournament and lose to ULL & SDSU folks. That can’t happen! Then lose to ISU (weakest team they have had in 6-7 years!). Then open with home loss to PSU & road loss at marginally bad Indiana.... that’s not good.

We have to get to 20-11 minimum and probably a win in the B1G tourney to get our RPI into the 50s. That’s the only way.

Lesson for Fran... schedule more RPI 150s and fewer 250+, get your team ready on Day 1 not late December and don’t go to pre-season tournaments unless you can win games. The RPI 150s are your Mountain West, MVC, type of leagues.. plenty of teams to choose from in those that are tough outs. Play someone good in game 1 too so you have to be on point from game 1.

The other key was not recognizing Daileys potential last year... and then getting him on the floor for experience and confidence. We put all our eggs in CW last year who was a great defender but horrible offensively when we had Dailey offering ability to play both ends. Then it took too long to get him on the floor this season and it’s still taking a long time to realize he is one of our best 5 players.

Dailey playing the point early and often and we win 2-3 more games and are in the tourney at years end. The margin is so slim folks!

 

[hawkfan1963]

So they are on a 5 game win streak against teams they are/were supposed to beat. Yes they are playing better but I fear the 2 non conferences losses earlier that they should have won and the Penn state loss at home will keep them out of the tournament. My guess is it will take the conference tournament championship to get in. Fran's success
in the BIG tournament isn't good.

 

[HawkAlum2002]

would 19-12, 10-8 get us on/near the NCAA Tournament bubble?

And/or what do we then need to do to get into the Big Dance?

I think its unanimous that another NIT invite would absolutely suck.

I wouldn't think so, that's the same as last year and the bubble was considered one of the weakest ever then. We also had losses to Virginia and ND to help RPI and beat ISU. This year we haven't played a single team of note (VaTech is the only potential at large but who knows) AND have bad losses already to Louisiana, SD State, Indiana, and PSU. Wins over UAB and Colorado is what we have to show the committee, and neither is even an NIT team.

 

[StormHawk42]

The B1G’s nonconference performance was trash so our “big wins” we might get won’t be as big as they normally would be. Not to mention our nonconference schedule was horrible. It will take a hell of a run in the B1G to get in. Me thinks they need at least 22 wins to even be on the bubble and probably more.

 

[HawkAlum2002]

The B1G’s nonconference performance was trash so our “big wins” we might get won’t be as big as they normally would be. Not to mention our nonconference schedule was horrible. It will take a hell of a run in the B1G to get in. Me thinks they need at least 22 wins to even be on the bubble and probably more.

Agreed. Right now the B10 is projected to have 5 teams in the dance, MSU, MInny, Purdue, Michigan and either OSU or Maryland (who I think is out now with Jackson's season ending injury). Thing is, if Michigan and OSU want to be in, they need to beat teams like Iowa. If Iowa beats them, they probably aren't tourney teams either, so the wins don't help the Hawks much It just makes the B10 look like it's a weak league full of parity, with mediocre teams beating other mediocre teams.

 

[Raptorpeeps]

12 more wins is doable. +1-2 in the BTT and we’re dancing.

The next five games are all wins.

 

[perryhawk]

would 19-12, 10-8 get us on/near the NCAA Tournament bubble?

And/or what do we then need to do to get into the Big Dance?

I think its unanimous that another NIT invite would absolutely suck.

I think 19-12 and 2 wins in the Big 10 tournament gets us there....that’s 21-13 and should include some wins against some decent RPI B10 teams, right?

 

[DodgerHawki]

would 19-12, 10-8 get us on/near the NCAA Tournament bubble?

And/or what do we then need to do to get into the Big Dance?

I think its unanimous that another NIT invite would absolutely suck.

I would say likely not for the NCAA. The boat-anchors on the schedule of Alabama State, Grambling, etc. (5 of them) will not make Iowa's RPI look good at all. Losing to South Dakota State and Louisiana Lafayette is not a good look. Iowa's wins so far are against Chicago State (343 Kenpom), Alabama State (342), Northern Illinois (242), Grambling State (326), Colorado (139), UAB (125), Southern (322), Drake (191) and Southern Utah (297). That is a hideous, awful set of non-conference wins. And losses to Indiana (88), ULL (103), South Dakota State (92) and Iowa State (86) already. There are opportunities in the Big Ten to get wins over good teams, but Iowa's non-conference performance and schedule was just so awful they would have to go 12-6 minimum plus win 1 or 2 in the conference tourney (in my opinion). I could be wrong.

 

[Franisdaman]

I think 19-12 and 2 wins in the Big 10 tournament gets us there....that’s 21-13 and should include some wins against some decent RPI B10 teams, right?

well, to get to 19 wins, it should include wins against some good B1G teams; but remember, away wins carry more weight now than home wins so if we don't have any big road wins, that could hurt us, too. Right now we don't have any good road wins, unfortunately.

 

[Franisdaman]

I would say likely not for the NCAA. The boat-anchors on the schedule of Alabama State, Grambling, etc. (5 of them) will not make Iowa's RPI look good at all. Losing to South Dakota State and Louisiana Lafayette is not a good look. Iowa's wins so far are against Chicago State (343 Kenpom), Alabama State (342), Northern Illinois (242), Grambling State (326), Colorado (139), UAB (125), Southern (322), Drake (191) and Southern Utah (297). That is a hideous, awful set of non-conference wins. And losses to Indiana (88), ULL (103), South Dakota State (92) and Iowa State (86) already. There are opportunities in the Big Ten to get wins over good teams, but Iowa's non-conference performance and schedule was just so awful they would have to go 12-6 minimum plus win 1 or 2 in the conference tourney (in my opinion). I could be wrong.

yeah and starting out 0-2 in the B1G has really dug ourselves a hole.

i just wish we knew what Iowa team was going to show up each game.

 

[perryhawk]

well, to get to 19 wins, it should include wins against some good B1G teams; but remember, away wins carry more weight now than home wins so if we don't have any big road wins, that could hurt us, too. Right now we don't have any good road wins, unfortunately.

Yep.....I could see us making a run and hearing the talking heads say, "Well they don't have any good road wins".....and then in the last few games we add one or two decent road wins. Then we get a couple in the BTT and slip in!

 

[RocknRollface]

If we can play even remotely like the first half vs NIU, then this year could be interesting. Shooting at that percentage is not likely, but there were so few turnovers and we shared the ball like nobodies business!

NIU was not playing D like the hawks will see in conference.

That was the first team in a while that didn't try to put allot of pressure on our guards.

Not sure if they're just a bad defensive team or what but they clearly didnt have much of a game plan for it.

 

[RocknRollface]

The odd thing is I feel like only now are we starting to see a glimpse of the final product. This will be a team that finishes much stronger than it started. Too bad the NCAA no longer takes that into account. We may very well be one of the top 30 at large teams by the end of the season, but not make the tournament.

Theyre just now starting to look like last years team .

I want to know what the hell happened over the summer that caused them to start so lackidasical and overconfident.

Playing ptl and Europe was a total waste of time.

 

[RocknRollface]

Moral of the story, stop playing chit teams preseason.

Wins do nothing for you and losses kill you.

 

[LaQuintaHawkeye]

Outside of winning the BTT, I don't see this year's squad sniffing the NCAA...and it will take a minor miracle to get the 17-18 wins for an NIT birth.

In the off-season Fran has to try and snag an Andre Woolridge type of transfer.

 

[Legend12]

So you think we are going to go 12-4 from here on out? That seems extremely optimistic. I don't see that as even possible.

Actually, to get to 14-4 Iowa would have to go 14-2 the rest of the way in the Big Ten.

 

[TritonHawkeye]

So you think we are going to go 12-4 from here on out? That seems extremely optimistic. I don't see that as even possible.

Actually, to get to 14-4 Iowa would have to go 14-2 the rest of the way in the Big Ten.

I think to get in the tournament the Hawks will have to go 11-5 the rest of the way with a win in the BTT.

 

[Suterman]

well, to get to 19 wins, it should include wins against some good B1G teams; but remember, away wins carry more weight now than home wins so if we don't have any big road wins, that could hurt us, too. Right now we don't have any good road wins, unfortunately.

Not only do we not have any good road wins, we don't have any good wins period. Unless we see a SEISMIC uptick in performance, this Iowa team is not an NCAA tournament team. I'm sorry, it just isn't.

 

[oneeyedjakes94]

I didn't know exhibition wins/losses counted. Talk about stretching things... lol

 

[LaQuintaHawkeye]

would 19-12, 10-8 get us on/near the NCAA Tournament bubble? (A)

And/or what do we then need to do to get into the Big Dance? (B)

I think its unanimous that another NIT invite would absolutely suck. (C)

A: no, due to the teams we've lost to in pre-conference

B: with that record we'd need 2+ BTT wins imo (depending if we are an 11-14 or a 5-10 seed)

C: would I be ecstatic? no ...but it wouldn't "absolutely suck" based on where we currently sit

 

[Suterman]

Actually, to get to 14-4 Iowa would have to go 14-2 the rest of the way in the Big Ten.

So true. Math is not my strong suit.

 

[hawkguy77]

Eight wins at home, steal two on the road, two in BTT and a dancing we I'll go.

 

[HawkLogic]

I see good things if Connor can play. Without Connor we don't finish at 500 in BIG play.

Losing an inexperienced Freshman backup PG Connor is not that big a deal. I think Connor would be pegged for 5 mpg as backup PG and Dailey can make those minutes up.

If we lose Dailey, Bohannon, Moss, or Baer, we are in big trouble.

 

[farfaraway]

Seriously. Should win...not could win but should win. Are there any games in January that we SHOULD win?