Voters switch lopsidedly to GOP, in warning for Dems...

The Tradition

HR King
Apr 23, 2002
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WASHINGTON (AP) — A political shift is beginning to take hold across the U.S. as tens of thousands of suburban voters who helped fuel the Democratic Party’s gains in recent years are becoming Republicans.

Across 31 states, about two-thirds of voters who have switched their official party registrations in the past year have switched to the Republican Party, according to voter registration data analyzed by The Associated Press. The phenomenon is playing out in virtually every region of the country — Democratic and Republican states along with cities and small towns — in the period since President Joe Biden replaced former President Donald Trump.

Nowhere is the shift more pronounced — and dangerous for Democrats — than in the suburbs. Over the last year, far more people are switching to the GOP across suburban counties from Denver to Pittsburgh. Republicans also gained ground in counties around medium-size cities such as Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; Raleigh, North Carolina; and Des Moines, Iowa.

Ben Smith, who lives in suburban Larimer County, Colorado, north of Denver, said he reluctantly registered as a Republican earlier in the year after becoming increasingly concerned about the Democrats’ support in some localities for mandatory COVID-19 vaccines, the party’s inability to quell violent crime and its frequent focus on racial justice.

“It’s more so a rejection of the left than embracing the right,” said Smith, a 37-year-old professional counselor whose transition away from the Democratic Party began five or six years ago when he registered as a libertarian.

The AP examined data from the 31 states in which voters explicitly register by political party and which make that information available to the public. Across those states, nearly 680,000 voters changed their registrations in the past year, according to L2, a political data firm.

While party switching is not uncommon, the data shows a definite reversal from the period while Trump was in office, when Democrats enjoyed a slight edge in the number of party switchers nationwide.

But over the last year, about 430,000 voters in those states shifted to the Republican Party, compared with about 240,000 who became Democrats. In another 12 states — including the electoral battlegrounds of Texas, Ohio and Virginia — L2 estimates each voter’s party affiliation using records of voting in primary elections or statistical modeling. Those estimates, based on information such as demographics, local voting patterns and registered voter surveys, suggest that the same pattern is playing out in these states, too, with roughly two-thirds of voters whose affiliations changed in the past year moving toward the Republican Party.

The migration of hundreds of thousands of voters, a small portion of the overall U.S. electorate, does not ensure widespread Republican success in the November midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress and dozens of governorships. Democrats are hoping the Supreme Court’s decision earlier this summer to overrule Roe v. Wade will energize supporters, particularly in the suburbs, ahead of the midterms.

Still, the details about party switchers present a warning for Democrats who were already concerned about the macro effects shaping the political landscape this fall.

Roughly four months before Election Day, Democrats have no clear strategy to address Biden’s weak popularity and voters’ overwhelming fear that the country is headed in the wrong direction with their party in charge. And while Republicans have offered few policy solutions of their own, the GOP has been working effectively to capitalize on the Democrats’ shortcomings.

Republicans benefited last year as suburban parents grew increasingly frustrated by prolonged pandemic-related school closures. And as inflation intensified more recently, the Republican National Committee has been hosting voter registration events at gas stations in suburban areas across swing states like Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania to link the Biden administration to record-high gas prices. The GOP has also linked the Democratic president to an ongoing baby formula shortage.

“Biden and Democrats are woefully out of touch with the American people, and that’s why voters are flocking to the Republican Party in droves,” RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel told the AP. She predicted that “American suburbs will trend red for cycles to come” because of “Biden’s gas hike, the open border crisis, baby formula shortage and rising crime.”

 

goldmom

HR Legend
Mar 29, 2002
20,505
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So many people who didn’t vote for Biden were nonetheless hopeful he’d continue to govern as a somewhat moderate deal maker as demonstrated over his Senate career. But sadly - for the country and for the Democratic Party - he hasn’t shown that trait as POTUS.
The progressive wing of the party have pushed too hard and once again gotten “over their skis”. There is a method to their “madness” but as of right now America is still going to push back.
 

StormHawk42

HR Legend
Nov 3, 2009
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Typical part of the political cycle IMO.

What makes me nervous is once R’s have complete control, they could essentially install systems that ensure they never lose again. Gerrymandering, restrictive voting laws, friendly SCOTUS that doesn’t believe in federal government, etc. The Kasichs and McCains are long gone, Mitch and Chuck aren’t far behind. The firebrands are in control now.

To be fair, Dems need to nominate better candidates and have much better messaging.
 
Last edited:
May 17, 2021
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When people are motivated by fear, most of it stoked by propaganda and outright lies, Fascism always wins.

not even progressives like the dem establishment since it is just pro corporate Republican lite (minus the violence and fascism).

the social issues are on the side of the progressives. In 1997 27% supported gay marriage and same pew research poll this year put it at 70%. 61% now support abortion rights. Etc.

party registrations don’t tell the whole story. Independents are larger every year last I read.
 

The Tradition

HR King
Apr 23, 2002
113,454
85,952
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When people are motivated by fear, most of it stoked by propaganda and outright lies, Fascism always wins.

not even progressives like the dem establishment since it is just pro corporate Republican lite (minus the violence and fascism).

the social issues are on the side of the progressives. In 1997 27% supported gay marriage and same pew research poll this year put it at 70%. 61% now support abortion rights. Etc.

party registrations don’t tell the whole story. Independents are larger every year last I read.

People aren't going to vote for social issues when they have to go to freaking Mexico to get baby formula.
 

goldmom

HR Legend
Mar 29, 2002
20,505
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When people are motivated by fear, most of it stoked by propaganda and outright lies, Fascism always wins.

not even progressives like the dem establishment since it is just pro corporate Republican lite (minus the violence and fascism).

the social issues are on the side of the progressives. In 1997 27% supported gay marriage and same pew research poll this year put it at 70%. 61% now support abortion rights. Etc.

party registrations don’t tell the whole story. Independents are larger every year last I read.
I can’t disagree but right now the independents are leaning GOP too.

When are y’all going to stop saying “fascism fascism fascism”?
Only your dumbest voters who don’t understand what fascism REALLY is are swallowing that crap. But keep it up. 🤫
 

Moral

HR Legend
Sep 29, 2017
25,404
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So many people who didn’t vote for Biden were nonetheless hopeful he’d continue to govern as a somewhat moderate deal maker as demonstrated over his Senate career. But sadly - for the country and for the Democratic Party - he hasn’t shown that trait as POTUS.
The progressive wing of the party have pushed too hard and once again gotten “over their skis”. There is a method to their “madness” but as of right now America is still going to push back.

This isn't based in the real world. This is some weord coping mechanism of yours?
 

goldmom

HR Legend
Mar 29, 2002
20,505
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If that's true, my guess is they are changing to R so they can vote out the GOP nuts during the primaries.

That’s going on for sure. It worked in the recent Illinois primary, but failed in Colorado. 😎
 

mnole03

HR Legend
Mar 20, 2005
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I was in the store on Thursday and there were maybe twelve cans of formula - all foreign brands. I dunno...is that stocked?
Only the recalled stuff is missing.
6mceyh.jpg

6mcf1v.jpg
 
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nu2u

HR Legend
Aug 10, 2006
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1. It is foolish not to acknowledge the recent registration shift in favor of the GOP.

2. A shift in voter sentiment in off years and mid-term elections in favor of the party out of power is historically normal.

3. How much the GOP's new (or switched) registration advantage effects the November, 2022 elections is uncertain.

4. Predictions 4 months out that Dem election results will be a "bloodbath" or "very bad" is pre-mature but, again, losses are historically normal.

5. Recent developments effecting voter behavior may not be fully understood or appreciated yet.
(a) The recent Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe vs. Wade may substantially drive-up Dem and Independent women voter participation above mid-term norms.
(b) Sustained or increasing inflation and cost-of-living may drive-up GOP votes from across the political spectrum.
(c) Hot button/wild card issues such as crime, gun control, J6C findings, etc. may motivate participation further.

At this point, it would be reasonable to assume that Republicans will retake the House. The battle for Senate is much closer call but slightly favor the Dems holding a majority.

The one gift that could lift the Dems prospects significantly IMO: Donald Trump announces his 2024 candidacy weeks before the November mid-term elections.