What are the biggest concerns coming into the season
- Thread starter TateToHollowayAllTheWay
- Start date
For me the biggest concern is the difficult away game schedule.
Other than the usual things everyone's been talking about--
Nathan Stanley: progress or regress?
Is he ready to carry the offense on his shoulders?
Nathan Stanley: progress or regress?
Is he ready to carry the offense on his shoulders?
It seems to me that for a while the defense has had to win the games because the offense sputters . I want the offense to become much better and much more consistent. Running the ball well and then switching to the pass and killing a drive or getting someone open in the end zone and not even looking to throw to them.
I think this season is on the offense and the offensive coaching staff.
Nate Stanley accuracy AND how he performs on the road. Those two things will determine the success of our 2019 season.
Injuries, as always, and linebackers. I didn't think anyone stood out as far as having great instincts last year. Hoping it was lack of experience and great d-line play that just overshadowed them. Hopeful a Josey Jewell type emerges this year or at least a Josey Jewell light.
O line opening up holes so rbs can get to second level also if Stanley injures thumb again pull himself and let a backup take over
I agree that I would like to see more big plays from the run game...
but what is interesting to me is...
in 2018 Iowa scored the most points of any team in the Big Ten West
Iowa 405 (31.2)
Purdue 397
Wisconsin 386
Minnesota 376
Nebraska 360
Northwestern 339 (24.2)
Illinois 312 (26.0)
and on Defense, in the Big Ten, only Michigan State gave up fewer points.
[Michigan State (17.2)]
Iowa 231 (17.8)
Wisconsin 294 (22.6)
Northwestern 325 (23.2)
Minnesota 345 (26.5)
Purdue 390 (30.0)
Nebraska 375 (31.3)
Illinois 473 (39.4)
Northwestern won the division despite scoring the fewest points per game among teams in the Big Ten West
so, its my opinion that Iowa has a good enough offense and certainly a good enough defense, to win the West.
2019 is gonna be about the desire to win football games...
especially the close ones.
gotta win the close ones
but what is interesting to me is...
in 2018 Iowa scored the most points of any team in the Big Ten West
Iowa 405 (31.2)
Purdue 397
Wisconsin 386
Minnesota 376
Nebraska 360
Northwestern 339 (24.2)
Illinois 312 (26.0)
and on Defense, in the Big Ten, only Michigan State gave up fewer points.
[Michigan State (17.2)]
Iowa 231 (17.8)
Wisconsin 294 (22.6)
Northwestern 325 (23.2)
Minnesota 345 (26.5)
Purdue 390 (30.0)
Nebraska 375 (31.3)
Illinois 473 (39.4)
Northwestern won the division despite scoring the fewest points per game among teams in the Big Ten West
so, its my opinion that Iowa has a good enough offense and certainly a good enough defense, to win the West.
2019 is gonna be about the desire to win football games...
especially the close ones.
gotta win the close ones
You point out some interesting things here. The 2018 Iowa team was quite good, finished 10th in the Sagarin ratings, which take into account margin of victory and strength of opponent. Don't need to go over each of the losses in detail, as everyone is tired of them. But 2018 will always be a mixed bag. 9 wins can never really be considered a "failure" at Iowa, but 2018 will always be a lost opportunity as well.
I don't agree that winning close games is just a matter of "wanting to" or more desire. I thought Iowa gave every last bit of effort against Wisconsin and Northwestern, and for that matter all of the losses. But Groenweg fumbles a punt and Beyer's foot hits a loose punt against Wisconsin, so Iowa turns it over twice and loses the game. That isn't desire, it's making mistakes and the other team making plays. Against Northwestern, IKM and Sargent fumble the last 2 times Iowa has the ball. Both guys were giving great effort. They fumbled. Iowa loses.
If Iowa can find the little margins in the close games this year, they have a great shot to win the division.
Yep.
It all always comes down to whether or not Iowa can get out of it's own f***ing way to win games.
I think you could almost argue that with the experience of our DLine, that simply by being double-teamed AJ will be producing. By that I mean that his presence requiring double-teams allows others on the line and the LB's to be more productive/effective.
I totally understand your point that if he's being double-teamed will be still be able to live in the backfield, but monopolizing the time of the left side of the OLines (or pullers), he'll still be making an impact.
a little reminiscent of 2014, no?
2 games to go, against Wisconsin, Iowa needed a big stop late in the game..
3rd and long, and Wisconsin gets the first down and then a touch down to go up 2 scores...
and then against Nebraska they pulled it out and pee'd all over themselves in the 4th quarter.
turn the minuses into pluses and 2019 could be a very interesting season.
Injuries, Center and Guard on offense. If our starters miss very few games like they did in 2002 and the Guards and Center positions are good this a scary good team. If this holds through the isu game and we start out 4-0 this will be a high level year. Lots of injuries or continued weakness in the interior of the OL will cost us games.
Bingo. If we can run the ball effectively, anything is possible. If not...it's gonna be a disappointing fall.
Run game probably. Only 2 B1G schools had poorer YPG last year. But, I will add a second less specific concern that honestly I can't really put my finger on. So, I'll call it:
Consistency
I really don't think there will be an area we haven't shown capability to play at a B1G championship level as a staff or players this season. I mean think about it. Can Sleep-Dalton punt absolute boomers? Can Stanley perform against top teams? Do we have coaches who've proven to game plan wins against excellent/superior talent? Do we have experience and talent at WR even? On down the line, I don't see us as suspect in any area. We don't enter '19 with one reason to doubt we can win every single game. But, every post-'09 team (save '15) seems to have given a head scratcher (or 4). Sometimes, we maybe give too much attention to being a "developmental" program and not enough attention to being a game planning program...? I maybe don't know what I'm saying here, but do you see my concern? Men aren't machine. There are going to be mistakes, etc. I expect and understand that from all coaches and teams (and humanity including myself). Another lame thought that won't entirely convey what I'm saying is there are games (regardless of opponent) where we look like we intentionally attacked certain aspects of the opponent with the precision of a surgeon and others where it looks like we ran a predetermined set of offenses and defenses with no mind for what the day's opponent does.
If I actually post this, please know I'm as confounded by my rambling as you are. I'll just wrap it up by saying it doesn't seem our best foot is always forward, and I think consistency in performance is a concern. On the low end, if a few opponents put it together, and we have a few key injuries, we could be at 4 wins. We could run the table and get into the playoffs, too.
Here is to hoping for running the table.
Consistency
I really don't think there will be an area we haven't shown capability to play at a B1G championship level as a staff or players this season. I mean think about it. Can Sleep-Dalton punt absolute boomers? Can Stanley perform against top teams? Do we have coaches who've proven to game plan wins against excellent/superior talent? Do we have experience and talent at WR even? On down the line, I don't see us as suspect in any area. We don't enter '19 with one reason to doubt we can win every single game. But, every post-'09 team (save '15) seems to have given a head scratcher (or 4). Sometimes, we maybe give too much attention to being a "developmental" program and not enough attention to being a game planning program...? I maybe don't know what I'm saying here, but do you see my concern? Men aren't machine. There are going to be mistakes, etc. I expect and understand that from all coaches and teams (and humanity including myself). Another lame thought that won't entirely convey what I'm saying is there are games (regardless of opponent) where we look like we intentionally attacked certain aspects of the opponent with the precision of a surgeon and others where it looks like we ran a predetermined set of offenses and defenses with no mind for what the day's opponent does.
If I actually post this, please know I'm as confounded by my rambling as you are. I'll just wrap it up by saying it doesn't seem our best foot is always forward, and I think consistency in performance is a concern. On the low end, if a few opponents put it together, and we have a few key injuries, we could be at 4 wins. We could run the table and get into the playoffs, too.
Here is to hoping for running the table.
You have a point. But if you look at it from the opponent's point of view it gets interesting. In 2015, Stave from Wisconsin was awful, fumbled on the Iowa goal line after tripping on the guard's foot. Iowa recovers and hold on 10-6. Wisconsin fans would say they gave away the game. Iowa fans say that team "had that little extra" to win. Maybe Iowa did, maybe they didn't. I don't know. But some years it just seems that breaks go your way, other years they don't.
Wisconsin fans absolutely feel like they gave that one away. I'm pretty sure Mississippi State fans are feeling the same way about our bowl game last year. It is frequent that fans of a team admit they "gave one away", but you rarely hear fans state their team stole one. I, for one, believe Iowa stole the Outback Bowl last year. It is not a popular opinion this board. At any rate, the above post is a good one.
Iowa 148.4 rush ypg
Purdue 136.4
Rutgers 134.1
Michigan State 124.8
Northwestern 114.9
not sure where you get your stats from, but this is according to bigten.org
https://bigten.org/confstats.aspx/2018-19/fb/confldrs?path=football
I'm going to walk out on the limb and say Nate puts it all together and has his best season. He will carry the team on his big shoulders. With a better running game we will make a run at the west division championship even with the tough road schedule.
Ding, ding, ding, we have a winner.
I think Iowa knows what they have with this team and what they will get out of them, from OL to RB to WR to TE to DL to LB to DB to ST. The biggest unknown and single most important factor is QB. We have the most experienced QB in the B1G who has shown flashes of greatness and may have a future in the NFL....but has also shown befuddling inconsistency. The success of this team in '19, in terms of W's and L's, lives and dies with Stanley.
Iowa vs. Mississippi State
Rush yards
Young 3 carries 7 yards
Kelly-Martin 5 carries 0 yards
Sargent 7 carries -3 yards
Stanley 21-31 for 214 yards 3 TD's 1 Int
Iowa wins 27-22
Yeah...and how often is that gonna happen. Not very.
A
anon_i8nzeu2gbf0ba
Guest
Iowa was the best team in the West last year, but as some others have noted, they beat themselves four freakin' times. Last year's Hawkeyes had every opportunity to match the 2015 team and go 12-0, but they kept finding ways to lose.
This year, Iowa needs to find ways to win. The talent is there. The coaching may be getting there. So if Iowa stops beating itself, 2019 could be a special season indeed.
Let's see the Hawkeyes get back to Indy and win the Big Ten title this time.
This year, Iowa needs to find ways to win. The talent is there. The coaching may be getting there. So if Iowa stops beating itself, 2019 could be a special season indeed.
Let's see the Hawkeyes get back to Indy and win the Big Ten title this time.
If an occasion calls for a personnel change, can the coaching staff recognize the need and make the appropriate change from the sidelines (instead of after a loss or two)? Can the coaching staff force a team like NW have to adjust to something/anything that they had not anticipated coming into the game?
I like our coaching staff but they had the power to prevent the nw and pu losses of 2018 from happening. Acts of God and occasional onfield dumbassery like what occurred against uw and psu I think we just have to live with.
Edit: In retrospect, the pu loss wasn't on the coaches as much as the unbelievably disgusting refs. So just nw loss was on the braintrust.
I like our coaching staff but they had the power to prevent the nw and pu losses of 2018 from happening. Acts of God and occasional onfield dumbassery like what occurred against uw and psu I think we just have to live with.
Edit: In retrospect, the pu loss wasn't on the coaches as much as the unbelievably disgusting refs. So just nw loss was on the braintrust.
And the counter to that popular counter is that Iowa was already in the backfield and would've stuffed the run anyway.
That play was doomed no matter what the Badgers did.
I have a point because it is a common theme for most of Iowa's losses regardless of what their opponents do, or go on to do, or how good or bad they are.
The only year where Iowa never really got in their own way of success in the KF era?...........That 2015 season you alluded to where we went 12-2.
Iowa stayed out of their own way just enough to make their own success and win the West. Even in both their losses,(moreso in the BTCG) it wasn't like they were playing to avoid that one mental breakdown they're always known to have in a big/important game they go on to lose.
They were just outmatched for what Stanford was doing with Christian McCaffrey at that point, and the BTCG was your typical KF "close to the vest miracle-on-grass attempt" kind of game.
It just so happened that the officials decided to be assholes and swallow their whistles on the two biggest plays of MSU's last drive.
(And that's a whole separate discussion about Iowa not needing the asshole officials to be assholes in order for Iowa to find ways to lose. We don't need them to do that.)
P.S. And normally, I'll '***' out swear words for whatever reason, but I wanted to stress the fact that the officials were actually being assholes in these instances...........you're welcome.
And scored 27 against Wisconsin and NW combined. Scoring 63 against Illinois and 48 on Minny and 42 on indiana inflated the season offense totals dramatically.
Well maybe Wisconsin and Northwestern's defenses should've let us score more.........
if you take away those 3 games you mentioned, Illinois Minnesota and Indiana... they account for 153 of the 405 points scored.
that's an average of 25.2 ppg
then take away the other 2 you mentioned, Wisconsin and Northwestern
(252-27=225)
that's an average of 28.1 ppg
in order to make this a valid point, you would then have to apply these same rules to others teams and make the comparison with Iowa.
do you agree?
For every game you show like this I will show you 4 that didn't go that way. I guess I needed to state the obvious and say "in general". Kind of like turnovers.
For all the criticism that Brian Ferentz gets (much is rightly deserved), I don't think he's gotten enough credit for that game.
That was, far and away, the best defense we played all season long, particularly their d-line. Someone pointed out the ugliness of the stats for Iowa's offense in that game. That was reminiscent of 2004 to me. Brian and the offensive staff deserve a ton of credit for realizing the running game was going to be there, and shifting to a pass-centric gameplan with just enough run plays to keep MSU honest.
I disagree that we "stole" that game because I do think the defenses were both dominant and both teams had offenses that were...inconsistent might be the best word. Iowa won that game because the coaches made better in-game adjustments than did the MSU staff. It was a far cry from the Northwestern game, when Brian and co were thoroughly outcoached by Fitz and weren't able to take advantage of a secondary that was down 3 starters.
The two keys are going to be:
1) interior line play. This is the key to consistent running game and keeping Stanley clean. If the line can make consistent running yards and force blitzes, Stanley will have a huge senior season
2) Luck/clutch play. Some teams like NW last year and 12-0 just get the bounce they need. Too often, Iowa has things bounce away from them. Sure handed RB fumbles twice in two drives, dumb plays on PR fumbles, refs blowing obvious call. Batted ball falling to ground giving opponent 1 more play to score. WR bounces ball off facemask to Defense. Iowa keeps games close which means too often, one break can end up a loss.
The defense returns enough and the offense has the players to win EVERY game on the schedule. The key for Iowa is executing.
1) interior line play. This is the key to consistent running game and keeping Stanley clean. If the line can make consistent running yards and force blitzes, Stanley will have a huge senior season
2) Luck/clutch play. Some teams like NW last year and 12-0 just get the bounce they need. Too often, Iowa has things bounce away from them. Sure handed RB fumbles twice in two drives, dumb plays on PR fumbles, refs blowing obvious call. Batted ball falling to ground giving opponent 1 more play to score. WR bounces ball off facemask to Defense. Iowa keeps games close which means too often, one break can end up a loss.
The defense returns enough and the offense has the players to win EVERY game on the schedule. The key for Iowa is executing.
I think BF has done a solid job as OC. The 2018 team was far and away better than the 16 and 17 teams as far as offensive production went. The restrictor plate has been the QB. For all the great numbers he put up, he was not good when games were on the line. I will post some numbers to support that position, but I wanted to put my support for the OC and the direction the offense has been moving first.
There were four games that the season revolved around in conference play last year. Iowa's offense scored a total of 69 points against those teams. In those four games, the offense scored a grand total of 14 points in the fourth quarter and one of those TDs came against Purdue after Hooker set them up at point blank range after an INT. In those four fourth quarters, Stanley was 25-50 for 264 yards with 0 TDs and 2 INTs.
Those games were the difference between being fourth in the West and winning the division. The offense and Stanley specifically were not up to the task in any of those games when things were on the line.
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