Watched 4 NIU games this weekend

[tony0051]

If Iowa is what I believe them to be, they should beat the Huskies by 20 to 24.

NIU has almost no offense. Unless Iowa makes offensive mistakes NIU will have a tough time getting 10 pts.

Iowa should be able to pound the rock and get big plays from the TE's. Iowa should be able to score around 30 in this game.

They blitz a ton and have a quick 2nd level defensively. They are small everywhere defensively which should allow Iowa to hit them up in the middle of the field.

 

[Freyvet]

If Iowa is what I believe them to be, they should beat the Huskies by 20 to 24.

NIU has almost no offense. Unless Iowa makes offensive mistakes NIU will have a tough time getting 10 pts.

Iowa should be able to pound the rock and get big plays from the TE's. Iowa should be able to score around 30 in this game.

They blitz a ton and have a quick 2nd level defensively. They are small everywhere defensively which should allow Iowa to hit them up in the middle of the field.

No you didn't. Not even the NIU staff watched 4 of their games this weekend. WHY DO PEOPLE MAKE THIS STUFF UP?

 

[icantfindausernamethatisntused]

Which 4 games did you watch?

If one NIU fan watched our games against Iowa State, Illinois, Ohio State, and Nebraska, they'd have a much different opinion about our offense than an NIU fan that watched our games against Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Purdue.

 

[Harbinger273]

We'll see how in sync we are for the first game. Seems reasonable to believe that they are overmatched, but other factors come into play and we have had trouble with this kind of competition before early in the season. Our offense must hold up their end of the deal and like OP said play mistake free. Its a new season as well so NIU could improve based on experience. I think Iowa will pull it out, but not sure how it will look.

 

[mrF6n6]

We'll see how in sync we are for the first game. Seems reasonable to believe that they are overmatched, but other factors come into play and we have had trouble with this kind of competition before early in the season. Our offense must hold up their end of the deal and like OP said play mistake free. Its a new season as well so NIU could improve based on experience. I think Iowa will pull it out, but not sure how it will look.

I believe the first 3 possessions against Wyoming were :
3 and Out
INT
3 and Out

its football... you never know what might happen

 

[jo2knight]

No you didn't. Not even the NIU staff watched 4 of their games this weekend. WHY DO PEOPLE MAKE THIS STUFF UP?

If the games were recorded you could probably fast forward through 2/3rds of the tapes. Each game only has 7 mins of actual meaningful play time. That's why they do replays in less than an hour.

 

[Gridiron24]

We will find a way to keep it close because that's what we do in games that, on-paper, we should win.

 

[hknation]

Here's Athlon's preview, link to complete article: https://athlonsports.com/college-fo...-football-2018-huskies-preview-and-prediction

From the article.....

"Final Analysis

The Huskies have not won more than eight games in any of the last three seasons, and although the talent level, especially on defense, would indicate a possible 10-plus-win team, the schedule is a big obstacle. The good news is that the Huskies possess significant talent on both sides of the ball, enabling them to make a run at the West Division title.
NATIONAL RANKING: 74
MAC WEST PREDICTION: 1"

Maybe some help in formulating one's own NIU game prediction.

 

[mrF6n6]

We will find a way to keep it close because that's what we do in games that, on-paper, we should win.

are you implying that every other team comes out firing on all cylinders... and that its only the Iowa Hawkeyes who are incompetent and unable to perform up to expectations ?

 

[KuwaitHawk]

74th overall and 1st in the MAC West is not saying much about the MAC West. I will still take them seriously 'until the final gun'.

 

[CO_hawk]

You sir are a genius. Can you please do this for every game, so we can all place our bets for the year?

I'm going to make millions.

 

[tony0051]

Which 4 games did you watch?

If one NIU fan watched our games against Iowa State, Illinois, Ohio State, and Nebraska, they'd have a much different opinion about our offense than an NIU fan that watched our games against Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Purdue.

Eastern Michigan, Nebraska, San Diego and West Michigan

 

[LaQuintaHawkeye]

I'm gonna leave this right here...

https://iowa.forums.rivals.com/thre...e-gate-no-doubt-about-it.233537/#post-5504234

 

[Herkmeister]

No you didn't. Not even the NIU staff watched 4 of their games this weekend. WHY DO PEOPLE MAKE THIS STUFF UP?

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

The important thing to realize is that as teams gain more experience ... they tend to play better. NIU has fine coaches and fine players ... and, consequently, while their O was anemic at times last year ... they'll likely be better this year.

Of course, compared to last year, the Hawks should be improved in the passing game ... and perhaps a bit more varied in the running game. Given our RB personnel, we might be a little bit more "bruising" ... and that can take an eventual toll on the opposing D.

As for Iowa's D ... I'd expect us to be excellent up front and pretty solid on the back-end. I also look for LBs who will be playing with terrific energy.

Perhaps two of the biggest differences in the game is that Iowa's QB is likely "farther ahead" than NIU's QB ... and NIU's 2nd year QB will have to be facing off against Iowa's DL. On top of that ... the game is at Kinnick ... so if the Hawks plays well ... it will be a very raucous environment.

 

[staygoldponyboy]

We'll see how in sync we are for the first game. Seems reasonable to believe that they are overmatched, but other factors come into play and we have had trouble with this kind of competition before early in the season. Our offense must hold up their end of the deal and like OP said play mistake free. Its a new season as well so NIU could improve based on experience. I think Iowa will pull it out, but not sure how it will look.

Science!!!

N. Illinois
http://www.espn.com/college-sports/football/recruiting/school/_/id/2459/class/2018

http://www.espn.com/college-sports/football/recruiting/school/_/id/2459/class/2017

http://www.espn.com/college-sports/football/recruiting/school/_/id/2459/class/2016

IOWA
http://www.espn.com/college-sports/football/recruiting/school/_/id/2294/class/2018

http://www.espn.com/college-sports/football/recruiting/school/_/id/2294/class/2017

http://www.espn.com/college-sports/football/recruiting/school/_/id/2294/class/2016

Which team has a HOF coach?
Which team will be playing at home?
Which team has more future NFL talent?
Which team has newer state-of-the-art facilities?
Which team is in the best conference?

Bro, it's not even close. Iowa blows them away. Unless Kirk micro-manages Brian or Phil, then it's 50/50.

 

[Rustys Dad]

Iowa should absolutely not lose to them... No way no how ... We have more talent top to bottom ... We play in the toughest conference and we play at home ... We won't lose this game!

(Sidenote: I said the same thing before the N Dak St game ... )

Serious note: I do think we win this game ... I think Iowa wins 31-17.

 

[David1979]

Their offense should be better than it was last year but I don't expect them to be a great offense. They return 8 starters on offense and I maybe their entire OL. They have two good tackles.

On defense they only return 6 starters and they lost their best LB. The DE that is getting all the hype, Smith, is really a LB. The guy is small (6'1 237 lbs) and I would run right at him. They also have LBs that are pretty small. Iowa's TEs should have a field day.

Last year, Northern Illinois beat mostly crappy teams but weren't that good against good teams. The Nebraska win makes them look better than they actually were last year.

 

[TKingpin]

If they “blitz a lot” then that will be a big problem for the Hawks. Especially with Wirfs sitting down and I expect Levi to move out to RT. When BC blitzed in the Pinstripe Bowl, Stanley got sacked or pressured enough to have to throw it away. Stanley rarely had time to throw the entire game.

We really haven’t solved the blitz by the defense for several years, IMHO. Thank God OSU didn’t blitz.

 

[anon_2zMXH429BhxV1Npk]

I will never, ever underestimate an early season opponent given how close we've made some games over the years (and even lost). I go into these games cautiously optimistic most years.

That all being said, remember last year when All American #1 overall pick to be Josh Allen was going to come in and torch us for an easy win? That sure worked out as everyone feared...

 

[HerkyFan]

If they “blitz a lot” then that will be a big problem for the Hawks. Especially with Wirfs sitting down and I expect Levi to move out to RT. When BC blitzed in the Pinstripe Bowl, Stanley got sacked or pressured enough to have to throw it away. Stanley rarely had time to throw the entire game.

We really haven’t solved the blitz by the defense for several years, IMHO. Thank God OSU didn’t blitz.

I hope NIU does blitz a lot. I expect teams like isu and others will try and do the same. The sooner we are able to make teams pay for that the better off the offense will be.

 

[somebody once]

I remember this same type of chatter ahead of the 2013 NIU and the 2016 NDSU games... “We need to pound them..” “Wear them out...” “It’ll be hot and well control the ball and keep their defense on the field..” “They’re small...” “We have more depth..” “We’re more talented..” etc. etc. etc.
I don’t remember running over either of those teams and at times we made them look like the P5 team.

Then after the game we hear how we “played too conservatively”, “didn’t want to show too much” etc. When actually we miss blocks in the run game and can’t handle a blitz. Pretty easy to stop any offense that does that with regularity. Look for NIU to do just that and if they execute their game plan there will be an awful lot of frustrated Hawkeye fans.

The truth is in today’s college football world the talent gap isn’t as large as people want to believe and where there is a significant gap, schemes can mitigate it. A team that plays Iowa’s style must execute and can not overlook anyone. The margin of error is too small.

I expect NIU to give us all we want and more. I think it’ll be a close game for 3+ quarters and Iowa will need to sustain a long drive in the 4th to put it away. If they do not and give the ball back to NIU late they’ll have a chance to steal a road win.
The home crowd for the first game is usually pretty pedestrian compared to the atmosphere for recent games like PSU, OSU, Mich, Pitt. It’s just not the same Kinnick experience. Prediction: Iowa 27, NIU 17

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Eastern Michigan, Nebraska, San Diego and West Michigan

I just skimmed through the NIU vs Buffalo game last night. Their D is pretty legit ... however, they appeared to be pretty exploitable against the pass IF the QB has time to throw the ball. The mid-range stuff outside the hashes were exploited a lot ... but part of that was NIU just playing somewhat softer coverage (keeping things in front of them).

NIU won that game by a point ... and they really should have lost it ... Buffalo had to play most of the 2nd half with a back-up QB. Their starting QB was doing a pretty good job of carving up the NIU secondary.

NIU was solid against the run ... but I was also surprised at how often early down runs would go for 4 or 5 yards. On the flip side, NIU's D really tightened up on 3rd and short (at least against the run).

NIU's QB does a lot of QB runs ... many of them being designed runs. However, during pass-plays, he's a pretty quick decision maker ... and seemed to make pretty decent decisions when opting to run on those occasions too.

The NIU QB was seemingly pretty poor when throwing the long-ball. However, when he got into rhythm, he was pretty solid at distributing the shorter passes. Overall, I really wasn't terribly impressed with him as a passer - but his skill players were pretty decent at getting up-field once they had the ball in their hands. Like many MAC schools - NIU doesn't overwhelm you with size ... so they try to compensate for that with above-average speed.

I'll be very curious to see how the match-ups play themselves out in the game.

Over the next couples days ... I'll try to watch a few more NIU games too (especially ones later in the season ... to see how their QB progresses).

 

[Pepperman]

Their D is pretty legit ... however, they appeared to be pretty exploitable against the pass IF the QB has time to throw the ball.

NIU's QB does a lot of QB runs ... many of them being designed runs. However, during pass-plays, he's a pretty quick decision maker ... and seemed to make pretty decent decisions when opting to run on those occasions too.

The NIU QB was seemingly pretty poor when throwing the long-ball. However, when he got into rhythm, he was pretty solid at distributing the shorter passes.

Those three statements bother me:
1) In the first game, I hope the Hawkeye OL is able to give Stanley time.
2) LBs typically have to make the decisions and plays on a QB run. Gulp.
3) If I know anything about the Hawkeye D, it is this - they will allow NIU's QB to get into a rhythm on shorter passes.

I worry this game will be more of a struggle than we all think.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

I remember this same type of chatter ahead of the 2013 NIU and the 2016 NDSU games... “We need to pound them..” “Wear them out...” “It’ll be hot and well control the ball and keep their defense on the field..” “They’re small...” “We have more depth..” “We’re more talented..” etc. etc. etc.
I don’t remember running over either of those teams and at times we made them look like the P5 team.

The commonality I see with those seasons compared to the '18 season is that in each year, the opposing D should be quite solid. NDSU was especially stingy against the run that year.

I don't think that it is a given that the Hawks will be able to run really well against NIU ... and if that is the case, we really will have to rely upon our passing game to help set up the run (and score points). If the Hawks DO manage to run the ball well against NIU ... then I anticipate that the Hawks can play "keep away" enough against a much-improved NIU O ... that the Hawks ought to ultimately win.

However, I agree with any assertion that suggests that the game could be closer than many fans seem to anticipate.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

Those three statements bother me:
1) In the first game, I hope the Hawkeye OL is able to give Stanley time.
2) LBs typically have to make the decisions and plays on a QB run. Gulp.
3) If I know anything about the Hawkeye D, it is this - they will allow NIU's QB to get into a rhythm on shorter passes.

I worry this game will be more of a struggle than we all think.

I genuinely hope that Phil schemes things to have a defender spy on the QB. If we don't spy the QB ... they're going to convert on a lot of 3rd downs against us.

You're also correct that the Hawks like to play softer coverage on shorter passes. Thus, the Hawks are going to have to really close quick on those passes and tackle well. If we can limit the YAC (yards after catch), then that can still force NIU to drive the field in 10+ play drives. When most teams do that ... they often find ways to stall.

Another observation is that the NIU O is really "multiple" with their running plays. They do the jet-sweep action a lot ... their RB often will run the dive ... and the QB often keeps the ball on the option and runs it himself. The best "running back" on the whole team will likely be their QB. Thus, I don't mean this in any negative fashion ... but the Hawks will really have to "hit" the QB a lot ... and make him not want to keep it on the option.

 

[David1979]

I just skimmed through the NIU vs Buffalo game last night. Their D is pretty legit ... however, they appeared to be pretty exploitable against the pass IF the QB has time to throw the ball. The mid-range stuff outside the hashes were exploited a lot ... but part of that was NIU just playing somewhat softer coverage (keeping things in front of them).

NIU won that game by a point ... and they really should have lost it ... Buffalo had to play most of the 2nd half with a back-up QB. Their starting QB was doing a pretty good job of carving up the NIU secondary.

NIU was solid against the run ... but I was also surprised at how often early down runs would go for 4 or 5 yards. On the flip side, NIU's D really tightened up on 3rd and short (at least against the run).

NIU's QB does a lot of QB runs ... many of them being designed runs. However, during pass-plays, he's a pretty quick decision maker ... and seemed to make pretty decent decisions when opting to run on those occasions too.

The NIU QB was seemingly pretty poor when throwing the long-ball. However, when he got into rhythm, he was pretty solid at distributing the shorter passes. Overall, I really wasn't terribly impressed with him as a passer - but his skill players were pretty decent at getting up-field once they had the ball in their hands. Like many MAC schools - NIU doesn't overwhelm you with size ... so they try to compensate for that with above-average speed.

I'll be very curious to see how the match-ups play themselves out in the game.

Over the next couples days ... I'll try to watch a few more NIU games too (especially ones later in the season ... to see how their QB progresses).

It isn't hard to play good D against Buffalo. Just sayin'

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

A factor I hadn't considered, largely because I didn't look into it ... is also that NIU graduated a number of pretty solid skill-players after the '17 season. Thus, while they likely will be improved on O ... they're going to need to be reloading at some spots too.

Namely, here are skill players they lost ...
Huff - top RB in '17
Blake - #2 WR in '17 (currently on a NFL roster)
Beebe - #3 WR in '17 (currently on a NFL roster)
Wimann - #1 TE in '17 (currently on a NFL roster)

Skill players they return ...
Childers - #1 QB in '17
Tears - #1 WR in '17
Brown - #4 WR in '17
Wesley - #5 WR in '17 (former ISU WR)

 

[Dick Rambone]

I think Iowa wins but doesn't cover the 2 touchdown spread

 

[NorthDSMHawk]

I’ll reserve my skepticism about OP’s analysis until he links his NDSU thread from last year.

 

[mazda1]

I don't get the hype for our 0-line, especially with Wirfs out. The inside is a huge ? and now the RT is as well. We know our depth isn't where we want it to be. NIU blitzes and we have struggled for years against it. Our running backs are unproven pass blockers.

We should be able to establish the run, but I don't expect to dominate. For me ball security is still an unknown.

I believe we'll win, but I won't be shocked if we give up some big plays on the defensive side of the ball. We will likely still win, but I'd advise against betting the family farm.

 

[BigOHawk]

A factor I hadn't considered, largely because I didn't look into it ... is also that NIU graduated a number of pretty solid skill-players after the '17 season. Thus, while they likely will be improved on O ... they're going to need to be reloading at some spots too.

Namely, here are skill players they lost ...
Huff - top RB in '17
Blake - #2 WR in '17 (currently on a NFL roster)
Beebe - #3 WR in '17 (currently on a NFL roster)
Wimann - #1 TE in '17 (currently on a NFL roster)

Skill players they return ...
Childers - #1 QB in '17
Tears - #1 WR in '17
Brown - #4 WR in '17
Wesley - #5 WR in '17 (former ISU WR)

How does NIU have THREE WRs on NFL rosters from ONE class while Iowa struggles to get a high 3 star to commit??!! Grrr.....I know, I know, Copeland is recruiting better and I know we'll be much improved this fall but my goodness NIU?

 

[BigOHawk]

Iowa should absolutely not lose to them... No way no how ... We have more talent top to bottom ... We play in the toughest conference and we play at home ... We won't lose this game!

(Sidenote: I said the same thing before the N Dak St game ... )

Serious note: I do think we win this game ... I think Iowa wins 31-17.

That NDSU game had many things going against Iowa IIRC and I was there to witness a terrible, terrible loss:

• Daniels was out
• Welsh was out too
• OL shuffled, lots of missed assignments
• Pick 6 in 1st quarter did us no favors
• NDSU had about 30,000 fans there, Kinnick advantage was mitigated
• NDSU schemed and planned all offseason for this game IMO and it showed. We were confused multiple times on offense by pre snap shifting and coverages
• 11 a.m. games sometimes catch Iowa napping
• NDSU looked like a Big 10 team that day, could've been NW or Wisky for all I knew

Thanks for bringing up that game..not so much! Made my 7 year old son cry, had to teach a sports/life lesson on the way home although a long tour of the Iowa Athletics hall of fame and a Scheels purchase helped!

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

How does NIU have THREE WRs on NFL rosters from ONE class while Iowa struggles to get a high 3 star to commit??!! Grrr.....I know, I know, Copeland is recruiting better and I know we'll be much improved this fall but my goodness NIU?

Beebe was a free-agent. It's yet to be determined whether he gets retained by the Vikes.

Blake was a free-agent too. It's yet to be determined whether he gets retained by the Falcons.

Wimann was a free-agent too. He's a TE ... but NIU's head coach also claimed that he was the best TE to ever play for NIU. It's yet to be determined whether he gets retained by the Patriots.

Part of what probably helped NIU's WR chances last year was the success that Golladay had. When NFL teams trust the position unit that your program develops ... they often are more apt to give your guys a look. Iowa gets that benefit of the doubt among most of our position groups ... WR being one of the few that tends to get snubbed.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

That NDSU game had many things going against Iowa IIRC and I was there to witness a terrible, terrible loss:

• Daniels was out
• Welsh was out too
• OL shuffled, lots of missed assignments
• Pick 6 in 1st quarter did us no favors
• NDSU had about 30,000 fans there, Kinnick advantage was mitigated
• NDSU schemed and planned all offseason for this game IMO and it showed. We were confused multiple times on offense by pre snap shifting and coverages
• 11 a.m. games sometimes catch Iowa napping
• NDSU looked like a Big 10 team that day, could've been NW or Wisky for all I knew

Thanks for bringing up that game..not so much! Made my 7 year old son cry, had to teach a sports/life lesson on the way home although a long tour of the Iowa Athletics hall of fame and a Scheels purchase helped!

To complement the above ... Beathard's bum knee made him an easy target of a pretty aggressive D. Our lack of ability to run the ball kept our D on the field way too long ... and that ended up killing us at the end of the game (ultimately leading to NDSU's game-winning FG).

 

[kceasthawk]

Their offense should be better than it was last year but I don't expect them to be a great offense. They return 8 starters on offense and I maybe their entire OL. They have two good tackles.

On defense they only return 6 starters and they lost their best LB. The DE that is getting all the hype, Smith, is really a LB. The guy is small (6'1 237 lbs) and I would run right at him. They also have LBs that are pretty small. Iowa's TEs should have a field day.

Last year, Northern Illinois beat mostly crappy teams but weren't that good against good teams. The Nebraska win makes them look better than they actually were last year.

True, and you can bet that even though we smoked the bugeaters in Lincoln, the game was close most of the first half because I think Nebraska played hard the first 15 minutes or so. I doubt they approached the NIU game with the same fervor, and it cost them.

 

[kceasthawk]

That NDSU game had many things going against Iowa IIRC and I was there to witness a terrible, terrible loss:

• Daniels was out
• Welsh was out too
• OL shuffled, lots of missed assignments
• Pick 6 in 1st quarter did us no favors
• NDSU had about 30,000 fans there, Kinnick advantage was mitigated
• NDSU schemed and planned all offseason for this game IMO and it showed. We were confused multiple times on offense by pre snap shifting and coverages
• 11 a.m. games sometimes catch Iowa napping
• NDSU looked like a Big 10 team that day, could've been NW or Wisky for all I knew

Thanks for bringing up that game..not so much! Made my 7 year old son cry, had to teach a sports/life lesson on the way home although a long tour of the Iowa Athletics hall of fame and a Scheels purchase helped!

Not that we should have lost that game, but just a reminder, I believe that was NDSU's sixth consecutive road win vs a power five team, so they certainly were not intimidated going in. I'd agree that pick six really kept them motivated and in the game in the first half, almost like what happened after Hooker's pick against OSU last season. It gave the Hawks a springboard of hope.

 

[Dick Rambone]

True, and you can bet that even though we smoked the bugeaters in Lincoln, the game was close most of the first half because I think Nebraska played hard the first 15 minutes or so. I doubt they approached the NIU game with the same fervor, and it cost them.

Nebraska came out a shot the backside LBs just like Wisconsin did all day, Iowa made no adjustments against Wisconsin, BF adjusted by canning the zone blocking and man blocking and using the fullback backside to stop the blitzer , Iowa then pounded Nebraska. BF learned something from the Wisconsin loss .

 

[Pepperman]

Nebraska came out a shot the backside LBs just like Wisconsin did all day, Iowa made no adjustments against Wisconsin, BF adjusted by canning the zone blocking and man blocking and using the fullback backside to stop the blitzer , Iowa then pounded Nebraska. BF learned something from the Wisconsin loss .

I really hope that's true. Something tells me Wisconsin has watched that game tape of Iowa beating Nebraska plenty of times though. Wisconsin is going to also make adjustments, of course. But I really hope BF has a plan.

 

[ghostOfHomer777]

True, and you can bet that even though we smoked the bugeaters in Lincoln, the game was close most of the first half because I think Nebraska played hard the first 15 minutes or so. I doubt they approached the NIU game with the same fervor, and it cost them.

As for motivation ... the Huskers were embarrassed by Arkansas State ... and arguably should have lost that game. Then, they got piss-pounded against a mediocre Oregon squad ... but Oregon went conservative in the second half ... so the Huskers (falsely) felt that they made a game of it.

Then, against NIU, given the outcomes of the first 2 games, there's no way on earth that the Huskers would or could have taken the Huskies for granted. The first thing is that the Husker D was really just that bad. NIU's 2nd string QB, who ultimately lost the job to their 3rd string QB, ended up having some success against the Huskers with an efficient short-passing game ... largely exploiting the Husker LBs in coverage.

However, another factor that helped seal the deal for NIU was the fact that Tanner Lee continued his pick-passing was ... and threw NIU's secondary 2 TD passes (dual pick-sixes). Lee ended up throwing 3 picks in the game.

Against Iowa's D, the short passing game will probably not lead to too many YAC (assuming the Hawks tackle well). The bigger question will be how the Hawks defend the run.

Against Iowa's O, Stanley is not likely to throw even 1 pick six ... let alone 2.