What happens to Russia, the region and the world if Ukraine "wins" ?

funksouljon

HR Heisman
Jan 26, 2004
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I've been thinking a lot about this.



@noleclone2 , your link is only one aspect. How bad could it be? Would Putin accept a L and stay as the President or does he get desperate at the end or does someone finally kill him? Does Russia fragment into multiple huge city states? Are there any remaining opposition party people not already "accidented" by Putin? Was looking at the map of the old Soviet Union, I bet they are perfectly content to remain independent. Russian exports are significant to many markets.
Is there someone worse who might step in? Desperate for money, does someone start to sell off some of Russian nukes? 5,977 nuclear warheads as of 2022. Thats plenty to share with some of the less desirable countries.

Wheat markets are already looking at impacting global food stability for some places.
There is already concerns about winter heating this year due to slowing energy exports.
Coal exports to China drops off, does that impact China's ability to power factories (same with European factories)?
Gold exports likely don't really impact markets, same with copper/aluminum/nickel/iron just due to size (or perhaps it does?)?

Does Putin get desperate at the very end and simply start launching in a blaze of glory? The selling off of nukes seems to be a very possible way to strike out at some enemies.

I can't see it ending in just a quite whimper.
 
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tarheelbybirth

HR King
Apr 17, 2003
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One huge question is what does China do as Russia's power fades. They are going to commit to the independence (from Russia) of the central Asian countries regardless of Putin's wishes. You KNOW they covet eastern Russia's energy reserves.
 

INXS83

HR Legend
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Jul 5, 2003
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The fear of a Russia from a traditional army standpoint has taken a beating. They still have nukes so the world will tread lightly.

I hope it gets bad enough to create a situation of an over throw of Putin
Putin will unleash chemical weapons next and then tactical nukes. By doing so, he will be universally condemned and become a hunted man.
 

Slappy Pappy

HR Heisman
Nov 24, 2007
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It's going to be like the breakup of the USSR pt.2. Without a single malevolent actor remaining, the smaller individual parts should hopefully be more amenable to adopting the reforms and political pathways to joining the EU.
 

NoleATL

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Jul 11, 2007
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I've been thinking a lot about this.




@noleclone2 , your link is only one aspect. How bad could it be? Would Putin accept a L and stay as the President or does he get desperate at the end or does someone finally kill him? Does Russia fragment into multiple huge city states? Are there any remaining opposition party people not already "accidented" by Putin? Was looking at the map of the old Soviet Union, I bet they are perfectly content to remain independent. Russian exports are significant to many markets.
Is there someone worse who might step in? Desperate for money, does someone start to sell off some of Russian nukes? 5,977 nuclear warheads as of 2022. Thats plenty to share with some of the less desirable countries.

Wheat markets are already looking at impacting global food stability for some places.
There is already concerns about winter heating this year due to slowing energy exports.
Coal exports to China drops off, does that impact China's ability to power factories (same with European factories)?
Gold exports likely don't really impact markets, same with copper/aluminum/nickel/iron just due to size (or perhaps it does?)?

Does Putin get desperate at the very end and simply start launching in a blaze of glory? The selling off of nukes seems to be a very possible way to strike out at some enemies.

I can't see it ending in just a quite whimper.
Nope, this is where China comes in.
 

funksouljon

HR Heisman
Jan 26, 2004
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Nope, this is where China comes in.


Comes in to what? Help prop up Russia? Comes in to try and pick over the Eastern area as @tarheelbybirth insinuates?

That is a scary thought about a Russian collapse opening the door for China to "we are just here to help ensure stability on our northern border" and gobble up a vastly unoccupied eastern territory which would also put them just off the coast of Alaska.
 

onlyTheObvious

HR Heisman
Jan 3, 2021
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China I doubt has the mobility to be a military presence in an area that large.

need a lot more than infantry. Beating up peasants and torturing people in prison camps isn’t going to prepare them for a battle against motivated hardened well equipped foes.
 

HawkRCID

HR All-American
Nov 7, 2018
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Putin literally made one of the biggest blunders in modern world history. I believe we are witnessing the complete downfall of Russia as a world super power, similar to the Fall of the UK empire….and it’s pretty clear to me the next century is America vs China….and it’s going to be a really weird sort of rivalry/competition because of this massive economic symbiosis between the two nations.
 

hwk23

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Nov 22, 2010
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Xi and Putin met today. My guess, China and Russia will form a stronger alliance, along with most of Asia. Russia has a lot of natural resources that will be sold to China and India, and other Asian countries, in exchange for manufacturing and other goods they no longer can get from the west. The West will be worse off for the sanctions and it will not go well in Europe. Russia will not breakup. Putin will likely still be the leader and if he’s replaced the next guy might be worse. A common criticism of Putin is he isn’t hardline enough.
 
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StormHawk42

HR Legend
Nov 3, 2009
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Xi and Putin met today. My guess, China and Russia will form a stronger alliance, along with most of Asia. Russia has a lot of natural resources that will be sold to China and India, and other Asian countries, in exchange for manufacturing and other goods they no longer can get from the west. The West will be worse off for the sanctions and it will not go well in Europe. Russia will not breakup. Putin will likely still be the leader and if he’s replaced the next guy might be worse. A common criticism of Putin is he isn’t hardline enough.
I don’t necessarily disagree. But I’m not sure Russia (or Russians) will take kindly to being China’s lap dog either. Russia has exposed itself as a paper tiger. China has no incentive to help them in any way other than getting cheap natural resources.
 

Titanhawk2

HR Legend
Jul 14, 2011
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"Wins" means back to 2019 or 2014. Not sure who believed that Russia, post USSR, was ever a super power. Putin has kept it from becoming a black hole, that is all.