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What are the odds...

dadster

All-Conference
Dec 1, 2012
339
706
93
That a struggling, poor shooting Michigan State team suddenly can't miss, get all the calls and pull a W out of their butts. I'd really like to see the Hawks end their losing streak and watch Izzo blow his covid mask out in frustration.
 
That a struggling, poor shooting Michigan State team suddenly can't miss, get all the calls and pull a W out of their butts. I'd really like to see the Hawks end their losing streak and watch Izzo blow his covid mask out in frustration.

Live look at Iowa fans if MSU can't miss from 3:

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This is one of the few games we should blow out early and see the 2nd teamers play a bunch. I would love to see Perkins and Uhlis get to play alot of minutes. This board will lose its sh@t if MSU wins.
 
This is one of the few games we should blow out early and see the 2nd teamers play a bunch. I would love to see Perkins and Uhlis get to play alot of minutes. This board will lose its sh@t if MSU wins.

We lose it if we lost to Gonzaga in the title by 5.

But seeing as we are Iowa and can't have nice things I would expect a loss followed by winning 6 in a row.
 
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MSU is still a B1G team with B1G talented players and on any given day/night, anything can happen. Still I like the Hawks by 17, I think they’re plenty mad about last 2 games, as they should be.
 
We heard the "pissed off and mad about it" stuff after Minnesota, Indiana and now Illinois. Time to back it up with some more inspired play. Iowa should win. Garza should dominate in the paint as MSU has no size. MSU has shot like crap pretty much all season. Does this mean they will have some breakout game tonight? Hope not but Iowa's D can serve as a Vitamin B shot to struggling offenses. Frazier averaged 8 ppg and went for 24 so I think anything is possible when Iowa's guards and defense are involved.
 
We heard the "pissed off and mad about it" stuff after Minnesota, Indiana and now Illinois. Time to back it up with some more inspired play. Iowa should win. Garza should dominate in the paint as MSU has no size. MSU has shot like crap pretty much all season. Does this mean they will have some breakout game tonight? Hope not but Iowa's D can serve as a Vitamin B shot to struggling offenses. Frazier averaged 8 ppg and went for 24 so I think anything is possible when Iowa's guards and defense are involved.
On paper this is an Iowa win without much trouble.
But as you called out, and everyone in college ball can see, Iowa's bad defense gives hope to every team that they just might have a chance. The odds of a guy that hasn't scored much all year getting 20+ seem to be more likely against Iowa.
 
It will happen one of the two games vs MSU - hopefully not both.

Of course, there will still be the "It's only one game. No need to worry yet. We can still win the Big10 title. Flush it and move on" crowd.
 
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Here's how MSU can win this game....

1) MSU starts hitting 3s.....we know it's possible.
2) Transition baskets-MSU athletes out and running....an Iowa weakness.
3) MSU athletes D up on our perimeter guys and we go cold.
4) Some sort of sagging man defense on Luka that slows him down...not stop him.
5) They out rebound us.
6) MSU has a low number of turnovers...something they have shown they can do.

Those are the things I fear....and MSU

MSU was 8-4 prior to the COVID layoff....they are 0-2 since. The first game back they lost by 30 at Rutgers. The second game back they lost by 17 at OSU (but it was more like a 12 point game)...OSU is playing really well.

Bottom line is that MSU was out of sink after a COVID layoff and appears to be moving towards getting their footing.

I'm not a betting guy, but if I were I think I would throw some money at MSU losing but covering that point spread. I think this will be a very tough game.....and cold shooting on our part or some bad officiating could be the difference.
 
That a struggling, poor shooting Michigan State team suddenly can't miss, get all the calls and pull a W out of their butts. I'd really like to see the Hawks end their losing streak and watch Izzo blow his covid mask out in frustration.
The odds on "gets all the calls" is 100%!!
However I think Garza gets at least 35 points and the Hawks roll to a victory
 
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How Iowa could win with a degree of comfort.

1) Improved defense in transition.
2) Improved half court defense.
3) Nunge 3s start to fall.
4) Keegan's 3s start to fall.
5) JBO hits some 3s and gets fouled (assuming the fouls are called) while trying to get open shots.
6) Low turnovers.
7) At least match MSU in rebounding while limiting MSU offensive rebounds.
8) Reasonably good officiating.....that seems like to much to hope for...maybe just no really bad calls.

I do think that both Nunge and Keegan have pretty decent 3 point shots and that they will start to fall...hopefully it is tonight.

We are at that mid point in the B10 season where every team seems to know every other teams strengths and weaknesses.....adding a couple twists in a teams play/approach about now could make a huge difference.

ideas?

1) Start running a system for JBO like we did for Matt Gatens senior year?
2) A back door-baseline lob like we used to do under Tom Davis (and have done under Fran)?
3) The emergence of another player...Nunge-Keegan take their games up another notch? Tony P starts to really assert his defense and become an offensive factor either in transition or the half court?
 
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MSU (8-6, 2-6) is tied for 11th place in the B1G.

They were preseason #13 in the country and got to as high as #4 (when they were 6-0).

The last time Michigan State missed the NCAA Tournament under Tom Izzo was 1997 (24 years ago), which was his 2nd year as head coach.
 
How Iowa could win with a degree of comfort.

1) Improved defense in transition.
2) Improved half court defense.
3) Nunge 3s start to fall.
4) Keegan's 3s start to fall.
5) JBO hits some 3s and gets fouled (assuming the fouls are called) while trying to get open shots.
6) Low turnovers.
7) At least match MSU in rebounding while limiting MSU offensive rebounds.
8) Reasonably good officiating.....that seems like to much to hope for...maybe just no really bad calls.

I do think that both Nunge and Keegan have pretty decent 3 point shots and that they will start to fall...hopefully it is tonight.

We are at that mid point in the B10 season where every team seems to know every other teams strengths and weaknesses.....adding a couple twists in a teams play/approach about now could make a huge difference.

ideas?

1) Start running a system for JBO like we did for Matt Gatens senior year?
2) A back door-baseline lob like we used to do under Tom Davis (and have done under Fran)?
3) The emergence of another player...Nunge-Keegan take their games up another notch? Tony P starts to really assert his defense and become an offensive factor either in transition or the half court?
Good points Perry.

While all are not impossible, the first 2 seen unlikely given the current minutes distribution of the team. Jordan isn't going to become even an adequate defensive player at this point in his career. If he gets 30 minutes and goes 5 for 8 from 3 and gets to the line for 4 more, then they can probably survive the lack of defense.

I haven't seen anything yet that would make me think #3 is likely either, but Jack doesn't have to shoot 3s to help the offense.

I can see the merit in running a few plays to try to get Jordan some looks. Personally, my preference would be to give more of his minutes to Ulis, Perkins and Joe T. I think there's a better ROI in that approach.
 
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I will be holding my breath until the final horn. MSU has owned us since McCaffery arrived (3-14). Of course, they have owned nearly every B1G team. Would love to see some payback similar to when Lute finally buried Knight's Indiana team after several receiving several stompings.
 
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I will be holding my breath until the final horn. MSU has owned us since McCaffery arrived (3-14). Of course, they have owned nearly every B1G team. Would love to see some payback similar to when Lute finally buried Knight's Indiana team after several receiving several stompings.
They’ve owned us for much longer than when Fran took over.
 
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That a struggling, poor shooting Michigan State team suddenly can't miss, get all the calls and pull a W out of their butts. I'd really like to see the Hawks end their losing streak and watch Izzo blow his covid mask out in frustration.
I think the chances of that are pretty low. However, some of you act like these teams just have the night of their lives against the hawks and it's just bad luck. Guess what? We're a terrible defensive team. It's not lucky when a team hits 10-12 3's against us. Most of them will be wide open. However, we're the better team this year and by a pretty wide margin. I think the 9 point spread is fools gold. Hawks will win this game comfortably.
 
MSU should practice nothing but corner 3 pointers from now until tipoff. The will get at least 15 wide open looks from there like every other team we play.
 
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Yeah, MSU will play much better on O with easy transition buckets, wide open three’s, hack on D and get away with it all night while guarding JBo up in his shorts so he can’t get a three off for most of the night. They’ll let Connor have wide open looks all night, playing off of him daring him to shoot which he will instead of dribble drive and pass off to Luka, Jack, or Joe for a short shot or lay up.

This game worries me with Izzo working the refs and getting all the calls - two sets of calls at both ends of the court, hack on one end, nothing, breathe on MSU, foul. I just don’t feel good about this game.
 
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If Iowa lays an egg at home against Bitchagain State, then I'll start giving some credence to the "Fran Fade" theory.
Agree. Lose this game then we are in trouble. When was the last time Sparty didn't make the tournament? This game has to be a layup for us.
 
Not going to say "the season hinges on this game" but I think it is a critical game. If this team has the talent and aspirations we have heard about, they need to come out play with a giant chip on their shoulder. Media is rapidly jumping off the Iowa bus so circle the wagons and put a smack down on MSU. Izzo will throw the kitchen sink at Garza.
 
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