Way Too Early Bubble Watch Rooting Interests 3/3/17

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

First - a quick recap of the action last night (only mentioning strong positive or negative outcomes):

• Iowa @ Wisconsin - We took care of business. Our RPI is at 73 with plenty of room to improve with a strong BTT showing. Now we get to the fun part...
• Houston got smoked by Cincinnati and will be eliminated from contention.
• Cal got taken to the woodshed while we were delighting in our victory. This knocks them out of the field for now and squarely on the bubble.

-------------------------------------------------
Onto Friday's games!

Evansville vs Illinois St - Illinois St currently shows as a 12, but how confident can they be if they take a bad loss? This gets tricky as we would like to see either Illinois St or Wichita St win the MVC Tourney to scoop the auto bid for two likely NCAA squads.

Bradley vs Wichita St - This follows the same logic as above. People assume the shockers are in, but they are 1-4 against the Top 50 (and 1-0 vs 51-100). If they add a bad loss, is there enough there? Again, we need either Illinois St or Wichita St to grab the auto bid; just in case they are both safely in the field.

Since this is such a light slate, I'll add a few more games of note:

Iowa St @ West Virginia - this could bump up ISU into Top 25 territory (thus providing an additional top end victory for us) and would also enhance our RPI.

Missouri St vs UNI - Again, looking for a small RPI boost.

 

[FairfIowafan1984]

First - a quick recap of the action last night (only mentioning strong positive or negative outcomes):

• Iowa @ Wisconsin - We took care of business. Our RPI is at 73 with plenty of room to improve with a strong BTT showing. Now we get to the fun part...
• Houston got smoked by Cincinnati and will be eliminated from contention.
• Cal got taken to the woodshed while we were delighting in our victory. This knocks them out of the field for now and squarely on the bubble.

-------------------------------------------------
Onto Friday's games!

Evansville vs Illinois St - Illinois St currently shows as a 12, but how confident can they be if they take a bad loss? This gets tricky as we would like to see either Illinois St or Wichita St win the MVC Tourney to scoop the auto bid for two likely NCAA squads.

Bradley vs Wichita St - This follows the same logic as above. People assume the shockers are in, but they are 1-4 against the Top 50 (and 1-0 vs 51-100). If they add a bad loss, is there enough there? Again, we need either Illinois St or Wichita St to grab the auto bid; just in case they are both safely in the field.

Since this is such a light slate, I'll add a few more games of note:

Iowa St @ West Virginia - this could bump up ISU into Top 25 territory (thus providing an additional top end victory for us) and would also enhance our RPI.

Missouri St vs UNI - Again, looking for a small RPI boost.

Isn't Iowa state ranked 25th what 8-10 teams that are first four out or last 4 in should we pay attention too? Also we should root for Iowa State beating West Virginia would be a huge win because I think they are a very good team only two teams is Kansas and West Virginia imo are teams that could make the elite 8 in the B12.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

Isn't Iowa state ranked 25th what 8-10 teams that are first four out or last 4 in should we pay attention too? Also we should root for Iowa State beating West Virginia would be a huge win because I think they are a very good team only two teams is Kansas and West Virginia imo are teams that could make the elite 8 in the B12.

If you want a list - you should be able to track between what Lunardi is posting at ESPN and then add teams from ESPN's "Bubble Watch" that are listed as "Should be In" or "Work Left To Do". Root against those teams. I'll post based on each day's slate, as sometimes our rooting interests will change when teams reach "lock status".

 

[Myvue]

iOW

First - a quick recap of the action last night (only mentioning strong positive or negative outcomes):

• Iowa @ Wisconsin - We took care of business. Our RPI is at 73 with plenty of room to improve with a strong BTT showing. Now we get to the fun part...
• Houston got smoked by Cincinnati and will be eliminated from contention.
• Cal got taken to the woodshed while we were delighting in our victory. This knocks them out of the field for now and squarely on the bubble.

-------------------------------------------------
Onto Friday's games!

Evansville vs Illinois St - Illinois St currently shows as a 12, but how confident can they be if they take a bad loss? This gets tricky as we would like to see either Illinois St or Wichita St win the MVC Tourney to scoop the auto bid for two likely NCAA squads.

Bradley vs Wichita St - This follows the same logic as above. People assume the shockers are in, but they are 1-4 against the Top 50 (and 1-0 vs 51-100). If they add a bad loss, is there enough there? Again, we need either Illinois St or Wichita St to grab the auto bid; just in case they are both safely in the field.

Since this is such a light slate, I'll add a few more games of note:

Iowa St @ West Virginia - this could bump up ISU into Top 25 territory (thus providing an additional top end victory for us) and would also enhance our RPI.

Missouri St vs UNI - Again, looking for a small RPI boost.

Iowa State is already ranked #24 this week in both the AP Top 25 and the coaches poll.

 

[StormHawk42]

OP is correct. Want ISU and UNI to win. And one of the top MVC teams losing would be good. For RPI stuff, use Jerry Palm's Palm Reader. Tells you how a team can boost its RPI that day.

 

[SDHN2013]

iOW

Iowa State is already ranked #24 this week in both the AP Top 25 and the coaches poll.

Im guessing he means RPI where ISU is #27

 

[MeetTheFerentz]

There is a lot to look for during championship week for bubble teams, but one of the most important is looking at the B1G. I think the B1G will have 7 and only 7 tourney teams. This means that in addition to doing well, Iowa needs to wish for a continued collapse by Michigan, as well as for Illinois to end their hot streak. It looks like those two will be playing in the 8-9 game of the B1G Tourney.

I believe Michigan is out with a loss at Nebraska and then a loss to Illinois. I believe Illinois is out with a loss at Rutgers. The problem will be if in the very likely scenario Illinois beats Rutgers and Mich, we'll have a hard time getting selected over them for that final bid; they also have 5 top 50 wins, as well as a higher RPI, not to mention 2 wins against us, and are also playing very well right now. At any rate, we definitely need Purdue to beat the 8-9 winner.

I'm not as optimistic as many on this board, and I still think Iowa needs to win 21 games (beat Penn St and make it to B1G Final) to get an at-large bid, and if Illinois also makes it to the Final, they might have to win it all (not impossible).

I love having this discussion, though. 5 minutes into the Indiana game, I thought this team was toast for the year. Gotta love how these young men have recovered. I just hope that if they fall to the NIT, the fans give them the same support they got in '13; they deserve it.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

There is a lot to look for during championship week for bubble teams, but one of the most important is looking at the B1G. I think the B1G will have 7 and only 7 tourney teams. This means that in addition to doing well, Iowa needs to wish for a continued collapse by Michigan, as well as for Illinois to end their hot streak. It looks like those two will be playing in the 8-9 game of the B1G Tourney.

I believe Michigan is out with a loss at Nebraska and then a loss to Illinois. I believe Illinois is out with a loss at Rutgers. The problem will be if in the very likely scenario Illinois beats Rutgers and Mich, we'll have a hard time getting selected over them for that final bid; they also have 5 top 50 wins, as well as a higher RPI, not to mention 2 wins against us, and are also playing very well right now. At any rate, we definitely need Purdue to beat the 8-9 winner.

I'm not as optimistic as many on this board, and I still think Iowa needs to win 21 games (beat Penn St and make it to B1G Final) to get an at-large bid, and if Illinois also makes it to the Final, they might have to win it all (not impossible).

I love having this discussion, though. 5 minutes into the Indiana game, I thought this team was toast for the year. Gotta love how these young men have recovered. I just hope that if they fall to the NIT, the fans give them the same support they got in '13; they deserve it.

I understand the skepticism, and in a normal year would agree, but I've spent a lot of time reviewing who is out there and I'm curious where you think the 36 at-large bids will be given if the B1G is limited to 7 automatically.

I only see 11 mid majors that are in the conversation (spread over 6 conferences) so that could be anywhere from 5-11 bids, and much more likely to be closer to 5 this year based on the dominance of those bubble teams.

Here is what we're left with for at large (add one for total):

Mid Majors: 5-11
ACC: 9
Big 12: 6
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 6 (since we are only getting 7)
Pac 12: 4
SEC: 6

That totals 42-48 possible teams for 36 bids. Right now we are right with:
Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Kansas St, TCU, Marquette, Seton Hall, Providence, Illinois, Cal, USC, Georgia, Tennessee, Nevada, Middle Tennessee, Illinois St, Houston, UT Arlington, and Rhode Island

With a few more wins (Penn St, 7v10 win, 7v2 win, 7v3 loss in semis), we'll end up with an RPI in the low 60s to mid 50s, add a Top 50 win and that doesn't count any of the above teams losing to inferior teams and being eliminated.

 

[DavenportHawk8]

I understand the skepticism, and in a normal year would agree, but I've spent a lot of time reviewing who is out there and I'm curious where you think the 36 at-large bids will be given if the B1G is limited to 7 automatically.

I only see 11 mid majors that are in the conversation (spread over 6 conferences) so that could be anywhere from 5-11 bids, and much more likely to be closer to 5 this year based on the dominance of those bubble teams.

Here is what we're left with for at large (add one for total):

Mid Majors: 5-11
ACC: 9 (8 possible 9 w/cuse)
Big 12: 6 (Im seeing 5 here)
Big East: 6 (6-7 teams possible)
Big Ten: 6 (since we are only getting 7)
Pac 12: 4 (4 max)
SEC: 6 (4 max)

That totals 42-48 possible teams for 36 bids. Right now we are right with:
Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Kansas St, TCU, Marquette, Seton Hall, Providence, Illinois, Cal, USC, Georgia, Tennessee, Nevada, Middle Tennessee, Illinois St, Houston, UT Arlington, and Rhode Island

With a few more wins (Penn St, 7v10 win, 7v2 win, 7v3 loss in semis), we'll end up with an RPI in the low 60s to mid 50s, add a Top 50 win and that doesn't count any of the above teams losing to inferior teams and being eliminated.

I think the Power 5 will get 30+ of the at-large bids. I do not see 1 mid-major that deserves an at-large bid (St marys & WSU) are the only two. Every other mid-major league is a 1 bid league no matter what happens.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

I think the committee would likely throw Illinois St, Middle Tennessee, and UT Arlington a bone if they each lost in their tournaments. Ideally Gonzaga, Wichita, Middle Tennessee, UT Arlington and Nevada all win their tournaments and don't take at-large spots.

Still a lot of work to do, but the path is clear at this point.

 

[HeRKeYHoPeFuL]

Illinois St holds against Evansville, they'll have one more shot at a bad season ending loss (tomorrow vs winner of Loyola/Southern Illinois). Still pulling for Wichita St to win the Tourney, but we could flip to rooting for Illinois St if Wichita is upset later today.

 

[DavenportHawk8]

Illinois St holds against Evansville, they'll have one more shot at a bad season ending loss (tomorrow vs winner of Loyola/Southern Illinois). Still pulling for Wichita St to win the Tourney, but we could flip to rooting for Illinois St if Wichita is upset later today.

I just don't think any of the "mid-Major" teams did anything in the non-conf to gain an at-large bid. ILL St & WSU beat no one in the non-conf. I saw where MD Tennessee St & UNC (whatever school) had some nice wins but non vs tournament caliber teams.

Mid-majors that get at-large bids usually have marquee non-conf wins (UNI one year beat LSU when they were top 10 team). WSU usually beats 2-3 top 25 times in the non-conf. Not this year.

 

[SotaHawk87]

OP, looking forward to your Saturday update.. better Have one! From what I see tomorrow Syracuse vs Ga Tech is a 50/50 for cheering but pulling for

Rutgers, Ohio State, St Johns, Texas tech, Arkansas, Florida, DePaul (doubtful), Creighton, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, and Washington (fat chance)

 

[SotaHawk87]

I say Ohio State because I want to play them, not Indiana, in the 7/10 game!

 

[Ronman]

Sorry. I don't care what slight advantage it may accord us. I can't root for clowns.