What did we learn?
Yes, we have plenty to say about #87 in this week's column.
Tom Kakert • HawkeyeReport.com
@hawkeyereport
An Iowa football season that showed so much promise seven games into the year has crumbled to the ground in the last three weeks.
With visions of a trip to Indianapolis dancing in the heads of Iowa fans, the Hawkeyes have dropped three straight contests. All three were of the punch in the gut variety with Iowa holding a lead in the fourth quarter or driving to take the lead, only to see it slip away in excruciating fashion.
Perhaps it’s the combination of believing this team was potentially headed for a special season along with the four gut punching defeats that have put Iowa fans on edge. Suddenly, Kirk Ferentz who was riding high in the middle of October, now has a vocal group of fans saying Iowa needs to make a change.
That’s the nature of sports and fans in the instant reaction world we live in with social media at our fingertips. One day you are a hero and the next day, you are bum. I always fall back to my old standard that many dislike because they view it as dismissive, Ferentz Fatigue.
Kirk Ferentz is in his 20th season leading the Iowa program. In today’s world, 20 years leading any major program at the college or professional level is extraordinarily long. If you make it to 10 years, consider yourself fortunate.
While Ferentz has jazzed things up a bit in the last couple of years with trick plays and a bit more imagination on both sides of the ball, he’s pretty much remained true to his core beliefs on the field.
At some point when it’s not going well in the W/L column, the fans get frustrated, and rightfully so. It’s not just that Iowa lost, it’s the way they lost that has fans so frustrated. We are seeing that now and even if they manage to win the last two games of the year, it’s not going to go away because of what happened the last three weeks.
I won’t put Ferentz on the hot seat just yet, but I think we all know the grand plan and hope is that someday down the road, his son Brian, takes over the program. I thought that was a given and it is probably still the most likely outcome, but it’s going to be a real hard sell if the results don’t change on the field. Going 7-5 or 8-4 and not winning the Big Ten West doesn’t scream hand the program over to someone on the staff, even if they are as talented as I think Brian Ferentz is as a coach. You only do that when you are winning ten games and playing in Indy in early December.
Now, on to other topics this week in what did we learn?
1. There was a time when Kirk Ferentz would talk on a regular basis about November being the month that his teams were geared up to play their best football.
Well, that’s not exactly the case the last two years.
From 2002-04 when Iowa was rolling. They romped in November, going 9-1.
From 2005-09, Iowa went 10-9, which is the definition of average in November.
From 2010-12, it was pretty brutal with two winless November’s in there and only two wins.
In 2013, the ship got righted a bit as Iowa went 3-1 in November, including winning their last three games. Then the next year, they cratered, hard, going 1-3.
In 2015, Iowa was perfect and then 3-1 in 2016. All seemed back to what Ferentz expected, until they went 2-2 last year, but that did include a win over Ohio State, so it provided a lot of cover.
This year it feels like November is going to be a rough one, especially if it ends up including a loss to Illinois or Nebraska or both.
2. Time to tackle the topic of the moment and that’s Noah Fant and his snap count.
First, there’s a bigger issue for the Iowa offense right now and that’s the run game, which I will get to shortly.
Second, like Ferentz saying last week that he felt like they needed to get points when he went for two with more than nine minutes left in the third quarter at Purdue, his post game explanation on why Fant’s usage and targets are down didn’t make any sense.
Iowa has a lot of two tight end packages that they can use. They also line up Fant the slot quite a bit. Given that Brandon Smith was out due to a concussion, it would seem logical that Iowa would go to more personnel groupings that would include both Fant and T.J. Hockenson. It made sense, but it didn’t happen much in the second half of the loss to Northwestern when Fant played just 9 of the 29 snaps. So, just about 1/3 of the time, one of your best receiving targets is on the field.
Third, I know the tin foil hat crew is out in full force regarding Fant and his usage and targets shrinking since Fant’s family has taken to social media to question his playing time. As much as some want to believe that is the case, it’s a hard one to make. Yeah, he only had two targets this week, but the week before he had four and the weeks prior to that he had nine and seven. This season, Fant has been targeted 52 times. T.J. Hockenson has 53 targets. Since the start of Big Ten play, Fant has been targeted 35 times, Hockenson is at 40. Basically, the target share is pretty equal.
Now, I argued a few weeks ago that both should get about ten a game if possible and Iowa’s falling short of that, but they are both getting the football thrown their direction.
Bottom line on this whole topic, yes, he needs to play more and be targeted more in the passing game.
3. Now to the Iowa running attack, which is really struggling. That’s the real headline for the offense, not snap counts for a very good and talented tight end.
Honestly, even when it’s going well, it hasn’t been all that great. Some of that could be due to Ivory Kelly-Martin battling an ankle injury all season. He’s the top back when healthy and he hasn’t been and we can’t discount that having an impact.
But, Iowa has two other good backs in Mekhi Sargent and Toren Young who should be able to make plays on the ground.
Part of this lays at the feet of the offensive line. While there have been some moving parts up front with at least one injury, this group has been good at protecting Nate Stanley, but the holes haven’t been there for the backs.
I think we were also spoiled the last few years by Akrum Wadley. He was special and the New Jersey native was great at making something out of nothing and before you knew it he was headed down the field. Last year he had ten runs of 20 yards or longer. This year, Iowa has five in ten games.
Iowa relies on the run game to set up the pass. That’s how it’s been, for the most part, for the entire Ferentz era. If it’s not there, it puts everything else off schedule and you see an offense that while productive most of the season, struggles in big spots late in games where you are looking to put away an opponent.
4. Speaking of the run game, probably the biggest surprise on Saturday afternoon at Kinnick Stadium was the way Northwestern took it to Iowa on the ground.
Iowa came into the game with one of the top defenses in the country when it comes to stopping the run, allowing 86 yards per game. Northwestern has struggled since losing Jeremy Larkin to a medical issue to run the football, averaging just 93 yards per game.
Yet, here we sit after watching Northwestern rush for 184 yards, including 165 from Isaiah Bowser. Based on the averages, Northwestern should have been around 90 yards and they doubled it. Iowa’s tackling wasn’t great, but it was also about Northwestern simply imposing their will on Iowa in the second half of the game that made the difference.
5. Time to tip the cap to a Hawkeye player and this week I’ll go with starting defensive tackle Matt Nelson. Long time fans will remember that it was quite a recruiting get when Nelson picked the Hawkeyes over a long list of very good schools. Nelson is an outstanding student and will end up going to medical school, where he has shown an interest in being a surgeon.
He’s also a very selfless teammate, moving from end to tackle to help make the defensive line stronger. He’s been Iowa’s best defensive tackle this season and is quietly having a very strong senior year.
6. One more football note and it wouldn’t be a column on Sunday without a little bowl game talk.
I know some of you have not reacted well to the three straight losses and are swearing off the team for the rest of the season (until Saturday when you will be watching again). J Bowl games are still a big deal and even if Iowa’s menu options are sliding, it’s still worth talking about.
If Iowa can right the ship in the last two weeks, I still think the Holiday Bowl would be interested. As I’ve mentioned in the past, they have wanted Iowa to return to San Diego and 8-4 might get Iowa there.
The Outback Bowl had two reps in Iowa City on Saturday. Iowa and Northwestern have both been there during this bowl contract, which allows five different teams in a six year span. Basically that tells me, the Outback folks are looking for a repeat customer who can bring fans to Tampa. It’s probably a long shot now, even at 8-4, but I’ll mention it simply because they were in Iowa City this weekend.
The Tax Slayer Bowl is likely to pick a Big Ten team, but I think it will be one of the teams from the east and Iowa’s been there done that, so take that one off the table. Since the Tax Slayer has a sharing agreement with the Music City Bowl, they won’t be selecting a Big Ten team this year.
Which brings us to the artist formerly known as the Foster Farms Bowl, now the Red Box Bowl in Santa Clara, CA. The game is played at the 49’ers stadium and would have a Big Ten team facing a Pac-12 opponent. Jerry Palm from CBS Sports has Iowa playing Oregon in this game, so this will be a game to get on your radar.
Yes, we have plenty to say about #87 in this week's column.
Tom Kakert • HawkeyeReport.com
@hawkeyereport
An Iowa football season that showed so much promise seven games into the year has crumbled to the ground in the last three weeks.
With visions of a trip to Indianapolis dancing in the heads of Iowa fans, the Hawkeyes have dropped three straight contests. All three were of the punch in the gut variety with Iowa holding a lead in the fourth quarter or driving to take the lead, only to see it slip away in excruciating fashion.
Perhaps it’s the combination of believing this team was potentially headed for a special season along with the four gut punching defeats that have put Iowa fans on edge. Suddenly, Kirk Ferentz who was riding high in the middle of October, now has a vocal group of fans saying Iowa needs to make a change.
That’s the nature of sports and fans in the instant reaction world we live in with social media at our fingertips. One day you are a hero and the next day, you are bum. I always fall back to my old standard that many dislike because they view it as dismissive, Ferentz Fatigue.
Kirk Ferentz is in his 20th season leading the Iowa program. In today’s world, 20 years leading any major program at the college or professional level is extraordinarily long. If you make it to 10 years, consider yourself fortunate.
While Ferentz has jazzed things up a bit in the last couple of years with trick plays and a bit more imagination on both sides of the ball, he’s pretty much remained true to his core beliefs on the field.
At some point when it’s not going well in the W/L column, the fans get frustrated, and rightfully so. It’s not just that Iowa lost, it’s the way they lost that has fans so frustrated. We are seeing that now and even if they manage to win the last two games of the year, it’s not going to go away because of what happened the last three weeks.
I won’t put Ferentz on the hot seat just yet, but I think we all know the grand plan and hope is that someday down the road, his son Brian, takes over the program. I thought that was a given and it is probably still the most likely outcome, but it’s going to be a real hard sell if the results don’t change on the field. Going 7-5 or 8-4 and not winning the Big Ten West doesn’t scream hand the program over to someone on the staff, even if they are as talented as I think Brian Ferentz is as a coach. You only do that when you are winning ten games and playing in Indy in early December.
Now, on to other topics this week in what did we learn?
1. There was a time when Kirk Ferentz would talk on a regular basis about November being the month that his teams were geared up to play their best football.
Well, that’s not exactly the case the last two years.
From 2002-04 when Iowa was rolling. They romped in November, going 9-1.
From 2005-09, Iowa went 10-9, which is the definition of average in November.
From 2010-12, it was pretty brutal with two winless November’s in there and only two wins.
In 2013, the ship got righted a bit as Iowa went 3-1 in November, including winning their last three games. Then the next year, they cratered, hard, going 1-3.
In 2015, Iowa was perfect and then 3-1 in 2016. All seemed back to what Ferentz expected, until they went 2-2 last year, but that did include a win over Ohio State, so it provided a lot of cover.
This year it feels like November is going to be a rough one, especially if it ends up including a loss to Illinois or Nebraska or both.
2. Time to tackle the topic of the moment and that’s Noah Fant and his snap count.
First, there’s a bigger issue for the Iowa offense right now and that’s the run game, which I will get to shortly.
Second, like Ferentz saying last week that he felt like they needed to get points when he went for two with more than nine minutes left in the third quarter at Purdue, his post game explanation on why Fant’s usage and targets are down didn’t make any sense.
Iowa has a lot of two tight end packages that they can use. They also line up Fant the slot quite a bit. Given that Brandon Smith was out due to a concussion, it would seem logical that Iowa would go to more personnel groupings that would include both Fant and T.J. Hockenson. It made sense, but it didn’t happen much in the second half of the loss to Northwestern when Fant played just 9 of the 29 snaps. So, just about 1/3 of the time, one of your best receiving targets is on the field.
Third, I know the tin foil hat crew is out in full force regarding Fant and his usage and targets shrinking since Fant’s family has taken to social media to question his playing time. As much as some want to believe that is the case, it’s a hard one to make. Yeah, he only had two targets this week, but the week before he had four and the weeks prior to that he had nine and seven. This season, Fant has been targeted 52 times. T.J. Hockenson has 53 targets. Since the start of Big Ten play, Fant has been targeted 35 times, Hockenson is at 40. Basically, the target share is pretty equal.
Now, I argued a few weeks ago that both should get about ten a game if possible and Iowa’s falling short of that, but they are both getting the football thrown their direction.
Bottom line on this whole topic, yes, he needs to play more and be targeted more in the passing game.
3. Now to the Iowa running attack, which is really struggling. That’s the real headline for the offense, not snap counts for a very good and talented tight end.
Honestly, even when it’s going well, it hasn’t been all that great. Some of that could be due to Ivory Kelly-Martin battling an ankle injury all season. He’s the top back when healthy and he hasn’t been and we can’t discount that having an impact.
But, Iowa has two other good backs in Mekhi Sargent and Toren Young who should be able to make plays on the ground.
Part of this lays at the feet of the offensive line. While there have been some moving parts up front with at least one injury, this group has been good at protecting Nate Stanley, but the holes haven’t been there for the backs.
I think we were also spoiled the last few years by Akrum Wadley. He was special and the New Jersey native was great at making something out of nothing and before you knew it he was headed down the field. Last year he had ten runs of 20 yards or longer. This year, Iowa has five in ten games.
Iowa relies on the run game to set up the pass. That’s how it’s been, for the most part, for the entire Ferentz era. If it’s not there, it puts everything else off schedule and you see an offense that while productive most of the season, struggles in big spots late in games where you are looking to put away an opponent.
4. Speaking of the run game, probably the biggest surprise on Saturday afternoon at Kinnick Stadium was the way Northwestern took it to Iowa on the ground.
Iowa came into the game with one of the top defenses in the country when it comes to stopping the run, allowing 86 yards per game. Northwestern has struggled since losing Jeremy Larkin to a medical issue to run the football, averaging just 93 yards per game.
Yet, here we sit after watching Northwestern rush for 184 yards, including 165 from Isaiah Bowser. Based on the averages, Northwestern should have been around 90 yards and they doubled it. Iowa’s tackling wasn’t great, but it was also about Northwestern simply imposing their will on Iowa in the second half of the game that made the difference.
5. Time to tip the cap to a Hawkeye player and this week I’ll go with starting defensive tackle Matt Nelson. Long time fans will remember that it was quite a recruiting get when Nelson picked the Hawkeyes over a long list of very good schools. Nelson is an outstanding student and will end up going to medical school, where he has shown an interest in being a surgeon.
He’s also a very selfless teammate, moving from end to tackle to help make the defensive line stronger. He’s been Iowa’s best defensive tackle this season and is quietly having a very strong senior year.
6. One more football note and it wouldn’t be a column on Sunday without a little bowl game talk.
I know some of you have not reacted well to the three straight losses and are swearing off the team for the rest of the season (until Saturday when you will be watching again). J Bowl games are still a big deal and even if Iowa’s menu options are sliding, it’s still worth talking about.
If Iowa can right the ship in the last two weeks, I still think the Holiday Bowl would be interested. As I’ve mentioned in the past, they have wanted Iowa to return to San Diego and 8-4 might get Iowa there.
The Outback Bowl had two reps in Iowa City on Saturday. Iowa and Northwestern have both been there during this bowl contract, which allows five different teams in a six year span. Basically that tells me, the Outback folks are looking for a repeat customer who can bring fans to Tampa. It’s probably a long shot now, even at 8-4, but I’ll mention it simply because they were in Iowa City this weekend.
The Tax Slayer Bowl is likely to pick a Big Ten team, but I think it will be one of the teams from the east and Iowa’s been there done that, so take that one off the table. Since the Tax Slayer has a sharing agreement with the Music City Bowl, they won’t be selecting a Big Ten team this year.
Which brings us to the artist formerly known as the Foster Farms Bowl, now the Red Box Bowl in Santa Clara, CA. The game is played at the 49’ers stadium and would have a Big Ten team facing a Pac-12 opponent. Jerry Palm from CBS Sports has Iowa playing Oregon in this game, so this will be a game to get on your radar.
