Pat Harty's Mr. Pessimist got me to thinking about whether 2021 was an abnormally bad year for Iowa's rushing attack/O-line play, or whether 2021 is, unfortunately, a typical year for a school that has created a myth about its ability to run the ball behind good O-line play. Mr. Pessimist wrote a little while ago:
Mr. Pessimist: Since 2010, Wisconsin has led the Big Ten in rushing three times, and has finished ranked third or higher in the conference in rushing nine times. Iowa, on the other hand, has finished 10th or lower in the Big Ten in rushing six times during that same 11-year stretch, and has finished no higher than fifth.
In some ways it seems like 2021 was an abnormally bad year for Iowa's O-line play. Iowa lead the league in tackles for loss allowed, and finished 120th out of 130 nationally (I don't have handy this stat for previous years, but would be interesting to compare). Iowa's YPC in conference play was 3.4, which is its 3rd worst in the last 14 years (see chart below). And to the eye test/recency test, 2021 O-line play seems to standout for the wrong reasons. But the stats might indicate that 2021 was a representative bad year for Iowa's rushing/O-line play, and that Iowa has a crummy run game/O-line play about 50% of the time.
Over the last 14 years, which goes back to 2008 so as to pick up the great Shonn Greene year, Iowa has had 6 years (1 shy of 50%) where the Hawks finished 9th or worse in YPC in Big Ten play. Iowa finished 10th this year (the 4th time in 14 years it finished 10th or worse), which is bad, even though 10th in 2021 is not as bad as 10th in 2009. So that stats suggests 2021 was more like a normal bad year for Iowa, not an aberration.
But what about Iowa's 3.4 YPC? Doesn't that suggest that this year was an abnormally bad year? It turns out that 2021 was a good year for rushing defense in the Big Ten, with 2021 being the first year since 2009 where the league average was less than 4.0 YPC in conference play. When you compare Iowa's YPC in conference play to the league YPC, it turns out that 2021 is the 7th year out of the last 14 where Iowa has been .4 YPC lower than the league average. In 2021, Iowa was .5 YPC lower than the league average, the 6th time in the last 14 years Iowa has been .5 YPC or worse than the league average. Iowa has been .4 YPC lower than the league average three out of the last four years, so 2021 is more typical than abnormal, even in recent years. Unfortunately, only 3 times in the last 14 years (2008, 2015 and 2020) has Iowa been .4 YPC or more above the league average in conference play. Perhaps Iowa's uptick in O-line recruiting and George Barnett will improve things, but recent history suggests 2021 was more like a normal bad year for Iowa's rushing attack/O-line play, not an aberration.
Conference Play Only Stats (2015 includes Big Ten Championship Game)
Mr. Pessimist: Since 2010, Wisconsin has led the Big Ten in rushing three times, and has finished ranked third or higher in the conference in rushing nine times. Iowa, on the other hand, has finished 10th or lower in the Big Ten in rushing six times during that same 11-year stretch, and has finished no higher than fifth.
In some ways it seems like 2021 was an abnormally bad year for Iowa's O-line play. Iowa lead the league in tackles for loss allowed, and finished 120th out of 130 nationally (I don't have handy this stat for previous years, but would be interesting to compare). Iowa's YPC in conference play was 3.4, which is its 3rd worst in the last 14 years (see chart below). And to the eye test/recency test, 2021 O-line play seems to standout for the wrong reasons. But the stats might indicate that 2021 was a representative bad year for Iowa's rushing/O-line play, and that Iowa has a crummy run game/O-line play about 50% of the time.
Over the last 14 years, which goes back to 2008 so as to pick up the great Shonn Greene year, Iowa has had 6 years (1 shy of 50%) where the Hawks finished 9th or worse in YPC in Big Ten play. Iowa finished 10th this year (the 4th time in 14 years it finished 10th or worse), which is bad, even though 10th in 2021 is not as bad as 10th in 2009. So that stats suggests 2021 was more like a normal bad year for Iowa, not an aberration.
But what about Iowa's 3.4 YPC? Doesn't that suggest that this year was an abnormally bad year? It turns out that 2021 was a good year for rushing defense in the Big Ten, with 2021 being the first year since 2009 where the league average was less than 4.0 YPC in conference play. When you compare Iowa's YPC in conference play to the league YPC, it turns out that 2021 is the 7th year out of the last 14 where Iowa has been .4 YPC lower than the league average. In 2021, Iowa was .5 YPC lower than the league average, the 6th time in the last 14 years Iowa has been .5 YPC or worse than the league average. Iowa has been .4 YPC lower than the league average three out of the last four years, so 2021 is more typical than abnormal, even in recent years. Unfortunately, only 3 times in the last 14 years (2008, 2015 and 2020) has Iowa been .4 YPC or more above the league average in conference play. Perhaps Iowa's uptick in O-line recruiting and George Barnett will improve things, but recent history suggests 2021 was more like a normal bad year for Iowa's rushing attack/O-line play, not an aberration.
Conference Play Only Stats (2015 includes Big Ten Championship Game)
| Year | Iowa YPC | League YPC | Difference | Iowa YPC Rank |
2008 | 4.86 | 4.004 | 0.85 | 1 |
2009 | 2.85 | 3.788 | -0.94 | 10 |
2010 | 3.81 | 4.348 | -0.53 | 7 |
2011 | 4.20 | 4.322 | -0.12 | 5 |
2012 | 3.33 | 4.319 | -0.99 | 11 |
2013 | 4.26 | 4.388 | -0.13 | 6 |
2014 | 4.03 | 4.58 | -0.55 | 9 |
2015 | 4.64 | 4.22 | 0.42 | 3 |
2016 | 4.36 | 4.264 | 0.10 | 7 |
2017 | 3.88 | 4.155 | -0.27 | 9 |
2018 | 4.26 | 4.683 | -0.42 | 8 |
2019 | 3.50 | 4.131 | -0.63 | 11 |
2020 | 4.62 | 4.209 | 0.41 | 5 |
2021 | 3.40 | 3.947 | -0.55 | 10 |
